California to consider tougher LCFS, biogas limits

Spanish Market: Emissions
08/09/23

California will target 50pc tougher transportation fuel carbon targets by the end of the decade, impose new obligations for intrastate jet fuel and reduce the use of one of the top credit-producing fuels under changes to state regulations that could be adopted early next year.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) late today posted materials offering the first details on proposed changes to its Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), a market-based carbon-reduction program helping to drive a surge in renewable diesel and other alternative fuel production to the state.

The Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment (SRIA) includes carbon targets requiring a 30pc reduction in transportation fuel by 2030, compared to the current 20pc. New, more aggressive reductions would begin in 2025 under the amendments submitted to California's Department of Finance for review.

Staff also proposed phasing out avoided methane crediting for dairy biogas, an accounting that grants outsized carbon-reducing credits that helped the fuel rise to the second-largest source of new credits generated in 2022. CARB would also require book-and-claim accounting for biomethane seeking California LCFS credits under the proposal.

The program would expand to impose carbon-reducing obligations on federally-regulated petroleum jet fuel used in flights between destinations in California. And staff proposed a mechanism to automatically adjust the program to tougher targets based on certain, unstated market conditions — an idea meant to more quickly respond to the record volumes of unused credits weighing on the program today.

Under pressure

LCFS programs require yearly reductions in transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution of approved, low-carbon alternatives.

Credits in California's market have sunk from near $200/t in January 2021 to $60/t in February. Spot credits have moved between $85/t and $70/t since May.

Towering supplies of unused credits have helped drag prices lower. Available credits rose to a record 16.5mn t by the end of the first quarter, according to the latest state data — enough to satisfy nearly four out of every five new deficits generated in all of last year. Some found bullishness in net credits growing at a slower pace for two consecutive quarters, but the increase still marked the largest first quarter build in program history. LCFS credits do not expire.

Participants have instead focused on how the program may change to address a widening gap between the flow of credit-generating fuels into the state and the dribble of deficit-generating CARBOB demand since the coronavirus pandemic. But long-standing regulatory obligations slowed CARB's ability to adjust targets as credit prices fell by more than half.

Foot on the gas

Through nearly two years of workshops feeling out California's next LCFS steps, few have been more outspoken for aggressive measures than biogas participants. Industry representatives have consistently pushed for the toughest possible targets and lightest revisions to eligible fuels as biogas grew to generate 14pc of all new credits produced last year.

Critics of biogas have added pressure both through CARB and the state legislature. Opponents fault the LCFS for providing incentives to consolidate and grow dairy operations to the detriment of neighboring communities while providing little new methane reduction.

Methane captured from dairy and swine operations and from landfill diversion projects would be phased out by 2040. Amendments would include at least one ten-year crediting period for avoided methane applications certified before the end of this decade, and allow a five-year crediting period for projects certified between 2030 and 2035.

Limits on renewable diesel feedstocks, another target of environmental opponents this year, were not discussed in the document posted today. Renewable diesel generated a third of all new LCFS credits in 2022, and has led credit generation since 2020.

Moving forward

The SRIA lurches the closely-watched amendment process toward a planned formal proposal before the end of the year and board vote in early 2024. The state Department of Finance will review the filing. Staff for that agency responded last year to CARB filings on Advanced Clean Fleets and this year on zero-emissions forklift rulemakings after 30 days. Submitting the document today would suggest a response no earlier than 8 October.

CARB will then post proposed amendments for at least 45 days of review and comment before a board vote. The board could accept, reject or require their own amendments on the proposal.

