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Viewpoint: Politics loom large in Med crude market

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 30/12/21

The availability of light sweet crude in the Mediterranean will rest on Libya's ability to overcome its production problems next year, while regional refiners may have to contend with limited sour supplies.

Libya's state-owned NOC had aimed to increase its oil output to 1.45mn b/d in 2021, after a ceasefire agreement in 2020 ended over a year of hostilities and a months-long blockade on crude exports. But the country's political situation has remained fragile this year and a number of infrastructure and labour issues have prevented NOC from achieving its target. Argus estimates that Libya produced just 1.12mn b/d of crude in November.

Libyan oil minister Muhammad Aoun said that the country's production was as high as 1.25mn-1.3mn b/d recently and that it now aims to produce 1.4mn b/d of crude by the middle of 2022. But this new target may prove an uphill challenge too, given the unexpected disruption that Libya's oil sector has faced in recent weeks. More than 300,000 b/d of crude production from four fields was shut in the western part of the country on 20 December, including output from El Sharara, Libya's largest field. NOC subsequently declared force majeure at the Zawia and Mellitah terminals, and told Argus on 25 December that output had fallen to 880,000 b/d.

The shutdowns — which NOC attributed to an internal dispute within the Petroleum Facilities Guard — came just before Libya's first presidential election was postponed. The election had been due to take pace on 24 December, but 48 hours before the vote the country's electoral commission HNEC recommended a month-long postponement, saying inadequate legislation had resulted in the absence of a final candidates' list. A successful election would have laid the foundations for NOC to secure much-needed investment to repair infrastructure. But for the time being, the company must continue to operate in a climate of political instability.

Should Libya succeed in raising its crude output in 2022, the extra supply would likely be directed to its core European customers and create increased competition for western neighbour Algeria. Argus tracking show the share of Algerian Saharan Blend crude exports heading to northwest Europe and the Mediterranean was 70pc in January-November this year, up from 64pc and 63pc in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Sour options

In terms of sour crude supply, a decision by Iraqi state-owned marketer Somo to stop exporting Basrah Light from January 2022 could impact trade flows into Europe. Argus tracking indicate that total Basrah exports to northwest Europe and the Mediterranean averaged 438,000 b/d in January-November, with Basrah Light making up the smallest share of the three Basrah grades at 24pc. The figure excludes volumes sent to Sidi Kerir in Egypt, which can remain in storage or load for Europe or the Americas.

It remains to be seen what Mediterranean refiners will do next year to make up for the lack of Basrah Light. Some may choose to ramp up purchases of Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy, but those preferring a lighter slate could look to replace Basrah Light with alternatives from other Mideast Gulf producers. Russian Urals may benefit from the absence of Basrah Light, although its gravity is closer to Basrah Medium.

Mediterranean refiners seeking sour supplies will have greater choice if and when US sanctions against Iranian exports are lifted. A new round of talks aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear deal began on 27 December. Sanctions on Iran's oil sector were reimposed in 2018 after the US unilaterally exited the deal. A return of Iranian barrels to the market in 2022 could weigh on the price of other Mideast Gulf supplies.


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30/04/25

Repsol sees Spanish refineries back to normal in a week

Repsol sees Spanish refineries back to normal in a week

Madrid, 30 April (Argus) — Repsol said it expects its five Spanish refineries to return to normal operations within a week following Monday's nationwide power outage. The company confirmed that power was restored to all its refineries on Monday evening, allowing the restart process to begin. It will take three days to restart the crude distillation units and 5-7 days to restart the secondary conversion units, with hydrocrackers taking the longest, according to chief executive Josu Jon Imaz. A momentary and as-yet unexplained drop in power supply on the Spanish electricity grid caused power cuts across most of Spain and Portugal, disrupting petrochemical plants and airports, as well as refineries. Imaz noted that Repsol was fortunate that its refineries avoided damage from petroleum coke formation and other solidification processes during the shutdown. Repsol's 220,000 b/d Petronor refinery in Bilbao was the first to restart, thanks to electricity imports from France, he said. State-controlled petroleum reserves corporation Cores has temporarily reduced Spain's obligation to hold 92 days of oil product consumption as strategic reserves by four days, mitigating potential supply issues from the outage. Imaz declined to speculate on the cause of the power outage. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers


