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Canada delays completion of clean fuel standard

  • Spanish Market: Biofuels, Emissions, Oil products
  • 10/11/21

Canada will not finalize its national low-carbon fuel standard before next spring, missing a December target, the country's environmental agency said today.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) still expects trading and enforcement of the federal Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) to begin as planned in early 2023, the agency said in a call in which it also presented proposed changes to credit generation under the program. The country's Renewable Fuel Regulation, a set of renewable mandates, would also end as planned at the end of 2022.

But this year's snap election and subsequent cabinet change required a delay that will shorten the amount of time for participants to generate compliance credits ahead of the 2023 start, the agency said.

The shortened time between when the program is finalized and when enforcement begins could be significant for "individual companies" but would not meaningfully change the program overall, ECCC executive director Paola Mellow said.

"When you do the math, it comes out a bit in a wash," Mellow said. "It is not a significant change in stringency at the national, global level."

Canada's CFS would become the second largest low-carbon fuel standard in North America, following California. Such programs set a declining ceiling for the carbon intensity of transportation fuels distributed in their markets. Canada's draft CFS would by 2030 reduce the carbon intensity of its transportation fuels by 13pc relative to 2016 levels.

Conventional, higher-carbon fuels incur deficits that obligated parties must offset with credits generated from the supply of lower-carbon fuels to their markets.

Limiting generation

ECCC today also proposed limiting those credits to sources more directly tied to Canada's fuel supply and not required by other legislation. That proposal would narrow eligible carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) projects to only those associated with fossil fuel production and in excess of other requirements.

Renewable fuel projects with CCUS components, including foreign projects, would instead gain benefits through an associated reduction in the carbon intensity of their products. Biofuel groups in particular worried that ECCC's original draft language would allow too much credit generation from sources unrelated to liquid transportation fuels.

British Columbia's LCFS program would continue to generate credits in addition to the national program under the new definition.

Canada plans to publish its lifecycle analysis methodology this fall, with training on the system available early next year. The system will determine how many credits and deficits each fuel will generate under the Canadian system. Each LCFS program so far has used its own, non-fungible system.

ECCC will separately develop a system to account for renewable natural gas used to produce low-carbon intensity hydrogen for use at fossil fuel facilities in summer 2022.

The agency restarted its stakeholder outreach for the CFS this month. Discussions with provinces resumed this week, with plans for additional stakeholder meetings in December, February and March.

Regulators originally planned to finalize the rule by the end of this year, with trading of credits to satisfy the new requirements beginning in 2023. The government said it does not expect deficit generation to outpace credits before 2027.

"I understand this is significant," Mellow said of the delays. "This is simply the best we could do."


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27/12/24

Shell shuts oil unit at Singapore refinery

Shell shuts oil unit at Singapore refinery

Singapore, 27 December (Argus) — Shell has shut an oil unit at the 237,000 b/d Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore to investigate a "suspected leak", said the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) and National Environment Agency (NEA) today. Shell informed the government agencies that they will have to shut one of its "oil processing units" at Pulau Bukom to facilitate investigations into a suspected leak. The exact oil processing unit cannot be confirmed, but it is a unit "used to produce refined oil products such as diesel". This means it is likely a crude distillation unit or a hydrocracking unit. Shell's initial estimates show that a few tonnes of oil products were leaked, together with cooling water discharge. Sea water is typically drawn to aid in the cooling process, according to the media release. This came after the 20 October leak at a pipeline at Pulau Bukom, when 30-40t of "slop" — or a mixture of oil and water — leaked into the sea, according to Shell. The gasoline market has shown little reaction so far with spreads being "stagnant" and "range bound", said a Singapore-based gasoline broker. But this could be because of a lack of market activity, with many traders away for holidays at the end of the year. The gasoil January-February spread last traded at $0.58/bl in backwardation at around 6:30pm Singapore time on 27 December, according to a Singapore-based gasoil broker. This marks a slight increase from an assessment of $0.55/bl in backwardation on 26 December, according to Argus pricing data. By Aldric Chew Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: SE Asian IMO2 MRs to rise on EU policy


