Goldman Sachs says November oil price fall 'excessive'

Spanish Market: Crude oil
22/11/21

US bank Goldman Sachs is sticking to its forecast that Brent will average $85/bl this quarter, arguing that this month's decline in oil prices has been driven by an "excessive wall of worries" and has "overshot" the actual fundamental risks.

Front-month Ice Brent crude futures slipped below $79/bl at the end of last week, having approached $87/bl during intraday trading on 25 October. A new wave of Covid-19 cases sweeping Europe has prompted fresh lockdown restrictions in several countries. This — combined with reports of a potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release in the US and elsewhere, and concerns over China's economic growth and its property market — has weighed on prices, according to Goldman Sachs. But in its view, the fall has "far overshot the actual fundamental risks due to low trading volume", the bank said in a note to investors.

"Our pricing model shows that the $8/bl price decline since late October is equivalent to the market pricing in a 4mn b/d combined hit to demand or increase in supply over the next three months," the bank said. "This would be ... equivalent to a 100mn bl government stock release as well as a 1.75mn b/d hit to demand due to the current Covid resurgence."

Goldman Sachs points out that this would be a much bigger SPR release than is reportedly under consideration and a larger Covid impact on demand than last winter when vaccination rates were significantly lower than they are now. The bank also said that while its tracking of Chinese oil demand shows a drop in demand in recent weeks, it remains up year on year.

"Net, low liquidity has left the oil market pricing a record large SPR stock release, aggressive lockdowns in Europe and a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth," Goldman Sachs said. "We therefore view the move as excessive, especially as the oil market remains in a large deficit, and reiterate our $85/bl 4Q21 average forecast."

The bank said inventory data point to an imbalance in supply and demand of around 2mn b/d over the last four weeks. "This magnitude of deficit is in fact on its own sufficient to absorb the current perceived headwinds to the oil bull thesis, with lower prices in fact reducing the odds of a strategic release," it said.

By James Keates

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14/11/24

Cop: EU ETS volatility problem for corporate CCS case

Baku, 14 November (Argus) — Price fluctuations in the EU emissions trading system (ETS) make it difficult for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects to attract finance, delegates at a UN Cop 29 climate conference side event in Baku, Azerbaijan, heard today. Fluctuations in the EU ETS price make it more difficult to model the support provided to CCS projects through avoided compliance costs, law firm Latham & Watkins partner Jean-Philippe Brisson said. These ups and downs are "very difficult for corporates", Japanese bank MUFG director Yukimi Shimura said. The benchmark front-year EU ETS contract has closed at an average of €66.20/t ($69.82/t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) so far this year in Argus assessments, compared with €85.30/t CO2e last year. While carbon pricing is an "absolute must" for CCS, if ETS cost avoidance is your only revenue stream it is very difficult to convince financials or board members to support projects, Swiss cement major Holcim vice president Pavan Chilukuri said, as the long-term viability of projects is not guaranteed. Additional funding is therefore needed to accelerate project implementation, Chilukuri said. This could be in the form of revenues from carbon dioxide removal credits — generated when plants run on biogenic energy and the carbon captured — or carbon contracts for difference. The CCS hub concept — where a number of sites capturing CO2 are located near each other to make use of the same transportation and storage infrastructure — can also help to limit costs, he said. But hubs come with their own cross-chain risks, Shimura said, including uncertainty surrounding liability for issues such as delays. The UK government — which is developing two CCS clusters — is doing an "excellent job" to minimise such risks, Shimura said. But more needs to be done in the US and Asia, with a role to be played by governments, she said. Most CCS activity remains concentrated in the US because incentives there are very strong and fixed for 12 years, Brisson said, referring to the $85/t tax credit for CCS offered under the country's Inflation Reduction Act. But even this is now "not good enough", Shimura said, as inflation has pushed costs up since the figure was set. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA sees wider oil market surplus next year

14/11/24

IEA sees wider oil market surplus next year

London, 14 November (Argus) — The IEA is predicting a global oil supply surplus of over 1mn b/d next year, which it says will provide "much-needed stability" to the market. The Paris-based agency's latest Oil Market Report (OMR) shows a 1.15mn b/d supply surplus next year, the highest since it first started projecting supply and demand levels for 2025 in April this year. It is 40,000 b/d higher than its estimate last month. "With supply risks omnipresent, a looser balance would provide some much-needed stability to a market upended by the Covid pandemic, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, most recently, heightened unrest in the Middle East," the IEA said. The IEA's projected supply surplus could be much higher if Opec+ members push ahead with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts from January over a 12-month period. But this is not guaranteed. Weaker-than-expected demand has already forced the Opec+ members to delay their plan to start increasing output by three months. Opec+ ministers are set to decide on their output policy for 2025 and beyond in a meeting on 1 December. The IEA's oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next remain below 1mn b/d — a steep drop compared with 2mn b/d last year and 2.5mn b/d in 2022. For this year, the IEA has raised its oil demand growth projection by 60,000 b/d to 920,000 b/d, mostly because of higher-than-expected consumption in Europe. Its forecast for next year has been nudged down by 10,000 b/d to 990,000 b/d compared with last month's OMR. Much of the slowdown in global consumption centres on China, where the economy is not growing as fast as it once did. The IEA has kept its oil demand growth for China unchanged at 150,000 b/d for this year, but this is far below the 710,000 b/d it was forecasting in January. The agency said Chinese oil demand contracted for a sixth straight month in September, pushing consumption in the third quarter 270,000 b/d below year-earlier levels. For next year, the IEA has lowered its Chinese demand growth forecast by 30,000 b/d to 190,000 b/d. China's slowing oil demand is also due to an increased uptake of electric vehicles, LNG-powered trucks and high-speed rail, the IEA said. On global supply, the IEA has trimmed its growth estimate for this year by 20,000 b/d to 640,000 b/d. But for next year, it sees supply growth accelerating to more than 2mn b/d, led by the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined by 47.5mn bl in September to their lowest level since January. It also said preliminary data show stocks fell further in October. By Aydin Calik Supply and demand balance Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku

