Whitehaven pushes Australian coal growth

Spanish Market: Coal, Coking coal, Emissions
24/08/23

Australian producer Whitehaven Coal plans to invest heavily in thermal and coking coal growth and production out to 2044.

Whitehaven will double its capital expenditure (capex) in the 2023-24 fiscal year to 30 June, as well as make a final investment decision on a longwall at its 11mn t/yr Narrabri mine that will allow thermal coal production to continue until 2044. The expansion includes extending its Narrabri and Vickery mines, as well as building the 17mn t/yr Winchester South mine, despite an increasingly difficult financial, regulatory and social environment for investing in new coal capacity.

It is also one of the parties looking to buy Australian-Japanese joint venture BHP Mitsubishi Alliance's Blackwater and Daunia mines, which have been up for sale since February.

Whitehaven has set itself a target of 16mn-17.5mn t of managed coal sales excluding purchased coal for 2023-24, having achieved 16mn t in 2022-23. This 2023-24 guidance is below its original target of 16.5mn-18mn t for 2022-23, partly because of the planned closure of the Werris Creek mine. But the firm will roughly double its capex to A$450mn-570mn ($290mn-370mn) in 2023-24 from A$241mn in 2022-23 as it looks for longer term growth.

The firm remains committed to thermal and coking coal output growth, despite rising royalties and other costs, an increasingly complex environmental regulation framework and many financial institutions pulling out of investing in at least thermal coal.

The firm made a profit of A$2.67bn in 2022-23, up from A$1.95bn in 2021-22, and had a net cash position of A$2.65bn at 30 June compared with debts of A$809mn two years earlier. It expects that the lack of new supplies, coupled with continuing firm demand for its higher quality thermal coal, will maintain above average coal prices during 2023-24 and allowing it to continue to generate cash for growth opportunities.

Whitehaven chief executive Paul Flynn expects thermal coal prices to rise for the rest of this year, particularly for high-grade thermal coal, as the northern hemisphere heads into winter. He is less clear on the short-term outlook for coking coal, citing the more variables involved.

Whitehaven's optimism about coal demand and prices came as the Australian federal government forecast that Australian thermal coal exports will fall to 80mn t/yr by 2030 if global warming is to remain less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The Australian treasury modelling shows that Australian thermal coal exports will fall to around 120mn t/yr under a 2°C maximum warming scenario. Australian thermal coal exports fell to 178.27mn t in 2022 from 198.79mn t in 2021 and a peak of 212.08mn t in 2019, largely because of flooding in key coal mining regions.

By Jo Clarke

Australian coal price comparisons ($/t)