By Elliott Blackburn

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24/12/24

Viewpoint: California dairy fight spills into 2025

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — California must begin crafting dairy methane limits next year as pressure grows for regulators to change course. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has committed to begin crafting regulations that could mandate the reduction of dairy methane as it locked in incentives for harvesting gas to fuel vehicles in the state. The combination has frustrated environmental groups and other opponents of a methane capture strategy they accuse of collateral damage. Now, tough new targets pitched to help balance the program's incentives could become the fall-out in a new lawsuit. State regulators have repeatedly said that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is ill-suited to consider mostly off-road emissions from a sector that could pack up and move to another state to escape regulation. California's LCFS requires yearly reductions of transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the state of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Regulators extended participation in the program to dairy methane in 2017. Dairies may register to use manure digesters to capture methane that suppliers may process into pipeline-quality natural gas. This gas may then be attributed to compressed natural gas vehicles in California, so long as participants can show a path for approved supplies between the dairy and the customer. California only issues credits for methane cuts beyond other existing requirements. Regulators began mandating methane reductions from landfills more than a decade ago and in 2016 set similar requirements for wastewater treatment plants. But while lawmakers set a goal for in-state dairies to reduce methane emissions by 40pc from 2030 levels, regulators could not even consider rulemakings mandating such reductions until 2024. CARB made no move to directly regulate those emissions at their first opportunity, as staff grappled with amendments to the agency's LCFS and cap-and-trade programs. That has meant that dairies continue to receive credit for all of the methane they capture, generating deep, carbon-reducing scores under the LCFS and outsized credit production relative to the fuel they replace. Dairy methane harvesting generated 16pc of all new credits generated in 2023, compared with biodiesel's 6pc. Dairy methane replaced just 38pc of the diesel equivalent gallons that biodiesel did over the same period. The incentive has exasperated environmental and community groups, who see LCFS credits as encouraging larger operations with more consequences for local air and water quality. Dairies warn that costly methane capture systems could not be affordable otherwise. Adding to the expense of operating in California would cause more operations to leave the state. California dairies make up about two thirds of suppliers registered under the program. Dairy supporters successfully delayed proposed legislative requirements in 2023. CARB staff in May 2024 declined a petition seeking a faster approach to dairy regulation . Staff committed to take up a rulemaking considering the best way to address dairy methane reduction in 2025. Before that, final revisions to the LCFS approved in November included guarantees for dairy methane crediting. Projects that break ground by the end of this decade would remain eligible for up to 30 years of LCFS credit generation, compared with just 10 years for projects after 2029. Limits on the scope of book-and-claim participation for out-of-state projects would wait until well into the next decade. Staff said it was necessary to ensure continued investment in methane reduction. The inclusion immediately frustrated critics of the renewable natural gas policy, including board member Diane Tarkvarian, who sought to have the changes struck and was one of two votes ultimately against the LCFS revisions. Environmental groups have now sued , invoking violations that effectively froze the LCFS for years of court review. Regulators and lawmakers working to transition the state to cleaner air and lower-emissions vehicles will have to tread carefully in 2025. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

South Korea to invest $309bn in green finance by 2030

24/12/24

South Korea to invest $309bn in green finance by 2030

Singapore, 24 December (Argus) — South Korea plans to invest 450 trillion won ($309bn) in green finance by 2030, acting president and prime minister Han Duck-soo said on 23 December. The country is also "actively encouraging private investment by upgrading the Korean Green Taxonomy system", Han added. The taxonomy is technical legislation that classifies the industrial carbon and environmental footprint for investors. It aims to promote green finance and prevent ‘greenwashing', with the aim of achieving a sustainable circular economy. The most important issue for the industrial sector, which accounts for about 36pc of domestic emissions, is to transition to carbon neutrality, Han said. South Korea has an "export-driven economic structure with high external dependence", he said, which means international carbon barriers will significantly affect South Korea. This makes decarbonisation key to maintaining competitiveness, he added. South Korea is also responding to the climate crisis through technological innovation. The country's science ministry last week unveiled plans to invest almost W2.75 trillion to develop technology to respond to climate change in 2025. By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Low-carbon fuel battles tumble into 2025

