Cancellations expected for Ukraine grain contracts

Spanish Market: Agriculture
24/02/22

Exporters of Ukrainian and Russian grain are likely to cancel contracts, invoking force majeure, market participants have said.

Some sellers have already been heard cancelling coaster loadings at Russian ports, and further cancellations are expected after Russia launched attacks across Ukraine. Ship movements have been halted in all of Ukraine's ports and market participants said ship movements had also been halted in some Azov Sea ports.

Suspended loadings, inaccessibility of ports and likely disruption to customs clearing could prompt many sellers to delay or cancel contract fulfilment by citing force majeure.

Ukraine still has some 7mn t of wheat and 14mn t of corn left to export this marketing year. And Russia's wheat export quota — in force from 15 February until the end of the marketing year — stands at 8mn t, most of which is yet to ship out.

Buyers could turn to alternative sources for grain, including France, Germany, the UK, Romania, Bulgaria, Argentina, Brazil, the US and Australia, market participants said.

By Anna Sneidermane

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

03/04/25

Australian beef targeted by US' 10pc tariff

Sydney, 3 April (Argus) — Imports of Australian goods will be tariffed at a general rate of 10pc, US president Donald Trump announced on 2 April, as he signalled his displeasure regarding Australia's biosecurity regulations on agricultural product imports. Australian imports will be levied with a broad 10pc tariff , the minimum under the Trump administration's regime designed to boost domestic production and raise revenue. Trump cited Australia's biosecurity-based restrictions on US beef imports as a reason for his tariff imposition. "Australia bans American beef and yet we imported $3bn of Australian beef from them last year alone, they won't take any of our beef," Trump said at the White House on 2 April, "They don't want it because they don't want it to affect their farmers." Australia's main export of beef to the US is lean trim, rather than cuts, with total beef exports of 395,000t in 2024, or 29pc of the total 1.34mn t shipped. Australia's other significant trade partners include China, South Korea, Japan and the Middle East. The decision comes as US cattle ranchers remain drought-affected, with nearly 40pc of the nation classed as suffering from moderate-to-exceptional drought at the end of January 2025, the US' National Drought Mitigation Centre said. The female-to-male slaughter ratio has reached its highest average in 25 years in the past six years, with the country recording its smallest January herd numbers since 1951 in 2025. The world's largest cattle producers Brazil and Australia exported record quantities of beef in 2024, while the US will export 13pc less and import 3pc more beef in 2025 on the back of its declining herd, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is despite a recent update from the USDA indicating that heavier-than-expected carcase weights will increase domestic output by 120mn lbs from the previous forecast. Tariff impacts on Australian beef values is expected to be limited based on the 10pc figure because of high US domestic beef prices, low storage levels and declining numbers of US cattle on feed. Feedlot placements were down by 18pc on the year on 1 March, USDA statistics show. Import mix Major competitor Brazil was also hit with a 10pc general tariff on goods. The country already incurs 26.4pc above-quota tariff rates for exports to the US, which were applied from 17 January 2025. But Australia receives 448,000 t/yr tariff-free access under a free trade agreement signed with the US in 2005. Beef imports from Mexico and Canada will be exempt from the 10pc reciprocal tariffs, along with other products under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Canada and Mexico accounted for 22pc and 13pc of US beef imports respectively in 2024 according to USDA data, and the countries could gain a larger share of the US beef market going forward. New Zealand's beef exports to the US totalled 183,000t in 2024, with the nation's red meat exporters still expecting high demand from the US despite potential disruption to trade flows because of the 10pc tariff. By Tom Major and Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico manufacturing extends contraction in March

