Polish coalition to spur renewables, liberalise markets
The coalition that won a majority in Poland's general election last week has indicated its energy policy would include a more ambitious shift to renewables and liberalisation of the gas and electricity markets.
"We want renewables to be a key part of the Polish electricity mix," Civic Coalition (KO) party deputy Tomasz Nowak told Argus. KO is the largest of the three parties that plan to form a government and take power from the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has ruled Poland for eight years but lost its majority in the 15 October elections.
Nowak was deputy chairman of the climate and energy commission in the previous parliament and retained his deputy seat in last week's elections. He is a close ally of former European Council president Donald Tusk, the coalition leader tipped to become Poland's new prime minister. Nowak told Argus that the coalition's energy policy would represent a major change from PiS, although some policies — including gas infrastructure and nuclear energy plans — would continue.
PiS pursued a policy of strengthening state-owned companies' role in the country's energy sector, championing last year's merger of Poland's dominant oil and gas suppliers Orlen, Lotos and PGNiG into one state-controlled company, the Orlen group. The majority coalition said it would pull out from this policy, with Nowak describing Orlen as a "grotesque" entity. For two months before Poland's election, opposition parties criticised Orlen for helping the incumbent government by lowering fuel prices against the international market trend.
PiS has also pursued ambitious gas infrastructure diversification plans, such as building the 10bn m³/yr Baltic Pipe — which allows Poland to import gas directly from Norway — and building a two-vessel LNG terminal in Gdansk. The coalition said it will continue with these supply diversification plans, including the Gdansk LNG project. Investments in gas will be conducted "on a rational scale" so as not to divert the country from a shift to renewables, Nowak said. Coalition parties also declared their intention to continue PiS' plans to invest in nuclear energy.
But the PiS government also introduced controversial gas storage laws that consolidated the position of Orlen.
"We will surely liberalise the [gas] market," Nowak told Argus.
Renewables shift and end of Nabe plan
The winning parties indicated during the election campaign that they would change restrictive policies for onshore wind farm locations, as well as make it easier for renewable plants to connect to the electricity grid.
The new coalition plans to pursue a gradual exit from coal and lignite while securing energy transition funds to support the areas dependent on these fossil fuels. In their election campaign, the coalition parties criticised the government for its non-transparent use of revenue from sales of EU emissions trading system allowances, saying they should only be directed to energy transition measures.
The coalition is unlikely to pursue the outgoing government's coal spin-off plan and creation of a 100pc state entity, Nabe. "We have lots of doubts about Nabe, we voted against it," Nowak told Argus.
Nabe has been a key plan for the outgoing government to free Polish state-owned utilities from coal assets and help them raise money to invest in renewables.
Polish president Andrzej Duda, a former PiS member, plans to hold consultations with all parties this week on the creation of the new government.