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19/12/24

Viewpoint: Foundations laid for increased VCM liquidity

London, 19 December (Argus) — The next 12 months will establish whether the work done by proponents of the voluntary carbon market in 2024 will yield some much-needed buyer confidence and liquidity. Concerns over the integrity of voluntary carbon credits, particularly the authenticity of their climate impact and their alleged excess issuance, have roiled the market over the past year. In the nature-based sector particularly, buying has been hesitant and intermittent, with prices losing substantial ground since the start of 2023. Trade levels for Indonesia's Katingan reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+) project, which hosts some of the most actively-traded credits of any nature-based activity, fell from $5.15/t CO2e in January to $3.80/t CO2e in December for credits of 2019 vintage. Deals agreed for credits generated in 2021 by Pakistan's Delta Blue Carbon mangrove restoration project, which comprises emissions removal and represents the upper end of the nature-based price range, have fallen from $30/t CO2e to $26.75/t CO2e. Proponents of the VCM have hailed the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market's (ICVCM) Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) as a potential solution, suggesting that the rigorous requirements carbon methodologies must meet to earn the certification should assure buyers of the legitimacy of the credits they issue, while allowing sellers to charge a premium and leverage more upstream investment. But since the first raft of methodologies were approved for the CCPs in June, trade for credits bearing the label has been severely limited, with only a handful of deals reported. Heading into 2025, the ICVCM must walk a tightrope as it goes about approving more methodologies that could yield the intended rise in liquidity. The multi-stakeholder initiative decided against making a swathe of renewable energy methodologies operated by carbon registry Gold Standard eligible for the CCPs at the start of August, which cut off about a third of the market from accessing the label. But the group has also come under fire for approving methodologies too hastily. One of the members of its expert panel stepped down in December after the ICVCM approved three REDD+ methodologies, arguing that by doing so it had set a precedent to flood the market with "millions" of credits that are over-issued and produced by projects that do not require carbon finance to run. Prospects for the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) are similar. The first phase of the scheme began this year and is due to run until 2026. Trade has thus far been minimal, but with the late-October approval of the two largest registries in the world, Verra and Gold Standard, the foundations have been laid for a substantial increase in 2025. Developers with projects certified by Verra and Gold Standard, along with the American Carbon Registry, Architecture for REDD+ Transactions, the Climate Action Reserve and the Global Carbon Council, can now sell Corsia-eligible credits directly to airlines seeking to comply with the first phase of the scheme, allowing them to potentially tap into a significant new channel of demand. In order to be eligible for Corsia, carbon credits must bear a letter of authorisation (LOA). These must be issued by the competent national authority to certify that the credit can be traded as an international transfer of mitigation outcome and used by other countries towards their own nationally determined contribution. The establishment of the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) under Article 6.4 at the UN Cop 29 conference in November is likely to increase the proliferation of LOAs and the number of Corsia credits available on the market in 2025. It is unclear how much impact the long-awaited deal on Article 6 will have in and of itself before the end of 2025 though, beyond unlocking demand from countries seeking to make progress on their nationally determined contributions. By Felix Todd Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Reliability drives New Zealand power mix: Minister

19/12/24

Reliability drives New Zealand power mix: Minister

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — New Zealand's conservative coalition government wants to ensure reliable generation, whether that is from coal, oil, gas, or geothermal resources, the country's resources minister Shane Jones told Argus this week. Jones was also clear about the need to draw a distinction between "the expectations on [a] small, open trading nation like [New Zealand] not to use coal and the major hope[s] and needs of the average New Zealander for affordable power, reliable power." "If [reliable power] comes from coal, that's the mix and the menu for the future," he added. Jones argued that existing renewable power sources cannot exclusively provide for New Zealand's energy needs. He instead suggested that his government is interested in promoting alternative power sources such as oil, gas and geothermal, through investments and policy changes. New Zealand's coal-fired power generation surged between July-September, according to the New Zealand's Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE). Coal rose to 8pc of total generation from 3pc a year earlier, following a drop in hydroelectric power production. The country burned 363,513t of coal over those months, more than tripling its use for power generation purposes compared to the same period last year. Oil, gas Jones has taken steps to boost the country's oil sector since taking office in late 2023, following the coalition's victory over the centre-left Labour party. The minister introduced the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill in June, a piece of legislation that he described as being "aimed at increasing investor confidence in petroleum exploration and development." Jones told Argus that under the previous government, "people who may have been willing to [make] investment[s] and bring patient capital concluded that New Zealand was no longer available as a destination for oil and gas and this has resulted in a diminution in [oil] investment." The Crown Minerals Amendment Bill will overturn a 2018 ban on offshore oil exploration, which was introduced while Jones was serving in the previous Labour-led coalition government. New Zealand's oil sector increased its annual well spending from NZ$110mn ($63.2mn) in 2018 to NZ$403mn, in the years following the ban in 2018. The total number of active oil permits in the country has plunged from 56 to 37 over the same period, MBIE data show. New Zealand likely houses at least 223.5bn m³ of undiscovered, offshore gas reserves; 249mn bl of undiscovered, offshore oil reserves; and 177mn bl of undiscovered, offshore NGL reserves, mostly scattered around the North Island, according to US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates in 2022. The country's discovered, recoverable reserves are at between 38.3mn-52.7mn bl of oil; 29.4bn-39.8bn m³ of gas; and between 1.2mn–1.4mn t of LPG as of 1 January 2024, according to the MBIE. Besides restarting oil exploration, the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill also seeks to change permitting processes to drive capital into the sector. Permits are currently allocated through a competitive tender process, Jones told Argus this week. The government wants "the flexibility to use alternative processes to match investor interest in the most efficient and effective way by allowing the option of using non-tender methods." MBIE has indicated that the government may start using ‘priority in time' tenders, which allocates permits to the first eligible projects that apply for them, once the bill passes. But the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill does not specify how the government will manage non-competitive tenders. The government is also not using the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill to "specifically intervene in coal mining operations" in New Zealand, Jones said. But coal demand will fall "in the event that [the government is] able to expand the supply of indigenous gas," he noted. Geothermal The government's energy strategy also appears to involve doubling down on domestic geothermal generation, which is New Zealand's second most common source of power. Geothermal generators produced 2,363GWh of power between July-September, accounting for 20.5pc of total generation, in line with historical averages, according to MBIE data. New Zealand's government seems to be trying to push that share up. The government in early December decided to allocate up to NZ$60mn of public infrastructure funding to research for deep, geothermal energy production. The work will focus on drilling geothermal wells up to 6km deep, nearly twice the depth of standard wells. Jones told Argus that New Zealand officials are currently in Japan, discussing supercritical geothermal generation opportunities with engineers and scientists. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Western Australia's near-term gas supply rises: Aemo

