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Oil majors tread cautiously in Permian shale

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 09/08/21

ExxonMobil and Chevron are ramping up drilling operations in the Permian basin of west Texas and New Mexico, with a focus on squeezing out further efficiencies as they keep a tight lid on spending.

Chevron is adding rigs and completion crews to the biggest US shale formation in the second half of this year, expecting production to surpass 600,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) by the end of the year. And ExxonMobil plans to boost Permian production by about 40,000 boe/d in the third quarter from the 400,000 boe/d produced in the second quarter. The two majors have joined other large Permian producers in being able to take advantage of a significant reduction in service prices last year when the Covid-19 pandemic struck, according to consultancy Rystad Energy. They have also been able to offset subsequent service cost inflation with additional efficiency gains this year.

"There is a general consensus among Permian operators these days that the inflection point has already been reached for well productivity performance," Rystad head of shale research Artem Abramov says, adding that there is still room for efficiency gains in drilling and completion cost structure. Getting more from less is the priority after producers were forced to drastically scale back spending and drilling during last year's market crash. And with Opec+ spare capacity yet to make it back to the market, no-one is in any rush to accelerate output.

Chevron added a completion crew in the Permian in July, and expects to bring in another before the end of this year. It also expects to add at least one or two more drilling rigs to the five that are already in place. "We are going to stay disciplined around those returns," Chevron upstream chief Jay Johnson says. The company is returning to "efficient factory drilling" after focusing on lease retention in the previous year and a half, Johnson says. But he warns that the market is still oversupplied despite the overall picture of increasing oil demand. "And that is why we are being cautious, we are being balanced, and we are going to continue to monitor the market as we continue to decide how to ramp up our activity levels in the Permian," Johnson says.

Delayed payoff

ExxonMobil's full-year capital budget will be at the lower end of its $16bn-19bn guidance range, but the Permian is one of the key regions that will see higher spending in the second half of this year. The company spent heavily on above-ground infrastructure in the early days and is seeing the benefits now, chief executive Darren Woods says. ExxonMobil boasted of "really hitting on all cylinders and getting the sorts of efficiency that we have been targeting for the last couple of years" from the Permian in terms of boosting cash flow and capital efficiency, and driving down development costs.

ExxonMobil has doubled lateral-feet-per day drilling rates compared with 2019, and recently set an industry record by drilling a 12,500-foot (3,810m) lateral well in just 12 days in the Delaware basin. Drilling rates are around three times more efficient than they were in 2019. "Another way to think about this is that the eight rigs we are running today are achieving the same lateral length as it took close to 25 rigs to drill just two years ago," senior vice-president Jack Williams says.

Faster hydraulic fracturing rates have resulted in a 40pc decline in drilling and completion costs, and lease operating expenses are also down. Drilling efficiencies were highlighted by independents in second-quarter results, including Pioneer Natural Resources, one of the largest acreage holders in the Permian. And Diamondback Energy boosted its Permian oil output guidance after wells outperformed forecasts.

Permian basin rig count

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13/05/25

Mexico industrial production contracts in March

Mexico industrial production contracts in March

Mexico City, 13 May (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production contracted by 0.9pc in March from the previous month, as declines in mining and manufacturing were only partly offset by continued growth in construction. The drop was not enough to undo the 2.2pc increase in February — the sharpest monthly expansion in four years — as manufacturers ramped up output ahead of incoming US tariffs. The March industrial production index (IMAI), published by statistics agency Inegi, was higher than Mexican bank Banorte's forecast of a 1.4pc decline. Banorte noted signs of volatility affecting manufacturing and other sectors because of a complex trade outlook. Manufacturing contracted 1.1pc in March after expanding 2.9pc in February. The impact varied across subsectors, with metal goods down 5.5pc and transportation, including auto production, down 1.1pc. Volatility may ease in the coming months as US tariff policies become clearer and Mexican officials push to preserve the country's trade edge under US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules, Banorte said. Construction expanded 0.8pc in March, following increases of 3.4pc in February and 0.5pc in January, driven by higher public investment tied to President Claudia Sheinbaum's economic plan, "Plan Mexico." Analysts see the plan as a catalyst for continued growth in construction this year, with measures including greater domestic content in public purchases, public-private participation in infrastructure projects and a target of $100bn in private infrastructure investment for 2025. These effects could be amplified by aggressive interest rate cuts from the central bank. Mining contracted by 2.7pc in March, returning to negative territory after a slight 0.1pc uptick in February. Oil and gas output also contracted 2.7pc after rising 1.0pc the month before, while non-oil mining contracted 4.3pc in March after a 0.6pc increase in February. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Namibia expects first oil in 2029-30: Official


