New York faces huge clean energy buildout
New York needs to add or refurbish almost 100,000MW of zero-emissions generation to meet its clean energy goals, the state's grid operator said in a new report.
The state will need between 111,000-124,000MW of clean energy generation by 2040 to meet its goal of a zero-emission grid by that year, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) said today in its 2021-2040 System and Resource Outlook. At least 95,000MW of that total would need to come from new projects or modifications to existing plants, assuming the state's remaining fossil fuel-fired stations are taken off line.
New York's total generating capacity at present is a bit under 37,500MW. Electrifying buildings and transportation, part of broader decarbonization efforts, will "rapidly" increase energy demand.
The state is striving to reach 70pc renewable energy by 2030, which expands to the 100pc clean energy by 2040 mandate. New York will need another 20,000MW of operating renewable capacity to just meet the earlier target.
"The sheer scale of resources needed to satisfy system reliability and policy requirements within the next 20-years is unprecedented," NYISO said.
Based on two scenarios modeled by NYISO, the state by 2040 will need between 27,000-45,000MW of "dispatchable emissions-free resources" such as hydrogen, modular nuclear and renewable natural gas, which are "essential to the grid of the future" but "not commercially viable today." Deploying these cost-effectively at scale will require public and private investments into the technologies, and even then deployment timelines may extend beyond New York's policy deadlines.
Without those resources, New York would "likely" need to retain fossil fuel generation past 2040 to ensure the grid's reliability.
Even with the new capacity, it is unclear whether the state would achieve fully realize its broader decarbonization goals, with the grid operator noting that it had not identified the resources necessary to cut the state's greenhouse gas emissions by 85pc by 2050.
Transmission constraints remain a hurdle as well, with limitations poised to force curtailments of renewable generation by at least 5mn MWh in 2030 and 10mn MWh in 2035. Those losses translate into an overall 5pc decrease in the amount of renewable power procured, with the state therefore unable to claim it toward clean energy goals.
New York will also have to be mindful of changing conditions in neighboring grids linked with its system, as nuclear refurbishments and retirements in the Canadian province of Ontario and surplus generation in other locations could result in the state importing fossil fuel-fired generation, which would undercut the state's attempts to decarbonize the grid.
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Brazil's Bndes backs reforestation firm
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Sao Paulo, 29 August (Argus) — Brazil's Bndes development bank approved R160mn ($28.7mn) in financing for reforestation company Mombak, which will use the funding for projects in Para state that will generate carbon offsets to be sold in the international market. The company has planted over 3mn native tree species in Para as part of its broader efforts to recover degraded areas in the Amazon basin where deforestation levels are highest. Mombak will receive R80mn from the Bndes' Climate fund and another R80mn from the banks' Finem line of credit. This is not Mobak's first project to sell carbon offsets. The company has a deal with Microsoft for 1.5mn offsets and with automobile racing firm McLaren. The funding is part of a partnership between Bndes and the environment ministry to reduce deforestation in an area known as the "deforestation arch" in the Amazon, with the goal of recovering 6mn hectares (ha) of degraded area in this region by 2030 and 18mn ha by 2050. This environmentally vulnerable region has received R1bn in financing since it was officially targeted at the Cop 28 UN climate talks. Mombak was founded in 2021 by former executives from Brazilian tech companies 99 and Nubank. The company has raised roughly R1bn in capital to invest in reforestation projects. It also received backing from the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Bain Capital, French insurance company AXA and the Rockefeller Foundation. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK eyes new environmental guidance for oil, gas: Update
UK eyes new environmental guidance for oil, gas: Update
