Crude futures shrug off Middle East turmoil

Spanish Market: Crude oil
15/04/24

Crude oil futures were largely unmoved in early trading in Asia on 15 April, as the market watched for an indication of how Israel would respond to the weekend's unprecedented attack by Iran.

Front-month June Brent crude futures rose by 0.7pc to a high of $91.05/bl soon after markets opened, but then fell back to trade 0.2pc lower at $90.26/bl at 10.40am Singapore time (02:40 GMT). May Nymex WTI was down by 0.3pc at $85.37/bl. The threat of an Iranian attack on Israel had sent prices higher last week.

Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel on the evening of 13 April, ushering in a new phase in a six-month conflict that is threatening regional escalation. Almost all were intercepted before they reached Israeli airspace, according to the Israel Defence Forces.

Iran, the US and regional powers appear to want to avoid any further increase in hostilities. Tehran's foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Iran considers its operation to have ended. And the US is urging Israel to claim victory for its defence, in an apparent effort to discourage Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government from feeling compelled to retaliate.

Israel's response is unclear. The country's war cabinet is meeting to discuss its next steps.

Regional shipping also continues to face the risk of disruption. On 13 April, Iranian naval vessels seized the Portuguese flagged, British-owned MSC Aries container ship transiting through the Gulf of Oman.

By Kevin Foster

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

15/01/25

Inpex wins Norwegian offshore exploration licences

Tokyo, 15 January (Argus) — Japanese upstream firm Inpex has won eight oil and gas exploration permits offshore Norway, expanding its operations in the country, Inpex said today. Inpex was awarded exploration licences PL1263, PL318D, PL1264, PL1257, and PL636D located between the northern North Sea and the southern Norwegian Sea, along with PL 1276, PL1274 and PL1194C in the northern Norwegian Sea through its local subsidiary Inpex Idemitsu Norge (IIN). The successful bid was part of the awards in the pre-defined areas (APA) 2024 licensing round . IIN secured five licenses in the 2023 APA round . The APA rounds are held every year and focus on mature areas of the Norwegian continental shelf. The aim is to facilitate the discovery and production of remaining oil and gas resources in these areas before existing infrastructure is shut down. In the latest round, 33 of the licences are in the North Sea, 19 in the Norwegian Sea and one in the Barents Sea. The latest licences will contribute to expanding its Norwegian business portfolio, Inpex said, given the potential of jointly developing the new assets with existing assets in the surrounding area. The company has continued stable production at the Snorre and Fram oil fields in the northern North Sea. The Japanese firm aims to strengthen its upstream business as part of its long-term strategy, while it invests in renewable energy such as green ammonia. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA warns of supply squeeze from Russia, Iran sanctions

15/01/25

IEA warns of supply squeeze from Russia, Iran sanctions

London, 15 January (Argus) — The IEA sees a slightly tighter oil market this year than it previously forecast and said new US sanctions on Russia and Iran could further squeeze balances. The outgoing administration of US President Joe Biden announced additional sanctions on Russia's energy exports earlier this month, and moved to tighten sanctions on Iran's oil exports in December. "We maintain our supply forecasts for both countries until the full impact of sanctions becomes more apparent, but the new measures could result in a tightening of crude and product balances," the IEA said today in its latest monthly Oil Market Report (OMR). But the effect of incoming US President Donald Trump on Russian and Iranian supply remains a key variable. As things stand, the IEA projects a 720,000 b/d supply surplus this year — showing a well cushioned oil market. This is around 230,000 b/d less than its previous forecast. For 2024, the IEA's balances show a small supply surplus of 20,000 b/d. The Paris-based agency sees global oil supply growing by 1.8mn b/d to 104.7mn b/d in 2025, compared to growth of 1.9mn b/d in its December report. Almost all of the 2025 growth — 1.5mn b/d — will come from non-Opec+ countries such as US, Brazil, Guyana, Canada and Argentina. The IEA continues to assume all current Opec+ cuts will remain in place this year, although the alliance plans to start increasing output from April. The IEA said global oil supply grew by 650,000 b/d in 2024. The agency sees global oil demand growing by 1.05mn b/d, down by 30,000 b/d from its December forecast. This should see oil demand reach 104.0mn b/d, with most of the gains driven by "a gradually improving economic outlook for developed economies, while lower oil prices will also incentivise consumption." China, which has long driven global oil demand growth but whose economy is now slowing, will add 220,000 b/d in 2025, compared with 180,000 b/d in 2024 and 1.35mn b/d in 2023. But the IEA revised up its oil demand growth estimates for 2024 by 90,000 b/d to 940,000 b/d. This was mostly due to better-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter, which at 1.5mn b/d was highest since the same period in 2023 and 260,000 b/d above than its previous forecast. This increase was mostly due to lower fuel prices, colder weather and abundant petrochemical feedstocks, the IEA said. The IEA said global observed oil stocks increased by 12.2mn bl in November, with higher crude stocks on land and water offsetting refined product draws. It said preliminary data show a further stock build in December. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada's tariff response may be ‘unprecedented’: Ford