13/05/25
13/05/25

Namibia expects first oil in 2029-30: Official

Paris, 13 May (Argus) — Namibia expects first oil and gas from its offshore oil blocks as early as 2029, according to the country's petroleum commissioner Maggy Shino. Oil and gas production is on track to begin by that time, Shino said, with a first field development plan set to be received from TotalEnergies by July. The French major is a stakeholder in the Venus block, which it estimates to contain 750mn bl. The timeline announcement comes as Namibia seeks to accelerate the path to first oil, Shino said. Windhoek is streamlining licensing processes and is encouraging industry to contribute to upstream policymaking, she told the Invest in African Energies forum today. TotalEnergies, which discovered Venus in February 2022, plans to make a decision on whether to begin the development of the field next year. Its chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said he was negotiating with the Namibian government about the development but that discussions were still at an early stage. "It's a project which faces, fundamentally, some challenges, but it's feasible," Pouyanne told analysts on the company's first-quarter earnings call in April . Speaking at the conference, TotalEnergies' senior vice president for Africa, Mike Sangster, said the three wells the company has tested at Venus have demonstrated the need for a lot of gas reinjection, and he said it will be difficult to keep the cost of development down to Pouyanne's publicly-stated $20/bl. Besides upstream investment, Namibia is encouraging investors to consider port and pipeline infrastructure with a particular emphasis on the coastal town of Lüderitz in the southwest. Namibia's new president, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, placed the country's oil and gas industries under direct presidential control the day after her inauguration in March. Although details of the restructuring have yet to emerge, some stakeholders hope the move will speed up decision making. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariff rate drops to 13.1pc after trade truce: Fitch


12/05/25
12/05/25

US tariff rate drops to 13.1pc after trade truce: Fitch

New York, 12 May (Argus) — The US tariff rate on all imports fell to 13.1pc from 22.8pc after China and the US agreed to a significant de-escalation in their trade dispute over the weekend, according to rating agency Fitch. Even so, a rate of around 13pc was last seen in 1941 and remains much higher than the 2.3pc at the end of 2024, Fitch said. The rate represents total duties as a percentage of total imports and changes, with shifts in import share by country of origin and product mix. The US effective tariff rate for China remains the highest at 31.8pc, reflecting duties imposed on China before 2 April, as well as a 10pc baseline tariff imposed on most countries. That was down from 103.6pc. Japan, Mexico, Canada and Germany, which have the next highest exports to the US, have effective tariff rates in excess of 10.5pc. As a result of the breakthrough over the weekend, the US will reduce punitive tariffs on imports from China to 30pc , with Beijing keeping in place retaliatory tariffs of 10-15pc on most US energy and agricultural commodities. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ukrainian gas imports double in May


