German government “overestimates” H2 imports

Germany's government overestimates the potential for green hydrogen imports, and should focus more on domestic and decentralised production to ensure sufficient hydrogen is in the system by 2030, a recent study suggested.

Research institute Fraunhofer Umsicht, in a study carried out with Wuppertal Institute and research institute IW, said that by 2030, the only realistic transport option for importing green hydrogen — produced by electrolysis on the basis of renewable power — is trucks. But this would necessitate a large number of journeys, as a result diminishing the environmental credibility of green hydrogen.

Germany's new government should therefore, until 2030, focus more on pushing domestic green hydrogen production, and the decentralised production of hydrogen close to consumers.

To allow for large-scale hydrogen pipeline imports by 2030, Germany would need by then to have either converted existing gas pipelines, or built new hydrogen pipelines, including connections to neighbouring countries.

This is not a technical challenge, the researchers said. But taking into account permission and planning procedures, it is unlikely that more than a few isolated pipelines will be on line by then. And this is disregarding possible problems with public acceptance, the researchers warned.

The researchers expect that by 2030, there will be only "isolated" cases of pure hydrogen imports by pipeline. And the option of large-scale pipeline imports of ammonia as a hydrogen carrier appears "unlikely".

Some imports of hydrogen blended into gas grids are a possibility, but at a limited scale given potential technical problems.

Shipping hydrogen similarly is not an option until 2030, the study said. Some limited shipping of ammonia as a carrier, or of a liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC) will be possible, but not at a large scale given the lack of port infrastructure, including for instance, facilities for separating the hydrogen, the researchers said.

Importing liquified hydrogen by ship is also unlikely before 2030, as the equivalent ships so far exist mainly as prototypes.

By contrast, transporting hydrogen by trucks will be a feasible option for both gaseous and liquid hydrogen by 2030, according to the study.

The serious drawback of this option is the number of required transports. Assuming imports of 44TWh of compressed green hydrogen (CGH2), this would necessitate 1.2mn truck journeys every year, the researchers warned. Importing 96TWh would necessitate 2.5mn truck journeys.

Transporting hydrogen through ammonia or an LOHC, which would allow for more volume, will be a limited option, given the small number of liquifying capacities and ammonia production capacities, according to the report.

Caretaker economy minister Peter Altmaier this week said that Germany could produce about 12.5TWh of hydrogen by 2030, requiring around 20TWh of green power.

The ministry forecasts green hydrogen use at 37TWh in Germany by 2030. Overall hydrogen use in Germany is estimated at 90-110TWh in 2030, with the government explicitly including the alternative option of using other low-carbon hydrogen technologies such as "blue" hydrogen, made from natural gas from which the carbon is sequestered.

Germany has signed hydrogen import partnerships with a number of countries. The country's H2Global import scheme is set to launch the first tenders this year or early next year.

By Chloe Jardine