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Importação pesa na produção de veículos em janeiro

  • Spanish Market: Battery materials, Biofuels, Metals, Oil products
  • 08/02/24

A produção brasileira de veículos ficou estável em janeiro, com importações registrando o maior resultado em dez anos e exportações em queda.

O país produziu 152.564 veículos em janeiro, praticamente sem mudanças em relação às 152.666 unidades no mesmo período em 2023, de acordo com a Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores (Anfavea). Em comparação a dezembro, houve recuo de 11pc.

A baixa na produção foi impulsionada principalmente por uma elevação histórica nas importações de veículos. As chegadas atingiram 31.500 unidades, o maior volume desde janeiro de 2014, com a Argentina representando 46pc deste total.

A participação de mercado chinesa no setor automotivo brasileiro também está crescendo significativamente nos últimos anos, saltando para 25pc das importações no mês passado, ante 2pc no mesmo intervalo em 2020. A Anfavea não forneceu dados sobre a fatia de mercado da China em 2023.

O retorno das tarifas de importações sobre veículos elétricos direcionou o aumento das chegadas, segundo o presidente da associação, Márcio de Lima Leite.

"Muitas empresas importaram volumes maiores que a demanda em dezembro para vender em janeiro e fevereiro", disse Leite, acrescentando que veículos elétricos e híbridos corresponderam a 14pc e 19pc das importações do mês, respectivamente.

Enquanto isso, as vendas de veículos cresceram para 161.615 unidades em janeiro, alta de 13pc frente ao mesmo intervalo em 2023 e redução de 35pc em comparação a dezembro.

O Brasil exportou 18.837 veículos no período, queda de 43pc na base anual e de 26pc em relação ao mês anterior. As vendas para a Argentina, Colômbia e Chile caíram 19pc, 79pc e 60pc, respectivamente.

Mover

As regulamentações para o Mover, o novo programa de descarbonização da frota de transporte, serão lançadas até o fim do Carnaval, confirmou o vice-presidente e ministro do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços (MDIC), Geraldo Alckmin, durante a entrevista coletiva da Anfavea nesta quinta.

A iniciativa ainda é uma Medida Provisória (MP) instituída pelo governo do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva e estabelecerá requisitos obrigatórios para a comercialização de novos veículos produzidos internamente e unidades importadas.

"Vamos trabalhar no Congresso para o mais rapidamente possível termos a aprovação da MP", afirmou Alckmin.

A Anfavea elogiou o programa e destacou seu potencial para angariar mais investimentos para a indústria automotiva.

Até o fim de janeiro, o país já atraiu mais de R$41 bilhões em investimentos de várias montadoras, como Volkswagen, GM, Stellantis, Renault e outras.

"Iremos passar de R$100 bilhões [em investimentos]", previu Leite.

Participação de mercado de veículos leves por combustível%
Jan-24Jan-23± (pp)
Gasolina4,42,22,2
Elétricos2,90,62,3
Híbridos2,51,60,9
Híbridos Plug-in2,51,21,3
Flex77,483,0-5,6
Diesel10,411,4-1,0

