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Erbil, Baghdad relations complicate further

  • Spanish Market: Condensate, Crude oil
  • 12/03/24

Iraq's finance ministry has said on Monday that it began paying the salaries of Region's civil servants in Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdistan region for February, in compliance with a recent ruling by the country's top court. But a resignation by a Kurdish judge from the court ushers in further complications for relations between Erbil and Baghdad.

"Based on the directives of the prime minister and the approval of the minister of finance… the ministry announced the transfer of salaries of Kurdistan region's civilian employees... as part of the financial allocations for February 2024," the ministry said in a statement.

Meanwhile, a Kurdish judge of the federal court Abdulrahman Zebari today announced his resignation in protest of the courts recent "hostile" rulings. In a press conference, Zebari expressed his concerns that the court's decisions were undermining the principles of the federal system, particularly affecting the rights of the Kurdistan Region. The court comprises of nine principal members, of which two are Kurds, and four reserve.

The federal court on 21 February ruled that responsibility for paying the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) civil servants will shift from Erbil to Baghdad, with the sum to be deducted from Iraqi Kurdistan's budget share. It also ordered the KRG to hand over all oil and non-oil revenues to Baghdad. The court decisions, in effect, gave Baghdad further control over the KRG finances.

In the budget law that was passed in June, the KRG is required to deliver 400,000 b/d of crude to Iraq's storage facilities at Ceyhan in Turkey, with Baghdad's state-owned Somo holding the marketing rights. If oil cannot be exported through Ceyhan or other designated ports, as has been the case since late March, it must be redirected for domestic refining, including refineries in the country's north.

In return, the KRG has been allocated 12.6pc of the Iraqi budget, to be paid through monthly transfers. With northern Iraq crude exports remained shut since March 2023 a result of an international court ruling, Erbil claims it is unable to honor such commitment. Meanwhile, international oil companies (IOCs) operating in Erbil have resorted to selling their crude production "locally" and at major discounts but it remains unclear how much is being produced in the KRG's territory.

The ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) said on 22 February that the "decisions are contrary to the principles of federalism and the principle of separation of powers enshrined in the Iraqi constitution."

Relations between Baghdad and Erbil have seen complications since 2014 when the KRG began independently selling crude via exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline [ITP], with Baghdad contesting the legality of the move. But the relation particularly saw further strain after an arbitration court at the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce ruled Ankara had breached a 1973 agreement with Iraq by allowing crude marketed by the KRG to be exported without Baghdad's consent.

Baghdad's federal government, with the help of multiple federal court rulings, has managed to downgrade Kurdistan region's autonomy over both its finances and energy sector. The court's ruling in February 2022 overturned an existing law governing Kurdish oil and gas exports, and upheld Baghdad's request that all KRG production-sharing contracts be placed under federal oil ministry oversight.

The judgment rendered unconstitutional the KRG's own 2007 oil and gas law — which has provided the basis for numerous production-sharing contracts with international investors — and raised questions over the future of the KRG's active contracts.

IOCs operating in the Kurdistan region continue to request US help to persuade the federal government in Baghdad to resume crude exports from the north of the country. US vice-president Kamala Harris on 16 February reiterated President Biden's invitation to Iraq's prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to visit the White House. The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur) is betting on US mediation during al-Sudani's visit to restart crude exports from the Kurdistan region. Washington and Baghad have begun talks on ending the US-led military coalition in Iraq.


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15/05/25

Казахстан перераспределил тариф на транзит нефти в Китай

Казахстан перераспределил тариф на транзит нефти в Китай

Riga, 15 May (Argus) — Казахстан с 1 мая перераспределил ставки тарифа на транзит российской нефти в Китай. Суммарная стоимость транспортировки сохранилась в размере $15/т без учета НДС, при этом прокачка сырья по участку Прииртышск (граница России и Казахстана) — Атасу подорожала, а поставка по маршруту Атасу — Алашанькоу подешевела, сообщил 10 апреля казахстанский трубопроводный оператор Казтрансойл (КТО). С 1 мая транспортировка российской нефти по участку Прииртышск — Атасу подорожает до $7,24/т с $4,23/т, а прокачка по маршруту Атасу — Алашанькоу подешевеет до $7,76/т с $10,77/т без учета НДС. Данное направление используется для транзита 10 млн т/год российской нефти в Китай через Казахстан. ________________ Больше ценовой информации и аналитических обзоров рынка транспортировки грузов в странах Каспийского региона и Центральной Азии — в отчете Argus Транспорт Каспия . Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook


