Finnish and Baltic gas demand continues to rise in Nov

Spanish Market: Natural gas
12/12/23

Finnish and Baltic gas demand continued to rise in November, reaching its highest for any month since December 2022.

Combined consumption in Finland and the Baltics in November climbed to 4.47TWh from 4.18TWh in October and 3.61TWh in November last year (see data and download). The year-on-year increase was driven by Finland, where consumption jumped by 76pc, although consumption was also up in Lithuania and Estonia (see country-by-country graph).

While consumption was higher than in November 2022, it was still well below the 2018-21 average for the month of 6.05TWh. Cumulative consumption in January-November was still slightly lower on the year, falling to roughly 34.75TWh from 35.2TWh (see cumulative graph).

Finnish consumption soared to 1.39TWh from 790GWh a year earlier. Demand was up despite Finnish gas-fired power generation falling on the year to an average of 205MW from 251MW, data from grid operators association Entso-E show (see table). This suggests that industrial consumption probably drove the recovery, particularly as industry accounts for roughly 60pc of Finnish gas consumption. Many industrial users switched to alternative fuels where possible last year as prices reached historic highs, although some have returned to gas as prices have fallen. But Finnish demand holding well below the 2018-21 average of 2.09TWh for the month suggests that some users may have stopped using gas more permanently.

Some of this higher consumption was also probably driven by stronger heating demand, with minimum temperatures in Helsinki averaging minus 3.2°C this November compared with plus 0.4°C in November last year. That said, there is very little direct gas consumption from households, making up just 2pc of Finnish consumption last year, with the majority of buildings using district heating. Gas fired roughly 10pc of Finnish district heating production in 2021, but this dropped significantly to 3pc in 2022, as plants switched to alternative fuels, according to data from Statistics Finland. Some of the higher demand may have been driven by these companies switching back to gas.

It was also colder this November compared with the previous year in the Baltic countries, driving up heating demand there as well. In Estonia, the expiry of temporary exemptions given to district heating companies last winter that allowed them to burn alternative fuels will mean an increase in gas use from this sector. This is also true for some district heating in Lithuania.

But ammonia producer Achema's closure of the second unit at its Jonava complex from 31 October for seven months of maintenance will weigh heavily on Lithuanian consumption. Jonava at full capacity accounted for more than half of Lithuania's annual gas consumption and was the largest single gas consumer in the region. The closure of this unit probably explains most of the November drop in Lithuanian consumption from October, although gas-fired power generation was also lower on the month.

The average BGSI price — a volume-weighted average of transactions on a given day — on the GET Baltic exchange dropped by 4pc on the month to €49.35/MWh in November, the exchange said. "The continued isolation of the Finnish market because of the Balticconnector pipeline constraint results in a difference of more than €10/MWh between the price of gas traded on the Finnish and other Baltic market areas. This real-life example shows that in isolated, unconnected markets the price of energy resources is rising," GET Baltic chief executive Giedre Kurme said. The average Finnish BGSI price was relatively stable on the month, increasing by only 1pc to €56.15/MWh, but much higher than the €45.38/MWh in the Latvia-Estonia shared market area.

Total traded volumes jumped significantly on the year, rising by 51pc to 946GWh despite the number of transactions falling by roughly 5pc. Lithuania accounted for 64pc of trades, while Finland made up 29pc and the Estonia-Latvia common market area the remaining 7pc.

Weather biggest factor in December

With the start of the boreal winter in December, cold weather in the region will continue to drive gas consumption this month.

Temperatures well below freezing towards the start of the month caused gas burn for power generation in Finland and the Baltics to soar, and this is likely to continue driving gas consumption over the course of December.

While gas-fired generation has dropped from its peak this month on 4-5 December, it picked up again on 11 December as demand increased and wind generation dropped. Finnish wind generation has been particularly weak this month, averaging 1.07GW on 1-11 December, compared with 1.79GW in November, Entso-E data show. Some of this shortfall has been offset by record nuclear generation, which averaged 4.36GW on 1-11 December, compared with 4.1GW in November. Biomass, peat and coal have also played a bigger part in the Finnish generation stack this month.