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Greece expects 70pc fall in gas demand by 2050
Greece expects 70pc fall in gas demand by 2050
London, 28 August (Argus) — Greek gas demand will fall by nearly 70pc by 2050 as increasing renewable power installations displace gas in the power generation mix, according to Greece's revised National Climate and Energy Plan (NECP) put out for consultation last week. Gas consumption falls to 44.1TWh in 2030 and then to 16.2TWh by 2050 from 51.2TWh in 2022, under projections in the NECP. This will be driven by renewables displacing gas in the power mix, the replacement of gas units for heating in residential and industrial contexts through electrification, and a rise in the production of biogas and biomethane. Specifically for industry, the NECP assumes that gas demand will gradually decline to just 900GWh by 2050 from 6.6TWh in 2022, while in the commercial and public sector it will drop to 200GWh ( see gas table ). The NECP assumes a "dramatic increase in the electrification of building heating" through heat pumps, taking into account the ban on the sale of new oil and gas boilers from 2025, new EU laws on energy efficiency requirements in buildings, and the inclusion of building emissions in the EU emissions trading system. The power sector accounts for the majority of Greek gas demand. The NECP assumes that gas-fired power generation will decline to 10.4TWh by 2030 and 4.8TWh by 2050, far below 19.1TWh in 2022. Gas is displaced by solar and wind, with renewables contributing 96pc of domestic power generation by the middle of the century ( see power table ). But the NECP still foresees installed gas-fired capacity remaining high later into the decade, reaching a peak installed capacity of 7.9GW in 2030 before falling back to 6.4GW in 2050, slightly above 6.3GW in 2022. The government expects Greece to become a net power exporter already in 2035, having been a net importer of 3.5TWh in 2022. Gas-fired plants will remain "essential to ensure, in all cases, the stability and security of supply of the electricity system throughout the energy transition period", the NECP says. The plan foresees the need for a national compensation mechanism for gas-fired plants, particularly given the likely expansion of energy storage such as batteries further displacing gas from the power mix in 2030-40. Even some oil plants will potentially need to remain in cold reserve in case of emergency, mostly to ensure supply to some of the Greek islands. And while the plan projects a nearly 70pc drop in gas demand by 2050, it still envisages the expansion of the national transmission system, mostly to facilitate Greece becoming "the main energy hub of the wider region". The plan lists seven main gas interconnector projects that are of "national, regional and international interest", including the doubling of the Trans-Adriatic pipeline's capacity to 10bn m³/yr, an expansion of the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria's capacity to 5bn m³/yr, and the implementation of the Dioriga Gas LNG terminal, among others. If transmission system operator Desfa's expansion plans are fully carried out, transit capacity will increase to 8.5bn m³/yr by 2026 from 3.1bn m³/yr at present. However, these plans could be endangered "if the declared intention to fully decouple the EU from Russian gas is not implemented and if regional needs continue to be met mainly by Russian gas channelled through Turkey". To avoid significant increases in Greek transmission tariffs, "only the absolutely necessary investments in the expansion of gas infrastructure" are promoted, according to the plan. The NECP supports the development of small-scale LNG, enabled through the truck-loading services at Revithoussa and the under-construction bunkering jetty there. Small-scale LNG can displace oil in remote locations not connected to the gas grid, and is also important in decarbonising shipping and heavy land transport, the plan says. Annual biomethane production rises to 2.1TWh by 2030 and 4.6TWh in 2050 from zero at present under the plan. About 80 biogas plants currently produce 1.4 TWh/yr of biogas, and 38 of these adjacent to gas networks could be converted "relatively quickly" to biomethane production of about 900 GWh/yr. The remaining 1.2 TWh/yr targeted by 2030 will come from new plants. The NECP also aims to cut Greece's dependence on imports through the development of domestic gas production, if it proves to be commercially viable. Greece has awarded nine onshore and offshore exploration licences, and in April 2022 declared these projects to have national priority. In the past two years, "investigations have been accelerated" and drilling decisions are expected in the next two years. If final investment decisions are taken, new domestic production could come on line before the end of the decade. Preliminary estimates put potential and probable reserves in Greece at about 680bn m³, which if exploited would make Greece an exporter already by 2030, according to the NECP. More domestic production increases revenues for the Greek state, which can partly be used to implement the energy transition, the government said. By Brendan A'Hearn Projected annual power production by source TWh/yr 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Lignite 5.8 4.5 - - - - - Natural gas 19.1 12.2 10.