19/12/24

Western Australia's near-term gas supply rises: Aemo

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — The short term supply outlook for Western Australia's (WA) gas market has improved, but gaps in the next decade need to be addressed, according to an Aemo annual report. The near-term gas supply is stronger than last year's outlook, with supply now forecast to exceed consumption through to 2027 on increased flows from LNG projects and declining near-term consumption, according to the 2024 Western Australia Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) paper from the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo). Ample gas supply is expected because of increased flows from Wheatstone and Pluto LNG projects and new supply including forecast volumes from 2026 onwards from Woodside's Scarborough project and Strike's 87 TJ/d (2.3mn m³/d) West Erregulla plant . But demand is weak on the back of the shutdown of several nickel mines for maintenance in 2024 and the closure of the 2.2mn t/yr Kwinana alumina refinery announced in January. Aemo's 10-year outlook to 2035 now forecasts surplus gas until 2028, when some gas users will reopen projects. It also forecasts a less steep shortfall in the 2030s, with 2033 supply now 13pc below demand, down from the 27pc decrease in the 2023 GSOO. New gas supply will still be needed as WA plans to close its state-owned fleet of coal-fired power stations, but increasing renewable generation will shift gas usage in the power grid to a firming capacity, with gas-fired power demand tipped to increase in the early 2030s but stabilise at present levels of about 190 TJ/d by 2040. But uncertainty remains about the future of coal in the WA grid. The 416MW Bluewaters coal-fired plant, owned by Japanese firms Kansai Electric and Sumitomo, is expected to retire by 2030-31 but may be forced to close earlier because its supplier, the 2mn t/yr Griffin coal mine , cannot guarantee deliveries beyond October 2026. This will increase gas demand. The WA state government reversed a blanket ban on exporting onshore gas as LNG in September after a parliamentary inquiry into the state's domestic gas policy prompted by concerns from major gas users such as fertilizer manufacturers and metals refiners. Developers are now permitted to export 20pc of production as LNG until 2031 to boost upstream investment in the prospective Perth basin. By Tom Major WA gas supply and demand 2024-34 (TJ/d) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Potential gas supply 1,143 1,190 1,121 1,207 1,192 1,412 1,335 1,301 1,214 1,173 1,144 Gas demand 1,119 1,069 1,082 1,154 1,354 1,342 1,357 1,378 1,371 1,343 1,336 Difference (% ± of demand) 2 11 4 5 -12 5 -2 -6 -12 -13 -14 Source: Aemo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Strikes at Australian commodity ports to continue

