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G7 leaders to meet over Iran's attack on Israel

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 14/04/24

Leaders of the G7 will meet today, 14 April, to co-ordinate a diplomatic response to Iran's overnight air attack on Israel, which ushered a new phase in a six-month conflict that is threatening regional escalation.

G7 presidency Italy "has organized a conference at leaders' level for the afternoon of today," Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni said on X, formerly Twitter. US President Joe Biden has pledged a co-ordinated G7 diplomatic response and condemned the Iranian assault.

Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel on the evening of 13 April, according to the country's state-owned news agency Irna. Almost all were intercepted before they reached Israeli airspace and there were no fatalities reported by Israel. One civilian was injured and an air force base in southern Israel was lightly damaged, according to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF).

The Iranian attack came in response to a suspected Israeli air strike on the vicinity of Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, on 1 April. Tehran's foreign minster Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Iran considers this to be the end of its operation.

But energy markets, which have been supported in recent weeks by a geopolitical risk premium, will face a week of uncertainty about whether Israel will retaliate. The front-month June Ice Brent contract was trading at $90.45/bl before markets closed for the weekend, and hit a more-than five month high of $92.18/bl on Friday, 12 April.

Israeli officials said the attack was "a severe and dangerous escalation" from Tehran. Israel's war cabinet is meeting today to discuss a response.

"We will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us," said cabinet minister Benny Gantz.

The US is urging Israel to claim victory for its defence, in an apparent effort to discourage Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government from feeling compelled to retaliate. While noting that Israel ultimately will make the decision as to how to respond, White House national security communications co-ordinator John Kirby, in a televised interview today, hailed what he called Israel's "incredible military achievement" in defending itself against the attack. Very little managed to penetrate the defensive shield, "and the damage was extraordinarily light," he said.

The US military played a role in helping to defend against the attack, bringing down "several dozens of drones and missiles," Kirby said. UK prime minister Rishi Sunak said the Royal Air Force shot down "a number of Iranian attack drones".

Israel's western allies are urging it to show restraint as they try to prevent a wider conflict in the Middle East, which could directly affect oil producers and send energy prices soaring. President Biden is especially keen to avoid such a scenario in an election year.


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15/01/25

N.EU HRC forward curve flattens

N.EU HRC forward curve flattens

London, 15 January (Argus) — The north European hot-rolled coil (HRC) forward curve has flattened considerably of late, lessening the strong contango of recent months. March traded at €620/t today on the CME Group's north European contract, and June at a slight premium of €623/t. On screen, April also traded at €623/t. Some derivatives participants expressed surprise at the narrow range, as they thought the curve would be firmer on the back of impending import constraints: the European Commission is currently conducting a functional review of its steel safeguard, which was requested by Eurofer and member states. Mills' firmer spot stance is seemingly generating some small restocking at present. Several service centres have reported brisker activity in the past few days, and traders suggest enquiries are also increasing, although it is hard to make imports work at present. The market leader is still offering officially at €630/t base, and has made sales close to €600/t, and higher in some regions. Most other offers are €600/t and above, although one producer is still offering close to €580/t, according to buyers. The curve is still at a fairly strong contango compared with spot prices, with Argus ' underlying northwest EU HRC index averaging €564.50/t so far this month — the index was at €573/t on Tuesday, up by €14.70/t since the start of the month. Over the same period mill margins have widened slightly more, with raw material costs also decelerating. The HRC index was at a €78.89/t premium to Argus ' daily blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace opex cost marker on Tuesday, up from €60.65/t on 2 January. Other participants question the strength of underlying demand, and suggest this is driving the flat curve. Data from the IFO Institute show overall German manufacturing inventory rose to its highest level in over a decade in December, while new orders contracted at the fastest rate since the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic in June 2020. The German economy contracted last year amid high energy costs and difficulties competing in export markets. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec sees 1.4mn b/d oil demand growth in 2026


15/01/25
15/01/25

Opec sees 1.4mn b/d oil demand growth in 2026

London, 15 January (Argus) — Opec's first global oil demand projections for 2026 see consumption growth of just over 1.4mn b/d, roughly the same as its forecast for this year. In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) today, Opec forecast oil demand growing by 1.43mn b/d to 106.63mn b/d, underpinned by continued "solid economic activity in Asia and other non-OECD countries." Opec sees consumption growing by 1.45mn b/d this year, unchanged from its previous estimate. But it trimmed its 2024 demand growth estimate by 70,000 b/d to 1.54mn b/d, a sixth consecutive monthly downward revision. This brings Opec further in line with forecasters such as the IEA and EIA, but the gap between them remains large, particularly given 2024 has ended. Opec's oil demand growth estimate for 2024 is 600,000 b/d above that of the IEA's 940,000 b/d. And there is now an 850,000 b/d gap between Opec's 2024 total oil demand estimate of 103.75mn b/d and the IEA's 102.9mn b/d. Opec's oil demand growth estimate for 2025 is 400,000 b/d above the IEA's forecast for 1.05mn b/d. China, which has long driven global oil demand growth but whose economy is now slowing, is projected to add 270,000 b/d in 2026, compared with 310,000 b/d in 2025, around 300,000 b/d in 2024 and about 1.4mn b/d in 2023. In terms of supply, the producer group sees non-Opec+ liquids supply growth at 1.1mn b/d, the same as 2025 and again driven by gains from the US, Brazil and Canada. It said non-Opec+ liquids supply increased by 1.3mn b/d in 2024. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 14,000 b/d to 40.65mn in December, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec put the call on Opec+ crude at 42.5mn b/d for this year and 42.7mn b/d for next. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Eni plans to close Brindisi cracker by end April