By Brendan A'Hearn

Finnish + Baltic average gas-fired power generation					MW
	Nov-23	Nov-22	Oct-23	± Nov 22	± Oct 23

Estonia	6	6	5	0	1
Latvia	242	354	137	-112	105
Lithuania	78	81	127	-3	-49
Finland	205	251	142	-46	63
Total	531	692	411	-161	120
— Entso-E

November consumption by country GWh

Finnish and Baltic combined consumption Jan-Nov GWh

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

08/04/25

US faults EU carbon fee during tariff fight

Washington, 8 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is citing the EU's upcoming tariff on carbon-intensive imports as one of the "unfair trade practices" that justified a tariff response. Trump has said a 20pc tariff on most EU goods and a higher tariff on many other key trading partners — set to take effect after midnight — are "reciprocal" to other countries' tariffs and non-tariff barriers, even though those tariffs are calculated based on each country's trade deficits and imports with the US. Trump has yet to even identify which trade policies he wants other countries to change before he would withdraw tariffs his administration expects will raise $600bn/yr in new revenue. But the US Trade Representative's office, in a social media post on Monday made in "honor" of Trump's tariffs, identified the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — which will collect a carbon-based levy on imports such as steel, cement and fertilizer — as one of the examples of what it sees as an unfair trading practice. The Trump administration estimates $4.7bn/yr of US exports would be affected by the CBAM, which is set to take effect in 2026. "These EU regulations undermine fair competition, penalizing US companies while providing advantages to EU-based competitors," the US Trade Representative's office wrote in a series of posts on Tuesday that also criticized India and Thailand for imposing import restrictions on ethanol produced in the US. White House officials say more than 70 countries have approached the administration seeking deals on the tariffs since they were announced nearly a week ago. But with just hours before the tariffs take effect, Trump has yet to announce any definitive agreements to withdraw the tariffs. Instead, he has rejected offers from countries to zero out some of their tariffs. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Monday said the EU was "ready to negotiate" on tariffs, and would zero out its tariffs on industrial imports if the US agreed to do the same. But Trump on Monday said that offer was not enough. "We have a deficit with the European Union of $350bn, and it's gonna disappear fast," Trump said. "One of the ways that that can disappear easily and quickly is they're gonna have to buy our energy from us." Today, Trump said he had a "great call" with South Korea's acting president Han Duck-soo that created the "probability of a great DEAL for both countries." Trump cited a potential agreement that might include large-scale purchases of US LNG and investments tied to the 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project. Trump and his cabinet believe the tariffs will align with a goal to achieve "energy dominance" and increase the amount of US energy exported abroad. "At the end of the day, we're going to have growing American exports and reindustrialize the country," US energy secretary Chris Wright said today during an interview on CNBC. Trump's tariffs have already caused a selloff in equities and, according to many analysts on Wall Street, a higher likelihood of a recession. Oil prices have dropped because of a "sudden change in the economic outlook, whereas everyone just honestly 10 days ago was expecting modest but steady positive growth in the US", non-profit group Center for Strategic and International Studies' senior fellow Clayton Seigle said today. Republicans have largely backed Trump in his imposition of tariffs, with the hope the tariffs will be lifted as part of trade negotiations. But some Republicans have started criticizing the rationale for the tariff policy. "Whose throat do I get to choke if this proves to be wrong?" US senator Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) said in a hearing today with the US trade representative Jamieson Greer. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariffs set to rise despite Trump talk of deals