12/05/25
12/05/25

Ukrainian gas imports double in May

London, 12 May (Argus) — Ukraine's gas imports have nearly doubled in the first 10 days of May from April, although still only the Polish and Hungarian routes are being used. Ukraine's net imports — after netting off inflows and outflows to and from Moldova — averaged 140 GWh/d on 1-10 May, nearly double the 73 GWh/d average in April, the latest available data from transmission system operators show. The increase has been driven by flows from Hungary at VIP Bereg rising to near full capacity of 103 GWh/d from 60 GWh/d, and a smaller 12 GWh/d increase from Poland ( see flows graph ). Net flows to Moldova also fell to 13 GWh/d from 23 GWh/d, leaving more gas in Ukraine. But imports would need to ramp up significantly to match the 4.6bn m³ that state-owned incumbent Naftogaz estimated would be needed over the entire summer. If Ukrainian net imports remain at 140 GWh/d until 15 October, around the typical start of the heating season, then cumulative net imports would reach around 22TWh, or around 2.1bn m³ using Ukraine's standard 10.5 kWh/m³ conversion rate. VIP Bereg is already flowing at near maximum capacity, as is the interconnection point with Poland, meaning that any additional flows will need to arrive from Slovakia at Budince or from Romania at Isaccea, both particularly expensive transit routes. Demand for third-quarter capacity along the Bereg route continues to outstrip available capacity, with the auction now in its sixth day and still not concluded. So far, Naftogaz has announced few public supply deals, although it has contracted 300mn m³ of LNG from Poland's Orlen , with some market participants saying Orlen would supply as much as 1bn m³. The firm has €410mn in funds from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development , which it hopes will finance the purchase of around 1bn m³. But it is unclear where funding for additional purchases will come from, and the government does not intend to increase household or business tariffs to cover Naftogaz's higher costs. Even if Ukraine imports as much as Naftogaz said it will need, the country could still face shortages in the winter . Ukraine started the injection season in mid-April at the lowest stock level in at least a decade , and while Naftogaz managed to restore more than half of the output it lost in February following attacks on its production infrastructure, Ukrainian production still remains well below pre-2022 levels. Hungary maintains pivotal hub role Hungary has become an increasingly important transit hub over the past year, and Ukraine's import needs have increased its prominence further. With VIP Bereg at a 99pc utilisation rate this month and continued exports northward to Slovakia, Hungary has been pulling in more gas from other sources to maintain these flows. Inflows from Serbia at Horgos, where Russian gas arrives into Hungary through Turkish Stream, rose to 244 GWh/d on 1-10 May from 223 GWh/d in April, just below the point's technical capacity of 246 GWh/d. And inflows from Austria have also increased considerably, rising to 139 GWh/d from 92 GWh/d, while receipts from Romania more than doubled to 40 GWh/d from 19 GWh/d ( see Hungarian flows graph ). Hungarian prompt prices have risen to a premium over Austria and Romania in order to attract more gas ( see prices graph ). Slovakia remains at a premium to Hungary, though, driven by the need to incentivise flows from Hungary now that Russian transit through Ukraine has ceased. Hungarian transmission tariffs remain significantly cheaper than in Slovakia or Romania, so demand for Hungarian capacity at quarterly auctions last week held strong . The bookings suggest that the recent flow configuration is set to continue in the second half of summer, with all import capacity from Serbia booked and most available capacity from Austria. The export route from Romania to Ukraine remains unpopular, not just because of the high transmission tariffs paid in Romania and Moldova, but also because of the conditional nature of the flows. An equal amount of gas must be brought into Romania at Negru Voda 1 as is exported at Isaccea 1, as they are part of the same Trans-Balkan Pipeline string. Additionally, anyone hoping to bring gas from Greece or Bulgaria up to Ukraine must secure capacity in as many as 10 or more auctions, which take place simultaneously given that the transit route crosses in and out of Moldova several times. Even one failed auction could make exports along this route impossible. By Brendan A'Hearn Hungarian DA vs nearby markets €/MWh Ukrainian net flows by point GWh Hungarian net flows by point GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Aramco sees 'steady' oil demand growth in 2025


12/05/25
12/05/25

Aramco sees 'steady' oil demand growth in 2025

London, 12 May (Argus) — Global oil demand is on course for "steady growth" this year despite uncertainties over trade, according to state-controlled Saudi Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser. "For the second quarter we are seeing resilient growth despite the impact of tariffs and the uncertainty that we are seeing in the market," Nasser said on Aramco's first-quarter earnings call today. "The fundamentals are very strong." The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated since US president Donald Trump announced a wide array of import levies in April. But the US and China today announced a deal to reduce some bilateral tariffs . And talks with other countries continue. Oil demand could increase more than currently anticipated depending on the result of trade talks, Nasser said, adding that Aramco estimates oil demand grew by 1.7mn b/d in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Asia is responsible for most of the demand growth, but there is also an uptick in the US, particularly in demand for transport fuels, Nasser said. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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