US HRC: Prices slip, market grasps for bottom

Spanish Market: Metals
09/08/22

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices continued to fall this week as the market attempts to find a bottom and a major steelmaker works to prop it up.

The Argus weekly domestic US HRC Midwest and southern assessments fell by $9.50/st to $812.25/st. Since mid-April, when HRC prices peaked at $1,500/st, the assessments have fallen by 46pc and are down by 49pc since the beginning of the year.

HRC lead times in the Midwest were flat at 3-4 weeks, with August availability still reported.

At least one flat-rolled mill was reported to have pushed its lead times out into late-September after electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaker Nucor announced a $50/st flat-rolled price increase yesterday.

The price increase caught some off guard, coming on the back of prime scrap prices dropping by $60-70/gross ton in August, which is higher than the $30-50/gt drop that the scrap market had previously expected for the month.

Declining raw material costs cast doubt upon the price increase, with multiple large service centers saying they are staying out of the spot market except to meet customer needs.

Some downstream customers were said to have moved back into the market, but many decided to hold off an continue to work down inventories.

At least one buyer made a purchase of more than 50,000st of HRC at $700/st, saying that more purchases had to be made of similar tonnages in order to push the market up. The market participant noted that prices are likely to continue to fall somewhat.

EAF steelmaker Steel Dynamics (SDI) was said to be in wait-and-see mode when it came to pricing moves, and no other steelmakers had yet to follow Nucor's lead.

The Argus HRC import assessment into Houston was flat at $820/st ddp on no new trades or offers.

The spread between #1 busheling scrap delivered US Midwest mills and HRC selling prices rose by 2.3pc to $408/st.

A year ago the spread was $1,306/st and was weeks from hitting the peak spread of $1,441/st reached in mid-September.

The Argus weekly domestic US cold-rolled coil (CRC) assessment was flat at $1,136/st, while the hot dipped galvanized (HDG) coil assessment fell by $40.75/st to $1,113.25/st. Value-add prices were heard at sub-$1,000/st levels from one source, with most in a wide range between $1,020-1,200/st.

Lead times for CRC rose slightly to 6 weeks from 5-6 weeks while HDG lead times edged down to 4-5 weeks from 4-6 weeks.

The CME HRC Midwest futures market were mixed this week, with prices remaining in contango for the third consecutive week. September futures fell by $21/st to $833/st, while October prices fell by $10/st to $860/st. November prices were flat at $880/st, while December prices were up by $25/st to $900/st. January prices edged up by $5/st to $905/st, and February futures inched up $3 to $906/st.

Plate

The Argus weekly domestic US ex-works plate assessment was flat at $1,740/st as platemakers held prices after a reduction last week. Lead times shrank to 3-5 weeks from 3-6 weeks.

The plate delivered assessment declined by $6.75/st to $1,791.25/st.

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