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20/12/24

Viewpoint: Copper volatility, uncertainty ahead in 2025

Viewpoint: Copper volatility, uncertainty ahead in 2025

Houston, 20 December (Argus) — US copper prices are expected to remain volatile in 2025 because of uncertain market conditions, including Chinese demand, electric vehicle (EV) rollouts and falling borrowing costs. Following a two-year downturn prompted by China's economic slowdown in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the next active price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit an all-time record high of $5.106/lb on 21 May 2024. Expectations of increased demand in China, the prospect of looming US interest rate cuts, and projected ramped-up demand for copper in EVs and the green energy sector fueled copper price gains into the mid-year. These expectations proved partly exaggerated, leading copper to fall back to an average of $4.33/lb over the second half of 2024. US copper market participants expect those same factors, albeit to varying degrees, to retain a prominent role in determining prices for 2025. Macroeconomic uncertainties Suppliers and consumers widely expect volatility to persist in the global copper trade as broader macroeconomic factors — chiefly Chinese demand and stimulus, US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions — and delayed US EV ramp-up plans pull the market in diverging directions. President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to implement import tariffs have further complicated the picture for US participants, with likely retaliatory tariffs clouding the picture even more. Trade disagreements and tariffs would not only raise costs but also curb demand as the flow of various goods is dented, market sources said. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve policymakers on 18 December signaled they are likely to cut the target rate by only 50 basis points next year, paring back their expectations from a prior 100 basis points as inflation remains sticky. The DXY dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, surged after the Fed announcement to its highest in two years. A strong dollar puts downward pressure on copper prices because it tends to weaken demand from holders of other currencies. Tariffs are also expected to spur inflation and may prompt the Fed to further slow the pace of rate cuts, or even hike rates, effectively lending support to the dollar, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies to buy into copper. The US Dollar index, DXY, surpassed 108.2 on 19 December, the highest since November 2022. Goldman Sachs has forecast that the greenback will remain strong in the near-term. Automakers slow EV transition Although the green energy transition — generally covering solar, wind, and EV markets for copper markets — is expected to contribute to US consumption of copper, automakers have signaled their interest in delaying EV deployments. Wind and solar markets are widely expected to remain growth sectors with US projects and installations scheduled to rise next year . Still, the picture for EVs, which could ultimately contribute to copper demand heavily, is murkier. EVs utilize copper in motor coils for engines, and the cabling for charging stations among other components, and each EV requires 183 lbs of copper, nearly four times more than equivalent internal combustion engine vehicles. Several automakers, including GM, Ford and Toyota, have either delayed EV plans or shifted more towards hybrids instead this year. Price outlooks diverge Market participants broadly expect the copper market to slide into a deficit by 2026, chiefly because of growing demand from the renewable sector but until then are split on the direction of prices. The CME next active month price through November averaged $4.24/lb in 2024, up from a $3.86/lb average for the same time period in 2023. Investment bank Goldman Sachs said copper prices will average $4.61/lb for 2025, forecasting upside risk from potential further stimulus while simultaneously seeing downside risk from likely US-China trade tensions. Other financial organizations have forecast copper to range from $3.97-4.99/lb in 2025. Citigroup forecast copper at $3.97/lb, Bank of America dropped its outlook to $4.28/lb while UBS was at $4.76-$4.99/lb. Most copper traders and analysts agree that 2025 will likely be a year of transition for the red metal market, buffeted by ongoing uncertainty. By Mike Hlafka Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: PGM demand from hydrogen sector to rise


