IEA sees long oil demand plateau after peak

Spanish Market: Crude oil
24/10/23

Global oil demand peaks towards the end of this decade at around 102mn b/d then remains broadly at that level for the following two decades, according to the IEA's baseline scenario in its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO).

The IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which is based on prevailing policies worldwide, sees global demand — excluding biofuels — rising from 96.5mn b/d in 2022 to 101.5mn b/d in 2030. This is 900,000 b/d below last year's scenario for 2030. From then on oil consumption begins a long but slow decline, falling by just over 4mn b/d to 97.4mn b/d in 2050.

The IEA puts the downward revision from last year's WEO mainly down to the "astounding rise in electric vehicle sales" which is now affecting oil demand for road transport. While demand for use in petrochemicals, aviation and shipping continues to grow up to 2050, this is not enough to offset falls in demand for road transport, along with the power and buildings sectors, the IEA said.

The IEA's baseline scenario is in stark contrast to that of Opec, which earlier this month massively raised its global oil demand projection up to 2045.

The WEO explores two other scenarios — the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes government targets on emissions are met in full and on time, and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) lays a path to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

In APS, oil demand falls to 92.5mn b/d by 2030 and 54.8mn b/d by 2050, led by sharper declines in oil demand for road transport with "EVs accounting for more than 75pc of passenger car and truck sales in 2050." In NZE, oil demand falls to 77.5mn b/d by 2030 and 24.3mn b/d in 2050.

On the supply side, the STEPS scenario sees US tight oil output increasing by 2mn b/d between 2022 and 2030, to around 9.5mn b/d. Output peaks soon after and falls to around 8.5mn b/d by 2050. Other major additions come from Brazil and Guyana, with the latter boosting output to 2mn b/d by the mid 2030s. Opec production rises by just 1mn b/d by 2030, as African members' contributions fall by 1.5mn b/d. Opec's share of global oil production rises from 36pc in 2022 to 42pc in 2050.

Russian production falls by around 3.5mn b/d between 2022 and 2050 "as it struggles to maintain output from existing fields or to develop large new ones."

Tense Middle East

The IEA said some of the immediate pressures from the global energy crisis had eased, but it called attention to "unsettled" energy markets, geopolitics and the global economy.

"A tense situation in the Middle East is a reminder of hazards in oil markets a year after Russia cut gas supplies to Europe," the IEA said. "This underscores once again the frailties of the fossil fuel age."

The agency said oil and gas investment now is almost double the level required under the NZE scenario. It expects this to come in at around $800bn in 2023, broadly in line with the level needed in STEPS to 2030, that "industry today does not see a significant near-term reduction in demand as likely."

STEPS sees energy-related CO2 emissions peaking in the mid-2020s but emissions remain high enough to increase global average temperatures to around 2.4C in 2100.

"Bending the emissions curve onto a path consistent with 1.5C remains possible but very difficult," the IEA said.

By Aydin Calik

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

20/12/24

US House votes to avert government shutdown

Washington, 20 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly today to extend funding for US federal government agencies and avoid a partial government shutdown. The Republican-controlled House, by a 366-34 vote, approved a measure that would maintain funding for the government at current levels until 14 March, deliver $10bn in agricultural aid and provide $100bn in disaster relief. Its passage was in doubt until voting began in the House at 5pm ET, following a chaotic intervention two days earlier by president-elect Donald Trump and his allies, including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk. The Democratic-led Senate is expected to approve the measure, and President Joe Biden has promised to sign it. Trump and Musk on 18 December derailed a spending deal House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had negotiated with Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Trump lobbied for a more streamlined version that would have suspended the ceiling on federal debt until 30 January 2027. But that version of the bill failed in the House on Thursday, because of opposition from 38 Republicans who bucked the preference of their party leader. Trump and Musk opposed the bipartisan spending package, contending that it would fund Democratic priorities, such as rebuilding the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. But doing away with that bill killed many other initiatives that his party members have advanced, including a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. Depending on the timing of the Senate action and the presidential signature, funding for US government agencies could lapse briefly beginning on Saturday. Key US agencies tasked with energy sector regulatory oversight and permitting activities have indicated that a brief shutdown would not significantly interfere with their operations. But the episode previews potential legislative disarray when Republicans take full control of Congress on 3 January and Trump returns to the White House on 20 January. Extending government funding beyond 14 March is likely to feature as an element in the Republicans' attempts to extend corporate tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025, which is a key priority for Trump. The Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate next month, but their hold on the House will be even narrower than this year, at 219-215 initially. Trump has picked two House Republican members to serve in his administration, so the House Republican majority could briefly drop to 217-215 just as funding for the government would expire in mid-March. Congress will separately have to tackle the issue of raising the debt limit. Conservative advocacy group Economic Policy Innovation Center projects that US borrowing could reach that limit as early as June. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US government agencies set to shut down

