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France approves draft gas security of supply law

  • Spanish Market: Natural gas
  • 22/07/22

France's National Assembly has approved measures to ensure security of gas supply which focus on the power sector, LNG and underground storage.

The legislation, which will now need to be approved by the senate, would allow the government to order gas-fired plant operators to reduce or halt production in the event of a threat to security of gas supply at a local, national or European level.

And if electricity supply were threatened, the state could order gas-fired plant operators to function only under the orders and control of a designated operator. Cogeneration plants would be lower down in the merit order for these measures.

The French parliament also approved measures to create a regime to accelerate the roll-out of LNG import facilities and the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) at Le Havre, but specified that the operating life of the FSRU "may not exceed five years". This legislation would be in force until 1 January 2025, and the operator of the new FSRU would be obliged to publish a study on the direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions produced by the facility within six months of its commercial start.

Additional measures to secure start-of-winter stocks

The National Assembly has also approved measures to ensure the country's underground gas stocks are sufficiently high by the start of winter.

If stocks are not on track to reach a minimum level identified by the French energy minister, the minister will order storage operators to build "security stocks" to achieve the minimum fill levels.

Storage operators would initially be able to use unbooked capacity for this purpose and, if necessary, unused reserved capacity. The costs of such security stocks would be covered by the French state. Energy regulator the CRE would define the terms and conditions for the creation of these stocks and the terms of their sale, and would develop tools to forecast the risk level of not achieving storage objectives.

The legislation also envisages an increase in the Arenh cap — the fixed price at which EdF has to sell nuclear output — to at least €49.50/MWh on 1 January, up from €42/MWh at present. And it creates the conditions for the issuing of a decree which could raise the ceiling for greenhouse gas emissions to facilitate the restart of the Saint-Avold coal-fired plant, which closed at the end of March.

The senate will begin to examine the draft law in its finance commission on 25 July. President Emmanuel Macron's party does not have an absolute majority in either chamber and the bill could be modified in the senate.


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13/11/24

Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku

Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku

Montevideo, 13 November (Argus) — Argentina's government today withdrew its delegation from the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The country's foreign affairs ministry confirmed to Argus that the delegation had been told to leave the event, which began on 11 November and will run through 22 November. No reason was given for the decision, but it fits the general policies of President Javier Milei, who has expressed skepticism about climate change. Milei eliminated the country's environment ministry shortly after taking office in December 2023. He is also pursuing investment to monetize oil and gas reserves, with a focus on the Vaca Muerta unconventional formation. Vaca Muerta has an estimated 308 trillion cf of natural gas and 16bn bl of oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In October, the government created the Argentina LNG division with a plan to involve private companies and the state-owned YPF to produce and export up to 30mn metric tonnes (t)/yr of LNG by 2030. It wants to export 1mn bl of crude. The plans are closely linked to a new investment framework, known as RIGI, that will provide incentives for large-scale investments. The administration is also pushing hard for investment in critical minerals, including copper and lithium. Argentina has the world's second-largest lithium resources, estimated at 22mn t by the US Geological Survey. It has copper potential that the RIGI would help tap. The government has not specified if pulling out of Cop 29 means Argentina will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which Argentina ratified in 2016. The country's nationally determined contribution calls for net emissions not to exceed 359mn t of CO2 by 2030. This represents a 21pc reduction of emissions from the maximum reached in 2007. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

No sign of peak in CO2 from fossil fuels: Report


13/11/24
13/11/24

No sign of peak in CO2 from fossil fuels: Report

London, 13 November (Argus) — Carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to hit a fresh record high of 37.4bn t in 2024, with "no sign" that these have peaked, a team of scientists said today in the 2024 Global Carbon Budget report. Total CO2 emissions are projected to reach 41.6bn t in 2024, up from 40.6bn t in 2023, which includes emissions of around 4.2bn t from land-use change, the report found. It also estimates the global carbon budget remaining before the 1.5°C temperature limit set out in the Paris climate agreement is "breached consistently over multiple years". The remaining carbon budget "has almost run out", the report found. There is a 50pc chance that warming will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels "consistently in about six years", the report found. There is uncertainty around the estimates, largely owed to the effects of other greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as methane and nitrous oxide, it noted. The Paris accord seeks to limit a rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above a pre-industrial average, and preferably to 1.5°C. This year is on track to be the hottest on record , the World Meteorological Organisation said on 11 November — the opening day of the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. And drought conditions have helped to reverse a recent downward trend in CO2 emissions from land-use change — such as deforestation — in 2024. Those emissions are set to rise in 2024, after falling by 20pc in the past decade, the report found. Permanent CO2 removals from reforestation and planting new trees is "offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions", it added. And the report authors noted that technology-based carbon removals — typically engineered, rather than nature-based — are at current levels only able to account for one-millionth of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Projections for the highest-emitting countries — China, the US and India — are mixed. China's emissions are projected to increase by 0.2pc in 2024, although the report noted that the range means they could decrease. US emissions are set to drop by 0.6pc, while India's are projected to rise by 4.6pc this year. The Global Carbon Budget report — which will be peer-reviewed — is produced annually by an international team of more than 120 scientists. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump’s win yields mixed picture for LNG market