27/12/24
27/12/24

Viewpoint: SE Asian IMO2 MRs to rise on EU policy

London, 27 December (Argus) — Rates for specialised Medium Range (MR) tankers in southeast Asia will be driven up in 2025 by changes in EU policy on deforestation, higher biofuels blending mandates, and new mandates in the aviation sector, all of which will support exports of biodiesels, feedstocks and palm oil. Demand for specialised MRs in southeast Asia is ruled by exports of palm oil to Europe and the US Gulf coast. Palm oil does not usually need to travel on IMO2 ships and can be moved on IMO3 vessels. But it is often moved as a part-cargo of between 5,000-15,000t so is often picked up by IMO2 or IMO2/3 vessels, which are more suitable as they have a higher number of segregated tanks. Kpler data show around 6.3mn t of palm oil was exported from Indonesia and Malaysia to the US Gulf and Europe in the January-November 2024 period. Palm oil deliveries from southeast Asia have been trending lower since 2020 with the product becoming less popular in Europe because of deforestation issues. On 4 December, an agreement was reached between the European Council and the European Parliament to delay the application of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by one year. This means larger companies will not be required to prove that their products, such as palm oil, did not contribute to deforestation until 30 December 2025. This has averted a potential rapid loss in palm oil exports to Europe in 2025 but there will probably be a substantial decline in exports later in the year as businesses prepare for the EUDR. In the short term, the decision to postpone the EUDR will probably boost cargo numbers heading to Europe as traders had been holding off for clear regulatory guidance. This will support freight rates for IMO2 MRs in the new year by pulling more IMO2/3s and IMO3s away from the market and by increasing the number of part cargoes available for IMO2s. Feedstock exports ramp up Indonesia and Malaysia also export many specialised products that require IMO2s, such as waste based feedstocks palm oil mill effluent (POME), palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) and used cooking oil (UCO), as well as finished biodiesels like Ucome. Kpler puts exports of these products to Europe at around 2.8mn t in the first 11 months of 2024, with POME cargoes making up 42pc of all shipments or around 1.2mn t. POME was included in Annex IX Part A of the EU's renewable energy directive (RED), meaning member states can count it twice towards their renewable energy goals. Exports of feedstocks and biodiesels to Europe will probably rise in 2025 as blending mandates rise and because of a reduction in the carryover of emissions tickets in Germany and the Netherlands. Argus estimates European demand for biodiesel Pomeme to rise by around 36pc on the quarter in first three months of 2025 to around 3.5mn litres. Higher requirements for biofuels and feedstocks in Europe should push up demand for products like POME, PFAD, and UCO from Malaysia and Indonesia and support higher IMO2 demand in southeast Asia. But this could be tempered by an Indonesian ruling to include an export permit for POME and PFAD that requires participants to fulfil their cooking oil domestic market obligation. SAF mandates begin in Europe Exports of HVO and SAF from Singapore to Europe also make up part-cargo demand for IMO2 MRs. Argus forecasts European HVO demand will rise by 85pc on the quarter to 2,582mn l in the first three months of 2025. New 2pc SAF mandates in the EU and UK in 2025 will provide a sizable rise in SAF demand. This should spur a jump in cargoes loading from Singapore — driving up demand for part-cargo space on IMO2 MRs. By Leonard Fisher-Matthews Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Policy doubts hit Australia's biofuel sector


