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US, Australia agree on minerals, emissions, energy pact

  • Spanish Market: Biofuels, Coal, Emissions, Hydrogen, Metals, Natural gas
  • 22/05/23

The US has agreed to work with Australia on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction, with US president Joe Biden promising to advocate for Australia's inclusion for tax credits under his $369bn Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese announced the bilateral cooperation under a climate, critical minerals and clean energy transformation compact, establishing climate and clean energy as a "central pillar" of the US-Australian alliance. The deal was announced on the sidelines of the G7 meeting taking place in the Japan's Hiroshima, which has focused on clean energy and manufacturing.

Albanese welcomed the IRA as the "largest ever action" to tackle climate change, but concern has been building about the effects the tax credit policy will have in drawing renewable energy investment away from key US allies such as Japan, the EU and Australia, while also harming foreign manufacturers.

Albanese said Biden will push the US Congress to treat Australian suppliers and activity as "domestic activity in the United States" for the purpose of the Defense Production Act, given that the nations work together on nuclear submarines.

"If we think about industries like hydrogen, without that support, there would be a massive incentive for hydrogen-based industries to be based in the United States," Albanese said. "So the big risk with the Inflation Reduction Act to the world because we need to reduce the world's emissions, not just that one nation state, is that you'll see capital leave Australia to go to the United States. This is about addressing that."

Australia assures Japan over gas, coal security

Albanese has separately promised his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida that reliable energy supplies will continue to flow, following an unusual intervention in domestic politics by the Japanese ambassador to Australia last year.

"The prime minister underscored Australia's commitment to remaining a reliable supplier of energy to Japan as both countries transition to net zero," a statement from Albanese's office said.

Australia provides about 70pc of Japan's coal imports and 40pc of its gas imports. Japanese ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami last year said business and government leaders were concerned over some policies, including a coal royalty increase in the state of Queensland.

Proposed gas developments in Australia's north will face stronger regulatory scrutiny under changes to climate laws that require net zero scope 1 CO2 emissions from new projects. Japan is a major investor in Australian gas and LNG, including the 8.9mn t/yr Inpex-operated Ichthys LNG project near Darwin, the nation's largest single foreign investment.


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14/01/25

Australia's Jan-Nov tallow exports hit record high

Australia's Jan-Nov tallow exports hit record high

Sydney, 14 January (Argus) — Australian tallow exports during January-November 2024 reached the highest on record, surpassing the previous record for exports in the whole of 2023. Australia exported 517,364t of tallow in the first 11 months of 2024, surpassing the 504,409t of tallow in 2023, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) accessed through Global Trade Tracker (GTT) (see graph) . The record export number was the result of a larger cattle herd, high slaughter rates and favourable weather conditions, while growing demand from the biofuels sector has also helped boost exports. Domestic cattle slaughter rates stood at 2.24mn head in July-September, the highest since the same period in 2015, because of processors' concerted effort to increase capacity. Australia's beef production hit a record high in July-September at 690,694t, according to ABS data. Over 90pc of Australian tallow was exported to either Singapore or the US in the first 11 months of the year, with each country receiving 53.2pc and 37.6pc respectively, according to GTT data. Market participants have indicated Australian tallow trade flows may swing towards the US this year because of the newly released guidance on the 45Z tax credit in the country. Prices for lower carbon intensity feedstocks like tallow increased following the new guidance, while imported used cooking oil will not qualify for the tax credit. By Tom Woodlock Australian tallow exports (t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cliffs still seeks US Steel, pledges no closures