13/11/24

Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku

Montevideo, 13 November (Argus) — Argentina's government today withdrew its delegation from the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The country's foreign affairs ministry confirmed to Argus that the delegation had been told to leave the event, which began on 11 November and will run through 22 November. No reason was given for the decision, but it fits the general policies of President Javier Milei, who has expressed skepticism about climate change. Milei eliminated the country's environment ministry shortly after taking office in December 2023. He is also pursuing investment to monetize oil and gas reserves, with a focus on the Vaca Muerta unconventional formation. Vaca Muerta has an estimated 308 trillion cf of natural gas and 16bn bl of oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In October, the government created the Argentina LNG division with a plan to involve private companies and the state-owned YPF to produce and export up to 30mn metric tonnes (t)/yr of LNG by 2030. It wants to export 1mn bl of crude. The plans are closely linked to a new investment framework, known as RIGI, that will provide incentives for large-scale investments. The administration is also pushing hard for investment in critical minerals, including copper and lithium. Argentina has the world's second-largest lithium resources, estimated at 22mn t by the US Geological Survey. It has copper potential that the RIGI would help tap. The government has not specified if pulling out of Cop 29 means Argentina will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which Argentina ratified in 2016. The country's nationally determined contribution calls for net emissions not to exceed 359mn t of CO2 by 2030. This represents a 21pc reduction of emissions from the maximum reached in 2007. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

No sign of peak in CO2 from fossil fuels: Report

13/11/24

No sign of peak in CO2 from fossil fuels: Report

London, 13 November (Argus) — Carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to hit a fresh record high of 37.4bn t in 2024, with "no sign" that these have peaked, a team of scientists said today in the 2024 Global Carbon Budget report. Total CO2 emissions are projected to reach 41.6bn t in 2024, up from 40.6bn t in 2023, which includes emissions of around 4.2bn t from land-use change, the report found. It also estimates the global carbon budget remaining before the 1.5°C temperature limit set out in the Paris climate agreement is "breached consistently over multiple years". The remaining carbon budget "has almost run out", the report found. There is a 50pc chance that warming will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels "consistently in about six years", the report found. There is uncertainty around the estimates, largely owed to the effects of other greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as methane and nitrous oxide, it noted. The Paris accord seeks to limit a rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above a pre-industrial average, and preferably to 1.5°C. This year is on track to be the hottest on record , the World Meteorological Organisation said on 11 November — the opening day of the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. And drought conditions have helped to reverse a recent downward trend in CO2 emissions from land-use change — such as deforestation — in 2024. Those emissions are set to rise in 2024, after falling by 20pc in the past decade, the report found. Permanent CO2 removals from reforestation and planting new trees is "offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions", it added. And the report authors noted that technology-based carbon removals — typically engineered, rather than nature-based — are at current levels only able to account for one-millionth of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Projections for the highest-emitting countries — China, the US and India — are mixed. China's emissions are projected to increase by 0.2pc in 2024, although the report noted that the range means they could decrease. US emissions are set to drop by 0.6pc, while India's are projected to rise by 4.6pc this year. The Global Carbon Budget report — which will be peer-reviewed — is produced annually by an international team of more than 120 scientists. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Developing nations eye sub-targets in finance goal

13/11/24

Cop: Developing nations eye sub-targets in finance goal

Baku, 13 November (Argus) — The finance goal for developing countries under negotiation at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, must include a core public finance target from developed countries, with fund allocation floors for least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing states (Sids), delegates from developing countries said today. The goal, the so-called new collective and quantified goal (NCQG), must include a core public finance provision target by developed countries based on a burden sharing agreement, and a fund mobilisation target, said regional alliance the African Group of Negotiators' (AGN) lead co-ordinator for finance Richard Sherman. The goal should address mitigation — action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — and also adaptation and loss and damage, he said. Adaptation refers to adjustments to avoid global warming effects, while loss and damage describes the unavoidable and irreversible effects of such change. The goal needs to offer "predictable finance" for adaptation and loss and damage for small economies with more limited resources, and recognise the "special case of Sids", said Samoa's environment minister and chair of the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster. He said the amount to be agreed at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku for developing countries' climate finance should include "minimum allocation floors" of $39bn/yr for SIDs and $220bn/yr for LDCs. Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine said parties should make sure no finance supporting development of fossil fuels is counted in the new goal. AGN reiterated today that it wants a climate finance commitment of $1.3 trillion/yr by 2030, mostly through concessional instruments and grants. The NCQG follows on from the current $100bn/yr target, which is broadly recognised as inadequate. Developed nations surpassed the goal by $15.9bn in 2022, but it was missed in 2020 and 2021, according to the OECD. AGN contests it has never been met . Negotiations on the NCQG have begun in Baku, but are in the early stages with developed countries unwilling to commit to a figure, a delegate said. A group of leading Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) estimated yesterday that they could increase climate financing to $120bn/yr by 2030 for low- and middle-income countries. The group, comprising the World Bank and nine other MDBs including the European Investment Bank, hope to leverage an additional $65bn/yr from the private sector. MDBs accounted for around 40pc of the $115.9bn in climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries to developing nations in 2022, according to the OECD. The role of MDBs is crucial as increased climate ambition can only be met with increased finance, said Chile's environment minister Maisa Rojas. But Fiji's deputy prime minister Biman Prasad said the increase coming from MDBs is not going to translate into "additional finance unless there is a clear agreement at this Cop". By Bachar Halabi and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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