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Battery storage stands out in Japan clean power auction

  • Spanish Market: Battery materials, Electricity
  • 02/05/24

Japan's first auction for long-term zero emissions power capacity has attracted strong bidding interest with a plan to install battery storage, as investment in the power storage system is gaining momentum in line with expanded use of fluctuating renewable energy sources.

Japan launched the clean power auction system from the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, aiming to spur investment in clean power sources by securing funding for fixed costs in advance to drive the country's decarbonisation by 2050.

The first auction, which was held in January, has awarded 1.1GW capacity for battery storage, or 27pc of total contract capacity for clean power sources, excluding gas-fired generation that has been temporally included in the auction system to help ensure stable power supplies, nationwide transmission system operator Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operator (Occto), which manages the auction, said on 26 April.

Bidding capacity for battery storage totalled around 4.6GW, the highest volume among any other clean power sources. This means the contract ratio for storage batteries was 24pc compared with the 100pc ratio for ammonia co-firing, hydrogen co-firing, biomass dedicated and nuclear capacity, along with gas-fired capacity.

Awarded capacity for battery storage as well as pumping-up electric power facilities reached 1.67GW, exceeding the 1GW sought by the auction.

Japan has secured a total of 9.77GW of net zero capacity through the 2023-24 auction. Contract volumes covered 1.3GW of nuclear, 199MW biomass, 577MW of pumping-up electric power, 770MW for ammonia co-firing and 55.3MW hydrogen co-firing, as well as 1.1GW of battery storage. This also included 5.76GW of gas-fired projects.

All winners under the auction can generally receive the money for 20 years through Occto, which collect money from the country's power retailers, although they need to refund 90pc of other revenue. The first auction saw total funding of ¥233.6bn/yr ($1.51bn) for decarbonisation power sources and ¥176.6bn/yr for gas-fired capacity.

Japan's battery requirements are expected to continue rising, with uncertainty over future nuclear availability likely to spur Tokyo to accelerate the roll-out of renewable energy to meet a 46pc greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030-31 against 2013-14 levels — a target still far above the 23pc recorded in 2022-23. Japan will need to install 38-41GW of renewable capacity, nearly triple actual output of 14GW in 2019.

Japan is looking to establish lithium-ion battery production capacity of 150GWh/yr domestically and 600GWh/yr globally by 2030. The trade and industry ministry projects the latter target will require 380,000 t/yr of lithium, 310,000 t/yr of nickel, 600,000 t/yr of graphite, 60,000 t/yr of cobalt and 50,000 t/yr of manganese.


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Australia’s Cleanaway, LMS to produce landfill gas


20/12/24
20/12/24

Australia’s Cleanaway, LMS to produce landfill gas

Sydney, 20 December (Argus) — Australian waste management operator Cleanaway and bioenergy firm LMS Energy will partner on a 22MW landfill gas-fired power station at Cleanaway's Lucas Heights facility near the city of Sydney. Cleanaway, Australia's largest publicly listed waste management firm, will receive exclusive rights to landfill gas produced at Lucas Heights for 20 years, the company said on 20 December. LMS will invest A$46mn ($29mn) in new bioelectricity assets, including a 22MW generator. Tightening gas markets owing to underinvestment in new supply has led to speculation that more waste-to-energy plants could be brought on line in coming years, especially in the southern regions. Landfill gas projects receive Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) by avoiding methane releases, with the total ACCU quantity calculated after a default baseline of 30pc is deducted for projects beginning after 2015. A total of 42.6mn ACCUs were issued to landfill gas projects since the start of the ACCU scheme in 2011, 27pc of the total 155.7mn and the second-largest volume after human-induced regeneration (HIR) methods at 46.68mn. Canberra is reviewing ACCU issuance for these projects, and wants most projects to directly measure methane levels in captured landfill gas to avoid overestimation. Landfill gas operations which generate electricity from the captured gases can also receive large-scale generation certificates (LGCs). LMS has 70 projects currently registered at the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) and has received 24.57mn ACCUs since the start of the scheme. This is the largest volume for any single project proponent, just ahead of Australian environmental market investor GreenCollar's subsidiary Terra Carbon with 23.57mn units. Cleanaway received almost 1mn ACCUs from two projects and has four other projects that have yet to earn ACCUs. By Tom Major and Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Europe’s EV future rests on Chinese FDI


