US HRC: Spot prices flat, mills push increases

Spanish Market: Metals
29/11/22

US hot rolled coil (HRC) spot prices were flat this week as the market began to digest flat-rolled price increases announced by two steelmakers on Monday.

The Argus weekly domestic US HRC Midwest assessment was flat at $627.50/st, while the southern assessment slipped by $1.75/st to $626.75/st.

HRC lead times in the Midwest increased to 4-5 weeks from 3-4 weeks.

Steelmakers Cleveland-Cliffs and US Steel both increased prices by $60/st to start the week. US Steel was reported to be targeting base pricing of $680-700/st for HRC, and around $950/st for cold rolled coil (CRC) and hot dipped galvanized (HDG) coil products.

Offers for HRC were reported between $580-700/st, a wide range reflecting the uncertainty created by the two price announcements.

Many viewed the price announcements as an attempt by steelmakers to stop persistent price declines. Few expect buyers to resume purchasing given the slowdown expected in the market as the Christmas and New Year holidays approach.

Since the beginning of the year prices have fallen by 60pc amid oversupply. Market participants are concerned that oversupply will continue in 2023 and potentially worsen.

Only US Steel has made public announcements of idling production, taking down two blast furnaces, one each at its Indiana and Pennsylvania integrated steel mills.

Three more electric arc furnace (EAF) flat-rolled steelmakers are expected to ramp up production more in the coming months. In Kentucky, Nucor's Gallatin mill is expected to ramp up its now-3mn st/yr flat-rolled mill in the first quarter, a delay to previous expectations. That mill completed integration of a 1.4mn st/yr expansion in June.

In Texas, Steel Dynamics' Sinton 3mn st/yr flat-rolled mill is targeting an 80pc utilization rate in 2023, adding 2.4mn st of production, while in Ohio North Star BlueScope is working to ramp up its 937,000st/yr expansion at its flat-rolled mill, which now has a total production capacity of 3.25mn st/yr.

Initial reads of the December scrap trade are for pricing to be sideways compared to November levels. The #1 busheling scrap pricing has fallen the past seven consecutive months.

President Joe Biden has called on Congress to pass legislation that would impose a labor contract on railroads and labor unions, a move that would avert a possible strike on 9 December.

A strike could grind much of the US economy to a halt, including shipments of scrap into steel mills and finished steel out of them.

The Argus HRC import assessment into Houston rose by $30/st to $640/st ddp. It is unclear how possible price hikes in the US could lead to increased interest in import volumes.

The spread between #1 busheling scrap delivered US Midwest mills and HRC was flat at $340/st.

A year ago the spread was $1,251/st as HRC prices were beginning to decline from record-high levels.

The Argus weekly domestic US cold-rolled coil (CRC) assessment was flat at $850/st while the hot dipped galvanized (HDG) coil assessment was also flat at $848.75/st.

Lead times for CRC fell to 5-6 weeks from 5-7 weeks while HDG rose to 5-6 weeks from 5 weeks.

The CME HRC Midwest futures market was mostly up, with the futures prices remaining in contango. January prices rose by $10/st to $710/st, while February prices moved up by $14/st to $725/st. March prices edged up by $2/st to $727/st, while April prices increased by $10/st to $745/st. May prices rose by $5/st to $745/st, and June prices slipped by $3/st to $750/st.

Plate

The Argus weekly domestic US ex-works plate assessment was flat at $1,600/st.

Lead times fell to fiveweeks from 5-6 weeks.

The plate delivered assessment was flat at $1,650/st.

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01/04/25

ArcelorMittal raises NW EU HRC offer to €700/t

London, 1 April (Argus) — European market leader ArcelorMittal has raised its hot-rolled coil (HRC) offer to €700/t base in the north. Its previous offer was €680/t base. The producer recently has seen an increase in enquiries and bookings, aided by the steel safeguard review. This trend has been most prevalent on HRC in the north, as well as cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanised across Europe. European mills have been in no rush to sell, with delivery performances under pressure from some as a result of low utilisation rates and issues at some producers causing backlogs. At the same time, mills expect import arrivals to fall in the coming months, although there could be some overhang this quota period, after the safeguard review and imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties on Egypt, Japan and Vietnam. In the futures market today, a fourth-quarter strip traded at €670/t, broadly in line with the settlement on 31 March. The physical market is largely quiet, as participants wait to see how much material clears today and what tariffs are announced by US president Donald Trump. North EU mill margins have nearly reached a year-long high in recent days, with the spread for NW EU HRC over blast furnace costs having reached €181/ on 31 March, the highest level since €189/t on 5 April. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU stainless safeguards, metal plan meet mixed reaction