13/11/24
13/11/24

Trump’s win yields mixed picture for LNG market

London, 13 November (Argus) — Global gas and LNG market participants await clarity on president-elect Donald Trump's course of action once he takes office in January, as the net impact of some of its stated policies remains difficult to gauge. Price movements in recent days show little evidence of a market reaction to the outcome of the election. Prompt and near-curve LNG prices for delivery to Europe and Asia have risen, mostly tracking the increase in European hub prices. But the change in euro-denominated hub prices appears largely unrelated to the jump in the value of the US dollar that followed Trump's win. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six other currencies, has rallied since Trump's victory became apparent, reaching a two-year high on 13 November. The US currency was worth over €0.95 on Wednesday, up from €0.91 on polling day. This might have contributed to stronger European hub prices, albeit only slightly. Exchange rates aside, the election result was never likely to have a serious short-term impact on the LNG market. The halt to Russian gas flows through Ukraine at the end of this year, when transit and interconnection agreements between Moscow and Kyiv expire, is the variable with the most disruptive potential for European gas markets that are much more reliant on LNG since Russia launched its full-scale invasion. But a shift in US policy would not be able to exert influence on any negotiations — which remain hypothetical at present — aimed at extending gas flows through Ukraine, given that Trump is only due to take office in late January. But Trump's policies might from next year affect the LNG market. US LNG producers have expressed mixed feelings about the consequences of a second Trump administration, with a dividing line emerging between firms that already export LNG and those that want to build new export facilities. Forward gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub also appear to show a mixed picture, with contracts for delivery next year and in 2026 rising broadly in line with the near curve, while prices for delivery in the following two years have held broadly stable. Operators of existing liquefaction facilities were wary of Trump's enthusiastic endorsement of protectionist policies, which they fear could trigger another trade war with China. The president-elect has pledged to impose a 20pc tariff on all imports — except those from China, which will instead be subject to 60pc. The possibility of Beijing following suit with retaliatory tariffs on US LNG— as in 2018-19, during Trump's first term — concerns many market participants. Trump's trade war with China in 2018-19 was widely seen as detrimental to development of the industry, as it hampered trade between the largest incremental producer and consumer. But the nature of most US LNG contracts — predominantly based on free-on-board delivery — reduced the short-term impact. While physical deliveries to China did vanish in 2019, no US LNG exporter reported cancellations that year, with cargoes simply resold elsewhere or swapped with LNG from other countries. The re-emergence of similar trade disputes from next year could force another reconfiguration of trade flows, possibly facilitated by the fact Europe is now a much larger LNG importer than in 2018-19, when it was heavily dependent on Russian pipeline gas. Physical deliveries of US LNG to China fell sharply in 2022 and have still been at less than half their 2021 peak this year (see chart). But while higher than six years ago, Europe's LNG demand has not pushed beyond 2022's record, and the amount of US LNG in Chinese portfolios is also much larger. On the other hand, developers of new US liquefaction facilities have pinned their hopes on Trump's pledge to reverse the Biden's administration licensing pause, which froze projects and in some cases lost them contracts. But speeding up project approvals could result in a much more amply supplied market later in the decade, when a swathe of new facilities are already due on line (see chart) Industry figures have suggested the [LNG market could be oversupplied as early as 2028](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2493845. The greatest uncertainties are related to how Trump deals with the conflict in Ukraine. He has boasted he would end the war on his first day in office — overly optimistic at best. But even if his administration could bring about a swift end to the conflict, a full normalisation of relations between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to imagine. Nevertheless, a relaxation of US sanctions — including those targeting Russia's existing 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 terminal — could be an initial bargaining chip and might result in an immediate increase in supply. By Antonio Peciccia US liquefaction capacity mn t/yr US LNG deliveries to China mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation rises in October to 2.6pc