19/12/24
19/12/24

Viewpoint: Europe’s EV future rests on Chinese FDI

London, 19 December (Argus) — The troubled buildout of Europe's EV supply chain, illustrated by the fall of Northvolt last month, suggests that the future now depends on foreign direct investment (FDI) — particularly from China. While EV sales in China rose by 46pc last month , they edged down by 2.48pc in Europe, and an increasing share is made up of Chinese-branded battery EVs , as western carmakers struggle to offer affordable models. China is now forecast to majority-own 300GWh of Europe's 1.3TWh battery capacity by 2030 ( see graph ). A shortage of skilled labour, fierce competition weighing on prices for feedstock materials and limited state investment — just some of the problems that befell Northvolt — suggest that Chinese FDI might need to increase further for Europe to expand its EV fleets. First, FDI into Europe that localises production of EVs that will eventually be sold to European consumers offers jobs to workers and affords Europe a portion of the value added. It offers a chance for technological ‘spillovers' — expertise on how to build and operate Chinese battery machinery in exchange for access to the largest EV market after China. Europe could also attract Chinese FDI under 50:50 joint ventures (JVs) between Chinese battery makers and domestic carmakers — such as CATL and Stellantis — in order to retain some equity and ensure an integration of local and foreign talent. It is how China developed its own internal combustion engine (Ice) industry, signing JVs with Volkswagen in 1984, Stellantis in 1992, General Motors in 1997 and Toyota in 2000, among others. It is also not clear to what extent China is comfortable with spillovers in exchange for market access. One criticism is that Chinese FDI might focus on EV assembly, although data from consultancy Rhodium Group show not only China's FDI into battery plants but that this has provided anchoring for FDI upstream into cathode and anode plants in Hungary, Sweden and Finland. Asian firms tend to hire talent from their home countries for senior positions without "skills trickling down to the local population", according to clean energy researcher Transport & Environment. Chinese firms could continue to make batteries in China, withholding the expertise that eluded Northvolt, before shipping parts for assembly in Europe. One condition could require a portion of FDI allocated to R&D, involving universities or local think-tanks. "R&D activities are usually not typical features of (Chinese) investments in the V4 [Visegrad] region, as investors usually bring only assembly," economist Agnes Szunomar said in a report on Chinese investments into the V4 in January, although Volvo and Nio have made plans in eastern Europe, Szunomar added. As it has increased, Chinese FDI — both state and private — has also shifted almost entirely away from mergers and acquisitions towards ‘greenfield' investments ( see graph ), i.e. businesses from scratch, suggesting a growing skills imbalance between the regions. European policy must change Europe is not the only target for Chinese EV-related FDI, and might have to increase its incentives if it is to build out homegrown industry. In a "carrot and stick" approach, endorsed by InoBat chairman Andy Palmer, the efficacy of the EU's much-deliberated tariffs as a ‘stick' appears uncertain so far. Analysis from Rhodium Group suggests that the EU's tariffs have disproportionately penalised western-branded EVs made in China and sold in Europe. They have also been too weak to entirely force China's EV production into Europe and yet strong enough to raise investor uncertainty, which could include further hikes on EVs or new tariffs on battery materials, for instance, which would scupper China's plans for FDI in battery assembly. Out of 11 EV plants that China is reported to have considered, just three in Europe have been confirmed ( see graph ) — the lowest share globally of China's investments. Meanwhile, tax breaks, grants and interest-free loans might fulfil the ‘carrot' in the EU's approach, as Hungary has illustrated, with state support for multiple projects, ranging from €2.4mn to €900mn for CATL's $7.3bn battery plant announced in August 2022 — set to create 9,000 jobs — and consequently 61pc of Chinese FDI into Europe last year, according to analysis from Rhodium Group ( see graph ). By Chris Welch Europe gigafactory forecast 2030 GWh Overall Chinese FDI into Europe, by conduit $bn Status of Chinese EV plants by region since 2022 Newly announced Chinese EV-related FDI by host region $bn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Reliability drives New Zealand power mix: Minister