20/12/24

US government agencies set to shut down

Washington, 20 December (Argus) — US federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail permitting and regulatory services if no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET to extend funding for the government. US president-elect Donald Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — on 18 December upended a spending deal US House of Representatives speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had negotiated with Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Trump endorsed an alternative proposal that Johnson put together, but that measure failed in a 174-235 vote late on Thursday, with 38 Republicans and nearly every Democrat voting against it. Trump via social media today indicated he would not push for a new funding bill. "If there is going to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now, under the Biden Administration, not after January 20th, under 'TRUMP,'" he wrote. There was little to indicate as of Friday morning that Trump, Republican congressional leadership and lawmakers were negotiating in earnest to avert a shutdown. The House Republican conference is due to meet in the afternoon to weigh its next steps. President Joe Biden said he would support the first funding deal that Johnson negotiated with the Democratic lawmakers. "Republicans are doing the bidding of their billionaire benefactors at the expense of hardworking Americans," the White House said. Any agreement on funding the government will have to secure the approval of the House Republican leadership and all factions of the Republican majority in the House, who appear to be looking for cues from Trump and Musk on how to proceed. Any deal would then require the support of at least 60 House Democrats to clear the procedural barriers, before it reaches the Senate where the Democrats hold a majority. The same factors will be in play even if the shutdown extends into early 2025. The Republicans are set to take the majority in the Senate when new Congress meets on 3 January. But their House majority will be even slimmer, at 219-215, requiring cooperation of Democratic lawmakers and the Biden administration. What happens when the government shuts down? Some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said. The US Department of Energy, which includes the Energy Information Administration and its critical energy data provision services, expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan. The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year. The Interior Department's shutdown contingency plan calls for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to furlough 4,900 out of its nearly 10,000 employees. BLM, which is responsible for permitting oil, gas and coal activities on the US federal land, would cease nearly all functions other than law enforcement and emergency response. Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, which oversees offshore leases, would continue permitting activities but would furlough 60pc of its staff after its funding lapses. The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management will keep processing some oil and gas exploration plans with an on-call group of 40 exempted personnel, such as time-sensitive actions related to ongoing work. The shutdown also affects multiple other regulatory and permitting functions across other government agencies, including the Departments of Agriculture, Transportation and Treasury. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: More changes for Dated crude benchmark ahead