29/04/25
29/04/25

Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers

Washington, 29 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has offered to offset the 25pc tariff on foreign-made auto parts, scheduled to start on 3 May, and to exempt auto parts from any additional tariffs they face from other import taxes imposed in recent months. Trump, who today announced the change in tariffs ahead of a political rally in Michigan, a key US car manufacturing state, cast his decision in terms of giving US automakers a reprieve from his tariff policies. But as in other cases when he changed his mind on tariffs, the US auto industry will still face a substantial burden from import taxes imposed since Trump took office. Trump's 25pc tariffs on foreign cars went into effect on 3 April, and a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts was scheduled to go into effect on 3 May. Under an executive order Trump signed today, the auto makers can be partially refunded the cost of the tariffs on imported auto parts, subject to a cap of 15pc of the value of an assembled car until April 2026, dropping to a 10pc cap until April 2027. The refund cannot exceed 3.75pc of a car's manufacturer suggested retail price in the first year, dropping to 2.5pc in the second year. The idea behind the adjustment is to force US automakers to become wholly reliant on auto parts made in the US in the next two years, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick explained. In theory, at least, a US-made car that is made with 85pc domestic components would not face an additional tariff cost. A separate executive order clarifies that the tariffs on foreign-made cars and auto parts will not be calculated in addition to any other tariffs Trump has imposed on Canada and Mexico, and will not be counted on top of tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum and their derivative products. "This is just a little transition," Trump told reporters at the White House today, announcing the latest reversal of his tariff policy. "We're just giving them a little chance, because in some cases, they can't get the parts fast enough." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada’s Liberals win minority government


29/04/25
29/04/25

Canada’s Liberals win minority government

Calgary, 29 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party rode a wave of anti-US sentiment to victory in Monday's election, but fell just short of an elusive majority. The Liberals are on track to take 168 of the 343 seats in Parliament, according to Elections Canada, which said counting has carried over to today on account of a large voter turnout. If current levels hold, this will mark a six seat improvement for the Liberals over the 2021 election, but they will still require the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The Conservatives will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats. Despite the loss, the Conservatives made the largest gain of any party compared to the 2021 election, when they won 119 seats. Who will lead the Conservatives in Parliament is unclear, however, with current leader Pierre Poilievre losing his Ottawa seat to a Liberal candidate and being on the outside looking in for the first time in 20 years. Carney won his neighbouring seat handily, with the results indicative of which leader Canadians preferred to take on US president Donald Trump. The election was largely centered around trade and the economy which was brought to the forefront by Trump's tariffs and "51st state" rhetoric, turning the election into a two-horse race between the parties with the most realistic chances of forming a government. "President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen," said Carney in his victory speech. "We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons." Carney plans to sit with Trump to discuss the trade relationship between the two countries, but says Canada has "many, many other options" than the US to build prosperity. The Liberals garnered about 43.5pc of the popular vote while the Conservatives hit 41.4pc, according to preliminary results, each representing the highest for their respective parties since the 1980s. Liberal and Conservative gains came at the expense of the smaller New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloq Quebecois who may still hold influence in government despite suffering steep losses. The NDP are likely to end with seven seats, down from 25 in the 2021 election and below the 12 required for official party status in Parliament. The Bloq Quebecois, a regional party standing for sovereignty in Quebec, fell to 23 seats from 32 across the same time frame. The Liberals were propped up by the NDP since 2022 and may turn to the left-leaning party yet again to push legislation through. The NDP, nearly being wiped out, could hold the balance of power yet again but they will need to regroup after its leader also lost his seat. Carney admits Canada must build more infrastructure to both kickstart a lagging economy but also diversify its trade partners further beyond the US. The Conservatives agree more must be done and it is likely common ground could be found between the two parties to progress the export of energy, critical minerals and more. "We are going to build," said Carney. "Build, baby, build." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