14/01/25

Canada's tariff response may be ‘unprecedented’: Ford

Calgary, 14 January (Argus) — Tariffs threatened by president-elect Donald Trump against Canada will hurt the province of Ontario the most, the premier of the country's most populated province said this week, so all options must be considered should retaliation be required. "We have to use all the tools possible," said Ontario premier Doug Ford in 13 January press conference, less than one week before Trump's inauguration and the potential imposition of 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. "We might have to do things that are unprecedented," which could include withholding shipments of minerals, Ford said. Ontario accounts for about 40pc of Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) and is known for its manufacturing, automotive and critical mineral industries. Ford's position runs in contrast to comments made earlier by Alberta premier Danielle Smith that cutting off Canadian energy flows to the US is a non-starter and would not happen . "Well, that's Danielle Smith, she's speaking for Alberta, she's not speaking for the country," Ford said. "I'm speaking for Ontario, that's going to get hurt a lot more. They aren't going to go after the oil, they're coming after Ontario." "I want to ship him more critical minerals, I want to ship him more energy, but make no mistake about it, if they're coming full-tilt at us I won't hesitate to pull out every single tool we have until they can feel the pain," Ford said. "But that's the last thing I want to do." Smith met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida over the weekend, which was a welcome move by Ford, who said he has been working the phones calling American politicians daily. Even so, Canada's response needs to come from the federal government, which has so far been lacking, in Ford's view. "This is their jurisdiction," said Ford. "They need to come up with a strong plan. They need to be doing everything, every single day to make sure we avoid these tariffs." Premiers will meet with prime minister Justin Trudeau this week to strategize how to deal with potential tariffs. Trudeau said last week he planned to resign amid low polls and party infighting with a new leader to be chosen on 9 March. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariffs on Canada likely, oil cut-off not: Alberta

13/01/25

US tariffs on Canada likely, oil cut-off not: Alberta

Calgary, 13 January (Argus) — Tariffs threatened by the US against Canada will become a reality, according to the premier of oil-rich Alberta , but any retaliation will not entail cutting off energy exports. "They're likely to come in on January 20th," Alberta premier Danielle Smith said of the tariffs on Monday after she met with US president-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida over the weekend. "I haven't seen anything that suggests that he's changing course." Trump in late-November said he plans to impose a 25pc tariff against all imports from Canada, citing inadequate border controls and a US trade deficit. Canada has since pledged to spend more money on border security while Smith reckons Canada would have a deficit if not for energy trade. "We actually buy more goods and services from the US than they buy from us," Smith said in an online interview with reporters. "We actually have $58bn in a trade deficit with the Americans when you take energy out." Smith wanted assurances the US is still interested in buying Canadian oil and gas, with her province being the heart of the country's energy sector. "Oil and gas is going to be key for being able to get a breakthrough, once the tariffs do come in, in getting them off," said Smith. Canadian foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly said in a 12 January interview broadcast on CTV that the country could consider stopping the flow of Canadian energy in retaliation to tariffs. But Smith said that would not happen since the oil are owned by the province, not the federal government. "[The federal government] will have a national unity crisis on their hands at the same time as having a crisis with our US trade partners," said Smith. About 80pc of Canada's 5mn b/d of crude production is consumed by refineries in the US, with many in the Midcontinent having no practical alternative , according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). The region imported 2.7mn b/d of Canadian crude in October, the latest data point from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). "I hope cooler heads prevail," said Smith, adding that Trump seemed interested in buying more oil and gas. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November

13/01/25

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November

Mexico City, 13 January (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production edged up 0.1pc in November, as gains in autos and other manufacturing offset weaker construction, national statistics agency Inegi said. Mexican bank Banorte described the monthly increase as "rather small," noting it followed a 1.1pc decline in October and was largely driven by base comparison effects. The bank added that the overall industrial outlook remained "fragile." Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), increased by 0.7pc in November, though it failed to fully recover from a 1.7pc drop in October. Transportation manufacturing, a key subsector accounting for 12pc of the sector, rose by 3.8pc after a steep 4.3pc decline the prior month. Despite recent volatility, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production in 2024, reaching 3.99mn units. Yet, automaker association AMIA warned of potential challenges in 2025 because of economic uncertainty, which could affect investment and demand. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, increased by 0.1pc in November following a 1.1pc decline in October. Growth was driven by a 41.4pc jump in mining-related services, while oil and gas output fell by 2.4pc, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 1.8pc in November after modest gains of 0.2pc in October and 1.1pc in September. As industry eyes potential policy shifts under US president-elect Donald Trump, Banorte projected a weak start to 2025 for Mexico's industrial output. But it expects momentum to build as government spending on priority infrastructure projects "moves more decisively." By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more