20/12/24
20/12/24

Viewpoint: PGM demand from hydrogen sector to rise

London, 20 December (Argus) — Demand for platinum and iridium from the hydrogen industry will rise in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated because of delays to hydrogen project development. Demand from the hydrogen industry for platinum group metals (PGM) has increased significantly in recent years. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported a 123pc increase in demand for platinum from hydrogen applications year on year on 26 November, from a small base. The WPIC anticipates a further 32pc growth in 2025. PEM electrolysers and hydrogen fuel cells both utilise platinum and iridium, opening up a new end-market for some PGMs. Demand from hydrogen applications may offset falling autocatalyst demand from the automotive industry in the long term. Hydrogen industry demand for platinum, iridium and ruthenium will also support demand for palladium, even though palladium is not utilised in hydrogen applications. As demand for platinum from the hydrogen industry increases, palladium will increasingly be substituted for platinum in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, increasing automotive palladium demand and lifting PGM prices overall. More than $300bn in global hydrogen investments are earmarked through to 2030. Many governments seeking to reach their ambitious climate goals are investing in hydrogen, with 61 governments adopting hydrogen strategies as of 2024. "We know that all areas of the world will not shift to hydrogen in the same way as Europe, but we see technology advancing and costs falling, which gives us confidence that the hydrogen economy will be a big driver for platinum and iridium demand in the future," Heraeus Precious Metals Germany head of trading Dominik Sperzel told Argus . According to the WPIC, 11pc of global platinum demand will come from hydrogen application in 2030, totalling 900,000oz. By the late 2030s hydrogen energy production is expected to be the largest end-market for platinum, with 3.5mn oz of demand expected by 2040. "We have seen the hype over the past four to five years. Iridium prices started to increase in 2020 because of supply disruptions and on the demand side, people were excited about new technology announcements and projects entering the pipeline," Sperzel said. Johnson Matthey iridium prices increased by 285pc from the start of 1 June 2020 to 1 June 2021, reaching a peak of $6,300/troy ounce (toz). But they have since fallen by 29pc to $4,450/toz on 12 December as hydrogen demand failed to meet expectations. The development of the hydrogen economy has underperformed in recent years relative to expectations, and expected demand for PGMs has not yet materialised, according to PGM market participants. Many hydrogen projects remain unfinanced, and much of the hype has since abated. There are several challenges inhibiting the development of a widespread hydrogen economy, including the lack of existing infrastructure for hydrogen delivery. Another has been the availability of government subsidies, as significant funds have been earmarked for hydrogen investment but not yet disbursed. "Since 2022 to this year, subsidies available for green hydrogen projects have gone from $50bn to $300bn, but the funds haven't been flowing until early this year. It was only in June that the first of the European subsidies really began to be distributed to support the construction of these facilities. Now that subsidies are beginning to flow, development will accelerate quickly, driving consumer demand for fuel cell electric vehicles," World Platinum Investment Council research director Edward Sterck told Argus . The outlook for hydrogen as an energy source is improving, particularly in Europe and China, as a result of public sector investment and policy focus. The EU in April included over €100mn in grant funding for the construction of hydrogen refuelling stations across seven EU countries, including Poland, in a larger package of €424mn for zero-emission mobility. The EU in May 2024 adopted its hydrogen and gas decarbonisation package, which introduced a regulatory framework for dedicated hydrogen infrastructure. According to the Hydrogen Council, in July 2024 alone, six European hydrogen projects reached final investment decision (FID) status. Investment in hydrogen projects reaching FID globally has increased sevenfold since 2020 from 102 committed projects to 434 in 2024. "We remain positive about the project pipeline and PGM demand. The open question is if the push will happen in the next year, or take longer," Sperzel said. By Maeve Flaherty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Shell and Prax call off deal on German refinery stake


20/12/24
20/12/24

Shell and Prax call off deal on German refinery stake

Hamburg, 20 December (Argus) — Shell's planned sale of its 37.5pc stake in Germany's 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery to UK energy firm Prax has fallen through. "Both parties have taken the decision not to proceed with the transaction," Prax said, without elaborating. The refinery will continue to operate as normal, it said. Shell said the companies had reached the end of an agreed timeframe for closing the deal. It said it is still looking to sell the stake. The deal with Prax, which was announced a year ago , was initially due to be completed in the first half of 2024. Shell owns its stake in Schwedt through the PCK joint venture, which also includes Italy's Eni and Rosneft Deutschland, one of the Russian firm's two German subsidiaries. Shell previously attempted to sell its PCK share to Austria-based Alcmene in 2021 but that deal failed to complete after Rosneft Deutschland exercised its pre-emption rights later that year. Rosneft was unable to buy the stake after the German government placed its two German subsidiaries under trust administration in 2022 in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, forcing Shell to seek an alternative buyer. In October, a court in Germany rejected a complaint by Rosneft Deutschland against Shell's plan to sell its PCK stake to Prax. By Svea Winter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: EU, UK mandates will drive global SAF demand


