Shipping industry urges action to stop Red Sea attacks

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Crude oil, Oil products
20/06/24

The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has called for urgent action to stop "unlawful attacks" on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Yemen's Houthi rebels after the sinking of a second bulk carrier since November last year.

"This is an unacceptable situation, and these attacks must stop now," the ICS said. "We call for states with influence in the region to safeguard our innocent seafarers and for the swift de-escalation of the situation in the Red Sea."

The Iran-backed Houthis began attacking ships in the Red Sea six weeks after the Israel-Hamas war broke out last year in what they claim is an act of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. The British-owned, Belize-flagged Handysize bulk carrier Rubymar sank on 4 March this year, four weeks after a Houthi attack. And the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on 19 June that it believes the Greek-owned and operated bulk carrier Tutor has also sunk after the Houthis struck it with an unmanned surface vessel on 12 June.

Since the attacks began, three sailors have been killed and two ships seized in separate incidents, one of which has since been freed.

"We have heard the condemnation and appreciate the words of support, but we urgently seek action to stop the unlawful attacks on these vital workers and this vital industry," the ICS said. "And we must not forget the crew members from the [cargo vessel] Galaxy Leader and [containership] MSC Aries who are still being held captive."

The Houthis have stepped up their attacks in recent days, prompting counter measures by US and UK military forces deployed in the area. The Red Sea is one of the world's most important shipping lanes, serving as a vital trade link between Europe and Asia.

The attacks have led to an increase in freight rates and shipping insurance costs. And they have disrupted trade flows through the Suez Canal at the northern end of the Red Sea as many shipowners opt to avoid the area by taking the longer route around the southern tip of Africa.

The combined flow of crude and oil products transiting the Suez Canal in both directions dropped by 34pc on the month and by 65pc on the year in May, according to preliminary data from trade analytics firm Kpler. Most oil passing through the canal southbound is now of Russian origin — 92pc in May, according to Kpler data. India, China and the Middle East were the main destinations.

By Bachar Halabi

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12/12/24

NordBit to exit Dunkirk bitumen terminal at year-end

London, 12 December (Argus) — Hamburg-based bitumen supply and trading firm NordBit will end its operations at the Dunkirk bitumen terminal in northeast France at the end of this year, a source familiar with the firm's operations said. NordBit — a bitumen joint venture between German firms Mabanol and H&R — has been operating the 11,000-12,000t capacity terminal since 2019 . The bitumen facility is part of a wider oil products and chemicals complex at Dunkirk. According to vessel tracking data, the bitumen terminal at Dunkirk has received 25,900t this year, although no cargoes have been discharged since August. Market participants said the terminal is in need of upgrading and will probably need the work done ahead of renting. The imminent halt to NordBit's operations at Dunkirk comes as French building conglomerate Vinci's Eurovia subsidiary nears completion of its own new and separate 16,000t capacity bitumen terminal in Dunkirk which is scheduled to start operating from March or April next year. By Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

12/12/24

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

London, 12 December (Argus) — The recent decision by Opec+ members to delay a planned output increase has "materially reduced" a potential supply surplus next year, the IEA said today. Opec+ producers earlier this month pushed back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. Still, the oil market in 2025 is still likely to be significantly oversupplied, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report (OMR), given persistent overproduction by some Opec+ members, strong supply growth from outside the alliance and modest global oil demand growth. The Paris-based agency's base case forecasts show supply exceeding demand by 950,000 b/d next year, even if all Opec+ cuts remain in place. The supply surplus would increase to 1.4mn b/d if alliance members start increasing output from April as planned, the IEA said. This is far from guaranteed. Opec+ has already delayed its plan to increase output three times and continues to say a decision to unwind will depend on market conditions. While the IEA expects oil demand growth to remain subdued next year, its latest forecasts show a slightly higher outlook than in its previous report . The agency revised up its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 90,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d, largely because of China's recently announced economic stimulus measures. This would see global consumption rise to 103.9mn b/d. But the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 80,000 b/d, to 840,000 b/d, mostly because of "weaker-than-expected non-OECD deliveries in countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia." It said non-OECD oil demand growth in the third quarter, at 320,000 b/d, was the lowest since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The IEA said lacklustre demand growth this year and next reflects "a generally sub-par macroeconomic environment and changing patterns of oil use." Increases will be driven by petrochemical feedstocks, and demand for transport fuels "will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological progress." On supply, the IEA downgraded its growth estimates for 2025 by 110,000 b/d to 1.9mn b/d. Most of this will come from non-Opec+ countries such as the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency nudged lower its supply forecasts for this year, by 10,000 b/d to 630,000 b/d. The IEA said global observed oil stocks declined by 39.3mn bl in October, led by an "exceptionally sharp" fall in oil product inventories due to low refinery activity coupled with higher demand. It said preliminary data show a rebound in global inventories in November. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US road fuel stocks highest since September