Adds comment from Shell London, 29 August (Argus) — The UK government will develop new environmental guidance for oil and gas firms, in the light of a recent Supreme Court decision that ruled consent for an oil development was unlawful, as the scope 3 emissions — those from burning the oil produced — were not considered. The ruling means that "end use emissions from the burning of extracted hydrocarbons need to be assessed", the government said today. The government will consult on the new guidance and aims to conclude the process "by spring 2025", it said today. It will in the meantime halt and defer the assessment of any environmental statements related to oil and gas extraction and storage activities until the new guidance is in place, including statements that are already being assessed. The Supreme Court in June ruled that Surrey County Council's decision to permit an oil development was "unlawful because the end use atmospheric emissions from burning the extracted oil were not assessed as part of the environmental impact assessment". The government also confirmed that it will not challenge judicial reviews brought against the development consent granted to the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields in the North Sea. A judicial review in the UK is a challenge to the way in which a decision has been made by a public body, focusing on the procedures followed rather than the conclusion reached. Environmental campaign groups Greenpeace and Uplift launched legal challenges in December seeking a judicial review of the government's decision to permit Rosebank. Norway's state-owned Equinor and London-listed Ithaca hold 80pc and 20pc of Rosebank, respectively. Greenpeace in July 2022 separately filed a legal challenge against the permitting of Shell's Jackdaw field. "This litigation does not mean the licences for Jackdaw and Rosebank have been withdrawn", the government said. The Labour government, voted into office in July , pledged not to issue any new oil, gas or coal licences, but also promised not to revoke existing ones. Equinor is "currently assessing the implications of today's announcement and will maintain close collaboration with all relevant stakeholders to advance the project. Rosebank is a vital project for the UK and is bringing benefits in terms of investment, job creation and energy security", the company told Argus today. Shell is "carefully considering the implications of today's announcement... we believe the Jackdaw field remains an important development for the UK, providing fuel to heat 1.4mn homes and supporting energy security, as other older gas fields reach the end of production", the company told Argus . North Sea oil and gas production "will be a key component of the UK energy landscape for decades to come", the government said today. The UK government introduced a climate compatibility checkpoint in September 2022, designed to ensure that oil and gas licensing fits UK climate goals. The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. The checkpoint, though, does not take into account scope 3 emissions. These typically make up between 80pc and 95pc of total oil and gas company emissions. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
London, 29 August (Argus) — The UK government will develop new environmental guidance for oil and gas firms, in the light of a recent Supreme Court decision that ruled consent for an oil development was unlawful, as the scope 3 emissions — those from burning the oil produced — were not considered. The ruling means that "end use emissions from the burning of extracted hydrocarbons need to be assessed", the government said today. The government will consult on the new guidance and aims to conclude the process "by spring 2025", it said today. It will in the meantime halt and defer the assessment of any environmental statements related to oil and gas extraction and storage activities until the new guidance is in place, including statements that are already being assessed. The Supreme Court in June ruled that Surrey County Council's decision to permit an oil development was "unlawful because the end use atmospheric emissions from burning the extracted oil were not assessed as part of the environmental impact assessment". The government also confirmed that it will not challenge judicial reviews brought against the development consent granted to the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields in the North Sea. A judicial review in the UK is a challenge to the way in which a decision has been made by a public body, focusing on the procedures followed rather than the conclusion reached. Environmental campaign groups Greenpeace and Uplift launched legal challenges in December seeking a judicial review of the government's decision to permit Rosebank. Norway's state-owned Equinor and London-listed Ithaca hold 80pc and 20pc of Rosebank, respectively. Greenpeace in July 2022 separately filed a legal challenge against the permitting of Shell's Jackdaw field. "This litigation does not mean the licences for Jackdaw and Rosebank have been withdrawn", the government said. The Labour government, voted into office in July , pledged not to issue any new oil, gas or coal licences, but also promised not to revoke existing ones. Equinor is "currently assessing the implications of today's announcement and will maintain close collaboration with all relevant stakeholders to advance the project. Rosebank is a vital project for the UK and is bringing benefits in terms of investment, job creation and energy security", the company told Argus today. North Sea oil and gas production "will be a key component of the UK energy landscape for decades to come", the government said today. Argus has also contacted Shell for comment. The UK government introduced a climate compatibility checkpoint in September 2022, designed to ensure that oil and gas licensing fits UK climate goals. The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. The checkpoint, though, does not take into account scope 3 emissions. These typically make up between 80pc and 95pc of total oil and gas company emissions. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Greece expects 70pc fall in gas demand by 2050
Greece expects 70pc fall in gas demand by 2050
London, 28 August (Argus) — Greek gas demand will fall by nearly 70pc by 2050 as increasing renewable power installations displace gas in the power generation mix, according to Greece's revised National Climate and Energy Plan (NECP) put out for consultation last week. Gas consumption falls to 44.1TWh in 2030 and then to 16.2TWh by 2050 from 51.2TWh in 2022, under projections in the NECP. This will be driven by renewables displacing gas in the power mix, the replacement of gas units for heating in residential and industrial contexts through electrification, and a rise in the production of biogas and biomethane. Specifically for industry, the NECP assumes that gas demand will gradually decline to just 900GWh by 2050 from 6.6TWh in 2022, while in the commercial and public sector it will drop to 200GWh ( see gas table ). The NECP assumes a "dramatic increase in the electrification of building heating" through heat pumps, taking into account the ban on the sale of new oil and gas boilers from 2025, new EU laws on energy efficiency requirements in buildings, and the inclusion of building emissions in the EU emissions trading system. The power sector accounts for the majority of Greek gas demand. The NECP assumes that gas-fired power generation will decline to 10.4TWh by 2030 and 4.8TWh by 2050, far below 19.1TWh in 2022. Gas is displaced by solar and wind, with renewables contributing 96pc of domestic power generation by the middle of the century ( see power table ). But the NECP still foresees installed gas-fired capacity remaining high later into the decade, reaching a peak installed capacity of 7.9GW in 2030 before falling back to 6.4GW in 2050, slightly above 6.3GW in 2022. The government expects Greece to become a net power exporter already in 2035, having been a net importer of 3.5TWh in 2022. Gas-fired plants will remain "essential to ensure, in all cases, the stability and security of supply of the electricity system throughout the energy transition period", the NECP says. The plan foresees the need for a national compensation mechanism for gas-fired plants, particularly given the likely expansion of energy storage such as batteries further displacing gas from the power mix in 2030-40. Even some oil plants will potentially need to remain in cold reserve in case of emergency, mostly to ensure supply to some of the Greek islands. And while the plan projects a nearly 70pc drop in gas demand by 2050, it still envisages the expansion of the national transmission system, mostly to facilitate Greece becoming "the main energy hub of the wider region". 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In the past two years, "investigations have been accelerated" and drilling decisions are expected in the next two years. If final investment decisions are taken, new domestic production could come on line before the end of the decade. Preliminary estimates put potential and probable reserves in Greece at about 680bn m³, which if exploited would make Greece an exporter already by 2030, according to the NECP. More domestic production increases revenues for the Greek state, which can partly be used to implement the energy transition, the government said. By Brendan A'Hearn Projected annual power production by source TWh/yr 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Lignite 5.8 4.5 - - - - - Natural gas 19.1 12.2 10.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.8 Oil 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 - - Biomass and biogas 0.1 0.5 0.4 - - - - Solar 7.1 12.5 20.3 27.0 37.1 43.8 49.2 Onshore wind 10.9 15.8 20.7 21.9 25.5 30.3 30.2 Offshore wind - - 0.6 14.7 21.7 30.6 43.6 Hydro 3.9 5.8 6.4 7.4 7.7 8.6 9.1 Net imports 3.5 3.2 1.8 -3.7 -6.7 -11.1 -6.6 — Greek NECP Industrial and residential/commercial gas demand TWh/yr 2022 2030 2035 2040 2050 Industrial gas demand 6.6 4.9 4.6 1.4 0.9 Residential/commercial gas demand 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 — Greek NECP Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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