13/11/24
13/11/24

US inflation rises in October to 2.6pc

Houston, 13 November (Argus) — US inflation ticked higher in October, led by monthly gains in shelter, a reminder that the last lap in the Federal Reserve's marathon to bring inflation to its long-term target remains a challenge. The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to an annual 2.6pc in October, in line with analysts' forecasts in a survey by Trading Economics, from 2.4pc in September, which was the lowest since February 2021, the Labor Department reported today. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 3.3pc rate, unchanged on the month. The energy index contracted by 4.9pc over the 12 months, slowing from a decline of 6.8pc through September. The gasoline index fell by 12.2pc, slowing from a 15.3pc decrease the prior month. The fuel oil index fell by 20.8pc. Federal Reserve policymakers last week cut the target rate by a quarter point, following a half-point cut in September that kicked off an easing cycle from then-23-year highs. Inflation has slowed to near the Fed's 2pc target from highs above 9pc in mid-2022 that proved to be a major impetus behind president-elect Donald Trump's victory at the ballot box on 5 November. The CME's FedWatch tool today gives near-80pc odds of another quarter-point cut in December. "The economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower" in adjusting rates lower, Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters last week after the Fed decision. The food index rose by an annual 2.1pc, slowing from a 2.3pc gain through September. Shelter rose by an annual 4.9pc, unchanged. Transportation services rose by 8.2pc. New vehicles fell by 1.3pc while used vehicle prices fell by 3.4pc. Services less energy services, viewed as core services, rose by 4.8pc. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2pc in October, a fourth month of such gains after falling by 0.1pc in June. Core inflation rose by 0.3pc for a third month. Shelter accelerated to a 0.4pc monthly gain, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase, after a 0.2pc gain. Energy was unchanged in October after falling by 1.9pc in September from the prior month. Food rose by 0.2pc on the month, following a 0.4pc gain. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Developing nations eye sub-targets in finance goal


13/11/24
13/11/24

Cop: Developing nations eye sub-targets in finance goal

Baku, 13 November (Argus) — The finance goal for developing countries under negotiation at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, must include a core public finance target from developed countries, with fund allocation floors for least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing states (Sids), delegates from developing countries said today. The goal, the so-called new collective and quantified goal (NCQG), must include a core public finance provision target by developed countries based on a burden sharing agreement, and a fund mobilisation target, said regional alliance the African Group of Negotiators' (AGN) lead co-ordinator for finance Richard Sherman. The goal should address mitigation — action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — and also adaptation and loss and damage, he said. Adaptation refers to adjustments to avoid global warming effects, while loss and damage describes the unavoidable and irreversible effects of such change. The goal needs to offer "predictable finance" for adaptation and loss and damage for small economies with more limited resources, and recognise the "special case of Sids", said Samoa's environment minister and chair of the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster. He said the amount to be agreed at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku for developing countries' climate finance should include "minimum allocation floors" of $39bn/yr for SIDs and $220bn/yr for LDCs. Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine said parties should make sure no finance supporting development of fossil fuels is counted in the new goal. AGN reiterated today that it wants a climate finance commitment of $1.3 trillion/yr by 2030, mostly through concessional instruments and grants. The NCQG follows on from the current $100bn/yr target, which is broadly recognised as inadequate. Developed nations surpassed the goal by $15.9bn in 2022, but it was missed in 2020 and 2021, according to the OECD. AGN contests it has never been met . Negotiations on the NCQG have begun in Baku, but are in the early stages with developed countries unwilling to commit to a figure, a delegate said. A group of leading Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) estimated yesterday that they could increase climate financing to $120bn/yr by 2030 for low- and middle-income countries. The group, comprising the World Bank and nine other MDBs including the European Investment Bank, hope to leverage an additional $65bn/yr from the private sector. MDBs accounted for around 40pc of the $115.9bn in climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries to developing nations in 2022, according to the OECD. The role of MDBs is crucial as increased climate ambition can only be met with increased finance, said Chile's environment minister Maisa Rojas. But Fiji's deputy prime minister Biman Prasad said the increase coming from MDBs is not going to translate into "additional finance unless there is a clear agreement at this Cop". By Bachar Halabi and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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