Mexico GDP, inflation forecasts dim

Spanish Market: Coal, Metals, Oil products
03/06/24

The Mexican central bank reduced its forecasts for 2024 GDP growth and increased full-year inflation expectations for a second consecutive month.

The median forecast for 2024 GDP growth moved to 2.1pc in the central bank survey conducted on 23-29 May, down from 2.25pc in the previous survey and 2.4pc in March.

The survey also indicated that 2024 full-year inflation will reach 4.27pc, above the 4.2pc forecast in the previous survey and the 4.1pc forecast in March.

The new outlook is in line with the central bank's 29 May quarterly inflation report as well as the Mexican institute of finance executives' report, which suggest the slowdown in the second quarter is tied to growing concerns over fiscal pressure on public finances.

Meanwhile, the Mexican peso's value to the US dollar is expected to reach Ps17.80/$1 at the close of 2024, compared with the previous estimate of Ps17.89/$1.

That is weaker to the dollar than the recent exchange rate trend in recent months. The peso appreciated to Ps16.26/$1 on 9 April, its strongest in eight years. But it depreciated to around Ps17.70/$1 on Monday — after hovering closer to Ps17/$1 in recent weeks — as the market reacted to Sunday's presidential and congressional elections.

Early results indicate the incumbent Morena party and allies have formed a qualified majority in the lower house and very close to one in the Senate. These would allow constitutional reforms that could further restrict the private sector in areas like the energy sector and possibly curtail investment.

IMEF sees slowdown extend

The IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) issued for March suggest that "the economy is in an evident pause compared to the solid dynamism observed" in 2022-2023.

While the IMEF manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 percentage point to 49.8, it is still in contraction territory, under the 50 breakeven point. IMEF said the results show "the manufacturing sector has stagnated at the beginning of [the second quarter of 2024]."

The manufacturing employment subindex increased by 1.1 points to exactly 50. New orders was 0.3 higher at 48.1, while production increased 1.4 to 49.3, both showing diminishing rates of contraction.

By James Young

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13/05/25

UK TRA proposes 40pc cap on other countries' HDG

London, 13 May (Argus) — The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) has recommended the imposition of a 40pc cap on the other countries' quotas for hot-dip galvanised (HDG) and plate in its statement of final determination published today. It proposes that the caps come into effect on 1 October to enable material already on the water to clear and avoid supply restrictions. "This would address the concern about crowding out, whilst maintaining a similar volume of imports to come from existing supply countries," the TRA said. The other countries' quota for HDG is 88,075t for July-September, meaning anyone selling into it — the quota is dominated by Vietnam and South Korea — has access to 35,230t before duties become payable. The TRA said there should be no cap on organic coated material, despite requests to the contrary from UK Steel. Going forward, Turkey will not be in scope of the safeguard on HDG as its share during the investigation period was just 0.1pc. The TRA said unused quota should no longer be rolled forward to the next quota, and that countries with their own individual quota should have no access to the residual other countries' quota in the final quarter of the quota year, April-June. These two changes are largely in line with those made by the EU in its recent safeguard review. Vietnam will also come into the residual quota for hot-rolled coil, which is 24,295t/quarter, as its volumes have exceeded the 3pc limit specified by the WTO for developing economy status, reaching 4.3pc in the TRA's investigation period. Vietnam had been a favoured origin for traders and buyers, given its previous exemption from the measures. Egypt remains exempt and will likely be subject to increased interest going forward. Some large buyers have been visiting the country in recent months to establish supply lines. The TRA's recommendation "falls short of what is required, given the scale of the challenge the UK industry is faced with", UK Steel said. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US budget bill would prolong 45Z, boost crops

