Barge delays at Algiers lock near New Orleans

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Chemicals, Coal, Coking coal, Crude oil, Metals, Petroleum coke
24/04/24

Barges are facing lengthy delays at the Algiers lock near New Orleans as vessels reroute around closures at the Port Allen lock and the Algiers Canal.

Delays at the Algiers Lock —at the interconnection of the Mississippi River and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway— have reached around 37 hours in the past day, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers' lock report. Around 50 vessels are waiting to cross the Algiers lock.

Another 70 vessels were waiting at the nearby Harvey lock with a six-hour wait in the past day.

The closure at Port Allen lock has spurred the delays, causing vessels to reroute through the Algiers lock. The Port Allen lock is expected to reopen on 28 April, which should relieve pressure on the Algiers lock.

Some traffic has been rerouted through the nearby Harvey lock since the Algiers Canal was closed by a collapsed powerline, the US Coast Guard said. The powerline fell on two barges, but no injuries or damages were reported. The wire is being removed by energy company Entergy.

The canal is anticipated to reopen at midnight on 25 April.

By Meghan Yoyotte

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27/12/24

Viewpoint: Brazil urea deals for corn delayed to 2025

Sao Paulo, 27 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to enter 2025 with a last-minute surge in demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, as farmers continue to postpone purchases for the 2024-25 second corn crop. Around 10-15pc of all fertilizer needs have yet to be purchased for the corn crop, whose planting is expected to start by February in central-western Mato Grosso state. Brazilian farmers have been delaying agreements for inputs as they wait for lower fertilizer prices and higher grain prices. The most delayed fertilizer acquisition is urea, with buyers expecting further price drops before committing to volumes. Granular urea prices were at $359/metric tonnes (t) cfr Brazil by 19 December, $39/t above the same period in 2023. The overall pace of input purchases is in line with farmers' buying patterns for the 2023-24 corn crop and 2024-25 soybean crop, when growers also waited until the last minute to secure final volumes. Traditional 4Q buying surged delayed Brazilian buyers used to speed up the pace of fertilizer purchases in the fourth quarter to supply the second corn crop. This would give them time to receive the inputs in time for application, without last-minute logistic concerns. But unexpected changes in fertilizer price trends, combined with changes in the timing of the soybean crop, led farmers to change this buying pattern and wait as long as possible before concluding deals. Farmers' saw this last-minute buying strategy rewarded in early 2024 when urea prices were about $393/t cfr Brazil, below levels seen earlier in October 2023. And a delay in the 2024-25 soybean planting because of unfavorable weather conditions also contributed to postponed fertilizer acquisitions for corn, since the soybean harvest would likely be delayed and force farmers to plant corn outside the ideal period. Those factors are set to again push final urea purchases to January. Some volumes traded in November-December may discharge in ports in January, intensifying deliveries in the first months of the year. Brazil imported 7.6mn t of urea in January-November, 19pc above the same period in 2023. The latest lineup data from 26 December points to around 400,000t to be delivered at ports in December and 422,000t in January, according to maritime agency Unimar. Farmers focused on acquiring ammonium sulphate (amsul) volumes in the past three months, as prices carried a discount considering the nitrogen content compared with urea while also adding sulphur. There is plenty of available compacted/granular amsul, with Chinese producers eyeing Brazil as an outlet for the product. Imports of amsul totaled 5.1mn t in the first 11 months of the year, 18pc above the same period last year. A total of 596,000t and 1.2mn t were set to discharge in ports in December and January, respectively, according to Unimar's lineup data from 26 December. The trend is the same in the domestic market, with purchases advancing slowly. Some cooperatives and retailers bought volumes to guarantee availability when farmers decide to buy. Farmers are most advanced in theirs potash (MOP) acquisitions, as its lower-than-usual price has motivated farmers to buy the fertilizer for 2025-26 corn and soybeans. Market participants estimate that around 50pc of MOP needs in Mato Grosso for the 2025-26 soybean crop were purchased by early December. Demand has been high for the first quarter of 2025, leading to expectations of intense MOP deliveries at ports. This would mean a high flow in the inland market, competing with urea volumes handling in January-February. By Gisele Augusto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US stainless recovery expected in 1H

