US corn could struggle to compete in export market
US corn has lacked competitiveness so far in 2022-23, but has found steady demand in Mexico. The origin could struggle in 2023-24 in the face of reduced Chinese demand, particularly if weather conditions do not improve in the US corn belt.
Deteriorated export prospects to China
Dry conditions in the US corn belt could leave final output well below previous expectations if sufficient rainfall fails to materialise in the coming weeks, which would in turn constrain the origin's export prospects in 2023-24 and reduce its ability to compete with ample supplies in Brazil in the first part of the marketing year.
For the remainder of 2022-23, US corn exports in May-August could stand at 16.3mn t, assuming the US exports 37pc of its crop in those months, in line with the 10-year average. But China, one of the major recipients of US corn in the past few years, is due to import less corn than previously expected for the rest of 2022-23 and in 2023-24 largely because of increased feed wheat production domestically. Much of the remaining demand is likely to be picked up by Brazil because of the country's record corn crop and competitive prices.
That said, the US may have a short window of opportunity as Brazil struggles with logistics, with corn competing with soybeans and other commodities for internal shipping capacity to ports. The 2022-23 soybean exports are also still ongoing and are for now taking up much of the country's export capacity.
But Brazil's logistical constraints may not be enough to make substantial room for US corn exports to China. In 2022-23, before Brazil's record crop had hit the market, China had already cancelled over 1.5mn t of previously booked volumes, with over half a million tonnes cancelled in the week ending 8 June.
Mexico offers some hope
In contrast to China's reduced purchases, Mexico's receipts for US corn have been steady on the year and imports for 2023-24 are due to increase to 18mn t, from 17.2mn t estimated for 2022-23, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
Mexico partially lifted its ban on genetically modified (GM) corn earlier this year, which helped preserve the trade flow, but still bans its use for human consumption.
That said, if Brazilian corn widens its discount to US corn sufficiently in the coming months, it could gain market share in traditional US importing destinations.
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Brazil ups outlook for 2023-24 crop to 299mn t
Brazil ups outlook for 2023-24 crop to 299mn t
Sao Paulo, 11 July (Argus) — Brazil raised the outlook for its 2023-24 grain and oilseed crops for the third consecutive month in July, driven by favorable weather supporting the second corn crop. National supply company Conab now expects 2023-24 output at 299.3mn metric tonnes (t), up by 1.7mn t from a month ago. But the projection for the current cycle is 6.4pc — or 20.5mn t — below the record 319.8mn t in 2022-23, following the negative effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon over main producing states earlier in the season. The 2023-24 crop is set to yield 3,752 kg/hectare (ha), 7.9pc below the 4,072 kg/ha in the last cycle. That also compares with the 3,739 kg/ha forecast in June. Estimated sowed area expanded by 170,200ha to 79.8mn ha this month, which is a 1mn ha tumble from the prior season's acreage. Corn crop leads monthly gain Conab expects Brazil to produce over 115.9mn t of corn in 2023-24, including the country's first, second and third crops. Estimated volumes rose by 1.8mn t from the previous estimate of 114.1mn t, as the average yield outlook increased to 5,553 kg/ha from 5,478 kg/ha and the projection for planted area was up by 25,000ha to 20.9mn ha. The 2022-23 corn crop produced a record 131.9mn t, with 22.3mn ha sowed and average yields of 5,923 kg/ha. The 2023-24 second corn crop — also known as the winter crop — accounted for most of the upwards revision this month. The production forecast rose to 90mn t from 88.1mn t, but remained below the 2022-23 crop's 102.4mn t record. Expected yields rose to 5,556 kg/ha from 5,478 kg/ha in June. That is also 6.7pc below the prior cycle's yields. As for planted area, the forecast increased by 47,000ha and was maintained at almost 16.2mn ha. The 2022-23 second corn crop was sowed in 17.2mn ha. The summer corn cycle — also known as the first crop — is set to reach almost 23.4mn t, down by nearly 180,000t from a month prior and 3.9mn t below the last season. The estimate for acreage decreased by 23,900ha, but remains at around 4mn ha, approximately 438,000ha below the 2022-23 planted area. Projected yields dropped to 5,852 kg/ha from 5,862 kg/ha, also down from last season's 6,160 kg/ha. The outlook for the third corn crop — sowed exclusively in northern and northeastern states — continues at 2.4mn t, surpassing the prior cycle by 254,800t. Planted area is now set to reach 657,800ha, up by 2,800ha from the prior month's estimate and 632,500ha in 2022-23. The outlook for yields was down to 3,663 kg/ha from 3,670 kg/ha but is 7.5pc up on the year. Soybean output decreases slightly Brazil's 2023-24 soybean crop is set to total approximately 147.3mn t, following a 16,900t reduction from a month ago. That is a 4.7pc drop from the 2022-23 season's record of 154.6mn t, but the cycle remains on track to be the second largest crop in the country's history. The monthly output decrease reflects damage caused by floods in the Rio Grande do Sul state, which reduced its outlook by 540,000t to 19.7mn t. Losses were then mostly offset by an upwards revision in Para state, where higher yields and an increase in expected area rose the output forecast to almost 4.1mn t. National average yields are now estimated at 3,202 kg/ha, down from 3,205 kg/ha in June and 3,507 kg/ha in 2022-23. Conab projects that the 2023-24 soybean crop was sowed at a record of 46mn ha, compared