Standard engines to endure in Brazil amid EV growth
Brazil's delay in electrifying its transport fleet — a process slowed by a short- and medium-term focus on hybrid vehicles — should prolong the use of internal combustion engines and demand for gasoline in the country.
The outlook is aligned with the final text from the UN Cop 28 climate summit in Dubai that mentioned a global reduction — but not a phaseout — of fossil fuels for the first time.
With a mature and structured biofuel market, the country is not likely to move away from alternatives linked to ethanol and biodiesel anytime soon, extending flex options and mixtures with fossil fuels. Brazil's continued reliance on flex fuel vehicles — that can burn either gasoline or ethanol — is also the result of a lack of adequate infrastructure for battery-powered units and the high price of electric vehicles (EVs).
As a consequence, hybrid vehicles, with both a flex motor and battery-charging capability without the need of charging by cord, are seen as an interim solution for reducing greenhouse gas emissions until the market is developed enough to stop using fossil fuels.
Hybrid vehicles took a bigger slice of Brazil's vehicles market in 2023. Flex fuel vehicles' share dipped slightly, but still held more than 80pc. According to estimates from Brazilian carmaker association Anfavea, hybrid sales should rise to 117,900 units in 2024 from 73,600 units this year.
A recent study by consultant Alvarez & Marsal indicates that flex cars could fall to around 50pc of light vehicle registrations in 2030 from almost 99pc, with hybrids gaining around 39pc of market share over the same period.
But to achieve the net zero target by 2050, established at Cop 28, hybrid vehicles and hydrous ethanol might not be enough. Electric cars may be required earlier than expected to meet the goals, said David Wong, an Alvarez & Marsal director specialized in the automotive sector.
"Brazil will go through a hybridization period of the transport vehicle and, later on, by pressure of the automakers and the scale it will have, this battery product will be cheaper than the hybrid engine," Wong said.
Sales of battery-powered EVs will increase to 24,100 in 2024 from 15,200 units in 2023, according to Anfavea. The organization predicts the hike even considering the return of an import tariff in January. The resumption of taxes will be gradual, with different values for each type of EV, and will include exemption quotas, Anfavea president Marcio de Lima Leite said.
An important factor for this forecast is the expected EV domestic supply growth in 2024. Chinese automakers GWM and BYD are scheduled to start operations in Brazil in May and December, respectively. Volkswagen, Fiat and Renault — which already operate in the country — will also launch electrified products in the period, Wong said.
Increased domestic supply should decrease the price of battery-powered electrics, but Wong said there are uncertainties surrounding costs. It will be necessary to observe how the automotive industry will act with the return of import taxes, with or without subsidies, he said.
As for long-distance heavy vehicles, such as trucks, hydrogen remains the most efficient path to transition. "When you throw hydrogen directly into a motor for combustion, there is practically no significant technological change in the equipment," Wong said.
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Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Washington, 23 August (Argus) — The status of rail freight in Canada remains uncertain after a Canadian labor union today issued a new strike notice to Canadian National (CN), less than a day after the federal government forced all parties to participate in binding arbitration. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) today issued notice to CN that members will go on strike at 10am ET on 26 August. The union had not issued a strike notice to CN earlier this week, but employees could not work yesterday after the CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked them out. "We do not believe that any of the matters we have been discussing over the last several days are insurmountable," the union said today in its notice to CN. It said it would be available to discuss issues to avoid another work stoppage. CN indicated it was frustrated with the union's action. "While CN is focused on its recovery plan to get back to powering the economy, the Teamsters are focused on returning to the picket line and holding the country hostage to their demands," the railroad said. CN last night had begun implementing a recovery plan to restore service . The union has not yet responded to inquiries about its action today. The office of labour minister Steven MacKinnon declined to comment. Rail operations at CN and CP stopped at 12:01am ET on Thursday after the union launched a strike at CPKC and both railroads locked out employees. That action ended late Thursday afternoon with the federal government directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to manage binding arbitration on the railroads. CIRB, an independent agency, has not yet said if it will accept the government's order. CN began moving some freight early on 23 August, but the new strike order issued soon by the union today could disrupt those plans. The union has also challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon's order regarding CPKC operations pending the outcome of a new ruling by the CIRB. CPKC's rail fleet remains parked in the meantime. CPKC said late Thursday it was disappointed in the minister's decision and sought to meet with CIRB to discuss resumption of service. CPKC said the union "refused to discuss any resumption of service, and instead indicated that they wish to make submissions to challenge the constitutionality of the Minister's direction." A case management meeting with CIRB occurred last night and another was scheduled for early today. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia’s Pertamina gets ISCC certification for SAF
Indonesia’s Pertamina gets ISCC certification for SAF
