ОПЕК+ решила наращивать добычу нефти быстрее
Альянс нефтедобывающих стран ОПЕК+ на заседании 2 июня решил повысить общий потолок производства нефти в июле на 648 тыс. барр./сут. относительно июня. Предварительно министры согласовали такое же повышение добычи и на август – если этот план будет выполнен, то уже к концу лета объем производства нефти в странах ОПЕК+ может вернуться к уровню осени 2018 г. Впрочем, фактическая добыча нефти во многих странах соглашения в этом году отстает от плана.
Одним из немногих участников альянса ОПЕК+, имеющих техническую возможность наращивать производство, является Саудовская Аравия. Резервными мощностями также располагают Объединенные Арабские Эмираты (ОАЭ).
Коалиция ОПЕК+ объединяет страны, входящие в ОПЕК, и ряд стран-производителей нефти, не являющихся членами этой организации. Летом прошлого года участники соглашения ОПЕК+ договорились о том, что в период с августа 2021 г. по апрель 2022 г. будут ежемесячно увеличивать совокупную добычу нефти на 400 тыс. барр./сут., а начиная с мая 2022 г. рост будет составлять 432 тыс. барр./сут. ежемесячно.
Поэтапное повышение производства должно продолжаться до тех пор, пока совокупная добыча в странах-участницах не достигнет уровня, на котором она находилась осенью 2018 г. – то есть около 42,1 млн барр./сут. в 19 странах-участницах соглашения, включая 26,7 млн барр./сут. в десяти странах-членах ОПЕК и 15,4 млн барр./сут. в девяти странах, не входящих в ОПЕК. Данный целевой показатель не учитывает добычу в Иране, Ливии и Венесуэле, которые являются членами ОПЕК, но освобождены от ограничений на производство.
Прежний график повышения добычи предусматривал, что квота каждой из стран ОПЕК+ достигнет целевого показателя к концу сентября 2022 г. Но на заседании в четверг участники договорились увеличивать добычу на 648 тыс. барр./сут. ежемесячно в июле и августе, вместо того чтобы наращивать ее на 432 тыс. барр./сут. в течение трех месяцев, с июля по сентябрь.
В апреле, по оценке Argus, добыча нефти в 19 странах-участницах соглашения ОПЕК+ составила почти 37,6 млн барр./сут., в том числе около 24,7 млн барр./сут. в десяти странах ОПЕК и 12,9 млн барр./сут. в девяти странах, не входящих в ОПЕК. Это значит, что добыча в странах ОПЕК в апреле оказалась на 660 тыс. барр./сут. ниже коллективной квоты для соответствующего месяца, тогда как производство в странах, не входящих в ОПЕК, отставало от квоты на 1,73 млн барр./сут.
При этом добыча в России в апреле оказалась меньше квоты на 1,3 млн барр./сут., так как страна резко сократила производство нефти из-за санкционного давления, уменьшения спроса на российские нефтепродукты на зарубежных рынках и необходимости искать новых покупателей и выстраивать новые маршруты доставки нефти и нефтепродуктов. По оценке Argus, производство нефти в России без учета конденсата снизилось в апреле до 9,13 млн барр./сут. по сравнению с 10 млн барр./cут. – в марте. Нефтяная квота России составляла в апреле 10,436 млн барр./cут.
В мае российские нефтяные компании, по предварительным оценкам, прекратили снижать добычу. Согласно данным, которое приводило информационное агентство ТАСС, производство нефти и конденсата в период 1-29 мая в суточном выражении повысилось на 1% по сравнению с апрелем. Вице-премьер Александр Новак говорил в середине мая, что в июне ожидает дальнейшего восстановления добычи нефти в России.
Россия и Саудовская Аравия, как ключевые участники соглашения ОПЕК+, имеют одинаковые квоты на производство нефти: в июне квота каждой страны составляет 10,663 млн барр./сут., а в июле увеличится до 10,883 млн барр./сут.
Квота Казахстана повысится в следующем месяце до 1,68 млн барр./сут с текущих 1,655 млн барр./сут., а квота Азербайджана вырастет до 706 тыс. барр./сут. с текущих 696 тыс. барр./сут.
По условиям соглашения ОПЕК+, страны, превысившие квоты в какие-либо месяцы, должны компенсировать это перепроизводство дополнительными ограничениями добычи. Срок таких компенсаций уже продлевался несколько раз и до недавнего момента был установлен до конца июня. На заседании 2 июня страны альянса согласовали новую дату для окончательных компенсаций - 31 декабря 2022 г.
Коалиция ОПЕК+ проводит заседания ежемесячно. Следующая встреча министров назначена на 30 июня.
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Vertex Energy files for bankruptcy, seeks sale
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Helene shuts in about 16pc of US Gulf oil: Update 2
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Helene shuts in about 16pc of US Gulf oil: Update
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