MISO staff warn of continued capacity shortfall
The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) is at risk of continued resource capacity shortfalls in coming years because of planned US power plant retirements and expected growth in electricity demand, according to a draft report from the grid operator's staff.
The grid could need more than 100GW of new nameplate capacity by 2030 and 200GW by 2041 to meet electricity load and utility company decarbonization goals, staff members told MISO's resource adequacy subcommittee on 24 August.
MISO staff tied much of the increased need for nameplate capacity to expected decreases in accredited resources as more traditionally baseload coal-fired power plants are replaced with renewable generation, which MISO tends to rank lower in terms of being able to reliably provide power to the grid. MISO staff projected renewables would grow to 30pc of the grid's annual energy by 2027 and may account for as much as 60pc of the grid's power output by 2041. Meanwhile, generators plan to close a little under 34,000MW of coal-fired power plant capacity in the grid and 12,000MW of natural gas by 2041, and add more than 60,000MW of wind, solar and battery resources.
With the energy transition, the amount of currently existing nameplate capacity in MISO will shrink to 146,000MW in 20 years' time from 196,000MW this year, and existing accredited capacity will drop to 112,000MW from 162,000MW.
MISO is also expecting capacity factors at coal and natural gas units to decline. But MISO expects electricity demand on the grid to grow over that time period.
Some parts of the grid are already facing challenges.
MISO's north and central regions had a combined roughly 1,200MW shortfall in the grid operator's 2022-23 planning resource auction in April. And the grid operator requested generator Ameren delay retiring two units of the Rush Island coal-fired power plant, which had been scheduled to close this year.
The capacity deficit could be system-wide next year if generators' addition plans are delayed and companies move forward with planned retirements, MISO staff warned last week. Even if new power is installed as planned, there could be a deficit in capacity across the grid in 2027, they said in slides of their draft report presentation.
In 2027, the amount of accredited existing capacity in MISO may have shrunk to 141,000MW from 162,000MW this year, grid operator staff projected.
MISO serves about 42mn people in 15 central US states and parts of Canada.
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Japan mulls seeking more gas-fired capacity in auction
Japan mulls seeking more gas-fired capacity in auction
Osaka, 1 July (Argus) — Japan is considering further adding to gas-fired power generation capacity through its long-term zero emissions power capacity auction, given forecasts of rising electricity demand with the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence. A working group under the trade and industry ministry Meti has proposed to look for an additional 4GW of gas-fired capacity over two fiscal years from April 2024-March 2026 via a clean power auction. This came after awarded gas-fired capacity reached 5.76GW in the first auction held in January , with the auction seeking about 6GW over three years. The second auction — which Tokyo plans to hold in January 2025 — could seek 2.24GW, including the remaining 0.24GW in the first auction, for 2024-25 and another 2GW for 2025-26 in a third auction, the working group suggested. It has also proposed to extend the period within which awarded gas-fired projects have to start operations to eight years from the previous six years, given current resource shortages at plant manufacturers. Japan has launched the auction system to spur investment in clean power sources by securing funding in advance to drive the country's decarbonisation towards 2050. This generally targets clean power sources — such as renewables, nuclear, storage battery, biomass, hydrogen and ammonia. But the scheme also applies to new power plants burning regasified LNG as an immediate measure to ensure stable power supplies, subject to a gradual switch from gas to cleaner energy sources. These measures will not necessarily lead to increased demand for LNG, as Japanese import demand for the fuel would further come under pressure from expanded use of renewables and nuclear power. But the power sector will have to secure enough capacity to meet peak demand, especially with power consumption by data centres and semiconductor producers expected to continue to increase. Japan's peak power demand in 2033-34 is forecast at 161GW, up from an estimated 159GW in 2024-25, as the country's digital push will more than offset the impact of falling population and further energy saving efforts, according to the nationwide transmission system operator Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operator. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia's coal exports edge higher in April