23/12/24

Viewpoint: Low-carbon fuel battles tumble into 2025

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — Fights over North America's largest low-carbon fuel mandates will tumble into 2025, long after a contentious year spent updating the program. California's minority Republican lawmakers have seized upon fears that new, tougher targets approved in November to the state's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) could hike today's pump prices by 15pc. Environmental opponents have sued the California Air Resource's Board (CARB) alleging regulators ignored shortcomings to push through those amendments. And fuel suppliers, meanwhile, continue to grapple with new demands on feedstock selection, certification and other decisions that will begin to tighten by the end of this decade. LCFS programs require yearly reductions in transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels including petroleum diesel and gasoline incur deficits for exceeding annual targets. Suppliers must offset these deficits with credits generated from distributing approved, lower-carbon alternatives to the state. California operates the oldest and largest among five operating programs on the continent. The program helped drive a surge in US renewable diesel production capacity that earlier this year cut petroleum's share to less than a quarter of the liquid diesel used in the state. Credit trade representing each metric tonne (t) of carbon reduction drives the incentives for renewable diesel, captured dairy methane or electric vehicle charging capacity used in California transportation. Credits peaked at $219/t in February 2020, equivalent to roughly $267.10/t in today's dollars. But spot credits have languished below $100/t since late 2022. Prices buckled under the growing weight of more than 30mn t of extra credits available for future compliance — enough to satisfy all the deficits generated in 2023 a second time, with another 30pc leftover. CARB staff estimated that the targets board members approved in November would reduce that reserve by more than 8mn t, or less than a third. Fuel producers warned that carbon reduction could stagnate under the smothering imbalance of new credits. Staff dismissed outside estimates of 65¢/USG increases to gasoline prices attributed to the tough new program targets, but declined to offer a competing cost estimate. Spot credit prices would need to more than triple to $250/t next year to hit gasoline prices that hard at the pump, based on Argus analysis. Pump prices make good politics Governor Gavin Newsom (D) has for two years sought and received state tools to scrutinize oil company profits on California fuel sales. Now a California state senate Republican bill would repeal the new targets and other newly adopted changes intended to restore incentives under the program. A state assembly bill would require any CARB new rulemaking or standard to undergo a cost analysis by the state's Legislative Analyst Office, a nonpartisan office that performs such reviews of legislative proposals. These Republican measures face a likely impossible climb through Democratic supermajorities in both chambers. But lawmakers noted the potency of fuel price complaints. A legislative session — framed in defiance of a new federal administration hostile to their climate efforts — opened with leaders acknowledging the need to balance costs. "California has always led the way on climate change and we will continue to lead on climate," speaker Robert Rivas (D) said on 2 December. "But not on the backs of poor and working people. Not with taxes or fees for programs that don't work." Similar battles have already spilled out of the state. British Columbia voters in October narrowly denied conservatives a majority on a platform that included ending the province's aggressive LCFS. National conservatives targeted Canada's carbon taxes in a campaign against Premier Justin Trudeau's wobbling government ahead of elections next year. As regulators update programs to drive ambitious transportation changes, voters will become more aware of where the changes are heading. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z

