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Vancouver Aframax rates at 6-month lows ahead of TMX

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Freight
  • 23/04/24

An oversupply of Aframax-size crude tankers on the west coast of the Americas in anticipation of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pressured Vancouver-loading rates to six-month lows on 19 April.

With the 590,000 b/d TMX project expected to commence commercial service on 1 May, shipowners have positioned more vessels to be on the west coast to satisfy anticipated demand in Vancouver, but that demand has yet to materialize, leaving the Aframax market oversupplied for now, market participants said.

Aframax rates from Vancouver to the US west coast began falling in mid-to-late March as an increase of ballasters added to tonnage in the region, helping drop the rate to ship 80,000t of Cold Lake on that route to $1.50/bl on 19 April from $2.55/bl on 21 March, according to Argus data. The rate held at $1.50/bl on 22 April, the lowest since 2 October and just 3¢/bl higher than the lowest rate since Argus began assessing the route on 21 April 2023.

Similarly, the Vancouver-China Aframax rate also fell to a six-month low of $6.59/bl for Cold Lake on 19 April, down from $7.78/bl on 2 April, according to Argus data.

In addition to the ballasters, two Aframaxes — the Jag Lokesh and the New Activity — are hauling Argentinian crude to the US west coast and are expected to begin discharging on 3 and 6 May, respectively, according to Vortexa. The Argentinian port of Puerto Rosales is mostly restricted to Panamaxes but can accommodate smaller Aframaxes.

Downward pressure from across canal

A recent slump in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Aframax market, due in part to falling Mexican crude exports to the US Gulf coast, has exerted additional downward pressure, a shipowner said.

"Though markets at each side of the (Panama) Canal are different, softer sentiment looms in the region," the shipowner said.

Last week, a charterer hired two Aframaxes for west coast Panama-US west coast voyages, the first at WS102.5 and the second at WS95, equivalent to $12.71/t and $11.78/t, respectively, as multiple shipowners competed for the cargoes.

The Vancouver Aframax market typically draws from the same pool of vessels as the west coast Panama market. For example, the Yokosuka Spirit, one of the Aframaxes hired to load in west coast Panama, discharged a Cold Lake cargo in Los Angeles on 21-22 April after loading in Vancouver in mid-March, according to Vortexa and market participants.


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09/01/25

Venezuela opposition leader held, Gonzalez warned

Venezuela opposition leader held, Gonzalez warned

Caracas, 9 January (Argus) — Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was detained for several hours today after leaving a rally to protest President Nicolas Maduro's disputed swearing-in on Friday, her allies said. Machado and her party members hold that their candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won a July presidential election, a claim supported by the US and many Latin American and other countries. The US kept in place broad sanctions against Venezuela's crude and energy industry in the wake of the contested election. Multiple black SUVs intercepted Machado while she traveled on motorcycle after the rally and forcibly took her while drones circled overhead, her allies confirmed. She was later released, they said, but she had not made a public appearance as of late Thursday afternoon. The Maduro government did not confirm Machado's detention. US representative Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Florida) vowed a response. "Our message to the Maduro regime is clear: If you attack Maria Corina Machado, we, the United States, will attack you", Salazar posted on social media. Venezuelan interior minister Diosdado Cabello has in turn threatened to "neutralize" any aircraft in national airspace carrying Gonzalez, who has said he will try to enter Venezuela on Friday to take the oath of office instead of Maduro. Gonzalez has been visiting multiple leaders in the region in the run-up to Maduro's ceremony, meeting with US president Joe Biden and president-elect Donald Trump's designated White House national security adviser Mike Waltz in Washington earlier this week. He has most recently visited the Dominican Republic and met with President Luis Abinader and other dignitaries there. Sources in Caracas say low turnout at pro-Maduro counter demonstrations today may have triggered the decision to arrest Machado. Trump's advisers have not disclosed whether they plan to tighten the US' sanctions against Venezuela, including whether they would remove exemptions allowing Chevron, Eni and Repsol to lift cargoes of oil produced in their joint ventures with state-owned PdV. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jim Risch (R-Idaho) unveiled a bill today that would condition a future removal of sanctions against Venezuela on the establishment of a democratically elected government in Caracas. But the bill, which enjoys backing of key Democrats on his committee, does not directly address Chevron's upstream exemption. By Carlos Camacho and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low