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.8 Oil 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 - - Biomass and biogas 0.1 0.5 0.4 - - - - Solar 7.1 12.5 20.3 27.0 37.1 43.8 49.2 Onshore wind 10.9 15.8 20.7 21.9 25.5 30.3 30.2 Offshore wind - - 0.6 14.7 21.7 30.6 43.6 Hydro 3.9 5.8 6.4 7.4 7.7 8.6 9.1 Net imports 3.5 3.2 1.8 -3.7 -6.7 -11.1 -6.6 — Greek NECP Industrial and residential/commercial gas demand TWh/yr 2022 2030 2035 2040 2050 Industrial gas demand 6.6 4.9 4.6 1.4 0.9 Residential/commercial gas demand 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 — Greek NECP Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan seeks $11bn green budget funding
Japan seeks $11bn green budget funding
Osaka, 28 August (Argus) — The Japanese government is expected to request around a ¥1.6 trillion ($11bn) budget for 2025-26 and the following fiscal years to help drive the country's green transformation (GX) strategy to achieve its net zero emissions goal by 2050. The GX implementation council led by premier Fumio Kishida on 27 August unveiled its draft budgetary request plan for sectors involved in the GX, which aims at securing at least ¥1.6 trillion, excluding projects whose costs are unspecified. Tokyo is considering seeking ¥1.2 trillion for 2025-26, while asking for the remaining budget to be allocated for 3-5 years. The initial GX-related budget for 2024-25 was around ¥1.7 trillion, including a supplementary budget for the previous fiscal year. The government plans to allocate ¥255.5bn, or 22pc, of its total budget request for 2025-26, to help set up domestic supply chains to drive its decarbonisation efforts. This includes further development of perovskite solar cells, offshore wind power, storage batteries, water electrolysers and fuel cells. Japan is anticipated to require more than ¥150 trillion of public-private investment to promote energy transition over 10 years from 2023-24. Tokyo plans to issue around ¥20 trillion of GX economic transition bonds over the decade to support the investment. Tokyo is now working on formulating the GX vision toward 2040, aiming to complete it by the end of this year. The council on 27 August proposed specific areas to accelerate discussions, including efforts to restart existing nuclear reactors and development of next-generation reactors, as well as renewable energy expansion, LNG and future fuel supply security and industry relocations. Kishida has promoted nuclear reactors to enhance the country's energy security under his GX strategy, updating the country's nuclear policies since he took office in October 2021. The nuclear-pro GX discussions may influence the continuing review of the country's strategy energy plan (SEP), which was last formulated in 2021 and calls for a reduction of the dependence on nuclear reactors as much as possible. Tokyo should clearly state in its new SEP that it is necessary to not only restart existing nuclear reactors but also build new ones, said Japan's Federation of Electric Power Companies previously. Kishida has decided to step down from his position as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party next month. But he has emphasised he will make an effort to advance the GX strategy during the rest of his tenure, especially for nuclear restoration in east Japan where no reactors are currently operating. Kishida plans to hold a nuclear-related ministerial meeting next week to work on details of the government support to secure approval by local authorities to restart the 1,356MW Kashiwazaki-Kariwa No.7 reactor. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant is owned by Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco). It is Tepco's sole nuclear plant, after the Fukushima-Daiichi and its nearby Fukushima-Daini nuclear plants were scrapped in the wake of the country's 2011 nuclear disaster following a devastating earthquake and tsunami. By Motoko Hasegawa Japan 2025-26 draft GX-related budget request (¥bn) Introduction of EVs, PHEVs, FCVs 144.4 Introduction of highly insulated windows, high-efficiency water heaters 188.0 Retrofitting existing buildings 26.6 SAF production and supply chain 83.8 R&D of next generation nuclear reactors 82.9 Introduction of energy storage system 31.0 Establishing domestic supply chains such as: 255.5 Perovskite solar cells, Offshore wind power, storage batteries, water electrolysers, fuel cells Support for hard-to-abate industries 87.0 Introduction of production facility for zero emissions vessel 14.3 Support for advanced energy saving measures by small to medium enterprises 174.3 Circular economy 12.0 Support for deep-tech, start-up companies related to GX 40.0 Grant for regional decarbonisation, such as private micro grid 10.0 Total 1,149.8 Source: Japan cabinet secretariat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Batteries, oil reserves top Korea’s trade budget focus