15/01/25
15/01/25

Eni plans to close Brindisi cracker by end April

Milan, 15 January (Argus) — Italy's Eni is planning to close its steam cracking capacity in Brindisi by the end of April despite calls for a rethink, trade union Filctem Cgil said. "The company said it intends to close the cracker within the first four months of the year," Filctem Cgil national secretary Antonio Pepe told Argus . The timeline emerged last week at a meeting between the trade unions, government and Eni at the industry ministry in Rome called to discuss the next steps for the Brindisi plant. It followed an earlier meeting in December on Eni's plans to shut its cracking capacity at Priolo in Sicily and end polyethylene production at its 160,000t/yr site in Ragusa. At that meeting Eni said it intended to close the Priolo cracker by the end of this year and start of 2026. "There will now be a final meeting at the end of this month to pull together the threads of the two meetings and take decisions," Pepe said. Eni, which is more than 30pc state owned, is looking to significantly cut the exposure of its chemicals business Versalis to basic chemicals, a sector that it sees is facing structural and irreversible decline in Europe. Last October, it unveiled a €2bn ($2.06bn) euro restructuring plan to close basic chemical plants and invest in innovative platforms over the next five years. The plans include building a new biorefinery at the Priolo site at a cost of around €800-900mn. Eni has previously said the Brindisi and Priolo crackers will be shut down within 12-18 months . The nameplate ethylene capacity at Brindisi is 410,000 t/yr and propylene capacity is 220,000 t/yr. The Priolo site has nameplate capacities of 430,000 t/yr ethylene, 250,000 t/yr propylene, and 790,000 t/yr aromatics. Filctem CGIL has called on Rome to reject Eni's plans to close cracking operations at Brindisi and Priolo, claiming it would put 20,000 jobs at risk and deal a death blow to Italy's chemicals industry. By Stephen Jewkes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Inpex wins Norwegian offshore exploration licences


15/01/25
15/01/25

Inpex wins Norwegian offshore exploration licences

Tokyo, 15 January (Argus) — Japanese upstream firm Inpex has won eight oil and gas exploration permits offshore Norway, expanding its operations in the country, Inpex said today. Inpex was awarded exploration licences PL1263, PL318D, PL1264, PL1257, and PL636D located between the northern North Sea and the southern Norwegian Sea, along with PL 1276, PL1274 and PL1194C in the northern Norwegian Sea through its local subsidiary Inpex Idemitsu Norge (IIN). The successful bid was part of the awards in the pre-defined areas (APA) 2024 licensing round . IIN secured five licenses in the 2023 APA round . The APA rounds are held every year and focus on mature areas of the Norwegian continental shelf. The aim is to facilitate the discovery and production of remaining oil and gas resources in these areas before existing infrastructure is shut down. In the latest round, 33 of the licences are in the North Sea, 19 in the Norwegian Sea and one in the Barents Sea. The latest licences will contribute to expanding its Norwegian business portfolio, Inpex said, given the potential of jointly developing the new assets with existing assets in the surrounding area. The company has continued stable production at the Snorre and Fram oil fields in the northern North Sea. The Japanese firm aims to strengthen its upstream business as part of its long-term strategy, while it invests in renewable energy such as green ammonia. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA warns of supply squeeze from Russia, Iran sanctions


15/01/25
15/01/25

IEA warns of supply squeeze from Russia, Iran sanctions

London, 15 January (Argus) — The IEA sees a slightly tighter oil market this year than it previously forecast and said new US sanctions on Russia and Iran could further squeeze balances. The outgoing administration of US President Joe Biden announced additional sanctions on Russia's energy exports earlier this month, and moved to tighten sanctions on Iran's oil exports in December. "We maintain our supply forecasts for both countries until the full impact of sanctions becomes more apparent, but the new measures could result in a tightening of crude and product balances," the IEA said today in its latest monthly Oil Market Report (OMR). But the effect of incoming US President Donald Trump on Russian and Iranian supply remains a key variable. As things stand, the IEA projects a 720,000 b/d supply surplus this year — showing a well cushioned oil market. This is around 230,000 b/d less than its previous forecast. For 2024, the IEA's balances show a small supply surplus of 20,000 b/d. The Paris-based agency sees global oil supply growing by 1.8mn b/d to 104.7mn b/d in 2025, compared to growth of 1.9mn b/d in its December report. Almost all of the 2025 growth — 1.5mn b/d — will come from non-Opec+ countries such as US, Brazil, Guyana, Canada and Argentina. The IEA continues to assume all current Opec+ cuts will remain in place this year, although the alliance plans to start increasing output from April. The IEA said global oil supply grew by 650,000 b/d in 2024. The agency sees global oil demand growing by 1.05mn b/d in 2025, down by 30,000 b/d from its December forecast. This should see oil demand reach 104.0mn b/d, with most of the gains driven by "a gradually improving economic outlook for developed economies, while lower oil prices will also incentivise consumption." China, which has long driven global oil demand growth but whose economy is now slowing, will add 220,000 b/d in 2025, compared with 180,000 b/d in 2024 and 1.35mn b/d in 2023. But the IEA revised up its oil demand growth estimates for 2024 by 90,000 b/d to 940,000 b/d. This was mostly due to better-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter, which at 1.5mn b/d was highest since the same period in 2023 and 260,000 b/d above than its previous forecast. This increase was mostly due to lower fuel prices, colder weather and abundant petrochemical feedstocks, the IEA said. The IEA said global observed oil stocks increased by 12.2mn bl in November, with higher crude stocks on land and water offsetting refined product draws. It said preliminary data show a further stock build in December. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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