13/01/25
13/01/25

Cliffs still seeks US Steel, pledges no closures

Houston, 13 January (Argus) — Cleveland-Cliffs chief executive Lourenco Goncalves said today that he remains open to buying US Steel, promising to keep all of the acquired assets open. Goncalves said Ohio-based Cliffs still wants to buy Pennsylvania-based US Steel and would invest in the company's assets. "Of course, we are going to keep [US Steel mills] open," Goncalves told reporters on Monday. "We are going to make them bigger, we are going to make them better, we are going to produce more." His comments come 10 days after President Joe Biden blocked Japan-based Nippon Steel's agreement to buy US Steel for $15bn, citing national security concerns. Nippon had committed to invest $1.3bn in US Steel's mills and to not cut any of US Steel's production for 10 years without government approval. Cliffs tried to buy US Steel for $54/share with half paid in cash and half in company stock before US Steel agreed to go with Nippon's $55/share all-cash offer. Goncalves promise to not close any acquired assets comes as the US steel market remains oversupplied , according to market sources. Goncalves said he cannot make a bid for US Steel until the company and Nippon cancel their merger agreement. He also dismissed antitrust concerns over Cliffs owning all US iron ore mines and all US blast furnace capacity. A combined company would have Cliffs running the mining side of the business and US Steel running the steelmaking operations, he said. A US Steel-Cliffs merger would have 32.1mn short tons (st)/yr of flat rolled raw steel capacity, in addition to plate making and seamless tube production. Goncalves did not say how he would finance such a purchase. Cliffs had $3.8bn in liquidity as of 30 September, including $39mn of cash, according to a third-quarter presentation. US Steel had $4.05bn in liquidity in the same period, of which $1.77bn was cash. Nippon is trying to buy US Steel. Both companies have sued Biden and others in the government over the denial, and filed a separate lawsuit against Cliffs, Goncalves and United Steelworkers (USW) International president David McCall, who endorsed a takeover by Cliffs. By Rye Druzchetta Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November


13/01/25
13/01/25

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November

Mexico City, 13 January (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production edged up 0.1pc in November, as gains in autos and other manufacturing offset weaker construction, national statistics agency Inegi said. Mexican bank Banorte described the monthly increase as "rather small," noting it followed a 1.1pc decline in October and was largely driven by base comparison effects. The bank added that the overall industrial outlook remained "fragile." Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), increased by 0.7pc in November, though it failed to fully recover from a 1.7pc drop in October. Transportation manufacturing, a key subsector accounting for 12pc of the sector, rose by 3.8pc after a steep 4.3pc decline the prior month. Despite recent volatility, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production in 2024, reaching 3.99mn units. Yet, automaker association AMIA warned of potential challenges in 2025 because of economic uncertainty, which could affect investment and demand. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, increased by 0.1pc in November following a 1.1pc decline in October. Growth was driven by a 41.4pc jump in mining-related services, while oil and gas output fell by 2.4pc, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 1.8pc in November after modest gains of 0.2pc in October and 1.1pc in September. As industry eyes potential policy shifts under US president-elect Donald Trump, Banorte projected a weak start to 2025 for Mexico's industrial output. But it expects momentum to build as government spending on priority infrastructure projects "moves more decisively." By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