19/12/24
19/12/24

Reliability drives New Zealand power mix: Minister

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — New Zealand's conservative coalition government wants to ensure reliable generation, whether that is from coal, oil, gas, or geothermal resources, the country's resources minister Shane Jones told Argus this week. Jones was also clear about the need to draw a distinction between "the expectations on [a] small, open trading nation like [New Zealand] not to use coal and the major hope[s] and needs of the average New Zealander for affordable power, reliable power." "If [reliable power] comes from coal, that's the mix and the menu for the future," he added. Jones argued that existing renewable power sources cannot exclusively provide for New Zealand's energy needs. He instead suggested that his government is interested in promoting alternative power sources such as oil, gas and geothermal, through investments and policy changes. New Zealand's coal-fired power generation surged between July-September, according to the New Zealand's Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE). Coal rose to 8pc of total generation from 3pc a year earlier, following a drop in hydroelectric power production. The country burned 363,513t of coal over those months, more than tripling its use for power generation purposes compared to the same period last year. Oil, gas Jones has taken steps to boost the country's oil sector since taking office in late 2023, following the coalition's victory over the centre-left Labour party. The minister introduced the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill in June, a piece of legislation that he described as being "aimed at increasing investor confidence in petroleum exploration and development." Jones told Argus that under the previous government, "people who may have been willing to [make] investment[s] and bring patient capital concluded that New Zealand was no longer available as a destination for oil and gas and this has resulted in a diminution in [oil] investment." The Crown Minerals Amendment Bill will overturn a 2018 ban on offshore oil exploration, which was introduced while Jones was serving in an earlier Labour-led coalition government. New Zealand's oil sector increased its annual well spending from NZ$110mn ($63.2mn) in 2018 to NZ$403mn, in the years following the ban in 2018. The total number of active oil permits in the country has plunged from 56 to 37 over the same period, MBIE data show. New Zealand likely houses at least 223.5bn m³ of undiscovered, offshore gas reserves; 249mn bl of undiscovered, offshore oil reserves; and 177mn bl of undiscovered, offshore NGL reserves, mostly scattered around the North Island, according to US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates in 2022. The country's discovered, recoverable reserves are at between 38.3mn-52.7mn bl of oil; 29.4bn-39.8bn m³ of gas; and between 1.2mn–1.4mn t of LPG as of 1 January 2024, according to the MBIE. Besides restarting oil exploration, the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill also seeks to change permitting processes to drive capital into the sector. Permits are currently allocated through a competitive tender process, Jones told Argus this week. The government wants "the flexibility to use alternative processes to match investor interest in the most efficient and effective way by allowing the option of using non-tender methods." MBIE has indicated that the government may start using ‘priority in time' tenders, which allocates permits to the first eligible projects that apply for them, once the bill passes. But the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill does not specify how the government will manage non-competitive tenders. The government is also not using the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill to "specifically intervene in coal mining operations" in New Zealand, Jones said. But coal demand will fall "in the event that [the government is] able to expand the supply of indigenous gas," he noted. Geothermal The government's energy strategy also appears to involve doubling down on domestic geothermal generation, which is New Zealand's second most common source of power. Geothermal generators produced 2,363GWh of power between July-September, accounting for 20.5pc of total generation, in line with historical averages, according to MBIE data. New Zealand's government seems to be trying to push that share up. The government in early December decided to allocate up to NZ$60mn of public infrastructure funding to research for deep, geothermal energy production. The work will focus on drilling geothermal wells up to 6km deep, nearly twice the depth of standard wells. Jones told Argus that New Zealand officials are currently in Japan, discussing supercritical geothermal generation opportunities with engineers and scientists. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Western Australia's near-term gas supply rises: Aemo


19/12/24
19/12/24

Western Australia's near-term gas supply rises: Aemo

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — The short term supply outlook for Western Australia's (WA) gas market has improved, but gaps in the next decade need to be addressed, according to an Aemo annual report. The near-term gas supply is stronger than last year's outlook, with supply now forecast to exceed consumption through to 2027 on increased flows from LNG projects and declining near-term consumption, according to the 2024 Western Australia Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) paper from the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo). Ample gas supply is expected because of increased flows from Wheatstone and Pluto LNG projects and new supply including forecast volumes from 2026 onwards from Woodside's Scarborough project and Strike's 87 TJ/d (2.3mn m³/d) West Erregulla plant . But demand is weak on the back of the shutdown of several nickel mines for maintenance in 2024 and the closure of the 2.2mn t/yr Kwinana alumina refinery announced in January. Aemo's 10-year outlook to 2035 now forecasts surplus gas until 2028, when some gas users will reopen projects. It also forecasts a less steep shortfall in the 2030s, with 2033 supply now 13pc below demand, down from the 27pc decrease in the 2023 GSOO. New gas supply will still be needed as WA plans to close its state-owned fleet of coal-fired power stations, but increasing renewable generation will shift gas usage in the power grid to a firming capacity, with gas-fired power demand tipped to increase in the early 2030s but stabilise at present levels of about 190 TJ/d by 2040. But uncertainty remains about the future of coal in the WA grid. The 416MW Bluewaters coal-fired plant, owned by Japanese firms Kansai Electric and Sumitomo, is expected to retire by 2030-31 but may be forced to close earlier because its supplier, the 2mn t/yr Griffin coal mine , cannot guarantee deliveries beyond October 2026. This will increase gas demand. The WA state government reversed a blanket ban on exporting onshore gas as LNG in September after a parliamentary inquiry into the state's domestic gas policy prompted by concerns from major gas users such as fertilizer manufacturers and metals refiners. Developers are now permitted to export 20pc of production as LNG until 2031 to boost upstream investment in the prospective Perth basin. By Tom Major WA gas supply and demand 2024-34 (TJ/d) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Potential gas supply 1,143 1,190 1,121 1,207 1,192 1,412 1,335 1,301 1,214 1,173 1,144 Gas demand 1,119 1,069 1,082 1,154 1,354 1,342 1,357 1,378 1,371 1,343 1,336 Difference (% ± of demand) 2 11 4 5 -12 5 -2 -6 -12 -13 -14 Source: Aemo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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