27/12/24
27/12/24

Viewpoint: Policy doubts hit Australia's biofuel sector

Sydney, 27 December (Argus) — Australia's biofuels sector has garnered significant interest during the first 2½ years of the current federal Labor government, but uncertainty over key policy support measures has stymied investment and led developers to question whether 2025 will be a year of reform. Labor secured its first majority government since 2007 in the mid-2022 election and subsequently pledged to cut Australia's greenhouse gas emissions by 43pc on 2005 levels by 2030. But the country is not on track to meet this ambitious target because of slow progress decarbonising its electricity and transport sectors. Biofuels have become increasingly popular, given decarbonising hard-to-abate transport industries is seen as key to reaching the 2030 goal. Canberra has committed to a low carbon liquid fuels (LCLF) standard, which the industry views as crucial to enabling investment in processing, refineries and new feedstock crops. In its May 2024 budget, the federal government expressed a desire to develop sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel (HVO) industries. The outcomes of consultations are expected to be released imminently. On the demand side, a regulatory impact analysis of the costs and benefits associated with mandates for LCLF has been promised, but no timeframe has been released. Domestic refiners Ampol and Viva, as well as BP at its former Kwinana refinery, have expressed interest in biofuel production but all require certainty on demand and supply-side support mechanisms. Australian bioenergy developer Jet Zero and a consortium including major airlines aim to build a 113mn litres/yr plant in the northern part of Queensland state, but initial engineering for the concept has not yet been completed. The consortium plans to convert bioethanol from domestic agricultural byproducts like sugarcane molasses into SAF and HVO through the alcohol-to-jet pathway, with production expected to start in 2027. Jet Zero is also planning to produce SAF through the Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) production pathway in a 50:50 joint venture with Aperion Bioenergy. But the project, which is still in its feasibility stage, is facing hurdles in pricing the feedstock offtake agreements or term contracts. Complicating the picture, heavy transport is now showing greater signs of electrification, as demonstrated by iron ore producer Fortescue's major order for new electric haul trucks. Regardless, the introduction of new safeguard mechanism laws requiring large emitters to reduce pollution has led Australia's fuel companies to increase HVO sales, with 500,000l contracts now signed on a regular basis despite the higher costs. Australian coal mining firm Stanmore has tested a 20pc HVO blend at its Bowen basin Poitrel mine, demonstrating an increasing acceptance of biofuels by customers. Ampol and Viva both sell fatty acid methyl esters (Fame) based biofuel blends at 5pc, 10pc and 20pc. Ampol has two projects in the pipeline: a co-processing facility that would supply up to 60mn l/yr by 2026 and the Brisbane renewable fuels joint venture, which would be a larger project of 0.5bn-1bn l/yr and is due for a final investment decision by late 2025. Viva has been less forthcoming about its plans for biofuel production since it announced a new biofuel blending venture at its 120,000 b/d Geelong refinery in 2023. There will be a federal election no later than mid-May 2025 and both major parties are keen to enhance their green image while supporting regional communities and manufacturing jobs. New regulatory support is crucial if Australia is to transition from supplying significant quantities of feedstock for biofuels to other countries, particularly tallow and canola seed, to producing its own renewable fuels. Australia's increasing reliance on imported oil products and foreign crude, along with a worsening geopolitical backdrop, has started to raise concerns in Canberra. This could be the deciding factor in whether the government will create the required regulatory environment for a local biofuels industry to thrive. By Tom Major and Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US naphtha market poised for change


26/12/24
26/12/24

Viewpoint: US naphtha market poised for change

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — US Gulf coast naphtha supplies accumulated in the last half of 2024 amid faltering demand, with gasoline blenders representing a higher profile buying sector, but a pending refinery closure is set to tighten the market. Demand for all naphtha grades was much weaker coming into December because of a bearish gasoline outlook and as elevated octane prices dampened naphtha demand. Poor refinery margins encouraged refiners to run minimally, cutting back on refiner demand as well. Gasoline blenders' demand for naphtha dominated in 2024, which highlighted stronger naphtha prices in visible trades. Prices for good quality, low sulphur N+A naphtha into the gasoline blend pool averaged about 10-15¢/USG above generic reformer feedstock naphtha. Naphtha sellers were also keen to export, which moved larger volumes without engaging in volatile domestic spot markets. US naphtha exports this year through mid-December were up by over 50pc to average 272,730 b/d from a year prior, according to Vortexa data. From November to mid-December, naphtha departures from the US were up on the year by 66pc to 312,800 b/d. Despite overall increased exports in 2024, weakened Asia Pacific and European naphtha markets in the latter half of December diminished arbitrage opportunities. Heavy virgin naphtha (HVN) differentials to Nymex RBOB hovered in the mid-to-stronger 30s¢/USG discounts in the first half of December, compared with upper Nymex RBOB -40s¢/USG observed in the same period last year. However, these higher differentials were attributed more to the lower Nymex RBOB pricing basis than market strength. Comparative cash prices hovered around 160¢/USG year on year, despite a 10¢/bl hike in differentials in 2024. Supply, demand changes in store A major supply change in the Gulf coast naphtha market should tighten the ample supply of naphtha by February. LyondellBasell is on schedule to begin a staggered shutdown of its 264,000 b/d refinery in Houston, Texas, in January. The last crude distillation unit (CDU) at the site is expected to shut by February. The refiner is a steady supplier of premium quality HVN with very low sulphur, which is typically sold into the gasoline blending market. Depending on production rates, LyondellBasell, also known as Houston Refining (HRC) in naphtha circles, can load 10-15 barges of the premium quality HVN a month. However, Gulf coast naphtha remains well-supplied. ExxonMobil's third CDU at its 609,000 b/d Beaumont, Texas, refinery started operations in 2023, adding more naphtha production to the region. Naphtha exports were also significant on the demand front in 2024, despite Gulf coast naphtha export opportunities to Venezuela being curbed again on 18 April. US sanctions on oil trades to Venezuela were eased in October 2023, but reimposed by April this year due to fresh political conflict. Naphtha exports to Venezuela are currently restricted to joint-venture partners such as Chevron and Reliance. Some participants hope the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump will re-address oil trading with Venezuela, keeping this an item to watch in 2025. US naphtha exports to Venezuela averaged 57,600 b/d in 2024, up from 11,100 b/d during 2023, according to Vortexa, on relaxation of Venezuela sanctions from October 2023 through May 2024. Meanwhile, naphtha exports out of the Gulf coast were still focused on shipments to South America, led by Brazil and Colombia. Exports to Brazil averaged 48,600 b/d in 2024, up by 68pc from 2023 while naphtha arrivals in Colombia averaged 36,600 b/d in 2024, up by 36pc from 2023. Colombia buys light naphtha from the US for use as diluent and sells full-range naphtha out of Mamonal port to the US. By Daphne Tan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Unified CO2 market remains in distance