19/12/24

Strikes at Australian commodity ports to continue

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — Workers at major commodity ports across Australia will strike next week, in response to stalling negotiations with port operators. Queensland In northern Queensland, unions representing almost 200 workers have notified the Gladstone Ports (GPC) that they plan to launch work stoppages at the LNG and coal hub next week, a source told Argus. The strike actions follow an earlier day-long work stoppage involving over 100 workers at the port that began earlier this week. The dispute between GPC and its workers is centred around wage and rostering proposals. GPC and unions representing its workers have not scheduled any further bargaining meetings, multiple sources have told Argus . Gladstone's ship queue has exceeded 30 ships multiple times since work stoppages began on 17 December. This compared with a queue of 48 ships in December 2023, after Cyclone Jasper forced three other north Queensland ports to turn vessels away for four days. To the south of Gladstone, 100 workers at the Qube-operated Port of Brisbane will also stop working between 23-27 December, according to maritime logistics firm GAC. The stoppage announcement follows a day-long strike at multiple Qube ports , which began on 16 December. Before the strike began, a Qube representative warned that strikes at its ports would "inevitably [cause] disruption to supply chains for key commodities like fertiliser, grain, and steel." The Port of Brisbane is a major oil and meat port. New South Wales Along Australia's eastern coast, workers at Qube's major coal, grain, and fertiliser port in Port Kembla are planning to strike for a longer period of time than their colleagues in other parts of the country. GAC has reported that workers will launch 13 rolling work stoppages at the port between 20 December and 3 January. There are 141 members of the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) participated in a strike authorisation vote at the site in early September, and have been engaged in industrial actions since then. Port Kembla also faced a day-long work stoppage earlier this week. Northern Territory Union members in Darwin are planning to not work for 1½ day beginning on 23 December. Like the Port of Brisbane, Darwin tends to handle livestock and oil products. But only 37 workers were eligible to participate in a successful mid-September union ballot authorising work stoppages at the port. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia’s Pertamina seeks UCO for SAF output

19/12/24

Indonesia’s Pertamina seeks UCO for SAF output

Singapore, 19 December (Argus) — Indonesia's state-owned refiner Pertamina is seeking around 500t of used cooking oil (UCO) for trial production of co-processed sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at its Cilacap refinery in the first quarter of 2025, sources close to the company said. The refiner is seeking UCO with better specifications from domestic Indonesian suppliers, said traders and sellers. The UCO will likely have a maximum of 2pc free fatty acid (FFA) content — compared with Argus -assessed maximum 5pc FFA Indonesian UCO — as well as low metals and chlorides content, said a trader, although this could not be confirmed with Pertamina. Earlier in December, Pertamina's refining and petrochemical subholding company, Kilang Pertamina Internasional (KPI), signed an initial agreement with Indonesian UCO supplier, PT Gapura Mas Lestari. Gapura will be supplying UCO to Pertamina in 2027, sources from both companies said. Indonesia's co-ordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment had announced in September that international flights departing the country will be required to use 1pc SAF in their fuel mix in 2027. This will rise to 2.5pc by 2030, 12.5pc by 2040, 30pc by 2050, and 50pc by 2060. Pertamina's "green refinery" at its 348,000 b/d Cilacap plant aims to process 6,000 b/d of UCO to produce hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and SAF, when its second phase comes on line, targeted to be in 2026 . Cilacap is eventually expected to produce around 300,000 kilolitres of HVO and SAF annually. Pertamina said Cilacap's HVO will be used as a blending component in diesel fuel with better quality, compared with traditional fatty acid methyl ester biodiesel. The firm added that its HVO is also designed to meet stringent market standards in countries like those in Europe and North America. Its SAF will meet Indonesia's demand, which is likely to rise after the country released its national roadmap for SAF development in September. Cilacap currently produces HVO, but from refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, and SAF from refined, bleached and deodorized palm kernel oil, a product of palm kernel oil processing. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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