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G7 leaders to meet over Iran's attack on Israel

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 14/04/24

Leaders of the G7 will meet today, 14 April, to co-ordinate a diplomatic response to Iran's overnight air attack on Israel, which ushered a new phase in a six-month conflict that is threatening regional escalation.

G7 presidency Italy "has organized a conference at leaders' level for the afternoon of today," Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni said on X, formerly Twitter. US President Joe Biden has pledged a co-ordinated G7 diplomatic response and condemned the Iranian assault.

Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel on the evening of 13 April, according to the country's state-owned news agency Irna. Almost all were intercepted before they reached Israeli airspace and there were no fatalities reported by Israel. One civilian was injured and an air force base in southern Israel was lightly damaged, according to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF).

The Iranian attack came in response to a suspected Israeli air strike on the vicinity of Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, on 1 April. Tehran's foreign minster Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Iran considers this to be the end of its operation.

But energy markets, which have been supported in recent weeks by a geopolitical risk premium, will face a week of uncertainty about whether Israel will retaliate. The front-month June Ice Brent contract was trading at $90.45/bl before markets closed for the weekend, and hit a more-than five month high of $92.18/bl on Friday, 12 April.

Israeli officials said the attack was "a severe and dangerous escalation" from Tehran. Israel's war cabinet is meeting today to discuss a response.

"We will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us," said cabinet minister Benny Gantz.

The US is urging Israel to claim victory for its defence, in an apparent effort to discourage Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government from feeling compelled to retaliate. While noting that Israel ultimately will make the decision as to how to respond, White House national security communications co-ordinator John Kirby, in a televised interview today, hailed what he called Israel's "incredible military achievement" in defending itself against the attack. Very little managed to penetrate the defensive shield, "and the damage was extraordinarily light," he said.

The US military played a role in helping to defend against the attack, bringing down "several dozens of drones and missiles," Kirby said. UK prime minister Rishi Sunak said the Royal Air Force shot down "a number of Iranian attack drones".

Israel's western allies are urging it to show restraint as they try to prevent a wider conflict in the Middle East, which could directly affect oil producers and send energy prices soaring. President Biden is especially keen to avoid such a scenario in an election year.


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Rio Tinto to invest $2.5bn in Argentina lithium mine


12/12/24
12/12/24

Rio Tinto to invest $2.5bn in Argentina lithium mine

Montevideo, 12 December (Argus) — International miner Rio Tinto will invest $2.5bn to expand its Rincon lithium operation, potentially increasing Argentina's production of the metal six-fold in the next decade, it said today. The company began initial production at Rincon's 3,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr starter plant in November. Rincon in Argentina's northern Salta province is Rio Tinto's first commercial lithium operation. It taps brine lithium. In October, it finalized the acquisition of Rincon from US-based Arcadium Lithium. The new investment will increase annual production to 60,000t of battery grade lithium carbonate. Construction on the expansion should start in mid-2025 and ramped-up production using direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology should start in 2028, eventually reaching capacity early in the next decade. The project will add to Argentina's efforts to become a world-class energy player with lithium, LNG and oil exports transforming the country in the coming years. Argentina was the fourth lithium producer in 2023, with 9,600t, according to the US Geological Survey. It has 3.6mn t of lithium reserves and 22mn t of lithium resources, second only to neighboring Bolivia. Argentina, Bolivia and Chile form the "lithium triangle," which holds around 60pc of the world's lithium resources. Chile is the world's second producer after Austria, while Bolivia's production is negligible. Rio Tinto referenced Argentina's economic reforms, including an incentive mechanism for long-term investments, known as the RIGI, as providing a new environment for investment. The RIGI is applicable to investments over $200mn and provides tax and customs benefits, as well as legal stability. Rio Tinto would join eight projects that have already applied for RIGI approval. President Javier Milei announced on 10 December, his first anniversary in office, that the government was planning sweeping tax reforms that would lower 90pc of the country's taxes, and elimination of exchange rate and customs controls. Monthly inflation in November was 2.4pc, down from 25.5pc in December 2023. In a September 2024 report, the Argentinian government listed 50 lithium projects, with 6pc producing the white metal, 10pc under construction and 14pc in the feasibility phase. The rest were in the initial development stage. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA


12/12/24
12/12/24

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

London, 12 December (Argus) — The recent decision by Opec+ members to delay a planned output increase has "materially reduced" a potential supply surplus next year, the IEA said today. Opec+ producers earlier this month pushed back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. Still, the oil market in 2025 is still likely to be significantly oversupplied, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report (OMR), given persistent overproduction by some Opec+ members, strong supply growth from outside the alliance and modest global oil demand growth. The Paris-based agency's base case forecasts show supply exceeding demand by 950,000 b/d next year, even if all Opec+ cuts remain in place. The supply surplus would increase to 1.4mn b/d if alliance members start increasing output from April as planned, the IEA said. This is far from guaranteed. Opec+ has already delayed its plan to increase output three times and continues to say a decision to unwind will depend on market conditions. While the IEA expects oil demand growth to remain subdued next year, its latest forecasts show a slightly higher outlook than in its previous report . The agency revised up its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 90,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d, largely because of China's recently announced economic stimulus measures. This would see global consumption rise to 103.9mn b/d. But the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 80,000 b/d, to 840,000 b/d, mostly because of "weaker-than-expected non-OECD deliveries in countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia." It said non-OECD oil demand growth in the third quarter, at 320,000 b/d, was the lowest since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The IEA said lacklustre demand growth this year and next reflects "a generally sub-par macroeconomic environment and changing patterns of oil use." Increases will be driven by petrochemical feedstocks, and demand for transport fuels "will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological progress." On supply, the IEA downgraded its growth estimates for 2025 by 110,000 b/d to 1.9mn b/d. Most of this will come from non-Opec+ countries such as the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency nudged lower its supply forecasts for this year, by 10,000 b/d to 630,000 b/d. The IEA said global observed oil stocks declined by 39.3mn bl in October, led by an "exceptionally sharp" fall in oil product inventories due to low refinery activity coupled with higher demand. It said preliminary data show a rebound in global inventories in November. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Syrah declares Mozambique graphite plant force majeure


12/12/24
12/12/24

Syrah declares Mozambique graphite plant force majeure

Singapore, 12 December (Argus) — Sydney-based graphite producer Syrah Resources has declared a force majeure for its Balama operations in Mozambique and defaulted on US government-backed debt, given post-election civil unrest in Mozambique. This came as Syrah is unable to carry out production at Balama throughout October-December to replenish inventory and to sell to customers, because of a protest that had began at the site in late September, forcing a force majeure event. Syrah back in October said the protest is disrupting site access and causing production uncertainty. The firm is one of the few established non-Chinese graphite producers. The protest was originally linked to farmers with "historical farmland resettlement grievances", Syrah said. But it has persisted and worsened after Mozambique's general election in October, which triggered violent protests across the country's major cities given claims of electoral fraud. "The protest actions have been peaceful with no evident actions to deliberately damage property, plant or equipment at Balama," said Syrah. But efforts to reach a positive resolution have been "unsuccessful to date", it added. Syrah is still working on restoring operations "as quick as possible" but has acknowledged that any resolution will be a lengthy process. The Balama site has not been producing graphite since July, according to Syrah, owing to sufficient inventory for sales and low graphite fines demand. Balama produced around 24,000t of natural graphite during the April-June quarter. Syrah has been operating Balama in short "campaign" stints this year owing to insufficient market demand at times. The protest also triggered events of default on its loans with the US International Development Finance (DFC) and the US Department of Energy (DOE), given the "impacts and duration" of the protest. The US DFC pledged its first loan to a graphite operation to Syrah, which amounted to $150mn. Syrah also received a $102mn loan facility with US DOE for the expansion of its Syrah Vidalia anode active material facility in US. Syrah is engaging with US DFC and DOE on its defaults, it said.Australian mining company South32 earlier this month withdrew the production guidance for its Mozal Aluminium smelter in Mozambique because of riots and road blockages. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US road fuel stocks highest since September