08/04/25

US tariffs set to rise despite Trump talk of deals

Washington, 8 April (Argus) — Punitive taxes on imports from key US trading partners are set to rise on Wednesday despite President Donald Trump's claims of multiple trade deals in the making. Trump's 10pc baseline tariff on imports nearly every foreign country already went into effect on 5 April. The higher, "reciprocal" taxes will go into effect as scheduled, at 12:01am ET on 9 April, US trade representative Jamieson Greer told the Senate Finance Committee today. Trump, via his social media platform, said today he discussed a possible trade deal with South Korea and added that "we are likewise dealing with many other countries, all of whom want to make a deal with the United States." Greer told the Senate panel that more than 50 countries have reached out to the US to negotiate trade deals. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent separately claimed that more than 70 countries are interested in a trade deal with the US. Both Democratic and Republican senators on the Senate panel pressed Greer to explain whether negotiations would result in lowering tariff rates. But Greer outlined a process that he expects would lower foreign countries' tariff rates on US products and commit them to buy more US energy and other products. "There are things we can do with our trading partners, things that aren't always purely in the trade sector," Greer said. Possible subjects for trade negotiations could involve "export controls alignment or investment screening, alignment on energy, making sure that our partners are tied up with us with respect to LNG and other resources, as opposed to being dependent on other countries." The US is primarily looking to reduce trade deficits with those countries, Greer said. "What we have told them is, 'if you have a better idea to achieve reciprocity and to get our trade deficit down, we want to talk to you.'" Trump, in turn, suggested that a possible deal with South Korea could include "large scale purchase of US LNG" and "their joint venture in an Alaska Pipeline". The latter is a reference to the planned 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project, which would be the most expensive liquefaction facilities ever built in the US if it becomes a reality. Trump has talked up potential support for Alaska LNG from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan for months. But the three countries still became subject to high tariffs. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US mid-Atlantic gas prices may rise on cold

08/04/25

US mid-Atlantic gas prices may rise on cold

New York, 8 April (Argus) — Spot natural gas prices across the mid-Atlantic this week may rise on an increase in heating demand resulting from colder weather. The mid-Atlantic in the week ending on 12 April was forecast to have 148 population-weighted heating degree days (HDDs), up by 37pc from a week earlier and 12pc more than the seasonal norm, according to the US National Weather Service (NWS). Below-average temperatures were expected across the northeast US, eastern midcontinent and southeastern Canada through 11 April, according to the private forecaster Commodity Weather Group. Normal seasonal weather was expected in all those regions from 12-16 April, the forecaster noted. The May price at Transco zone 6 in New York was $3/mmBtu, and the 12-month strip was $4.54/mmBtu, according to Argus forward curves. Mid-Atlantic spot prices last week rose on an increase in weather-related demand, despite the 31 March official end to the winter heating season. The Transco zone 6 New York index in the week ended on 4 April averaged $3.37/mmBtu, up by 9pc from a week earlier and 5pc higher than the April bid week price. The Tetco M-3 index over the period averaged $3.32/mmBtu, up by 10pc from a week earlier and 3pc higher than the April bid week price. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oil companies far from Paris accord alignment: Report

08/04/25

Oil companies far from Paris accord alignment: Report

London, 8 April (Argus) — None of the 30 oil and gas producers assessed are close to being in line with Paris climate agreement targets "and some have regressed", a report from think-tank Carbon Tracker found today. Carbon Tracker flagged "backsliding, particularly around oil and gas production plans" from the producers assessed in its report, Paris Maligned III . The think-tank assessed 30 of the largest producers — a mixture of corporations and national oil companies — against six metrics. These included production plans, greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and methane reduction targets. It did not assess producers based in countries subject to international sanctions. "Almost all producers are planning to increase oil and gas production in the coming years… Such growth plans are at odds with the Paris Agreement's 1.5˚C target and many are incompatible with a below 2˚C scenario", the report found. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — seen as the overarching consensus on climate science — notes that a substantial reduction in fossil fuels is needed in order to reach climate goals. The Paris agreement seeks to limit the rise in global temperatures to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels and preferably to 1.5°C. The only producers assessed that are not planning to increase production are London-listed independent Harbour Energy and Spain's Repsol, Carbon Tracker found. Carbon Tracker ranked Repsol highest overall for alignment with Paris agreement goals and Harbour Energy in second place. European companies were ranked more highly in line with Paris goals, with seven of the top 10 places. Three state-owned oil companies — Mexico's Pemex, Algeria's Sonatrach and Kuwait's KPC — and US firms ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips took the five lowest places in the ranking table. "Despite some political and market headwinds, investor engagement on climate risk remains strong, particularly in Europe", the report noted. Carbon Tracker this year scored companies on the extent to which they planned to cut methane emissions — specifically "near-zero methane by 2030" across upstream activities and "midstream gas assets where applicable", it said. This is in line with the decarbonisation charter which many of the companies assessed signed up to at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in December 2023. Companies' methane reduction plans "are typically more climate-aligned than their overall GHG targets", the report found. But "there is still considerable room for improvement because significant sources of methane emissions are overlooked", it added. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US producers look overseas as shale stalls