11/12/24

US road fuel stocks highest since September

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — US road fuel stocks last week rose to the highest since September, even as demand climbed, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. US gasoline stocks in the week ended 6 December rose to 219.7mn bl, up by 2.4pc from a week earlier and the highest inventory level since the week ended 27 September. Compared with a year earlier, gasoline stocks were down by 1.9pc.. US gasoline product supplied, a proxy for demand, rose for a third consecutive week to 8.81mn b/d, notching a 0.8pc increase on the week, but falling by 0.6pc on the year. Average US retail gasoline prices slipped by 2.6¢/USG to $3.008/USG in the week ended 9 December, the eighth-consecutive weekly drop , according to an earlier EIA report. Weekly EIA demand data is prone to sharp swings, while EIA monthly data, released with a lag, provides a more accurate picture of US demand. The four-week average of combined product supplied and exports was 9.6mn b/d, a 1.8pc decrease from the previous four-week average but up by 0.6pc from the average a year earlier. US gasoline exports last week averaged 1.04mn b/d, growing by 4.5pc from a week earlier but dipping by 8.1pc on the year. Imports fell by 9.2pc on the week to 464,000 b/d and lagged behind year earlier levels by 35pc. Diesel stocks up US ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) stocks increased to 112.9mn bl, up by 3.2mn bl on the week and the highest inventory level since 20 September. ULSD stocks were up by 8.5mn bl from the same week in 2023. Distillate fuel oil product supplied, which includes ULSD and high sulphur fuel oil, rose on the week by 1.5pc to 3.45mn b/d, rebounding from the prior week's decline. Still, this was down by 8.5pc from a year earlier. The implied demand for distillate fuel oil, calculated using the four-week average of combined product supply and exports, stood at 5mn b/d last week. This was down by 1.8pc from the previous week but up by 2.9pc from a year earlier. Exports of US distillate fuel oil dropped on the week by 5.1pc to 1.47mn b/d but rose by 22pc from the same week last year. ULSD imports rose by 33pc to 154,000 b/d, the highest imports since 1 November, but decreased by 25pc from a year earlier. US jet fuel stockpiles increased to 41.9mn bl, up by 0.6pc from the previous week and up by 14pc from the same week in 2023. Increased jet fuel stocks come as US airline passenger traffic declined last week from a three-month high , falling by 0.2pc to 17.3mn passengers, according to Transportation Security Administration data. Refinery runs fall US gross refinery crude inputs dropped last week by 0.9pc to 16.9mn b/d, easing from a three-month high, but inputs were up by 2.8pc from the same week in 2023. Refinery utilization rates declined on the week by 0.9 percentage points to 92.4pc. Still, this refinery rates were up by 2.2 points compared to a year earlier. By Zach Appel and Hunter Fite EIA weekly refined products data Stocks mn bl 6-Dec 29-Nov ±% Year ago ±% Gasoline 219.7 214.6 2.4% 224.0 -1.9% Jet 41.9 41.7 0.6% 36.8 13.7% Distillate fuel 121.3 118.1 2.7% 113.5 6.9% -- ultra low-sulphur (<= 15ppm sulphur) 112.9 109.7 2.9% 104.4 8.1% Imports '000 b/d Total products 1,546 1,479 4.5% 1,976 -21.8% Gasoline 464 511 -9.2% 715 -35.1% Jet 160 75 113.3% 84 90.5% Distillate fuel 154 116 32.8% 205 -24.9% Exports '000 b/d Total products 6,906 7,542 -8.4% 6,553 5.4% Gasoline 1,039 994 4.5% 1,131 -8.1% Jet 219 381 -42.5% 183 19.7% Distillate fuel 1,471 1,550 -5.1% 1,208 21.8% Refinery usage Refinery inputs '000 b/d 16,933 17,094 -0.9% 16,476 2.8% Refinery utilisation % 92.4 93.3 -1.0% 90.2 2.4% Products supplied '000 b/d Total products 20,158 19,968 1.0% 21,079 -4.4% Gasoline 8,810 8,738 0.8% 8,859 -0.6% Jet 1,841 1,610 14.3% 1,871 -1.6% Distillate fuel 3,450 3,398 1.5% 3,770 -8.5% — US Energy Information Administration Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec trims oil demand growth forecasts again

11/12/24

Opec trims oil demand growth forecasts again

London, 11 December (Argus) — Opec has revised down its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a fifth time in a row. In its final Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the year, the producer group has cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 1.45mn b/d. This is entirely driven by a downgrade in its demand projection for the Middle East. From the start of this year right up until July, Opec had been forecasting global demand growth of 1.85mn b/d for next year. The group has also lowered its demand growth forecast for this year — by 210,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d, mostly driven by reduced growth projections in the Middle East, India and the Americas. Up until July, Opec had been predicting that demand would increase by 2.25mn b/d this year. Opec's downward demand growth revisions slightly close the gap with other forecasters such as the IEA and EIA, which project much lower levels of consumption growth. The IEA sees oil demand growing by 920,000 b/d this year and by 990,000 b/d next year, while the EIA projects 890,000 b/d and 1.29mn b/d, respectively. On supply, Opec has kept its non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecast for next year unchanged at 1.11mn b/d. But it has upgraded its estimate for this year by 50,000 b/d to 1.28mn b/d, underpinned by stronger-than-expected US production. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — increased by 323,000 b/d to 40.665mn b/d in November, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . The call on Opec+ crude remains 42.4mn b/d for this year and 42.7mn b/d for next year, according to the MOMR. Opec+ producers agreed earlier this month to delay a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's inflation accelerates to near 5pc in November

10/12/24

Brazil's inflation accelerates to near 5pc in November

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