15/05/25
15/05/25

IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook

London, 15 May (Argus) — The IEA has nudged up its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and 2026, citing better macroeconomic forecasts and the effects of lower oil prices. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), published today, the Paris-based watchdog raised its projected increase in oil consumption by 20,000 b/d to 740,000 b/d in 2025, bringing overall demand to 103.9mn b/d. It increased its oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 70,000 b/d to 760,000 b/d. In its previous OMR the IEA cut its oil demand forecasts for 2025 by 310,000 b/d after the US' announcement of an array of import levies in April. But the IEA said today the tariff supply shock appeared less severe than initially implied, pointing to subsequent US trade arrangements with the UK and China. US talks with other countries continue. "Subsequent pauses, concessions, exemptions and negotiations are likely to attenuate the levies' permanence and economic impact," the IEA said. But it said policy uncertainty continued to weigh on consumer and business sentiment, and it sees oil consumption growth slowing to 650,000 b/d between now until the end of 2025, from 990,000 b/d in the first quarter of the year. Its demand growth forecast for 2025 is 320,000 b/d lower than at the start of the year. The IEA increased its global oil supply growth forecast by 380,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d in 2025, with almost all the rise accounted for by the Saudi-led unwinding of Opec+ cuts. It nudged its oil supply growth forecast for 2026 up by 10,000 b/d to 960,000 b/d. Eight Opec+ members earlier this month agreed to continue accelerating the pace of their planned unwinding of 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts for June. The IEA again revised down its supply growth forecasts for the US, mainly because of the effects of lower oil prices on US shale producers. It downgraded US growth by 50,000 b/d to 440,000 b/d for 2025 and by 100,000 b/d to 180,000 b/d for 2026, and said US tight oil production in 2026 would contract on an annual basis for the first time since 2020. The IEA said sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela are a key uncertainty in its forecasts. It noted that Russian crude supply grew by 170,000 b/d in April as crude prices fell below the G7 $60/bl price cap. The IEA's balances show supply exceeding demand by 730,000 b/d in 2025 and by 930,000 b/d in 2026. It said global observed stocks rose by 25.1mn bl in March, with preliminary data showing a further rise in April. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Shale unable to absorb price decline: Continental


14/05/25
14/05/25

Shale unable to absorb price decline: Continental

New York, 14 May (Argus) — Shale output growth plans are being sidelined for the time being as this year's decline in oil prices curtails investment into the sector, according to the chief executive officer of Continental Resources. "There's nothing that we can use in the industry to absorb a $10/bl drop in price from a technology standpoint," chief executive officer Doug Lawler said at the Super DUG Conference & Expo 2025 in Fort Worth, Texas, today. "There are not capital efficiencies that can be captured that makes up $10/bl." The pullback in capital that is starting to be seen across the industry as a result of the price rout caused by uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariffs and surging Opec+ supply will continue as the year progresses, Lawler said. Top shale company executives have warned in recent weeks that shale is in for a rough ride given the price drop, which has since stabilized following a US-China trade truce agreed last weekend. US onshore crude production has likely peaked , according to leading independent Diamondback Energy, while Occidental Petroleum chief executive Vicki Hollub warned the peak could come sooner than expected . "I would maybe caveat it just a little bit different, and not call it a peak, necessarily, but I think we're in for a period of a plateau," Lawler said today. Earlier this year, Continental announced a joint venture with Turkey's national oil company and US-based TransAtlantic Petroleum to develop oil and gas resources in southeast and northwest Turkey. "We don't see it necessarily as an international strategy," Lawler said. "We really see it more as a continuation of the history and heritage of the company, of being exploration-focused." It also should not be viewed as the company seeing a lack of domestic opportunities, given 5-10pc of its overall annual capital budget will be directed at exploration over the next few years. Continental, which was founded by shale billionaire and leading Trump donor Harold Hamm in 1967, is the largest leaseholder and producer in the Bakken basin. It also has positions in the Scoop and Stack plays of the Anadarko basin of Oklahoma, and is also active in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Permian basin of Texas. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bolivian president bypasses reelection