09/01/25
09/01/25

Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low

Mexico City, 9 January (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 4.21pc in December, the lowest in nearly four years, as slowing agricultural prices offset increases in energy, consumer goods and services. This marks the lowest annual inflation since February 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. Inflation slowed from 4.55pc in November, marking four months of declines in the past five months. It closed 2024 below the December 2023 reading of 4.66pc, as CPI continues to cool from its peak of 8.7pc in August/September 2022at the height of the global inflation crisis. The December headline rate slightly exceeded Mexican bank Banorte's 4.15pc forecast but aligned with its consensus estimate. Following the results, Banorte revised its end-2025 inflation projection to 4pc from 4.4pc and its core inflation estimate to 3.6pc from 3.7pc. The bank suggested that the data supports the possibility of earlier cuts in 2025 in the central bank's target rate, currently at 10pc. Citi Mexico's January survey of 32 analysts estimated a target rate of 8.50pc by the end of 2025, with the next cut of 25 basis points expected at the next central bank policy meeting on 25 February. The central bank is targeting annual CPI of 2-4pc. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.65pc in December from 3.58pc in November, marking the first uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration, according to Mexico's statistics agency (Inegi). Services inflation sped up to 4.94pc from 4.9pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.47pc from 2.4pc. Agricultural inflation moved to 6.57pc from 10.74pc in November, supported by favorable weather conditions. Banorte noted that the developing La Nina phenomenon could significantly impact meat prices in the coming months. Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 5.73pc in December from 5.25pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. The industrial association Coparmex called for a review of Mexico's LPG pricing model, citing risks to supply and distribution. Electricity inflation decelerated sharply to 2.65pc from 22pc in November, reflecting the end of seasonal summer subsidies, while natural gas prices fell 5.67pc year over year. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CHS grows STL capacity with new terminal deal


08/01/25
08/01/25

CHS grows STL capacity with new terminal deal

Houston, 8 January (Argus) — US agribusiness CHS will increase its fertilizer product delivery capacity to farmers after securing an exclusive deal with an Ingram Barge subsidiary at its St Louis, Missouri, terminal ahead of this spring. Ingram Barge subsidiary SCF Lewis and Clark Terminals will only move CHS product at its Municipal River Terminal in St Louis, allowing CHS access to more rail and barge shipments for distribution. "This new pathway improves the efficiency and flexibility in our supply chain, so our farmers can have access to needed inputs, particularly during the busy growing season," CHS crop nutrients vice president Roger Baker said. The CHS supply chain includes imports and the domestic distribution of nitrogen, phosphate, potassium and sulfur fertilizers. CHS is a global agribusiness with a portfolio that includes agronomy, grains and energy businesses that reached a revenue of $39bn for fiscal year 2024. Ingram Barge Company operates a fleet of 150 towboats and 5,100 barges that transports commodities across the US river system. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Strike at Port of Brisbane disrupts urea shipment