AI may boom on gas power, then turn to nuclear


13/01/25
13/01/25

AI may boom on gas power, then turn to nuclear

New York, 13 January (Argus) — The first tranche of new US data centers coming on line this decade to run electricity-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) software will probably rely mostly on power generated by natural gas, while the nuclear renaissance hoped for by Big Tech comes later in the 2030s. Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook-parent Meta and Google-parent Alphabet want clean, reliable power as quickly as possible so they can be early movers in the development of AI, which is rapidly advancing and finding new user bases around the world. While these companies do not relish the optics of powering AI development with fossil fuels, gas-fired power is widely expected to fulfill most of the gap between current supply and future demand through at least 2030. Unlike wind and solar, gas can be relied upon for steady, baseload power, a necessary ingredient for always-on data centers. And crucially, unlike nuclear, gas-related infrastructure can be built out quickly. The most recent additions to the US nuclear fleet, Vogtle units 3 and 4 in Georgia, took 15 years to build and cost $30bn, double the expected time and cost. A few decommissioned nuclear reactors can be restarted, as Microsoft is paying to do with a unit of Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania. But this low-hanging fruit will be quickly exhausted. Questions around the meter While there is broad agreement that gas will power the AI data center boom through at least 2030, questions remain about what this rapid gas-fired power build-out will look like. Data center operators can secure power in two ways: wade through the long, arduous interconnection process through which new customers connect to the grid, or bypass the grid altogether and secure their own personal electricity supply through so-called "behind-the-meter" agreements. Many in the gas industry are betting tech companies' need for speed will force them to opt for the latter. "The data centers are not going to wait," Alan Armstrong, chief executive of Williams, the largest US gas pipeline company, told Argus in an interview. "They are going to go to states that allow you to go behind the meter." In this scenario, construction of an AI data center in a state like Louisiana, for instance, might accompany construction of a new intrastate pipeline connecting the state's prolific Haynesville gas field with a new gas-fired power plant. Intrastate pipelines bypass the federal oversight triggered by interstate pipeline construction, and new gas power plants only take 2-3 years to build, East Daley Analytics analyst Zachary Krause told Argus . Most of the incremental power needed to run AI data centers this decade will be generated by new gas plants, Krause said. Even ExxonMobil in December said it was in talks to provide "fully islanded" gas-fired power to AI data centers. It claimed it could even capture 90pc of the CO2 emissions from power generation, appeasing tech companies' climate ambitions. ExxonMobil's non-grid gas generation fleet is "independent of utility timelines, so they can be installed at a pace that other alternatives — including US nuclear — just can't match," ExxonMobil chief financial officer Kathy Mikells said. But connecting to the grid may offer better reliability and economics than behind-the-meter gas power. If an off-grid gas generator trips off line, for instance, an always-on data center without back-up generation depending on that facility would be in trouble. Grid connection also allows generators to sell excess power into the grid. For those reasons, most new data centers this decade will rely on the grid as their primary power source, Adam Robinson, research associate at consultancy Enverus, told Argus . Small modular future But if the 2020s become the decade of gas-powered AI, the 2030s may be when nuclear-powered AI gets its due. The long-awaited nuclear renaissance may come not from conventional reactors, but from next-generation small modular reactors (SMRs), which can theoretically be built much faster and cheaper. No US SMRs yet exist, but given the number of SMR start-ups with expected start dates before 2030, and money pouring into the sector from the likes of Google and Microsoft, at least one of these next-generation reactors should be operating by 2030, Adam Stein, director of nuclear energy innovation at research center Breakthrough Institute, told Argus . SMRs' smaller price tag relative to conventional 1 GW nuclear reactors may also accelerate their adoption, Stein said. "Not every utility needs a GW-scale plant of any kind, but they might need a 300 or 600MW plant," he said. "So the total addressable market is larger for SMRs." By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Lithium prices unlikely to recover in 2025


13/01/25
13/01/25

Lithium prices unlikely to recover in 2025

London, 13 January (Argus) — Prices for lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) are unlikely to recover this year, according to market participants, owing to high inventories and Chinese overcapacity. While the vast majority of firms have either suspended or trimmed production at costs above Argus -assessed prices (see graph) , a number of other factors have weighed on price rises, including redundant Chinese lithium refining capacity, inventories of low and mid-grade concentrate and end-of-life LFP batteries. Chinese lepidolite, African low-grade ores and Brazilian tailings are "not immune" to low prices, according to supply chain consultantcy SC Insights. Prices are currently far below highs of $80,000/t in late 2022, although not at record lows by historical standards. "We have put our lithium plant in Zimbabwe on ice for now, margins are just too tight," a southern Africa-based producer said. The market could start to recover in the second half of 2026 as carmakers turn increasingly towards lower-cost lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, SC Insights said. Between 2025 and 2026, major carmakers will start "socialising the intensions of using more LFP and LFMP [lithium iron manganese phosphate]", with it especially vital that LFMP producers "react early and offer a cost-competitive solution in CAM/LIB [cathode active material/lithium-ion battery] spaces". SC Insights forecasts that global annual LCE production will tip over 2.5mn t of LCE by 2030 (see graph) , from just over 1mn t last year, based on the adoption of these newer battery chemistries. Buildout of this supply will depend, SC Insights said, on the proposed restriction of CAM/LIB technology by China. The buildout of Argentinian lithium production could be a key factor in 2025, according to SC Insights, after global mining giant Rio Tinto announced last October that it would buy Arcadium Lithium. Argentinian president Javier Milei and Rio Tinto held a meeting in December 2024 and although it is unclear what the results of that meeting were, the relationship between Rio Tinto and the Argentinian government could be important for the lithium market this year. Argentina holds the third-largest reserves of lithium at 3.6mn t behind Chile and Australia, and the second-largest pool of resources at 23mn t, behind Bolivia, according to the US Geological Survey in January. By Chris Welch Cost of production, lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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