Crude Summit: Trafigura sees flaw in EU ETS for ships

Spanish Market: Emissions, Freight, Oil products
25/01/22

Trading firm Trafigura criticized the regional nature of shipping's inclusion in the EU's emissions trading system (ETS) and stressed the need for a global carbon tax to decarbonize the shipping industry.

The ETS, which will apply to shipping starting in 2023, is likely to force the EU to use modern vessels and relegate older, less efficient vessels to other parts of the world, Andrea Olivi, Trafigura's head of oil chartering, said today during the Argus Crude Summit in Houston, Texas.

"We're just shifting vessels from one area to another," he said.

Olivi expects the regulation to mostly affect EU-bound tanker routes. One such route is the highly liquid US Gulf coast-UKC Aframax route, currently assessed at $20.09/metric tonne or about $2.58/bl, per Argus pricing. The regulation may affect "tanker freight volatility," he said.

A carbon levy led by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is the only solution to accelerate shipping's decarbonization, Olivi said.

By Nicholas Watt

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11/04/25

Q&A: Australia’s Corporate Carbon expands ACCU trading

Sydney, 11 April (Argus) — Australian carbon project developer Corporate Carbon has been expanding its trading capabilities around Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) on the back of growing supply and wider market maturity. Head of carbon trading Angus Robertson spoke with Argus about the latest developments in the market. Corporate Carbon is one of the biggest suppliers of ACCUs. Is it correct that the company has been issued around 15mn ACCUs, counting both fully-owned projects and partnerships, which would be around 10pc of all ACCU issuances since the scheme started in 2011? Yes, that's the approximate number. We've got around 100 projects. In terms of issuance from a mix of owned projects and offtake agreements with other developers and partners in the industry, the approximate forecast is around 3mn ACCUs/yr. We trade around that and then also have capacity to trade outside of our own projects and within the portfolio, plus operating as a trading entity in the secondary market. The company has been one of the main suppliers to private buyers, and to the federal government through carbon abatement contracts (CACs). But you are also buyers. How does that work? The increased capability of our business to both buy and sell is a reflection of the broader Australian carbon market maturing over the last few years. The beginning of the business was very much built off the back of those CACs. As that policy changed over time, allowing for the partial exiting of those CACs , obviously there's been a lot more focus on the secondary market now. We've seen a lot of trading houses, banks and other financial institutions coming into the market, and with that you get a more mature financial market. So in response to that, we've been building out our trading capacity as well as our broader commercial team over the past few years. We take a portfolio approach and we have a large inventory flow to assist with that growing demand, but there are times when we go out to the secondary market and source units on behalf of clients. You recently partnered with trading and risk management firm Ion Commodities to implement their Carbon Zero tool. How does that translate into your trading capabilities? We see Ion's solution as a really effective trading tool and portfolio management system. It reflects our readiness to operate at a larger scale. By providing those tools, it allows us to focus on the strategic goals of the business, especially from a commercial perspective. It is very much a tool for reporting purposes and the automation capabilities of the system assist with that, but it does have a bit of a flow-on effect in terms of efficiency across the business as well. Going to the market, in the short term, it seems to be all about the upcoming federal elections. Do you expect to see much price volatility within the next few weeks? Yes. As we approach the Australian federal election, we would expect there to be a degree of uncertainty, considering the difference in the two major party outcomes in terms of their take on the carbon market. We would see it as positive in either instance, but I think there is still a degree of uncertainty that should lead to perhaps a degree of illiquidity in the market. The market has been also weighed down by a strong issuance of safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs). Were you surprised with that high volume when it was first disclosed by the Climate Change Authority late last year? I think it was the general market consensus that the number was higher than initially forecast, and [ACCU] market prices definitely reflected that in the following weeks and months after those numbers were disclosed. Once the final numbers were released, I think the market had generally already priced that in by that point. Has that changed your internal outlook for when the ACCU market might see an expected shift from oversupply to undersupply? I wouldn't say our internal view has changed all that much. If the majority of that volume is now weighted towards the early years of the safeguard mechanism, policies might reflect that going forward. Now we would probably see ACCU supply as a potential restriction on the market in the short to medium term. Obviously, there's speculation around certain methods in the ACCU market, where higher forecasts were expected over the following next few years and that's now no longer the case. So probably more around supply than demand in terms of our shifted internal views, and this is more from a trading and market perspective as opposed to our actual projects being affected. So it's more on the supply side than demand, even with the high SMC issuances? Well, obviously the market has reacted to those media releases by the regulator around SMCs. So you know that's already happened — you can't really argue that now. Will there be further policy changes around the safeguard mechanism to account for that? That's a bit of an unknown, but it's definitely potential in the following years. And when you talk about supply constraints, is it mostly the delays with the development of the integrated farm and land management methodology , and potentially lower issuances from a reformed landfill gas method? Those are good examples of general delays in certain methods and the creation of new methods. So yes, our expectation is that this could be a big driver on ACCU prices in the next few years. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

