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Phillips 66 completes Rodeo renewables conversion

  • Spanish Market: Biofuels, Crude oil, Oil products
  • 26/06/24

Phillips 66's Rodeo, California, refinery has completed a multi-year, billion-dollar conversion to process only renewable feedstocks, increasing throughput rates to 50,000 b/d.

The 128-year-old Rodeo plant stopped processing crude in February, taking up to 115,000 b/d of oil refining capacity offline as it transitioned to producing renewable diesel (RD) and, eventually, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

The plant initially bought and refined pre-treated feedstocks while building its own 40,000 b/d pre-treatment unit (PTU), whose two 20,000 b/d trains will prepare raw feeds such as used cooking oil, fats, greases and vegetable oil for Rodeo's three renewable diesel units (RDUs) before the end of this month.

"The pre-treatment area will run at max rates as soon as it's commissioned," and refine harder-to-process feedstocks later in the year, Rodeo refinery manager Jolie Rhinehart told Argus on site at the plant earlier this month. "Our units will be able to process the lowest carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks, something that's called brown grease."

There is also a financial incentive to process lower CI feeds. "That's how you really make money in these assets," Phillips 66 chief executive Mark Lashier told investors at the JP Morgan Energy Power & Renewables conference earlier this month.

While optimizing feedstocks may help boost profits at the plant, Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits — which provide much of the financial incentive for renewable fuel conversions — are in the doldrums. A robust supply of low-carbon fuels such as RD to west coast markets has outstripped demand in recent years, helping drive down LCFS credit prices to nine-year lows earlier this month. But the unbalanced market has not led Phillips 66 to alter its strategy.

Ample demand for renewable fuels

There will be "ample" demand for Rodeo's refined products in the short-term, Rhinehart told Argus. "One thing that is stronger than ever is demand for liquid transportation fuels in the state of California."

She plans to run the Rodeo plant like Phillip 66's other crude refineries, altering throughputs according to the cost and availability of feedstocks and the price that it can sell finished product. "We're not going to run if we're not making money," Rhinehart said.

Still, the company has signaled its intention to run high rates. "We see good economic incentives to run and run full [at Rodeo]," Lashier told conference attendees, noting that while LCFS credits are "compressed," feedstock costs are also lower than the company anticipated.

Another part of the profitability equation Phillips 66 does have control over is the infrastructure to distribute RD, selling Rodeo's product alongside conventional fuels at its "76" brand gas stations across the west coast.

The company owns a products pipeline that connects Rodeo to a Phillips 66 marine and truck rack terminal on the San Francisco Bay, just south of Chevron's 245,000 b/d Richmond refinery (See map).

"We're very confident in our ability to place all those [renewable product] barrels locally," Rhinehart said. "And if there's demand outside of the region, we will surely supply that if the market supports it."

Rodeo has so far supplied RD to California, Washington and Oregon and the Canadian province of British Columbia.

Like a conventional crude refinery, the Rodeo complex will also periodically reduce throughputs for maintenance. Rhinehart expects a catalyst change for one of its reactors every year-and-a-half and a full catalyst change for all reactors every three years.

Although Rodeo is up and running, permitting difficulties could preclude any future expansion of the plant. Rhinehart has a "substantial" list of projects she would like to progress, potentially including green hydrogen, but worries whether the company could make it through the permitting process.

This was a concern also voiced by Phillips 66's executive vice president of emerging energy and sustainability Zhanna Golodryga in an interview with Argus at the company's Houston headquarters earlier this month.

"We probably could have brought Rodeo online sooner if we didn't have to wait for some permits," she said in reference to a back-and-forth with Contra Costa County late last year over Rodeo's environmental impact review.

Golodryga is eyeing the Gulf coast for Phillips 66's next low carbon energy hub, believing that Texas is the energy transitions Silicon Valley.

Phillips 66's west coast refining assets

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24/12/24

Viewpoint: US Gulf high-octane component prices to rise

Viewpoint: US Gulf high-octane component prices to rise

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — Cash prices of high-octane gasoline blending components in the US Gulf coast are likely to rise in 2025 after a year of declines as lower refining capacity starts to thin stocks. Alkylate and reformate cash prices and differentials have been lower over the course of 2024, in part from weaker refining margins. The lower margins are reflected in the region's crack spreads, which narrowed to $12.94/USG on 19 December from $18.67/USG a year earlier, as abundant supply in the region met weak demand . Inventories in the region have also been lower over the course of the year. Stocks in the region fell in November by 2pc from a year earlier to an average 29.75mn bl. US Gulf coast crack spreads have been declining steadily since 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) November Short-Term Energy Outlook, brought on by lower overall product demand, especially for gasolin e . But the EIA expects spreads to hold steady next year, even with a decrease in refining capacity, potentially supporting prices for high-octane components. The upcoming year will also bring a significant refinery closure to the region, which should reduce production and raise cash prices of components such as alkylate and reformate. LyondellBasell's closure of its 264,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery is scheduled to start in January. The refinery's fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC), which converts vacuum gasoil primarily into gasoline blendstocks, is expected to be shut in February, followed by a complete end to crude refining by the end of the first quarter. US total refining capacity should fall to 17.9mn b/d by the end of 2025, according to the EIA, 400,000 b/d less than at the end of 2024, with the lower production leading to price increases. Although the LyondellBasell closing should eventually give crack spreads in the region a boost, some in the industry do not expect a return to pre-pandemic levels of refining margins in the immediate future. CVR Energy chief executive David Lamp said in November the company needed "to see additional refining capacity rationalization in both the US and globally" for crack spreads to gain ground. An increase in consumer demand for gasoline would also support a rise in cash prices and differentials for high-octane components. But the EIA in December forecast consumption nationwide would rise in 2025 by only 10,000 b/d, or 0.1pc, to 8.95mn b/d. By Jason Metko Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Ethanol producers face higher costs in 2025