Indonesia's coal exports edge higher in April
Singapore, 1 July (Argus) — Indonesia's coal exports in April edged higher from a year earlier, led by a growth in shipments to India and southeast Asia. The country exported 44.54mn t of coal in April, up by 2.2pc from a year earlier, customs data show. But the exports fell from 46.1mn t in March . The data includes all types of coal such as thermal as well as coking coal. Indonesia exported about 175.58mn t of coal in January-April, up from 168.5mn t during the same period a year earlier. The country could export a total of 526.68mn t this year at the current pace of 43.89mn t/month, up from 521.1mn t a year earlier, according to Argus calculations based on the customs data. The year-on-year increase in April exports was mainly supported by a rise in demand from India, the world's second-largest coal importer, as utilities there looked to bulk up purchases to replenish stocks for the summer season. Shipments to India in April rose by 8.5pc on the year and by 4.8pc on the month to 11.03mn t, according to the data. The exports were supported by strong demand from utilities with an increase in coal-fired generation. India's overall coal-fired generation — which meets most of the country's power requirements — rose to 116.5TWh in April, up from 106TWh a year earlier, according to data from the country's Central Electricity Authority. April's coal-fired generation was also higher than March's 112.5TWh because heatwaves led to increased air-conditioning use. Indonesian exports also rose to cater for increased demand from southeast Asia. Exports to the region in April rose by 36pc on the year and by 21pc from March to 11.03mn t. This was led by a steady rise in exports to Vietnam, where shipments more than doubled to 2.86mn t from 1.35mn t a year earlier and 2.03mn t in March. The demand was led by utilities as coal-fired generation rose to around 16.5TWh in April, up from an estimated 11.89TWh a year earlier, to cater for an increase in power demand during the dry season. Vietnamese coal imports reached 6.5mn t in May , up from 4.97mn t a year earlier, and from 5.9mn t in April, provisional customs data show. Shipments to China — the world's largest coal importer — accounted for nearly 35pc of Indonesian exports at 15.57mn t, down from 18.5mn t a year earlier and 19.26mn t in March. The drop came as Chinese utilities slowed down purchases of seaborne cargoes in line with the softness in thermal power generation. China's thermal power generation, which mainly uses coal, fell to 454TWh in May from 471TWh a year earlier and 459TWh in April, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. China's imports of thermal coal — including non-coking bituminous coal, sub-bituminous coal, and lignite — totalled 32.7mn t, down from 31.4mn t a year earlier and from 32.9mn t in May, Chinese customs data show. Output rises A rise in Indonesian coal production supported higher exports in January-April. Output during the period rose to 266.1mn t, up by 9.2pc from a year earlier, according to data from the country's energy ministry (ESDM). But the output in May and June is estimated to have slipped, taking the year-to-date tally to about 371mn t, down by 2.5pc from a year earlier. The data will likely be revised, as output is frequently reviewed in Indonesia because of a lag in some producers' reporting. Indonesian output could face pressure from heavy rains in parts of key coal-producing Kalimantan region, while production cutbacks could also affect overall production. Some coal producers could trim output in response to ongoing prices in the international market. Argus assessed Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal at $52.86/t fob Kalimantan on 28 June, down by 6.4pc from $57.50/t on 8 March, the highest level for 2024. It is also sharply down from a 2023 peak of $90.41/t in January last year. Weaker output could dent the export trajectory, but coal exports in May are estimated at 44.12mn t, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler, up from 41.47mn t a year earlier. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Indonesian coal exports (mn t) Indonesia Jan-Apr coal exports by destination (mn t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fire shuts Anglo American’s Australian coking coal mine
Fire shuts Anglo American’s Australian coking coal mine