27/12/24

Viewpoint: US stainless recovery expected in 1H

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — US finished and scrap stainless steel market participants are cautiously optimistic for 2025 because of low inventories, waning imports and expected policy changes when president-elect Donald Trump takes office in January. The stainless steel market expects a challenging early start to 2025 before a rebound later in the first half of the year, as renewed demand from the oil and natural gas sector combines with low inventories and potential Trump policies. US stainless meltshop production in the first half of 2024 totaled just over 1mn metric tonnes (t), up from the atypically low 2023 levels of roughly 940,000t, according to data from World Stainless. These figures are well below prior years with the US averaging about 1.18mn t in the first half of 2021 and 2022. The market has struggled to hit its full stride in 2024 as consistent finished imports and falling nickel prices undercut the market. Flat rolled coil ex works US prices for 304 declined to $1.60-1.77/lb for December shipments, compared with $1.68-1.86/lb a year earlier. Still, this trend could soon stabilize and begin to reverse. Sources estimate US service center finished stainless steel inventory levels for both flat rolled and long bar products are at lows last seen in 2021, a time when US demand was still crimped from the Covid-19 pandemic. Service centers have kept unusually low inventories because of a mix of moderate demand and higher-than-usual interest rates raising end-of-year accounting costs. Weaker service center demand has subsequently capped scrap generation, limiting how low US mills can push their raw material costs for new scrap. Average US stainless steel scrap 304 solids prices have held within a tight 2¢/lb spread of 56.5-58.5¢/lb since early August as falling generation rates ran up against lower demand. The incoming Republican administration has fostered an atmosphere of optimism among market sources, who expect Trump policies will support the domestic industry by cutting oil and gas permitting restrictions, shifting US spending away from overseas investments and broader deregulation of American businesses. Trump has also proposed a myriad of tariffs, including specifically targeting China and the US' largest trading partners — Canada and Mexico. US imports of flat rolled stainless of any size climbed by 22pc to 404,000t in 2024 so far, according to US customs data. Mexico contributed roughly 7pc of these volumes, while Indonesia — home to multiple Chinese stainless mills — contributed 8pc of US imports. By raising import costs, US producers could in theory make up some of this difference. Stainless producers will likely have to raise prices as a result of tariffs, following a year with far fewer base prices adjustments. Long producer Universal Stainless raised base prices only once in 2024 compared to five times in 2023. Nickel-scrap disconnect widens US mills have offset the persistent weak demand by tweaking the nickel payable — the percentage of the price of nickel they are willing to pay for nickel recovered from scrap — each month since April. The nickel payable rate reached a historic low of 42-43pc in 2023, before rebounding. Although up from historic lows, nickel payable has decreased from 57-59pc in March of this year to 50-54pc for procurements in November. At these lower levels scrap is more disconnected from the movements in the nickel market. Some market participants still remain concerned, chiefly over slowing growth in China, which consumes nearly 50pc of the world's nickel. China has ramped up production of nickel largely in Indonesia in recent years to service the growing electric vehicle market. Market conditions in Europe also continue to undercut demand. Spanish stainless producer and owner of US-based North American Stainless, Acerinox, highlighted in its third quarter results that the European manufacturing sector is undergoing a "drastic contraction". It added that while destocking efforts were completed at the time, demand remained weak. By Pete J Stavretis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Indian FeCr to face pressure in 1Q 2025