26/12/24
26/12/24

Viewpoint: Unified CO2 market remains in distance

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — Washington state's carbon market enters 2025 on steadier ground than it stood on for much of the past year, but still faces hurdles before it is part of a larger North American market. Washington's cap-and-invest program has weathered a year of highs and lows between advancing its ambitions to link with the Western Climate Initiative and operating through much of the year under threat of repeal in the November state elections. The state Department of Ecology director Laura Watson began the state's quest to link with the WCI last year , as regulators looked to the larger, more liquid market to potentially temper the higher-than-expected prices over the first year of the market in 2023. Washington Carbon Allowances (WCAs) for December 2023 delivery surged as high as $70/t last year, according to Argus assessments. But the state has clinched several wins for its program this year. State lawmakers were able to pass a bill to smooth out several areas of potential incompatibility with the WCI earlier this year, along with California and Quebec agreeing to move forward into formal linkage talks in March . But a repeal effort, initiative 2117, seeking to remove the state's cap-and-invest program dampened prices and forward movement on linkage since January. WCAs for December 2024 delivery fell to the lowest price to date for the program at $30.25/t on 4 March, according to Argus assessments, as uncertainty over the future of the program quieted market participation. State voters backed the cap-and-invest program in November with 62pc against the repeal effort, but months of uncertainty has cost the state time and linkage progress as the WCI awaited the November results. Additionally, while Washington started its own linkage rulemaking in April to align the program with changes planned for the WCI, finishing it requires the joint market first finalize its own changes. The linkage logjam has left market participants feeling that the state's momentum is stalled for the moment, even as perception of the state's eventual joining remains a question of "when" not "if." Ecology says it remains in communication with the WCI members and is evaluating the impact of California's new rulemaking timeline. California has indicated over this year that it does not intend to focus fully on linkage until its current rulemaking is complete. Ecology estimates it will adopt its new rules in fall 2025, with the earliest the state could expect a linkage agreement in late 2025. Washington must still complete further steps required by state law before any linkage agreement can proceed, including an environmental justice assessment and a final evaluation of a potential joint market under criteria set by its Climate Commitment Act, along with public comment. California and Quebec must also conduct their own evaluations to comply with respective state and provincial laws. If this timing works out, Ecology would be part of joint auctions starting in 2026. Compounding the process is the potential threat posed by incoming president-elect Donald Trump, who is likely to try to reverse major environmental regulations and commitments. Trump sought ultimately unsuccessful litigation in his first administration to sever the link between Quebec and California in 2019. The administration pursued the case on the grounds that California's participation violated federal authority to establish trade and other agreements with foreign entities under Article I of the US Constitution, which sets out the role of the federal and state powers in commerce and agreements with foreign powers. Both California and Washington have undergone preparations in recent months to gird themselves for a legal fight with the incoming administration, and that may add further scrutiny to linkage for both states going forward, said Justin Johnson, a market expert with the International Emissions Trading Association. "I think that it will require them to be more vigilant about the process they use and making sure they dot their i's and cross their t's because I think that there will be some folks in the federal administration who would like to see that not happen," Johnson said. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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