Sydney, 1 July (Argus) — UK-South African mining firm Anglo American has closed its 5mn t/yr Grosvenor coking coal mine in the Bowen basin region of Australia's Queensland, after a fire broke out underground. The methane gas ignition occurred on 29 June and it is likely to take several months before the mine can restart given the damage underground, according to Anglo American. Independent regulator Resources, Safety and Health Queensland said it was assisting the firm to safely seal the mine on 1 July. Grosvenor was expected to deliver 1.2mn t of coal in July-December, down from 2.3mn t in January-June, because of a planned longwall move in the second half of 2024. Anglo American's steelmaking coal business was budgeted to produce 15mn-17mn t of coking coal in 2024 and the firm will update this guidance as more information becomes available. Anglo American is looking to exit its coal mining operations in Australia , after rejecting a takeover offer from Australian mining firm BHP. It has struggled to manage the build-up of methane from its Queensland mines over the past few years. Operations at Australia's Moranbah North mine was closed from March-May 2022, after a fatal accident raised safety concerns. The producer also stalled operations at the Grosvenor mine in May 2020 because of gas ignition issues. Argus assessed the premium hard low-volatile coking coal price at $234/t fob Australia on 28 June, down from a year-to-date high of $336.25/t on 12 January. By Jo Clarke Australian metallurgical coal prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Supreme Court ends 'deference' to regulators
US Supreme Court ends 'deference' to regulators
Washington, 28 June (Argus) — The US Supreme Court's conservative majority, in one of its most significant rulings in years, has thrown out a landmark, 40-year-old precedent under which courts have offered federal agencies significant leeway in deciding how to regulate the energy sector and other industries. In a 6-3 ruling that marks a major blow to President Joe Biden's administration, the court's conservatives overturned its 1984 ruling Chevron v. NRDC that for decades has served as a cornerstone for how judges should review the legality of federal regulations when a statute is not clear. But chief justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said experience has shown the precedent is "unworkable" and became an "impediment, rather than an aid" for courts to analyze what a specific law requires. "All that remains of Chevron is a decaying husk with bold pretensions," the opinion said. For decades, under what is now known as Chevron deference, courts were first required to review if a law was clear and if not, to defer to an agency's interpretation so long as the government's reading was reasonable. But the court's majority said the landmark precedent has become a source of unpredictability, allowing any ambiguity in a law to be a "license authorizing an agency to change positions as much as it likes." Roberts wrote that the federal courts can no longer defer to an agency's interpretation "simply because" a law is ambiguous. "Chevron is overruled," Roberts writes. "Courts must exercise their independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority." The court's ruling, named Loper Bright Enterprises v. Gina Raimando, focuses on lawsuits from herring fishers who opposed a rule that could require them to pay about $710 per day for an at-sea observer to verify compliance with regional catch limits. The US Commerce Department said it believes it interpreted the law correctly, but the fishers said the "best interpretation" of the statute was that it did not apply to herring fishers. The court's three liberal justices dissented from the ruling, which they said will likely result in "large-scale disruptions" by putting federal judges in the position of having to rule on the merits of a variety of scientific and technical judgments, without the benefit of expertise that regulators have developed over the course of decades. Overturning Chevron will put courts "at the apex" of policy decisions on every conceivable topic, including climate change, health care, finance, transportation, artificial intelligence and other issues where courts lack specific expertise, judge Elena Kagan wrote. "In every sphere of current or future federal regulations, expect courts from now on to play a commanding role," Kagan wrote. The Supreme Court for years has been chipping away at the importance of Chevron deference, such as a 2022 ruling where it created the "major questions doctrine" to invalidate a greenhouse gas emission rule limits for power plants. That doctrine attempts to prohibit agencies from resolving issues that have "vast economic and political significance" without clear direction from the US Congress. That has led regulators to be hesitant in relying on Chevron to defend their regulations in court. The Supreme Court last cited the precedent in 2016. The ruling comes a day after the Supreme Court's conservatives, in another 6-3 ruling , dramatically curtailed the ability of the US Securities and Exchange Commission — and likely many other federal agencies — to use in-house tribunals to impose civil penalties. The court ruled those enforcement cases instead need to be filed as jury trials. That change is expected to curtail enforcement of securities fraud, since court cases are more resource-intensive. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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