14/05/25
14/05/25

Bolivian president bypasses reelection

Montevideo, 14 May (Argus) — Bolivian president Luis Arce will not run for a second five-year term and instead backed a united front to elect another leftist candidate. Arce's decision on Tuesday came on the eve of the filing deadline for the 17 August election. He called on former president Evo Morales to also step aside from the race to improve the chances of another left-wing contender. Morales is fighting a court ruling that he is ineligible to run after already having multiple terms. Arce said the Movement to Socialism (MAS) party should rally behind senate president Andronico Rodriguez, 36. Rodriguez announced his candidacy on 3 May as a third way, but remains closely aligned with Morales. He has led the senate since 2020. Four center-right candidates are expected to compete in the race. The MAS has governed Bolivia for most of the past 20 years. Arce and Morales, allies turned enemies, blame each other for Bolivia's economic turmoil, including its dwindling oil and natural gas production. Inflation through April was 5.5pc, up from 1.3pc in the same period last year. Inflation was 9.9pc last year, the highest since 2008. The World Bank forecasts GDP growth at 1.4pc for the year. The oil and gas sector is at the heart of the crisis. Bolivia has gone from fuel independence to importing 54pc of gasoline and 86pc of diesel, both of which are heavily subsidized. The government forecast $2.9bn on fuel subsidies this year. Crude production was close to 21,000 b/d in 2024, according to the statistics agency. It was approximately 51,000 b/d in 2014. Natural gas output, the cornerstone of Bolivia's economic growth for most of this century, has fallen. Output was approximately 33mn m³/d in 2024, down from a peak of 56mn m³/d in 2006. Proven reserves were at 4.5 trillion cf in 2023, less than half of the 10.7 trillion reported in 2017, according to the state-owned YPFB. YPFB in early May announced a new tender to certify reserves by the end of this year. Bolivia stopped daily piped gas exports to Argentina in September and has a contract to export up to 20mn m³/d to Brazil. Domestic demand for gas is close to 14mn m³/d, stated YPFB. On 1 April Argentina began using Bolivia's pipeline infrastructure to ship natural gas to Brazil. Three companies — Argentina's Pluspetrol and Tecpetrol, and France's TotalEnergies — have so far sent gas to Brazil. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec downgrades non-Opec+ supply growth forecasts


14/05/25
14/05/25

Opec downgrades non-Opec+ supply growth forecasts

London, 14 May (Argus) — Opec has downgraded its 2025 and 2026 non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecasts for a second month in a row, mainly driven by lower output expectations from the US. In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), published today, Opec revised down by 100,000 b/d its non-Opec supply growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 810,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d, respectively. This follows identical downgrades of 100,000 b/d for each year in Opec's previous report . While Opec did not give a reason for its supply revisions, the recent decline in oil prices is likely to have played a role. Production growth in the US, particularly in the shale patch, is highly sensitive to price movements, for example. US shale producer Diamondback Energy chief executive Travis Stice earlier this month said US onshore crude production had likely peaked as drilling activity slowed in response to lower oil prices. Opec sees US supply growing by 330,000 b/d in 2025 and 280,000 b/d in 2026, compared with 450,000 b/d and 460,000 b/d in its March MOMR. Lower non-Opec+ supply expectations may have played a role in the decision by some Opec+ members to accelerate their planned supply increases for May and June. Opec kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for this year and next at 1.3mn b/d and 1.28mn b/d, respectively. These forecasts remain bullish compared to those of the IEA and US' EIA. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 106,000 b/d to 40.92mn b/d in April, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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