Viewpoint: SAF, E15 may lift US ethanol demand in 2024
Ethanol demand may get a boost next year as theUS paves a path for ethanol-derived sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and the potential for permanent year-round sales of 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) in the US midcontinent.
US ethanol blending averaged 890,000 b/d in 2023, according to Energy Information Administration data. Demand could strengthen in the midcontinent, where blending averaged 230,000 b/d, if lobbying requests from states to allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline are granted.
Eight midcontinent states — Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin — are jousting with the oil industry to sell E15 gasoline during the summer months, which is not currently allowed under the Clean Air Act, because of concerns over smog created by the fuel under warmer temperatures.
Since 2021, the Clean Air Act has offered Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) waivers exclusively for E10 gasoline, but if the petition from the states to eliminate these waivers is approved, demand for E15, whichcontains 50pcmore ethanol, could reach the same level as E10 in the petitioning states. This could strengthen ethanol demand in the country's largest producing region, lifting prices with it.
E15 has been available during the last two summers as the EPA has granted emergency RVP waivers for the fuel stemming from supply limits from the war in Ukraine.
EPA initially proposed approving the states' request this spring, which would have gone into effect in April 2024, but an official ruling has yet to be made. Iowa and Nebraska filed a lawsuit in August seeking a deadline for a decision, while the oil industry along with Arkansas and Oklahoma seek to delay the switch to E15, claiming it could limit gasoline supply and raise fuel costs.
US SAF production next year is expected to jump 17-fold to 94,300 b/d,according to Argus data. US renewable diesel production surged in 2023 by 64pc to 234,833 b/d, and expectations are for SAF to follow a similar path in 2024 as markets become more liquid. As biomass-based diesel D4 RINs enter the year oversupplied and are expected to exceed generation figures from 2023, speculation over SAF's effect on RIN markets has become a focus.
President Joe Biden's administration on 15 December opened the door for ethanol-based SAF to qualify for tax credits under the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), providing a track for the biofuel to expand. Ethanol had previously not qualified as a SAF feedstock due to its emissions rating falling beneath the IRA's threshold of 50pc reduction from traditional jet fuel under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) emissions measuring model.
But the Biden administration will deem the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) emissions model valid after it is updated by March 2024. SAF used or sold from 2023 through 2024 could qualify for up to $1.75¢/USG in federal tax credits, once modifications to the model are made, which will include emissions technologies like carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), renewable natural gas and land-based agricultural emissions.
The ethanol and airline industries lobbied for adoption of the GREET model on the grounds that it satisfies the IRA's requirements for life cycle emissions analysis. Bipartisan support from both houses of Congress also see GREET's adoption to support domestic agriculture and renewable fuels production.
The immediate timeline for implementation is unclear, but public and private sector support for GREET and, therefore, ethanol as an SAF feedstock will continue to gain attention in 2024.
The ethanol market response could be delayed until later in 2024 after the GREET modifications are installed and testing begins, according to participants.
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Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Washington, 23 August (Argus) — The status of rail freight in Canada remains uncertain after a Canadian labor union today issued a new strike notice to Canadian National (CN), less than a day after the federal government forced all parties to participate in binding arbitration. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) today issued notice to CN that members will go on strike at 10am ET on 26 August. The union had not issued a strike notice to CN earlier this week, but employees could not work yesterday after the CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked them out. "We do not believe that any of the matters we have been discussing over the last several days are insurmountable," the union said today in its notice to CN. It said it would be available to discuss issues to avoid another work stoppage. CN indicated it was frustrated with the union's action. "While CN is focused on its recovery plan to get back to powering the economy, the Teamsters are focused on returning to the picket line and holding the country hostage to their demands," the railroad said. CN last night had begun implementing a recovery plan to restore service . The union has not yet responded to inquiries about its action today. The office of labour minister Steven MacKinnon declined to comment. Rail operations at CN and CP stopped at 12:01am ET on Thursday after the union launched a strike at CPKC and both railroads locked out employees. That action ended late Thursday afternoon with the federal government directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to manage binding arbitration on the railroads. CIRB, an independent agency, has not yet said if it will accept the government's order. CN began moving some freight early on 23 August, but the new strike order issued soon by the union today could disrupt those plans. The union has also challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon's order regarding CPKC operations pending the outcome of a new ruling by the CIRB. CPKC's rail fleet remains parked in the meantime. CPKC said late Thursday it was disappointed in the minister's decision and sought to meet with CIRB to discuss resumption of service. CPKC said the union "refused to discuss any resumption of service, and instead indicated that they wish to make submissions to challenge the constitutionality of the Minister's direction." A case management meeting with CIRB occurred last night and another was scheduled for early today. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia’s Pertamina gets ISCC certification for SAF