31/03/25

EU stainless safeguards, metal plan meet mixed reaction

London, 31 March (Argus) — Europe's stainless steel industry has had a mixed reaction to the European Commission's safeguard steel review and its action plan to protect the bloc's metals industry, both announced on 11 March. Steelmakers have welcomed greater commitment from policy makers to support the sector, but are still concerned at a lack of concrete commitment to significant protectionist measures, while traders, service centres and scrap suppliers are worried the most radical proposals could severely damage their businesses. The European Commission's review of definitive safeguard measures on imports of certain steel products identified no new import pressure for stainless cold rolled sheets and strips, and left tariff rate quotas for the next 15 months virtually unchanged even as carryovers and unused quota access were removed. And the commission's European Steel and Metals Action Plan included proposals to curb imports of finished steel and exports of scrap alongside the extension of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to potentially include raw material exports and downstream products. European stainless steel flat producers — battling weak medium-term demand and a high cost structure — expressed disappointment on the absence of protectionism in the safeguard review through to July 2026, but told Argus they were encouraged by proposals in the Action Plan that acknowledge the need to to curb imports for domestic industry's long term health. "The industry remains threatened by global excess capacities and by global distortions from China and other countries that artificially support their domestic industries or circumvent the current measures," Finnish producer Outokumpu told Argus . "These challenges need to be mitigated with more assertive solutions, including replacing current safeguards with more effective measures from July 2026." European trading groups surveyed by Argus welcomed the stability offered by the unchanged import quotas as the industry navigates other pressures — such as high energy prices and US tariffs — but said they expect lobbying by producers to drive a wave of new measures in the fourth quarter of this year, with stainless steel-specific safeguards likely to be implemented from next year. "Current quotas will only last this year, if you ask me," a trader said. "We expect new regulation to be announced in September/October." A key area of focus for the industry is the possible introduction of the melt-and-pour clause, which determines the origin of goods by the location at which the metal is originally melted, and disregards third countries where further processing may take place for circumvention of anti-dumping duties. The EU stopped short of immediately implementing this clause as part of the Action Plan, and will conduct further assessment of the action. But market participants expect [consultation](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2670486] on the policy will start after the current safeguard period ends. Several large European stainless steel producers are heard to be importing slab from Asia, and traders told Argus they were relieved that melt and pour is not coming into play this year. A Spanish trader said the clause will level the playing field for European producers, but a hasty implementation this year would have simply added to costs for both producers and consumers in the near term. Outokumpu said it welcomes the melt-and-pour proposals as part of a wider anti-circumvention drive that it said is required in Europe. The EU's Action Plan also calls for the need to address carbon leakage of exported steel through a potential extension of the CBAM to include exports. Trading groups told Argus this will be difficult to implement across the spectrum of trading partners, and may render exports uncompetitive to the detriment of European service centre groups. Outokumpu called upon the need to leverage the EU's competitive advantage by including Scope 2 emissions within any CBAM regulation for downstream products. "It is critical to prevent European steel producers from being placed at a disadvantage from imports with higher emissions from energy usage," the group said. "Outokumpu uses low-carbon energy across its operations with a high-recycling rate, so a fair benchmark definition is necessary to ensure that our low-emission production receives the competitive advantage it deserves." The EU's action plan also proposes the potential introduction of export duties for all steel scrap in order to limit scrap leakage from the bloc. Stainless steel scrap traders surveyed by Argus said there was no chance such a move would ever be implemented as Europe simply cannot consume all the scrap it produces, and that recyclers use exports to keep prices at a level that encourages further investment. "We would drown in scrap if exports fell," a trader said. "Prices would decrease sharply and work like a subsidiary for an antique industry. High-end recycling plants need high prices to process complex materials which would end up in landfill otherwise. No investments would be made if prices are pushed into the ground." Trade bodies BIR and EuRIC suggested a more rational move could be to introduce mandatory recycled content targets for metals products that incentivises domestic demand and usage for scrap, while also allowing scrap to move freely to export markets. By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US consumer confidence down on policy angst