with 44.1mn ha in the prior cycle. Wheat, cotton down Brazil's 2024 wheat production is now set to total almost 9mn t, down by 109,500t on the month and 859,000t above last year's output. Yields are down to 2,917 kg/ha from 2,945 kg/ha, while the expected planted area continues at approximately 3.1mn ha. That compares with 2,331 kg/ha and almost 3.5mn ha in 2023. The monthly downwards revision was driven by a lower outlook in Goias state, which struggled with excessive rainfall in the beginning of the cycle, fungal diseases and most recently water stress during the grain filling stage of crops. The forecast for 2023-24 cotton lint fell by 20,900t and is now at 3.6mn t, which is 462,900t — or 14.6pc — above the prior season's output. The yearly increase is driven by a higher expected acreage of 1.9mn ha, almost 17pc above the 2022-23 season and roughly stable from a month ago. Yields were down to 1,870kg/ha from 1,881kg/ha in June, which is 2pc below the prior season. Corn, soybean exports stable Conab continues to project 2023-24 corn exports to total 33.5mn t, despite an increase in expected production. Volumes remain below the 54.6mn t shipped in the prior cycle. But the outlook of domestic consumption rose to 84.3mn t from almost 84.2mn t a month ago — about 5.7pc above the prior season — led by a record demand from the corn ethanol and animal feed sectors. Soybean exports also continue set to reach 92.4mn t, down from almost 101.9mn t of soybeans exported in the 2022-23 season. By Nathalia Giannetti Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Commodity Ag to start WA grain exports
Australia’s Commodity Ag to start WA grain exports
Sydney, 11 July (Argus) — Australian agribusiness Commodity Ag will export its first cargo from its Albany port terminal facility this week, boosting export competition in Western Australia against established grain handlers CBH and Bunge. The company intends to export 600,000 t/yr from its Albany port facility, but said its capacity would be constrained by other users of the general-purpose berth. The loading capacity of the mobile shiploader indicated in its ACCC application would be a quarter of CBH's total loading capacity at Albany, according to Southern Ports. Western Australia's bulk grain exports are dominated by CBH — which has port terminals at Geraldton, Kwinana, Esperance and Albany — and Bunge, which has a port terminal at Bunbury. But barriers to entry for smaller port terminal service providers such as Commodity Ag have been reduced by the availability of mobile shiploaders , which allow trucks to unload grain directly in the port and onto a vessel. Commodity Ag's Albany facility will use a 400 t/hr mobile shiploader to load cargoes onto Handymax-sized vessels that are approximately 50,000 deadweight tonnes, according to its March 2023 application to the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) to be an exempt service provider of port terminal services. Commodity Ag has no other cargoes for loading on its shipping stem accessed on 11 July. It became an exempt service provider of port terminal services in May 2023, which means the company is not required to comply with parts 3 to 6 of the Port Terminal Access (Bulk Wheat) Code of Conduct. Part 3 of the code requires a port terminal service provider to not discriminate in favour their own trading business or an exporter that is an associated entity, and not hinder access for another exporter when providing bulk grain port terminal services. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US corn and soybean conditions remain stable
US corn and soybean conditions remain stable
Houston, 8 July (Argus) — Both corn crop conditions and soybean conditions improved last week, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). For the week ended 7 July, corn rated good to excellent increased to 68pc compared to 67pc the previous week. Illinois and Iowa conditions improved after receiving equal amounts of precipitation this past week. Soybean conditions rated good to excellent increased to 68pc compared with 67pc last week. Illinois and Iowa conditions exceeded last week's amount with a 2 percentage point increase from Illinois and a 4 percentage point increase from Iowa. US winter wheat was 63pc harvested, an 11 percentage point increase from the five-year average. Kansas, the largest winter wheat producing state, has harvested 92pc of its crop, compared with 72pc for the five-year average. By Trajan Greenwell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Flooding closes upper Mississippi locks
Flooding closes upper Mississippi locks
Houston, 8 July (Argus) — High water levels in the Mississippi River have caused all lock and dams to close between Bellevue, Iowa, and Gladstone, Illinois, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). Lock and Dams (L&D) 12-18 are closed as of 8 July, the Corps said. Water levels have reached the top of L&D 12 in Bellevue and L&D 11 in Dubuque, according to the National Weather Service. The outflow at L&D 16 was at 255,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) as of 8 July, about 68pc more than the average of 80,000cfs this time of year, the Corps said. It will be another two weeks until L&D 20 reopens, but L&Ds 11-15 could reopen as early as this weekend, the Corps said. About 15 inches of rain fell in Dubuque over the past week, bringing the expected forecast up to 22.1ft, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Flooding at Dubuque and other locations along the river are expected to drop from major to moderate levels this week. L&D 19 reopened on 8 July as it fellow flood stage at 16ft, the Corps said. L&Ds 19, 21, and 22 are expected to remain open. The river widens around the locks, allowing for a greater outflow at higher water levels. By Trajan Greenwell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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