South Korean bitumen exports may head to southeast Asia

11/04/25

South Korean bitumen exports may head to southeast Asia

Singapore, 11 April (Argus) — South Korea bitumen exports could start entering southeast Asia in the coming months, following the recent opening of the arbitrage window between the two regions. Export prices from South Korea have declined sharply over the past week, weighed down by early-week declines in upstream crude and high-sulphur fuel oil values. A Yeosu-based refiner concluded an export tender to sell up to four May- and June-loading cargoes on 10 April, which was settled in the range of $375-385/t fob South Korea, according to market participants. Declines in fob Singapore bitumen export pricing have been slower in comparison, as continued production output cuts contributed to curtailed spot supplies. Most refiners in Singapore have fully committed April- and May-loading volumes, although several traders were still holding on to unsold volumes. In contrast, a steady supply of April- and May-loading cargoes has been made available from South Korean suppliers over the past month. One refiner previously released three export tenders in March alone, far more than the typical one per month. Arbitrage economics to export bitumen from South Korea to southeast Asia has grown more favourable, as fob Singapore premiums over that of fob South Korea values widened. Spreads between fob Singapore and South Korea widened to $42.50/t on 10 April, up from $22.50/t a week earlier. This is the widest since November 2024, when fob Singapore prices also traded at premiums of $42.50/t to that of South Korean exports. Traders who won some shipments from the recent South Korean export tender may direct some of these volumes to southeast Asia, rather than sell them to the traditional export destination market of east China. Domestic prices in east China have come under renewed pressure in the week to 11 April, undermined by consecutive day-on-day losses in the bitumen futures market. This, coupled with a weaker yuan against the US dollar, has put a dent on Chinese appetite for South Korean exports. These South Korean exports could eventually be shipped to Vietnam, where demand has been relatively more robust compared with other Asian countries, market participants said. Pricing competition in north Vietnam has intensified in 2025 on increased export supplies from south China. And with South Korean exports likely to join the fray, this could temporarily edge out Vietnam's imports of Singapore-origin bitumen. By Leanne Tan Singapore vs South Korea bitumen price spreads ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariff concerns drive US VLSFO to 4-year lows

10/04/25

Tariff concerns drive US VLSFO to 4-year lows

New York, 10 April (Argus) — Very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) monthly averages at four US ports have declined to their lowest levels since 2021, driven by uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. Houston and New Orleans VLSFO monthly averages dropped to $470/t and $491/t, respectively, so far in April. That is the lowest average for Houston since April 2021 and the lowest since February 2021 for New Orleans. New York and Philadelphia VLSFO averages are at $498/t and $510/t, respectively, the lowest since April 2021 for New York and May 2021 for Philadelphia. Bunker market participants have had mixed reactions to the price decline so far. According to one trader, some buyers have been trying to buy bunker fuel with delivery dates for one month from now, to lock in the lower prices, rather than one week out, which is typical when buying bunker fuel in the spot market. Another market contact said they have seen a mixture of elevated buying interest but also some buyers who will hold off waiting to see if prices continue to drop or if the volatility in prices ease as there have been large price swings within the same business day. "I have not seen anything this volatile since the start of the Russia vs Ukraine war," the trader said. Oil futures went up by almost 5pc on 9 April reversing losses from early that morning after US president Donald Trump paused higher punitive tariffs against key trading partners such as the EU and Japan and increased tariffs against China. The wild swing for intraday bunker prices on 9 April , which typically traces Brent crude, lowered market demand. By Luis Gronda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction

10/04/25

New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction

Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Quebec stands by GHG program

10/04/25

Quebec stands by GHG program

Houston, 10 April (Argus) — Quebec legislators and government officials reaffirmed their support for the province's cap-and-trade program on Wednesday. The National Assembly of Quebec unanimously adopted a joint resolution expressing continued support for the provincial program, which was introduced by members from opposition parties Quebec Liberal Party, Québec solidaire, Parti québécois and Quebec environment minister Benoit Charette of the majority party Coalition avenir Québec. The resolution's passage came a day after US president Donald Trump issued an executive order taking aim at state climate policies as an "overreach" of their authority, specifically citing California's cap-and-trade program, which formed a joint market with the province in 2013. While Trump's order cast a wide net over potential areas the administration intends to scrutinize, a familiar theme from his previous term did appear around state climate policies interacting with international relations. "These state laws and policies try to dictate interstate and international disputes over air, water, and natural resources," Trump said. While Quebec's Ministry of Environment declined to comment on the order, the province's link with California's program was an area of contention between the state and the first Trump administration. The Trump administration in October 2019 filed a lawsuit that sought to sever California's link on the grounds the state had unlawfully overstepped federal powers to negotiate independent foreign policy for greenhouse gas (GHG) regulation and was "inconsistent" with Trump's then-ongoing withdrawal from the Paris Agreement started in 2017. But the lawsuit ultimately failed following two separate rulings by the same federal judge in 2020, with a subsequent appeal by the Trump administration withdrawn after the election of former US president Joe Biden. Trump's new executive order roiled environmental markets on Wednesday, with California Carbon Allowances (CCAs) for December delivery trading as low as $22.51/metric tonne on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), before partially rebounding as participants expressed concern about potential federal action against the program. While state and government officials continue to evaluate the order, the office of California attorney general Rob Bonta (D) said the state's Department of Justice will use the "full force of the law and tools of this office to address the climate crisis head on." The California and Quebec programs aim for economy-wide reductions in GHG emissions, including from power plants, refineries and on-road fuel use. Both jurisdictions are seeking to increase the stringency of their respective programs to remain on course for statutory targets through a pair of rulemakings that may be implemented next year. The joint market, known as the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), is also evaluating linking with the Washington "cap-and-invest' program, which would make the state the first one to join California in the WCI, creating a larger North American carbon market. Quebec seeks to reduce GHG emissions by 37.5pc below 1990 levels by 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. Provincial regulators are considering removing 17.5mn allowances from the program to speed emissions reductions, while tapering the use of carbon offset credits by 2030, among other changes. California requires a 40pc reduction from 1990 emission levels by the end of 2030, and net-zero in 2045. CARB is considering changing the 2030 target to 48pc. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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