07/04/25

US producers look overseas as shale stalls

New York, 7 April (Argus) — US shale producers are seeking to deploy their expertise around hydraulic fracturing in international markets, in a marked departure from their recent strategy and one that is set to accelerate as domestic output slows. Continental Resources — whose billionaire founder and executive chairman Harold Hamm was one of the driving forces behind the shale revolution after figuring out how to unlock the vast resources of North Dakota's Bakken basin with horizontal drilling — recently announced plans to explore for unconventional resources in Turkey. And EOG Resources aims to kick-start a drilling campaign in Bahrain. Early successes could prompt a scramble by peers to follow suit, which would be a reversal of the trend seen in the early days of the shale boom when the industry largely retrenched from overseas investments to concentrate on exploiting domestic plays. And while decisions to venture abroad have been mainly based on individual company strategies up until now — and investors have been lukewarm at best — forecasts for shale to start plateauing in the coming years could lend them greater impetus. "Maybe, as they have success, that will draw others in," energy investment firm Bison Interests chief investment officer and founder Josh Young says. "It could be the start of something big." The caveat is that a potential international push at scale is unlikely to happen overnight, and companies such as Murphy Oil and APA — which already have exploration campaigns under way from Vietnam to Ivory Coast and Suriname — have underperformed compared with their rivals. "You are not seeing that market acceptance or market credit for international projects," Young says. That perception may shift if international exploration yields above-average returns for shareholders, boosting the case for producers to seek to build out their inventory further afield as growth in the shale patch slowly grinds to a halt. International exploration may have its own risks, given shale's success story has largely been confined to the US and Argentina to date. But the "cost of entry is relatively low compared to a North American landscape with little room for exploration and high premiums for solid assets in the Permian", consultancy Rystad Energy vice-president for North America oil and gas Matthew Bernstein says. Hamm, who took Continental private more than two years ago after tiring of public markets, recently warned that US shale is beginning to plateau . "What we really need to concentrate on is where we go as we crest right here in America, what the downside looks like," he told the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston. He also signalled a greater openness to drill outside North America. Talking Turkey Continental recently announced a joint venture with Turkey's national oil company and US-based TransAtlantic Petroleum to develop oil and gas resources in southeast and northwest Turkey. State-owned Turkish Petroleum has pegged initial estimates from the Diyarbakir basin in the southeast that could reach 6bn bl of oil and 12 trillion-20 trillion ft³ (340bn-570bn m³) of gas. The Thrace basin in northwest Turkey may hold up to 20 trillion-45 trillion ft³. "We see immense potential in Turkey's untapped resources," Continental's chief executive, Doug Lawler, says. And in February, EOG Resources announced a tie-in with state-owned Bapco Energies to evaluate a gas prospect in Bahrain. EOG will take on the role of operator, and the venture is awaiting further government approvals. "The formation has previously been tested using horizontal technology, delivering positive results," EOG chief executive Ezra Yacob says. By deploying its existing skillset around horizontal drilling and completions, EOG is confident of achieving results that are competitive with projects in its domestic portfolio. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more