13/05/25

US budget bill would prolong 45Z, boost crops

New York, 13 May (Argus) — A proposal from House Republican tax-writers would extend for four additional years a new tax credit for low-carbon fuels and adjust the incentive to be more lenient to crops used for biofuels. Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee on Monday introduced their draft portion of a far-reaching budget bill, which included various changes to Inflation Reduction Act clean energy subsidies. But the "45Z" Clean Fuel Production Credit, which requires fuels to meet an initial carbon intensity threshold and then ups the subsidy as emissions fall, would be the only incentive from the 2022 climate law to last even longer than Democrats planned under the current draft. The proposal represents an early signal of Republicans' plans for major legislation through the Senate's reconciliation process, which allows budget-related bills to pass with a simple majority vote. The full Ways and Means Committee will consider amendments at a markup this afternoon, and House leaders want the full chamber to vote on the larger budget bill before the US Memorial Day holiday on 26 May. Afterwards, the proposal would head to the Republican-controlled Senate, where lawmakers could float further changes. But the early draft, in a chamber with multiple deficit hawks and climate change skeptics that have pushed for a full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, is remarkable for not just keeping but expanding 45Z. The basics of the incentive — offering benefits to producers instead of blenders, throttling benefits based on carbon intensity, and offering more credit to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) — would remain intact. Various changes would help fuels derived from US crops. The most notable would prevent regulators measuring carbon intensity from considering "indirect land use change" emissions that attempt to quantify the risks of using agricultural land for fuel instead of food. Under current emissions modeling, the typical dry mill corn ethanol plant does not meet the 45Z credit's initial carbon intensity requirement — but substantially more gallons produced today would have a chance at qualifying without any new investments in carbon capture if this bill were to pass. The indirect land use change would also create the possibility for canola-based fuels, which are just slightly too carbon-intensive to qualify for 45Z today, to start claiming some subsidy. Fuels from soybean oil currently qualify but would similarly benefit from larger potential credits. Still, credit values would depend on final regulations and updated carbon accounting from President Donald Trump's administration. Since the House proposal does not address the current law's blunt system for rounding emissions values up and down, relatively higher-carbon corn and canola fuels still face the risk of falling just below 45Z's required carbon intensity threshold but then being rounded up to a level where they receive zero subsidy. The House bill would also restrict eligibility to fuels derived from feedstocks sourced in the US, Canada, and Mexico — an attempt at a middle ground between refiners that have increasingly looked abroad for biofuel inputs and domestic farm groups that have lobbied for 45Z to prioritize US crops. That language would make more durable current restrictions on foreign used cooking oil and significantly reduce the incentive to import tallow from South America and Australia, a loss for major renewable diesel producers Diamond Green Diesel, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum. The provision would also hurt US biofuel producer LanzaJet, which has imported lower-carbon Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as a SAF feedstock to the chagrin of domestic corn ethanol producers. The bill would also require regulators to set more granular carbon intensity calculations for different types of animal manure biogas projects, all of which are treated the same under current rules. Other lifecycle emissions models treat some dairy projects at deeply negative carbon intensities. Those changes to carbon intensity calculations and feedstock eligibility would kick in starting next year, meaning current rules would remain intact for now. The proposal would however phase out the ability of clean energy companies without enough tax liability to claim the full value of Inflation Reduction Act subsidies to sell those tax credits to other businesses. That pathway, known as transferability, would end for clean fuel producers after 2027, hurting small biodiesel producers that operate under thin margins in the best of times as well as SAF startups that were planning to start producing fuel later this decade. Markets unresponsive, but prepare for new possibilities There was little immediate reaction across biofuel, feedstock, and renewable identification number (RIN) credit markets, since the bill could be modified and most of the changes would only take force in the future. But markets may shift down the road. Limiting eligibility to feedstocks originating in North America for instance could continue recent strength in US soybean oil futures markets. July CBOT Soybean oil futures closed 3pc higher on Monday at 49.92¢/lb on the news and have traded even higher today. The spread between soybean oil and heating oil futures is then highly influential for the cost of D4 biomass-based diesel RIN credits, which are crucial for biofuel margins and have recently surged in value to their highest prices in over a year. The more lenient carbon accounting will also help farmers eyeing a long-term future in renewable fuel markets and will support margins for ethanol and biodiesel producers reliant on crops. Corn and soy groups have pushed the government for less punitive emissions tracking, worried that crop demand could wane if refiners could only turn a profit by using lower-carbon waste feedstocks instead. The House bill, if passed, would still run up against contradictory incentives from other governments, including SAF mandates in Europe that restrict fuels from crops and California's efforts to soon limit state low-carbon fuel standard credits for fuels derived from vegetable oils. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico industrial production contracts in March