27/12/24

Viewpoint: Indian FeCr to face pressure in 1Q 2025

Mumbai, 27 December (Argus) — India's ferro-chrome market is expected to remain under pressure in the first quarter because of muted spot demand as a result of sluggish stainless steel consumption. Producers will likely keep ferro-chrome output low in the coming months. The market is widely expected to remain sluggish until after the lunar new year holiday in February. There is little to no optimism that spot liquidity and supplier profit margins will increase in the short term, because demand from the stainless steel industry is weak. Prices for Indian high-carbon ferro-chrome 60pc fluctuated significantly in 2024. Prices hit a high of 120,000-121,000 rupees/t ($1,400-1,415/t) ex-works on 21 February, bolstered by tight ore availability and rising feedstock costs. But weak demand for stainless steel, both locally and globally, kept many market participants on the sidelines, causing prices to fall sharply in April-August, reaching Rs102,000-104,000/t ex-works on 20 August. Prices have since remained around this level, with the Argus assessment on 12 December at Rs104,000-106,000/t. Low demand from the stainless steel sector has effectively removed any possibility of a price recovery in the near term. Spot liquidity has been markedly lower than normal and a rebound is not expected. Volumes signed on long-term contracts for delivery in 2025 have also taken a dip and are at around 70-80pc of the volumes signed in 2023 for 2024 delivery. Weaker ferro-chrome demand and prices have led to lower production. India's ferro-chrome output declined from 1.3mn-1.4mn t in 2023 to an estimated 1.2mn t in 2024, and monthly consumption in the country is estimated to have decreased from 30,000-35,000t to 20,000-25,000t. Consumption is unlikely to rebound significantly until global and local stainless steel demand recovers. Suppliers typically turn to the export market when there is a supply surplus, with exports from India typically accounting for around 50pc of the country's output. But India's ferro-chrome exports are also falling. Shipments declined by 38pc year on year to 402,817t in January-September, compared with 648,475t over the same period a year earlier. Macroeconomic headwinds have dented global demand for stainless steel, and in turn ferro-chrome. European and Chinese demand was high in the first half of 2024 but has slowed significantly since then, with European buyers shifting their focus towards cheaper Kazakh material. Increased freight rates, port congestion and higher production costs have further weighed on exports. In addition, China has increased production and its domestic output now exceeds domestic consumption. This has weighed on domestic prices since August and increased supply in the export market. The market is unlikely to pick up until ferro-chrome inventories at China's port are consumed, a source told Argus . Decreasing demand and prices have made some suppliers' margins negative, forcing some to cut output by 50-60pc and others to shift their focus to producing manganese alloys, which offer stronger margins despite higher production costs. The cost of production for high-carbon ferro-chrome in India is around Rs116,000-119,000/t ex-works. Only producers with their own captive chrome ore mines are making a profit at present, sources said. Indian ferro-chrome suppliers also face issues with deteriorating chrome ore grade, which has led to increased production costs and lower-quality ferro-chrome output. The deterioration in ore quality is particularly evident in state-owned Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) auctions — the premium for OMC's 50-52pc ore over its 48-49.99pc ore rose to above Rs1,000/t in early December. The higher premiums for high-grade ore, coupled with the drop in demand, have limited ferro-chrome producers' appetite to participate in OMC's auctions, as supply of high-grade ore is limited and only available at high premiums while low-grade ore is unfavourable as its consumption raises production costs. A lack of interest in OMC's monthly tender boosted this bearish sentiment and created further downward pressure on India's ferro-chrome prices. By Deepika Singh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: SE Asian IMO2 MRs to rise on EU policy

27/12/24

Viewpoint: SE Asian IMO2 MRs to rise on EU policy

London, 27 December (Argus) — Rates for specialised Medium Range (MR) tankers in southeast Asia will be driven up in 2025 by changes in EU policy on deforestation, higher biofuels blending mandates, and new mandates in the aviation sector, all of which will support exports of biodiesels, feedstocks and palm oil. Demand for specialised MRs in southeast Asia is ruled by exports of palm oil to Europe and the US Gulf coast. Palm oil does not usually need to travel on IMO2 ships and can be moved on IMO3 vessels. But it is often moved as a part-cargo of between 5,000-15,000t so is often picked up by IMO2 or IMO2/3 vessels, which are more suitable as they have a higher number of segregated tanks. Kpler data show around 6.3mn t of palm oil was exported from Indonesia and Malaysia to the US Gulf and Europe in the January-November 2024 period. Palm oil deliveries from southeast Asia have been trending lower since 2020 with the product becoming less popular in Europe because of deforestation issues. On 4 December, an agreement was reached between the European Council and the European Parliament to delay the application of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by one year. This means larger companies will not be required to prove that their products, such as palm oil, did not contribute to deforestation until 30 December 2025. This has averted a potential rapid loss in palm oil exports to Europe in 2025 but there will probably be a substantial decline in exports later in the year as businesses prepare for the EUDR. In the short term, the decision to postpone the EUDR will probably boost cargo numbers heading to Europe as traders had been holding off for clear regulatory guidance. This will support freight rates for IMO2 MRs in the new year by pulling more IMO2/3s and IMO3s away from the market and by increasing the number of part cargoes available for IMO2s. Feedstock exports ramp up Indonesia and Malaysia also export many specialised products that require IMO2s, such as waste based feedstocks palm oil mill effluent (POME), palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) and used cooking oil (UCO), as well as finished biodiesels like Ucome. Kpler puts exports of these products to Europe at around 2.8mn t in the first 11 months of 2024, with POME cargoes making up 42pc of all shipments or around 1.2mn t. POME was included in Annex IX Part A of the EU's renewable energy directive (RED), meaning member states can count it twice towards their renewable energy goals. Exports of feedstocks and biodiesels to Europe will probably rise in 2025 as blending mandates rise and because of a reduction in the carryover of emissions tickets in Germany and the Netherlands. Argus estimates European demand for biodiesel Pomeme to rise by around 36pc on the quarter in first three months of 2025 to around 3.5mn litres. Higher requirements for biofuels and feedstocks in Europe should push up demand for products like POME, PFAD, and UCO from Malaysia and Indonesia and support higher IMO2 demand in southeast Asia. But this could be tempered by an Indonesian ruling to include an export permit for POME and PFAD that requires participants to fulfil their cooking oil domestic market obligation. SAF mandates begin in Europe Exports of HVO and SAF from Singapore to Europe also make up part-cargo demand for IMO2 MRs. Argus forecasts European HVO demand will rise by 85pc on the quarter to 2,582mn l in the first three months of 2025. New 2pc SAF mandates in the EU and UK in 2025 will provide a sizable rise in SAF demand. This should spur a jump in cargoes loading from Singapore — driving up demand for part-cargo space on IMO2 MRs. By Leonard Fisher-Matthews Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US gas market poised for more volatility