23/12/24

Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z

New York, 23 December (Argus) — A Republican-controlled Congress will decide the fate next year of a federal incentive for low-carbon fuels, setting the stage for a lobbying battle that could make or break existing investment plans. The 45Z tax credit, which offers greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer emissions, is poised to kick off in January. Biofuel output has boomed during President Joe Biden's term, driven in large part by west coast refiners retrofitting facilities to process lower-carbon fats and oils into renewable diesel. The 45Z tax credit, created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), was designed to extend that growth. But Republicans will soon control Washington. President-elect Donald Trump has dismissed the IRA as the "Green New Scam", and Republicans on Capitol Hill, who had no role in passing Biden's signature climate legislation, are keen to cut climate spending to offset the steep cost of extending tax cuts from Trump's first term. Biofuels support is a less likely target for repeal than other climate policies, energy lobbyists say. But Republicans have already requested input on 45Z, signaling openness to changes. Republicans plan to use the reconciliation process, which enables them to avoid a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, to extend tax breaks that are scheduled to expire in 2025. "I want to place our industry in a place to make sure that the biofuels tax credit is part of reconciliation," said Kailee Tkacz Buller, president of the National Oilseed Processors Association. But lawmakers "could punt the biofuels discussion if stakeholders aren't aligned." A decade ago, biofuel policy was a simple tug-of-war between the oil and agriculture industries. Now many refiners formerly critical of the Renewable Fuel Standard produce ethanol and advanced biofuels themselves. And the increasingly diverse biofuels industry could complicate efforts to present a united front to Congress. Farm groups worry about carbon intensity scoring hurting crop demand and have lobbied to curtail record-high feedstock imports, to the chagrin of some biorefineries. Those producers are no monolith either: Biodiesel plants often rely more on local vegetable oils, while ethanol producers insist on keeping incentives that do not discriminate by fuel type and some oil majors would back subsidizing fuels co-processed with petroleum. Add airlines into the picture, which want greater incentives for aviation fuels, and marketers frustrated by 45Z shifting subsidies away from blenders — and the threat of fractious negotiations next year becomes clear. There are options for potential compromise, according to an Argus analysis of comments submitted privately to Republicans in the House of Representatives, as well as interviews with energy lobbyists and tax experts. The industry, frustrated by the Biden administration's delays in clarifying 45Z's rules, might welcome legislative changes that limit regulatory discretion regardless of what agency guidance eventually says. And lobbyists have floated various ways to appease agriculture groups without kneecapping biorefineries reliant on imports, including adding domestic content bonuses, imposing stricter requirements for Chinese-origin used cooking oil, and giving preference to close trading partners. Granted, unanimity among lobbyists is hardly a priority for Republican tax-writers. Reaching any consensus in the restive caucus, with just a handful of votes to spare in the House, will be difficult enough. "These types of bills always come to down to what's the most you can do before you start losing enough votes to pass it," said Jeff Navin, cofounder of the clean energy advocacy firm Boundary Stone Partners and a former House and Senate staffer. "Because they can only lose a couple of votes, there's not much more beyond that." And the caucus's goal of cutting spending makes an industry-wide goal — extending the 45Z credit into the 2030s — even more challenging. "It is a hard sell to get the extension right away," said Paul Winters, director of public affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance America. Climate costs Cost concerns also make less likely a simple return to the long-running blenders credit, which offered $1/USG across the board to biomass-based diesel. The US Joint Committee on Taxation in 2022 scored the two-year blenders extension at $5.5bn, while pegging three years of 45Z at less than $3bn. An inconvenient reality for Republicans skeptical of climate change is that 45Z's throttling of subsidies based on carbon intensity makes it more budget-friendly. Lawmakers have other reasons to not ignore emissions. Policies elsewhere, including California's low-carbon fuel standard and Europe's alternative jet fuel mandates, increasingly prioritize sustainability. The US deviating from that focus federally could leave producers with contradictory incentives, making it harder to turn a profit. And companies that have already sunk funds into reducing emissions — such as ethanol producers with heavy investments in carbon capture — want their reward. Incentives with bipartisan buy-in are likely more durable over the long run too. Next time Democrats control Washington, liberals may be more willing to scrap a credit they see as padding the profits of agribusiness — but less so if they see it as helping the US decarbonize. By Cole Martin Tax credit changes 40A Blenders Tax Credit 45Z Producers Tax Credit $1/USG Up to $1/USG for road fuels and up to $1.75/USG for aviation fuels depending on carbon intensity For domestic fuel blenders For domestic fuel producers Imported fuel eligible Imported fuel not eligible Exclusively for biomass-based diesel Fuels that produce no more than 50kg CO2e/mmBTU are eligible Feedstock-agnostic Carbon intensity scoring incentivizes waste over crop feedstocks Co-processed fuels ineligible Co-processed fuels ineligible Administratively simple Requires federal guidance on how to calculate carbon intensities for different feedstocks and fuel pathways Expiring after 2024 Lasts from 2025 through 2027 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil Bndes invests more in Sao Paulo EV fleet

20/12/24

Brazil Bndes invests more in Sao Paulo EV fleet

Sao Paulo, 20 December (Argus) — Brazil's Bndes development bank approved R94.8mn ($15.6mn) in financing for transport company MobiBrasil to buy 87 electric buses in Sao Paulo city. The environment ministry's climate fund — created to finance climate change mitigation projects and Bndes — will be responsible for R45mn. A federal fund to provide financial security to the unemployed, dubbed FGTS, will be responsible for the remaining R49.8mn. This is Bndes' first operation using FGTS resources. Earlier this month, Bndes said it will invest R2.5bn to buy 1,300 EV-buses in Sao Paulo city . On 9 December, the city's council postponed the bus fleet transition from diesel-powered to EVs to 2054 from the previous 2038 deadline. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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