EU faces tougher path to climate legislation

Right-wing parties' strong showing in the European Parliament elections are likely to mean a looser embrace of the Green Deal, writes Dafydd ab Iago

The European Parliament elections have resulted in a workable majority for parties that supported the EU's 2030 climate and energy strategy. But political uncertainty in the EU's two largest countries, Germany and France, could add to the difficulties the bloc faces in legislating for its2040 target of cutting net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 90pc, compared with 1990 levels.

Outgoing member of the European Parliament Markus Pieper sees the majority paving the way for a more pragmatic approach in 2024-29, with internal combustion engine vehicles staying on the roads beyond 2035, and more flexible rules for CO2-neutral fuels such as low-carbon hydrogen, e-fuels, and biofuels.

The newly constituted parliament's first plenary session is scheduled to take place in Strasbourg on 16-19 July, when members will choose the parliament's next president and vice-presidents and decide on committee memberships. Awaiting legislation for 2040 climate goals, members from the influential environment and energy committees have a range of technical legislation to approve related to the bloc's 2030 climate goals.

This begins with the approval of legislation defining vehicles running "exclusively" on CO2-neutral fuels. A little further down the line, the environment committee will weigh in on legislation setting methane intensity classes for producers and companies selling oil, gas and coal in the EU by 2030.

Passing legislation for the 2040 GHG targets will depend on parliamentary and member state approval. Overseeing the legal proposals will be the European Commission president, with Ursula von der Leyen eyeing re-election to this post after her centre-right EPP won 189 seats in parliament. Together with centre-left and liberal parties, von der Leyen's EPP group could form a comfortable majority for climate and energy legislation, with over 400 of the 720 seats. This does not include the Greens, who lost 19 seats and are now down to 53, nor the 135 centre-left socialists.

The election results have undoubtably strengthened von der Leyen's bid to be re-elected as commission president, and EU leaders are due to meet on 17 June for their first formal discussions on the matter. The parliament as a whole must approve the EU leaders' choice of commission president, along with the 27 commissioners, including those responsible for energy and climate, that are to take office by the end of the year.

Green knights

Von der Leyen oversaw the implementation of the Green Deal — the overarching set of policies aimed at cutting EU GHG emissions by 55pc by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Environment committee member Michael Bloss says it is "absurd" that the Greens now appear to have to come to von der Leyen's aid to rescue her Green Deal, and that he fears the prospect of von der Leyen's EPP group forming majorities in parliament with the conservative ECR and far-right groups. "The Green Deal is not dead," Bloss says.

If reappointed, von der Leyen will find herself contending with national capitals more willing to oppose ambitious climate and energy targets. In response to strong gains by the far-right, eurosceptic National Rally party in the EU elections, French president Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called snap National Assembly elections for 30 June and 7 July. And Germany's far-right opposition AfD party outperformed chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left SPD, altering Berlin's coalition politics. With Germany's Bundestag election on the horizon in September or October 2025, sensitive coalition politics could well hinder approval of more ambitious, and costly, EU climate legislation.