20/12/24

Viewpoint: More changes for Dated crude benchmark ahead

London, 20 December (Argus) — The crude market has adjusted to the presence of US WTI in the Dated basket, but the past year has revealed some hiccups, suggesting more changes will be needed to the benchmark's structure. WTI has been a part of Dated for more than a year, in which time it has bought much-needed liquidity to a shrinking amount of physical crude underpinning the benchmark, and has encouraged a return of some old, long-absent market participants and the entry of a few new ones. WTI has introduced more transparency to Dated, making it much more easily accessible. While some traders feared the grade would arrest any volatility, which is necessary for trading companies to thrive, this has not happened. Instead, WTI has effectively tied the European market to the US one, with European Ice Brent futures following WTI Nymex futures very closely. But recent months have exposed some flaws, suggesting some more changes to the benchmark are needed. European refiners run as much as 4.5mn b/d of light sweet crude, Vortexa data show. Dated was designed to represent the price moves of this large market via a few crudes produced, and mostly consumed, in the region. But production of several component grades have shrunk because of natural decline at North Sea fields. Production of Brent, the benchmark's namesake grade, has fallen from above 400,000 b/d in 2001 to just 38,000 b/d this year. Forties' exports dropped from more than 600,000 b/d to 175,000 b/d in the same time. Therefore it seemed fair when Dated was set by WTI nearly half of the time, as it is the single largest crude that European refiners buy, accounting for around 14pc of all their supplies. The situation reversed in the last weeks of 2024. WTI has not set Dated since 11 October, with that duty mostly shared between Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll. But values of these grades — especially Oseberg and Troll — are rather theoretical, due to low liquidity of just 2-5 cargoes a month. It is not uncommon to see bids for those grades in the window, when the scarce supplies loading on the dates covered by bids are already placed. The same applies to Brent, for which loadings range between just 1-2 cargoes every month. WTI and Forties have greater liquidity, allowing them to be more representative of Europe's light sweet market, but their recent marginal role in setting the benchmark price raises a question if grades like Brent, Oseberg and Troll need to be in the basket at all. QPs an almighty relic of the past It might feel counterintuitive that smaller and more expensive grades affect the price of Dated — which is set by the cheapest grade in the basket. But Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll, which are typically more expensive on a fob basis than is WTI on a delivered-Europe basis, are adjusted by quality premiums (QPs) for benchmarking purposes. QPs are calculated at 60pc of the difference between each grade and the most competitive of the six benchmark grades in the second month prior to the month of loading. The mechanism was made for a basket of crudes that originate in the North Sea and trade on a fob basis. Inclusion of WTI, which in turn is adjusted by intra-European freight to make it a fob price in the North Sea, has widened QPs for the three grades. With price spreads between pricier and cheaper benchmark grades increasingly dependent on volumes of WTI coming to Europe, such an adjustment does not seem to serve its purpose anymore. By Lina Bulyk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update

19/12/24

Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update

Adds updates throughout Washington, 19 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump is offering his support for a rewritten spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown but leave out a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. The bill — which Republicans rewrote today after Trump attacked an earlier bipartisan agreement — would avoid a government shutdown starting Saturday, deliver agricultural aid and provide disaster relief. Trump said the bill was a "very good deal" that would also include a two-year suspension of the "very unnecessary" ceiling on federal debt, until 30 January 2027. "All Republicans, and even the Democrats, should do what is best for our Country, and vote 'YES' for this Bill, TONIGHT!" Trump wrote in a social media post. Passing the bill would require support from Democrats, who are still reeling after Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — upended a spending deal they had spent weeks negotiating with US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). Democrats have not yet said if they would vote against the new agreement. "We are prepared to move forward with the bipartisan agreement that we thought was negotiated in good faith with House Republicans," House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) said earlier today. That earlier deal would have kept the government funded through 14 March, in addition to providing a one-year extension to the farm bill, $100bn in disaster relief and $10bn in aid for farmers. The bill would also provide a waiver that would avoid a looming ban on summertime sales of E15 across much of the US. Ethanol industry officials said they would urge lawmakers to vote against any package without the E15 provision. "Pulling E15 out of the bill makes absolutely no sense and is an insult to America's farmers and renewable fuel producers," Renewable Fuels Association chief executive Geoff Cooper said. If no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET, federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail services, although some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a short-term funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said. The US Department of Energy expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan. The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Congress passes waterways bill

19/12/24

US Congress passes waterways bill

Houston, 19 December (Argus) — The US Senate has passed a bipartisan waterways infrastructure bill, providing a framework for further investment in the country's waterways system. The waterways bill, also known as the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), was approved by the Senate in a 97-1 vote on 18 December after clearing the US House of Representatives on 10 December. The WRDA's next stop is the desk of President Joe Biden, who is expected to sign the bill. The WRDA has been passed every two years, authorizing the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to undertake waterways infrastructure and navigation projects. Funding for individual projects must still be approved by Congress. Several agriculture-based groups voiced their support for the bill, saying it will improve transit for agricultural products on US waterways. The bill also shifts the funding of waterways projects to 75pc from the federal government and 25pc from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund instead of the previous 65-35pc split. "Increasing the general fund portion of the cost-share structure will promote much needed investment for inland navigation projects, as well as provide confidence to the industry that much needed maintenance and modernization of our inland waterway system will happen," Fertilizer Institute president Corey Rosenbusch said. The bill includes a provision to assist with the damaged Wilson Lock along the Tennessee River in Alabama. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more