26/12/24

Viewpoint: US gas market poised for more volatility

New York, 26 December (Argus) — US natural gas markets may be subjected to more dramatic price swings in 2025 as growing LNG exports and increasingly price-sensitive producers place greater pressure on the US' stagnant gas storage capacity. Those price swings could pose challenges for consumers without ample access to gas supplies, as well as producers interested in keeping some output unhedged to capture potentially higher prices without taking on excessive financial risk. But volatility may also present opportunities for traders looking to exploit unstable price spreads, and for producers that can adapt their operations to fit a more unpredictable pricing environment. Calm before the storm High storage levels and low spot prices this year — averaging $2.11/mmBtu through November this year at the US benchmark Henry Hub — triggered by an unusually warm 2023-24 winter, may have obscured some of the structural factors pushing the US gas market into a more volatile future. But those structural factors remain and loom increasingly large for prices. The US has moved from a roughly 60 Bcf/d (1.7bn m³/d) market eight years ago to a more than 100 Bcf/d market today, "and we haven't grown our storage capacity at all", Rich Brockmeyer, head of North American gas and power at commodity trading house Gunvor, said earlier this year. As supply and demand for US gas grow, the country's roughly 4.7-Tcf storage capacity becomes ever less effective in stemming demand shocks, such as extreme winter weather events, which can more rapidly draw down inventories than in years past. Additionally, a growing share of US gas is being consumed by LNG export terminals being built and expanded on the US Gulf coast. When those facilities encounter unexpected problems and cease operations — as has happened numerous times at the 2 Bcf/d Freeport LNG terminal in Texas in recent years — volumes that were previously being liquefied and sent overseas were instead backed up into the domestic market, crushing prices. More LNG exports may mean more opportunities for such supply shocks. US LNG exports are expected to increase by 15pc to almost 14 Bcf/d in 2025 as operations begin at Venture Global's planned 27.2mn t/yr Plaquemines facility in Louisiana and Cheniere's 11.5mn t/yr Corpus Christi, Texas, stage 3 expansion, US Energy Information Administration data show. Spot price volatility will be most acutely felt in regions like New England that lack underground gas storage. "In areas like the Gulf coast, where you have a lot of storage, it won't be a problem," Alan Armstrong, chief executive of Williams, the largest US gas pipeline company, told Argus in an interview. Producers' trade-off Volatile gas markets are a mixed bag for producers, many of whom profit from volatility while also struggling to plan and budget based on uncertain revenues for unhedged volumes. Though insufficient gas storage deprives the market of stability, "from the standpoint of a marketing and trading guy that's trying to manage my gas supply to customers and my trading book, I love volatility",said Dennis Price, vice president of marketing and trading at Expand Energy, the largest US gas producer by volume. BP chief financial officer Sinead Gorman in November 2023 specifically named Freeport LNG's eight-month-long shutdown in 2022-23 from a fire as a driver of volatility in the global gas market. The supermajor was able to exploit the "incredibly fragile" gas market, she said, which was a key factor driving the success of its integrated gas business. "Those opportunities are what we typically seek and enjoy," Gorman said. Increasingly, producers have also been adapting to a more volatile market by switching production on and off in response to prices, but often without revealing the price at which a supply response will occur. Expand Energy, for instance, told investors in October that it was amassing drilled but uncompleted wells and wells that had yet to be brought on line, which it could activate relatively quickly when prices rise. It declined to name the price at which that would occur. Market participants, attempting to price in this phenomenon by anticipating producers' next moves may respond more dramatically to supply signals than in the past, when production was steadier. Producers' increased responsiveness to prices could help to balance the market somewhat, though more aggressive intervention into operations could take a toll on well performance and pipelines, FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean said. Producers are "treating the reservoir itself like a storage facility", Price said. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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