02/04/25

Mexico manufacturing extends contraction in March

Mexico City, 2 April (Argus) — Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted for a 12th consecutive month in March, with production and employment both deepening their slides, according to a survey released today. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) ticked up to 47.2 in March from 47.1 in February, but remained below the 50-point threshold between contraction and expansion, according to the latest PMI survey from the finance executive association IMEF. Manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Mexico's economy, is led by the auto sector, contributing about 18pc of manufacturing GDP. Within the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index rose by 1.3 points to 45.3, still deep in contraction. Meanwhile, production fell by 0.6 points to 44.6. The employment index also declined 0.6 points to 46.4 in March, now in contraction for 14 consecutive months. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI — covering services and commerce — declined 0.8 points to 48.8 in March from 49.6 in February, holding in contraction for a fourth consecutive month. Within the non-manufacturing PMI, new orders fell 1.5 points to 48.2 and production declined 1 point to 47.5 with employment down a point as well in March to 47.5, as all three pushed deeper into contraction. In contrast, the inventories component rose 3.5 points to 50.6 into expansion territory in March. But this may be the result of company strategies to stockpile inventories ahead of US tariffs and the reciprocal measures Mexico is set to announce on 3 April, IMEF technical advisory board member Sergio Luna said. PMI data show that the economic stagnation that began in late 2024 persisted through March, with results from January and February pointing to a sharp slowdown in the first quarter, IMEF said. This follows annualized GDP growth of 0.5pc in the fourth quarter of 2024, slowing from 1.7pc in the third quarter, according to national statistics agency data. Luna said concerns over US tariffs continue to drive much of the uncertainty reflected in the PMI data. Internal factors — such as reduced government spending to contain the fiscal deficit and investor unease over judicial reforms passed last year — are also weighing on activity, Luna added. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Northern Australian floods squeeze cattle supply

02/04/25

Northern Australian floods squeeze cattle supply

Sydney, 2 April (Argus) — Major flooding in Australia's western Queensland caused stock losses and logistic disruptions, which could support feeder steer prices. Heavy rains of up to 500mm in the last seven days to 31 March have caused record flooding in some areas of central west and south-west Queensland, Bureau of Meteorology data show. These regions account for about a fifth of the state's cattle population or close to 1.976mn head in 2021, according to the Australia Bureau of Statistics. The Queensland Department of Primary Industries (QDPI) estimates 145,000 head of livestock are missing or dead because of the recent flooding, including 69,000 head of cattle. The QDPI predicts over 4,700km of private roads and 3,500km of fencing has been damaged, affecting paddock access and livestock mustering. The supply squeeze could support prices of feeder steers, as multiple sale yard auctions planned for early April have been cancelled because of wet weather and insufficient numbers. Sales at Charters Towers and Gracemere on 2 April were cancelled and the Blackall sale on 3 April is postponed until 10 April, according to local councils and livestock agents. The Argus Australian northern feeder steer price was at 361A¢/kg on 27 March, up by 2A¢/kg on the week, but could rise further this week as processors bid for available stock at more easterly cattle sales. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts up to 25mm of rain on 2 April and 3 April in flood-affected regions, before declining to a 5mm maximum on 4 April, which could allow some waters to recede. But major flood warnings are still in place for rising rivers in the state's southwest, despite lower rainfall. Mustering and road freight could be delayed for six weeks in the Channel Country of far western Queensland, according to a market participant. Farmers in some flood-affected areas of Queensland can access freight subsidies of up to A$5,000 from the state government to transport livestock for restocking, which could speed up herd recovery. By Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

01/04/25

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Mato Grosso corn planting reaches 100pc

31/03/25

Brazil's Mato Grosso corn planting reaches 100pc

Sao Paulo, 31 March (Argus) — The 2024-25 winter corn planting in Brazil's central-western Mato Grosso state reached 100pc of the expected area as of 28 March, which concludes the planting season, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. That is slightly ahead of the five-year average of 99.9pc. At the same time a year earlier, the 2023-24 crop was fully sowed as well. Soybean Mato Grosso's 2024-25 soybean harvesting is not yet complete. Harvesting reached 99.9pc as of 28 March, an advance of 0.4 percentage points on the week, according to Imea. That is ahead of the 99.7pc harvested at this time a year earlier for the 2023-24 crop and above the five-year average of 98.9pc. Cotton Mato Grosso completed sowing the 2024-25 cotton crop as of 28 February, but harvesting is yet to begin. Activities usually start around mid-June, according to Imea. By Sofia Zizza Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more