28/03/25

US consumer confidence down on policy angst

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — The University of Michigan's gauge of consumer sentiment fell in March to the lowest level since November 2022, led by a slump in expectations over the "potential for pain" from US economic policies introduced by the new administration. Sentiment fell to 57, down from 64.7 in February and 79.4 in March 2024, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey released Friday. The final reading for March was lower than the preliminary reading. The sentiment index fell to a record low of 50 in June 2022 on inflation concerns. The index of consumer expectations fell to 52.6, the lowest since July 2022, from 64 in February and 77.4 in March last year. The expectations index has lost more than 30pc since November last year. "Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments," the survey director Joanne Hsu said. The decline "reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations: Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations … for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment and inflation," Hsu said. Current economic conditions slipped to 63.8 in March from 65.7 in February and 82.5 last March. Two thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 5pc this month, the highest reading since November 2022, from 4.3pc last month. The University of Michigan survey comes three days after The Conference Board's preliminary Consumer Expectations Index fell in March to its lowest in 12 years, to below a threshold that "usually signals" a recession. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK steel importers oppose other countries' caps

28/03/25

UK steel importers oppose other countries' caps

London, 28 March (Argus) — Steel importers in the UK suggest the imposition of a cap on any other countries' quotas could effectively stop trade, given the small volume of the quotas. In a recent submission to the Trade Remedies Authority, UK Steel said 15pc caps should be introduced on other countries quotas for hot-dip galvanised, plate and rebar. But in its submission to the TRA, trading firm Salzgitter Mannesmann argues that any cap based on a percentage of the quota "will ultimately most likely remove rather than reduce imports as shipments from many third countries, notably the far east, require a certain base volume to ship economically to the UK". Other trading firms and service centres told Argus they share the same view. Salzgitter Mannesmann also suggested a new country quotas for individual importers be added to the safeguard based on their imports over the past two or three years. The only local producer of hot-dip galvanised coil, Tata Steel, would be likely to argue against this as volumes from some countries, notably Vietnam, have increased dramatically in recent years. Salzgitter Mannesmann also suggests Tata Steel cannot produce hot-rolled coil over 1.85m wide, for which the UK has to totally rely on imports. Traders have for some time argued that there should be no import constraints on material, such as 2m wide, as there can be no injury to the producer on grades it cannot produce. Service centre Sebden Steel said the current measures make it "impossible" for the UK to be flooded with cheap foreign imports, and that people are "misinformed by mainstream media and UK Steel". "The UK producer is in a safe place already and any additional measures will only serve to cause injury to independent steel service centres, independent steel stockholders and the UK manufacturing base, which will all be faced with a further tightening of the supply chain and increased costs," it said. Importers, unsurprisingly, question why Tata Steel, now a re-roller until its electric arc furnaces are installed, can import on much more favourable terms than others. Tata has a much bigger quota than the rest of the market, at around 2.3mn t, but the main problem for importers is that the company has fewer constraints on where it can source, with only a 40pc cap on any given country within that quota. Independent service centres, which all compete with Tata Distribution, can only import much smaller quantities from different locations, given the fragmented composition of quotas; the other countries quota for 1A, for example, is less than 100,000 t/yr. EU mills have far and away the largest quota to sell 1A HRC into the UK, but given their higher costs compared with Asian producers, they struggle to compete; Tata's imports come from all over the world, as well as some from its sister mill in IJmuiden, the Netherlands. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's Aurelia Metals to boost Cu, Zn processing

28/03/25

Australia's Aurelia Metals to boost Cu, Zn processing

Perth, 28 March (Argus) — Australian metal producer Aurelia Metals is set to triple mixed metal ore processing capacity of ore from its Federation mine, after authorities in New South Wales state approved a project consent change. Aurelia produces mixed metal ore at its 600,000 t/yr Federation mine. It then hauls ore to its nearby Peak processing centre to produce a range of base and precious metals, including zinc, copper, lead, and gold. The company has been allowed to move only 200,000 t/yr of ore between its two NSW sites since Federation opened in mid-2024, because of consent restrictions. But the latest change allows it to move 600,000 t/yr of ore to Peak, the company announced on 28 March. Aurelia's updated consent comes as it continues to ramp up production at Federation. The company only processed 16,500t of Federation ore in October-December 2024, recovering 55t of copper, 626t of lead, 1,263t of zinc, and 502oz of gold. Aurelia is increasing its base metal production capacity, despite other Australian producers doing the opposite. Australian metal firm IGO paused its Forrestania nickel project in July-September 2024, and will close its Nova copper and nickel mine in 2027. But this phenomenon is not unique to Australia. Global metal producer Glencore cut its total copper output by 6pc in 2024, following planned production declines in Chile and Peru, and unplanned disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Copper prices have been quite volatile over the last year. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) copper cash price stood at $8,696/t on 27 March 2024, before bouncing between a high of $10,857/t and a low of $8,620/t over the next 12 months. LME's copper price stood at $9,787/t on 27 March. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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