Indonesia’s Pertamina gets ISCC certification for SAF
Singapore, 23 August (Argus) — Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina has obtained International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) Corsia and ISCC EU RED-compliant certification for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Pertamina's downstream arm Pertamina Patra Niaga obtained the certification as it is powering a domestic flight with SAF during the Bali International Air Show next month, said company sources. Following the air show, Pertamina also plans to encourage SAF adoption among its aviation customers, starting with those at the Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali because of its high volumes of international flights. The Ngurah Rai aviation fuel terminal in Bali and Soekarno-Hatta Aviation Fuel Terminal and Hydrant Installation in Jakarta were the first locations to receive the certification. Pertamina's customers will be able to claim reduced carbon emissions resulting from the use of SAF, hydrotreated vegetable oil and used cooking oil (UCO) purchased from the refiner, its director of central marketing and commerce Maya Kusmaya said. He added that Pertamina is the first operator in southeast Asia to market ISCC Corsia certified SAF. But Pertamina's actual SAF production from palm and waste-based feedstocks such as UCO and palm oil mill effluent oil is likely to still start around 2026, when the second phase of its Cilacap "green refinery" is commissioned and comes on line, said a company source. It [previously produced SAF] (https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2251914) and renewable diesel at its Cilacap and Dumai refineries but using refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil. Pertamina awarded in July its first SAF import tender seeking 3,500 kilolitres of blended SAF for end-August delivery. The volumes will likely be used at the Bali International Air Show. The tender stated the blended SAF has a 30-40pc neat SAF component and the cargo must be Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials, ISCC Corsia or EU certified. Indonesia's government had expressed at the end of May hopes to finalise a national roadmap and action plan for the industrial development of SAF by June. But there have been no updates so far, sources from Pertamina and another trader said. The country previously shared plans to announce a SAF roadmap-related presidential regulation on the sidelines of September's air show with no further details disclosed. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada rail strike ends by forced arbitration: Update
Canada rail strike ends by forced arbitration: Update
Adds comments from railroads, Canadian Propane Association and background. Calgary, 22 August (Argus) — A Canadian rail strike that started early Thursday morning will be short-lived as the federal government stepped in to force the union and two railroads into binding arbitration. The federal government is now directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to "assist the parties in settling the outstanding terms of their collective agreements by imposing final binding arbitration," labour minister Steven MacKinnon said Thursday. At 12:01am ET today, Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) locked out union members, while the Teamsters Canada Rail conference launched a strike at CPKC . The work stoppage froze ongoing train shipments, even if they have not yet reached their destinations. CN ended its lockout at 6pm ET and initiated its service recovery plan. CN said it is satisfied that the labour action has ended, but it is "disappointed that a negotiated deal could not be achieved at the bargaining table despite its best efforts." CPKC said it would restart operations once it receives orders from CIRB. "Our teams are already preparing for the safe and orderly resumption of our rail network and further details about timing will be provided once we receive the CIRB's order," CPKC said. CPKC chief executive Keith Creel said the railroad regrets that the government had to intervene because he believes in and respects collective bargaining, but "given the stakes for all involved this situation required action." Though the work stoppage lasted less than a day, it may take weeks for rail operations to return to normal. The Canadian railroads last week embargoed shipments of toxic materials and earlier this week stopped loading any new railcars. Instead it focused on delivering already-loaded trains to their destination. Shippers across North America feared the impact of the work stoppages. The Canadian Propane Association today said that for each day that propane is not delivered, there is a sales loss of C$9.82mn and that would rise to $75.2mn after seven days. Labour minister MacKinnon has the authority under section 107 of the Canada Labour Code to mandate the sides return to the bargaining table, a tool the federal government was reluctant to use until now. By Brett Holmes and Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada rail strike stopped by forced arbitration
Canada rail strike stopped by forced arbitration
Calgary, 22 August (Argus) — A Canadian rail strike that started early Thursday morning will be short-lived as the federal government stepped in to force the union and two railroads into binding arbitration. The federal government is now directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to "assist the parties in settling the outstanding terms of their collective agreements by imposing final binding arbitration," labour minister Steven MacKinnon said Thursday. The minister has the authority under section 107 of the Canada Labour Code to mandate the sides return to the bargaining table, a tool the federal government was reluctant to use until now. Operations for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) stopped at 12:01am ET Thursday when they could not reach agreements over contract terms with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC). Operations will resume at the railroads during arbitration. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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