20/12/24
20/12/24

Viewpoint: EU, UK mandates will drive global SAF demand

London, 20 December (Argus) — Europe will be a primary consumption hub for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2025, driven by EU and UK mandates that come into effect in January. The mandates could push European SAF demand above 1.5mn t next year, according to Argus Consulting estimates. There should be more than enough global SAF supply to meet mandated demand in Europe in the early stages of obligations. If all announced projects are completed on time, global capacity could surpass 10mn t/yr in 2025, according to Argus Consulting, with hydrotreated esters and fatty acids synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) still the dominant SAF production pathway. But several projects have been hit with delays in the past, and some European majors have scaled back or paused their capacity plans. Actual production is likely to be far lower than nameplate capacity, with the International Air Transport Association (Iata) forecasting global output of 2.1mn t next year . European suppliers may also opt to maximise hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production over HEFA-SPK. In most HEFA-SPK plants, the production process relies on first hydrotreating vegetable oils and fats, a process aligned with standard HVO production. Renewable diesel demand should increase with higher mandates for renewables in road transport and changes to German and Dutch carryover rules on renewable fuel tickets next year. At the same time, European HVO imports face barriers. Definitive EU anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on Chinese biodiesel and HVO are expected to be imposed by February . And anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties are in place on HVO and biodiesel of US and Canadian origin . SAF is excluded from ADDs on Chinese biofuels. SAF supply has grown at a faster pace than demand this year, pushing the northwest European HEFA-SPK premium to jet fuel to record lows . The European benchmark HEFA-SPK fob ARA range assessment averaged around $2,203/t over 1 January-12 December, down from around $3,016/t in the same period last year. Ready, set, mandate Fuel suppliers will need to incorporate a 2pc share of SAF in their annual EU jet fuel deliveries from next year, with the share rising to 70pc by 2050. Synthetic aviation fuels, such as e-kerosine and hydrogen, must reach a total share of 1.2pc from 2030, rising to 35pc in 2050. The UK's mandate also requires aviation fuel suppliers to hit a 2pc SAF share in 2025, increasing linearly to reach 22pc in 2040. A UK obligation for power-to-liquid SAF will be introduced from 2028 at 0.2pc of total jet fuel demand, rising to 3.5pc in 2040. Separately, London's Heathrow airport aims to increase the share of SAF used to 3pc in 2025 as part of an incentive scheme that helps airlines cover extra costs. Beyond Europe Progress to introduce SAF blending obligations or legislate consumption targets is slower outside of Europe. In China, a pilot programme was launched earlier this year to support domestic SAF uptake. A consumption target of 50,000t was set in the country's five-year plan for 2021-25. Other initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region include South Korea's plan to require all international flights departing from its airports to use a mix of 1pc SAF from 2027 and Singapore's 1pc SAF target by 2026 for flights departing the country. Indonesia plans to require 1pc SAF from 2027, while Malaysia and Hong Kong are also expected to set targets. In the US, the level of priority to be given to renewable aviation fuels is less clear following Donald Trump's election victory. Guidance around a new producers' tax credit, set to come into effect next year, is still pending . The growth of the US SAF market has so far been driven mainly by federal and state financial incentives. By Giulia Squadrin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update


19/12/24
19/12/24

Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update

Adds updates throughout Washington, 19 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump is offering his support for a rewritten spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown but leave out a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. The bill — which Republicans rewrote today after Trump attacked an earlier bipartisan agreement — would avoid a government shutdown starting Saturday, deliver agricultural aid and provide disaster relief. Trump said the bill was a "very good deal" that would also include a two-year suspension of the "very unnecessary" ceiling on federal debt, until 30 January 2027. "All Republicans, and even the Democrats, should do what is best for our Country, and vote 'YES' for this Bill, TONIGHT!" Trump wrote in a social media post. Passing the bill would require support from Democrats, who are still reeling after Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — upended a spending deal they had spent weeks negotiating with US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). Democrats have not yet said if they would vote against the new agreement. "We are prepared to move forward with the bipartisan agreement that we thought was negotiated in good faith with House Republicans," House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) said earlier today. That earlier deal would have kept the government funded through 14 March, in addition to providing a one-year extension to the farm bill, $100bn in disaster relief and $10bn in aid for farmers. The bill would also provide a waiver that would avoid a looming ban on summertime sales of E15 across much of the US. Ethanol industry officials said they would urge lawmakers to vote against any package without the E15 provision. "Pulling E15 out of the bill makes absolutely no sense and is an insult to America's farmers and renewable fuel producers," Renewable Fuels Association chief executive Geoff Cooper said. If no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET, federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail services, although some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a short-term funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said. The US Department of Energy expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan. The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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