13/05/25

Mexico industrial production contracts in March

Mexico City, 13 May (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production contracted by 0.9pc in March from the previous month, as declines in mining and manufacturing were only partly offset by continued growth in construction. The drop was not enough to undo the 2.2pc increase in February — the sharpest monthly expansion in four years — as manufacturers ramped up output ahead of incoming US tariffs. The March industrial production index (IMAI), published by statistics agency Inegi, was higher than Mexican bank Banorte's forecast of a 1.4pc decline. Banorte noted signs of volatility affecting manufacturing and other sectors because of a complex trade outlook. Manufacturing contracted 1.1pc in March after expanding 2.9pc in February. The impact varied across subsectors, with metal goods down 5.5pc and transportation, including auto production, down 1.1pc. Volatility may ease in the coming months as US tariff policies become clearer and Mexican officials push to preserve the country's trade edge under US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules, Banorte said. Construction expanded 0.8pc in March, following increases of 3.4pc in February and 0.5pc in January, driven by higher public investment tied to President Claudia Sheinbaum's economic plan, "Plan Mexico." Analysts see the plan as a catalyst for continued growth in construction this year, with measures including greater domestic content in public purchases, public-private participation in infrastructure projects and a target of $100bn in private infrastructure investment for 2025. These effects could be amplified by aggressive interest rate cuts from the central bank. Mining contracted by 2.7pc in March, returning to negative territory after a slight 0.1pc uptick in February. Oil and gas output also contracted 2.7pc after rising 1.0pc the month before, while non-oil mining contracted 4.3pc in March after a 0.6pc increase in February. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation eases to 2.3pc in April

13/05/25

US inflation eases to 2.3pc in April

Houston, 13 May (Argus) — US inflation slowed in April, pulled lower by falling gasoline prices, while core inflation continued to show signs of mounting inflation pressures, as the new US administration's tariff policies have scrambled corporate and consumer investment and spending patterns. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3pc in April, down from 2.4pc in March and off from 2.8pc in February and the lowest rate since February 2021, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast a 2.4pc rate for April. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose at an 2.8pc annual rate, unchanged from the prior month. The deceleration in inflation came a month after President Donald Trump began to levy tariffs on imports from China and on steel, aluminum and automobiles, starting in February. Several tariff deadlines were pushed back, including a three-month pause enacted this week on much steeper tariffs for most countries. The tariffs have prompted companies and consumers to pull back on investments and some purchases while shaking up financial markets, and heightening concerns of a global recession. The energy index fell by an annual 3.7pc in April, down from 3.3pc in March. Gasoline fell by 11.8pc after a 9.8pc decline. Piped natural gas rose by an annual 15.7pc following a 9.4pc gain. Food rose by an annual 2.8pc, slowing from 3pc. Eggs slowed to an annual 49.3pc after an annual 60.4pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by an annual 4pc in March, matching the prior gain. Services less energy services rose by 3.6pc, slowing from 3.7pc in March. New vehicle prices edged up by an annual 0.3pc. CPI rose by a monthly 0.2pc in April after falling by 0.1pc in March. Core inflation rose by 0.2pc for the month following a 0.1pc gain in March. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ISTA blasts 'ludicrous' Tata Steel UK assertion to TRA

13/05/25

ISTA blasts 'ludicrous' Tata Steel UK assertion to TRA

London, 13 May (Argus) — Tata Steel UK's claim to the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) that 2m-wide hot-rolled coil (HRC) could be bought for slitting is "ludicrous", according to the International Steel Trade Association (ISTA). In a submission to the TRA as part of its safeguard review, Tata said that if 2m-wide material, which it does not produce, is removed from the safeguard, it would be bought and slit, meaning it is no different from the material produced by Tata . But ISTA said 2m-wide HRC is a "significant part" of the yellow goods market and is used by companies such as JCB, Caterpillar and Liebherr for earth-moving, construction and agricultural equipment. It is also used in pipe and tube production and does not constitute a small proportion of the overall market, as suggested by Tata, ISTA said. The material must be imported as it is not manufactured in the UK and carries a premium over speed-stock widths produced by Tata. "For Tata Steel, who import volumes of this width themselves, to suggest that wider coil is ‘often imported only to be slit to narrower cuts' is ludicrous," ISTA said, arguing that there are "almost no" slitting lines in the UK that are capable of slitting 2m-wide material. The lines that do exist typically slit hot-dip galvanised (HDG) rather than HRC, Argus understands. Importers have also questioned the economic rationale of Tata's assertion that if higher-yield HDG is removed from the safeguard, importers would buy it and use it to compete with more commoditised grades produced by Tata. Higher-yield material carries a premium, and it would make no economic sense to pay it and then compete in the commodity market, trading firms told Argus . The TRA, which is expected to announce its provisional findings this week, is widely anticipated to propose caps on the quota for other countries' HDG. Importers told Argus that they were surprised by the aggressive tone of Tata's rebuttal to claims fielded by importers about material that it does not produce being excluded from the safeguard. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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