N Sea benchmark crude loadings at 20-year low in June


29/04/25
29/04/25

N Sea benchmark crude loadings at 20-year low in June

London, 29 April (Argus) — Combined loadings of the five local North Sea benchmark grades Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll will drop to 350,000 b/d in June, the lowest in at least 20 years. Only one cargo of Ekofisk is planned for June, to load in the last days of the month. This is the lowest on Argus ' records going back more than 15 years. The number of the only June cargo suggests that one shipment was added to the May programme, but this was not confirmed. The drop in Ekofisk exports is a result of maintenance. ConocoPhillips will shut down the fields it operates in the Ekofisk area and the Nordpipe system for maintenance in June, the company previously told Argus . The planned shutdown will last around four weeks. The company did not specify by how much exports would be reduced. ConocoPhillips operates the Ekofisk and the Eldfisk fields in the Ekofisk area, which produced around 100,000 b/d of crude last year. Loadings of Brent will be largely steady at 23,000 b/d, or one cargo. Both Norwegian-produced Oseberg and Troll will have one fewer cargo in June, with two and three, respectively. Forties is the only grade of which exports will increase in June to 187,000 b/d across eight cargoes, up by 18pc, or one shipment, from May. Forties production will drop to a four-year low during maintenance in August . Such low availability of just one cargo of benchmark crude loading every other day can support the price of North Sea Dated in May. The sixth benchmark grade US WTI, added to the basket in mid-2023, offers much higher liquidity, with around 1.4mn b/d delivered to Europe so far this year — or roughly two cargoes a day. But local grades have been setting Dated as the cheapest option 84pc of the time this year so far, and tighter supply in June could support the benchmark's price. By Lina Bulyk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Spanish refineries, petchems restart after power outage


29/04/25
29/04/25

Spanish refineries, petchems restart after power outage

Madrid, 29 April (Argus) — Spanish oil companies Repsol and Moeve are restarting refineries and petrochemical plants after they were halted by a massive power cut across Spain and Portugal yesterday, 28 April. Power has returned to Repsol's five Spanish refineries, which have a combined 890,000 b/d of capacity, and its two petrochemicals plants in Tarragona and Puertollano, as well as Moeve's 464,000 b/d of refining capacity and two petrochemicals plants in southern Spain. Facilities are "restarting progressively" after power was restored from late on 28 April, according to the companies. They declined to say when they expect production to return to levels prior to the outages. A momentary and as-yet-unexplained drop in power supply on the Spanish electricity grid of over 10GW at around 12.30 CET (10:30 GMT) caused power cuts across most of Spain and Portugal yesterday, shutting down industrial complexes . The outage followed a localised and unexplained loss of power in Cartagena southern Spain on 22 April which shut down Repsol's 220,000 refinery for several days, the company confirmed. Portugal's Galp has not yet responded to requests for confirmation that its 226,000 b/d Sines refinery in southern Portugal halted yesterday, although one worker at the facility confirmed to Argus that the refinery is restarting now after a "total shutdown" following the power cut. BP said operations at its 108,000 b/d Castellon refinery in eastern Spain "have not been affected by the power outage" but the facility did "activate an emergency response plan" and is working "closely with local authorities to manage the situation." Spain's dominant oil product pipeline and storage operator Exolum, whose facilities connect refineries and ports, and deliver to service stations, said its infrastructure is working "normally" today after yesterday's disruption, adding that it managed to supply essential services and airports with fuel throughout the blackout. Repsol's 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery, which has limited hydrocracking capacity and no major petrochemicals units, took just two days to return to prior production levels after a power outage caused a total shutdown in 2016. Any recovery to normal functioning of a plant could take longer depending on the configuration of a particular refinery, whether any damage to units occurred and whether any petrochemical units were affected. Airport operations Aena — the firm that operates 48 Spanish airports — said that all airports in its network had fully resumed operations as of Tuesday morning. Airlines including Iberia, AirEuropa and Easyjet expect all flights to operate as scheduled today. The power outage halted operations at airports in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and southern France. Morocco's National Airports Office (Onda) announced that check-in and boarding procedures have been fully restored at all airports in the country. Around 500 flights were cancelled in Spain and Portugal, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, after deducting double-counted flights between the two countries. Lisbon airport was the worst hit, with 45pc of departures cancelled, as well as about 30pc of departures at Seville airport. Around 50 flights each were grounded at Madrid and Barcelona airports — Spain's busiest. By Jonathan Gleave and Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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