Singapore, 23 August (Argus) — Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina has obtained International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) Corsia and ISCC EU RED-compliant certification for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Pertamina's downstream arm Pertamina Patra Niaga obtained the certification as it is powering a domestic flight with SAF during the Bali International Air Show next month, said company sources. Following the air show, Pertamina also plans to encourage SAF adoption among its aviation customers, starting with those at the Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali because of its high volumes of international flights. The Ngurah Rai aviation fuel terminal in Bali and Soekarno-Hatta Aviation Fuel Terminal and Hydrant Installation in Jakarta were the first locations to receive the certification. Pertamina's customers will be able to claim reduced carbon emissions resulting from the use of SAF, hydrotreated vegetable oil and used cooking oil (UCO) purchased from the refiner, its director of central marketing and commerce Maya Kusmaya said. He added that Pertamina is the first operator in southeast Asia to market ISCC Corsia certified SAF. But Pertamina's actual SAF production from palm and waste-based feedstocks such as UCO and palm oil mill effluent oil is likely to still start around 2026, when the second phase of its Cilacap "green refinery" is commissioned and comes on line, said a company source. It [previously produced SAF] (https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2251914) and renewable diesel at its Cilacap and Dumai refineries but using refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil. Pertamina awarded in July its first SAF import tender seeking 3,500 kilolitres of blended SAF for end-August delivery. The volumes will likely be used at the Bali International Air Show. The tender stated the blended SAF has a 30-40pc neat SAF component and the cargo must be Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials, ISCC Corsia or EU certified. Indonesia's government had expressed at the end of May hopes to finalise a national roadmap and action plan for the industrial development of SAF by June. But there have been no updates so far, sources from Pertamina and another trader said. The country previously shared plans to announce a SAF roadmap-related presidential regulation on the sidelines of September's air show with no further details disclosed. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada rail strike ends by forced arbitration: Update
Canada rail strike ends by forced arbitration: Update
Adds comments from railroads, Canadian Propane Association and background. Calgary, 22 August (Argus) — A Canadian rail strike that started early Thursday morning will be short-lived as the federal government stepped in to force the union and two railroads into binding arbitration. The federal government is now directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to "assist the parties in settling the outstanding terms of their collective agreements by imposing final binding arbitration," labour minister Steven MacKinnon said Thursday. At 12:01am ET today, Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) locked out union members, while the Teamsters Canada Rail conference launched a strike at CPKC . The work stoppage froze ongoing train shipments, even if they have not yet reached their destinations. CN ended its lockout at 6pm ET and initiated its service recovery plan. CN said it is satisfied that the labour action has ended, but it is "disappointed that a negotiated deal could not be achieved at the bargaining table despite its best efforts." CPKC said it would restart operations once it receives orders from CIRB. "Our teams are already preparing for the safe and orderly resumption of our rail network and further details about timing will be provided once we receive the CIRB's order," CPKC said. CPKC chief executive Keith Creel said the railroad regrets that the government had to intervene because he believes in and respects collective bargaining, but "given the stakes for all involved this situation required action." Though the work stoppage lasted less than a day, it may take weeks for rail operations to return to normal. The Canadian railroads last week embargoed shipments of toxic materials and earlier this week stopped loading any new railcars. Instead it focused on delivering already-loaded trains to their destination. Shippers across North America feared the impact of the work stoppages. The Canadian Propane Association today said that for each day that propane is not delivered, there is a sales loss of C$9.82mn and that would rise to $75.2mn after seven days. Labour minister MacKinnon has the authority under section 107 of the Canada Labour Code to mandate the sides return to the bargaining table, a tool the federal government was reluctant to use until now. By Brett Holmes and Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada rail strike stopped by forced arbitration
Canada rail strike stopped by forced arbitration
Calgary, 22 August (Argus) — A Canadian rail strike that started early Thursday morning will be short-lived as the federal government stepped in to force the union and two railroads into binding arbitration. The federal government is now directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to "assist the parties in settling the outstanding terms of their collective agreements by imposing final binding arbitration," labour minister Steven MacKinnon said Thursday. The minister has the authority under section 107 of the Canada Labour Code to mandate the sides return to the bargaining table, a tool the federal government was reluctant to use until now. Operations for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) stopped at 12:01am ET Thursday when they could not reach agreements over contract terms with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC). Operations will resume at the railroads during arbitration. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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