Batteries, oil reserves top Korea’s trade budget focus
Singapore, 28 August (Argus) — South Korea's trade, industry and energy ministry (Motie) today announced its 2025 budget proposal, which has a focus on fostering high-tech industries such as batteries and semiconductors, and bolstering oil reserves. Other key areas include ensuring reserves of key metals, as well as expanding low-carbon energy. Motie's proposed 2025 budget totals W11.5 trillion ($8.6bn), up by 0.2pc or W21.8bn from the previous year. The budget proposal will be submitted to the National Assembly in early September for approval and will be confirmed in December. High-tech industries Motie will expand funding for developing high-tech strategic industries such as semiconductors and secondary batteries by 17pc to W2.09 trillion in 2025. The ministry will extend support totalling W31.2bn to further develop battery management system technology and infrastructure to assess the safety of electric vehicle (EV) batteries, with the ministry citing recent heightened safety concerns following multiple fires involving EVs. The incidents had prompted domestic EV manufacturers to disclose otherwise confidential battery information. Resource security Motie will raise funding to boost economic security by 1.4pc to W1.85 trillion in 2025, which includes developing resources, as well as bolstering stockpiles of oil and key minerals. Of the W1.85 trillion, investment in developing oil fields will rise by 5.2pc to W50.6bn. This includes funds to support the first exploration drilling in the deep-sea gas field in the east sea , with results expected by the first half of 2025. The country plans to invest W79.9bn in 2025, up by 20pc from 2024, in oil storage, and to expand oil reserves to over 100mn bl. Stockpiling of key minerals such as lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements will continue, but the South Korean government is shifting its focus to building and maintaining stockpile infrastructure given stable mineral prices. Its budget for key minerals stockpiling will be lowered by 58pc from this year's W233.1bn to W96.9bn for 2025, but the allocated budget for construction and maintenance will surge by over sixfold to W116.3bn from this year's W18.7bn. The country will also support concluding supply deals for urea and further develop technology to cut import dependence. Low-carbon energy Motie's "carbon-free" energy budget is largely focused on developing the nuclear power industry as a key export driver, with W11.6bn allocated. The Czech government in July selected Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) as the preferred bidder for the installation of two nuclear reactors at the site of its 2GW Dukovany power plant, although US nuclear developer Westinghouse and French utility EdF are challenging the tender results . The government is also extending W198.4bn in funds to expand renewable energy supply. Of this, W42bn will be allocated to support low-carbon energy projects, which Motie expects to attract funding of up to W525bn in the renewable energy market. By Tng Yong Li and Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s NRA rejects restart for Tsuruga No.2 reactor
Japan’s NRA rejects restart for Tsuruga No.2 reactor
Tokyo, 28 August (Argus) — Japan's Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) today rejected a draft safety clearance for Japan Atomic Power's (JAPC) 1,160MW Tsuruga No.2 reactor to restart operations. This is the first time the NRA has rejected a draft safety clearance for a nuclear reactor since it was set up in 2012. The NRA plans to receive technical and scientific comments from the public for 30 days from 29 August and then will make an official, final decision. It is unclear when NRA will make this final decision. A NRA committee on 26 July dismissed a claim by JAPC arguing that an earthquake fault line under Tsuruga in west Japan's Fukui prefecture is unlikely to be active, so operating the Tsuruga No.2 reactor will be safe even if a disaster occurred. The NRA on 28 August said that there were many mistakes and falsifications of documents and data submitted by JAPC, resulting in it taking around 10 years to assess the safety of the reactor. JAPC said it will continue to attempt a restart of the Tsuruga No.2 reactor. Japan's guidelines prohibit any reactors from being built above an active fault line. The NRA and seismologists in 2015 concluded that JAPC's Tsuruga No.1 and No.2 reactors were located above such a fault line. But JAPC said in 2015 that NRA's conclusion was unacceptable, claiming its own assessment showed the fault line was inactive. Japan, which is one of the world's most seismically active countries, has been checking the status of tectonic fault lines underneath reactors since a devastating earthquake and tsunami sparked a nuclear disaster at Tokyo Electric Power's Fukushima power plant in March 2011. By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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