08/01/25
08/01/25

Strike at Port of Brisbane disrupts urea shipment

Sydney, 8 January (Argus) — Port operator Qube workers at Australia's Port of Brisbane have started a week-long strike today, which has likely already held up a urea shipment. The work stoppage will affect break-bulk operations, slowing the flow of commodities like fertilizers, steel and vehicles. This comes as a months-long dispute with the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) drags on across several key ports. The 42,493 deadweight tonne (dwt) Es Dignity , loaded with 32,559t of urea from Qatar, arrived near Brisbane on 7 January, according to trade analytics firm Kpler. This means the ship is unlikely to discharge on 8 January and will be delayed, according to market participants. The vessel previously discharged 8,397t of urea into Townsville on 2 January. Urea is a key fertilizer imported into Australia, and vessels carrying urea typically make multi-port discharges when making deliveries into Australia. The 37,657dwt Tientsin delivered 10,000t of urea into Brisbane on 22 December 2024, after making two 10,000t deliveries into Portland and Newcastle earlier that month. A urea supplier last offered granular urea at around A$760/t ($474/t) fca Brisbane this week. Urea prices in Australia have climbed rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of higher international fob levels in the Middle East and as a weaker Australian dollar made imports more expensive. Argus last assessed granular urea prices fca Geelong in Victoria at A$740-750/t (see graph) , but market participants indicated prices are now higher. But Australian demand for urea is currently low, so the delayed vessel is currently unlikely to impact local supply-demand dynamics significantly. A trader that regularly supplies Brisbane with urea cargoes expects the strikes to persist until at least March, when demand will have picked up and delays will have a larger impact. Port Kembla Qube and MUA have been negotiating an employment agreement since the middle of last year, prompting months of industrial action across the company's Australian ports. The Brisbane work stoppages come alongside an ongoing two-week work stoppage at Qube's facilities at Port Kembla, in New South Wales, which also affected break-bulk operations. "The [MUA's] industrial action has effectively stopped Qube's port operations at Port Kembla and forced our customers to make alternative stevedoring arrangements," a company representative told Argus at the start of the Port Kembla strike. The strikes at Port Kembla have had no impact on fertilizer deliveries so far, with GTT data showing no urea or phosphate deliveries made into the port in January or February in recent years. By Avinash Govind and Tom Woodlock Granular urea prices fca Geelong (A$/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump wants policy of 'no windmills' being built


07/01/25
07/01/25

Trump wants policy of 'no windmills' being built

Washington, 7 January (Argus) — President-elect Donald Trump wants to pursue a policy to stop the construction of wind turbines, a move that could limit the growth of a resource projected to soon overtake coal and nuclear as the largest source of power in the the US. Trump has spent years attacking the development of wind, which accounted for 10pc of electricity production in the US in 2023, often by citing misleading complaints about its cost, harm to wildlife and health threats. In a press conference today, Trump reiterated some of those concerns and said he wants the government to halt new development. "It's the most expensive energy there is. It's many, many times more expensive than clean natural gas," Trump said. "So we're going to try and have a policy where no windmills are being built." The US is on track to add more than 90GW of wind capacity by 2028, a nearly 60pc increase compared to 2024, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in latest Annual Energy Outlook report. If that growth materializes, wind will become the second largest source of electricity in the US at the end of of Trump's term, overtaking coal and nuclear in 2027 and 2028, respectively, according to the EIA forecast. Trump did not offer specifics on the policy, which he did not run on during his campaign. But the vast majority of wind capacity in the US is built on private land such as farms — largely in rural districts represented by Republicans — limiting the federal government's role. Trump could still threaten wind development by blocking projects on federal land, such as offshore wind projects, and working to repeal federal tax credits that subsidize wind. Democratic lawmakers said blocking wind development will raise costs for consumers and reduce energy production. "Trump is against wind energy because he doesn't understand our country's energy needs and dislikes the sight of turbines near his private country clubs," said US Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Oregon), who helped expand federal tax credits for wind through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Wind energy industry officials also raised concerns with the policy, which they said conflicted with an all-of-the-above energy strategy. "American presidents shouldn't be taking American resources away from the American people," American Clean Power chief executive Jason Grumet said. 'Gulf of America' Trump today separately reiterated his vow to "immediately" reverse Biden's withdrawal of more than 625mn acres of waters for offshore drilling, and also said he would rename the Gulf of Mexico as the "Gulf of America", which he said was a "beautiful name". In addition to expanding oil and gas production offshore, Trump said he will seek to drill in "a lot of other locations" as a way to lower prices. "The energy costs are going to come way down," Trump said. "They'll be brought down to a very low level, and that's going to bring everything else down." US consumers paid an average of $3.02/USG for regular grade gasoline in December, the lowest monthly price in more than three years. Henry Hub spot natural gas prices dropped to $2.19/mmBtu in 2024, the lowest price in four years. During his campaign, Trump said he would cut the price of energy in half within 12 months of taking office. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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