11/12/24
11/12/24

US road fuel stocks highest since September

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — US road fuel stocks last week rose to the highest since September, even as demand climbed, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. US gasoline stocks in the week ended 6 December rose to 219.7mn bl, up by 2.4pc from a week earlier and the highest inventory level since the week ended 27 September. Compared with a year earlier, gasoline stocks were down by 1.9pc.. US gasoline product supplied, a proxy for demand, rose for a third consecutive week to 8.81mn b/d, notching a 0.8pc increase on the week, but falling by 0.6pc on the year. Average US retail gasoline prices slipped by 2.6¢/USG to $3.008/USG in the week ended 9 December, the eighth-consecutive weekly drop , according to an earlier EIA report. Weekly EIA demand data is prone to sharp swings, while EIA monthly data, released with a lag, provides a more accurate picture of US demand. The four-week average of combined product supplied and exports was 9.6mn b/d, a 1.8pc decrease from the previous four-week average but up by 0.6pc from the average a year earlier. US gasoline exports last week averaged 1.04mn b/d, growing by 4.5pc from a week earlier but dipping by 8.1pc on the year. Imports fell by 9.2pc on the week to 464,000 b/d and lagged behind year earlier levels by 35pc. Diesel stocks up US ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) stocks increased to 112.9mn bl, up by 3.2mn bl on the week and the highest inventory level since 20 September. ULSD stocks were up by 8.5mn bl from the same week in 2023. Distillate fuel oil product supplied, which includes ULSD and high sulphur fuel oil, rose on the week by 1.5pc to 3.45mn b/d, rebounding from the prior week's decline. Still, this was down by 8.5pc from a year earlier. The implied demand for distillate fuel oil, calculated using the four-week average of combined product supply and exports, stood at 5mn b/d last week. This was down by 1.8pc from the previous week but up by 2.9pc from a year earlier. Exports of US distillate fuel oil dropped on the week by 5.1pc to 1.47mn b/d but rose by 22pc from the same week last year. ULSD imports rose by 33pc to 154,000 b/d, the highest imports since 1 November, but decreased by 25pc from a year earlier. US jet fuel stockpiles increased to 41.9mn bl, up by 0.6pc from the previous week and up by 14pc from the same week in 2023. Increased jet fuel stocks come as US airline passenger traffic declined last week from a three-month high , falling by 0.2pc to 17.3mn passengers, according to Transportation Security Administration data. Refinery runs fall US gross refinery crude inputs dropped last week by 0.9pc to 16.9mn b/d, easing from a three-month high, but inputs were up by 2.8pc from the same week in 2023. Refinery utilization rates declined on the week by 0.9 percentage points to 92.4pc. Still, this refinery rates were up by 2.2 points compared to a year earlier. By Zach Appel and Hunter Fite EIA weekly refined products data Stocks mn bl 6-Dec 29-Nov ±% Year ago ±% Gasoline 219.7 214.6 2.4% 224.0 -1.9% Jet 41.9 41.7 0.6% 36.8 13.7% Distillate fuel 121.3 118.1 2.7% 113.5 6.9% -- ultra low-sulphur (<= 15ppm sulphur) 112.9 109.7 2.9% 104.4 8.1% Imports '000 b/d Total products 1,546 1,479 4.5% 1,976 -21.8% Gasoline 464 511 -9.2% 715 -35.1% Jet 160 75 113.3% 84 90.5% Distillate fuel 154 116 32.8% 205 -24.9% Exports '000 b/d Total products 6,906 7,542 -8.4% 6,553 5.4% Gasoline 1,039 994 4.5% 1,131 -8.1% Jet 219 381 -42.5% 183 19.7% Distillate fuel 1,471 1,550 -5.1% 1,208 21.8% Refinery usage Refinery inputs '000 b/d 16,933 17,094 -0.9% 16,476 2.8% Refinery utilisation % 92.4 93.3 -1.0% 90.2 2.4% Products supplied '000 b/d Total products 20,158 19,968 1.0% 21,079 -4.4% Gasoline 8,810 8,738 0.8% 8,859 -0.6% Jet 1,841 1,610 14.3% 1,871 -1.6% Distillate fuel 3,450 3,398 1.5% 3,770 -8.5% — US Energy Information Administration Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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