24/12/24
24/12/24

Viewpoint: Ethanol producers face higher costs in 2025

London, 24 December (Argus) — European ethanol producers may face rising output costs in 2025 as a poorer harvest season will push feedstock prices up, while other factors such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values could affect the price of finished products. Unfavourable weather conditions have led to a poor 2024-25 harvest, particularly for wheat. In Ukraine, Europe's largest wheat exporter excluding Russia, Argus forecasts wheat production will drop to 22.3mn t during 2024-25 , down from a five-year average of 24.7mn t. Corn supply from the country for 2024-25 is projected to fall to 22.9mn t, down from 31.5mn t in the previous season, according to Argus data. France — Europe's largest producer of ethanol — has cut its wheat production outlook for 2024-25 because of wet weather. And rainfall in other parts of Europe has affected corn toxin levels, potentially leading to poorer quality ethanol. This will likely weigh on ethanol output in 2025 as it will strain feedstock supplies, push production costs up and squeeze margins for producers. Nuts 2 It comes as markets are still waiting for an update on level 2 in the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values — the so called Nuts 2 values. To determine the GHG emissions from growing crops in the EU, the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) allows the use of typical units that represent the average GHG value in a specific area. On the back of the implementation of the recast of RED (RED II), the European Commission requested an update of the Nuts 2 GHG values. Member states have to prepare new crop reports to be assessed by the commission. But reports have been slow to emerge, while those that have been submitted face a lengthy review. Producers rely on GHG values to calculate the GHG savings of end-products, but default RED values currently in place are significantly lower than the typical GHG values from Nuts 2. While this is unlikely to have long-term effects beyond 2025, in the current context finding values that meet market participants' criteria has been difficult for some, which may support prices. Rising demand Demand for waste-based and ethanol with higher GHG savings should increase in 2025 as a result of policy changes, after lower renewable fuel ticket prices in key European markets kept buying interest in check in 2024. Tickets are generated by companies supplying biofuels for transport. They are tradeable and can help obligated parties meet renewables mandates. The decline in prices for GHG tickets in Germany — the main demand centre for minimum 90pc GHG savings ethanol — weighed on ethanol consumption in 2024, squeezing the differential to product with lower GHG savings. The premium averaged around €17/m³ ($17.7/m³) from 1 January-1 December 2024, down from around €43/m³ during the same period in 2023. But an increase in Germany's GHG quota in 2025, coupled with Germany's decision to pause the use of GHG certificates carried forward from previous compliance years towards the 2025 and 2026 blending mandate, should increase physical blending and lift premiums for ethanol with high GHG savings, according to market participants. Meanwhile, the Netherlands' ministry of infrastructure and water management's plan to reduce the amount of Dutch tickets that obligated companies will be able to carry forward to 2025 to 10pc from 25pc may have little effect on Dutch double-counting ethanol premiums in 2025. Participants expect steady premiums, despite slightly higher overall blending targets. The Argus double-counting ethanol fob ARA premium to crop-based ethanol fob ARA averaged €193/m³ from 1 February-1 December 2024. Biomethanol slows Lower ticket prices in the UK have kept a lid on demand for alternative waste-based gasoline blendstock biomethanol. The Argus cif UK biomethanol price averaged $1,089/t from 1 Jauary-1 December, compared with $1,229/t during the same period of 2023. The European Commission's proposal to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels, if relying on gas that has been transported through grids outside the EU, continues to slow negotiations for 2025 imports of biomethanol of US origin into the EU. But demand for biomethanol and e-methanol could be supported by growing interest from the maritime sector as shipowners seek to reduce emissions after the EU's FuelEU maritime regulation comes into effect. Shipping giant Maersk has signed several letters of intent for the procurement of biomethanol and e-methanol from producers such as Equinor , Proman and OCI Global . By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: European HSFO supply to stay short


24/12/24
24/12/24

Viewpoint: European HSFO supply to stay short

London, 24 December (Argus) — A sustained reduction in global supply should keep European higher-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices and margins elevated in 2025. European HSFO differentials against the front-month Ice Brent crude futures contract briefly moved to a premium in October 2024, when a fall in production coincided with strengthening demand for high-sulphur marine fuel. A fire at a crude distillation unit in September severely cut output at Motor Oil Hellas' 180,000 b/d Corinth refinery in Greece, a key HSFO bunker producer in the Mediterranean region. The possibility of sudden drops in output at refineries will underpin HSFO margins in 2025, assuming Europe maintains its ban on imports of Russian oil products. Europe imported sour fuel oil from a variety of other countries in 2024 — Iraq emerged as the largest single supplier of high-sulphur residual product, according to Kpler , accounting for about a third of the region's 5.7mn t of imports. Europe's HSFO stocks will come under indirect pressure next year from falling fuel oil output in Russia. Additional upgrading capacity at Russian refineries means output from the world's top fuel oil supplier has been dropping year-on-year. Vortexa data show nearly 37mn t of Russian fuel oil has arrived at non-Russian ports this year, 12pc lower than in 2023. Although Europe cannot take any of this, the fall means less to go around globally and this has a knock-on effect on European supply. If middle-distillate crack spreads stay relatively lacklustre in 2025, appetite for higher-sulphur straight run feedstocks will probably be subdued. This could allow for excess sour fuel oil to find its way into the marine fuels market, where demand for HSFO has been strong. Tankers opting to avoid the risk of being attacked by Yemen-based Houthi militants in the Red Sea are adding weeks to their journey times, and have been looking to HSFO rather than very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) to keep their bunker costs down. If longer shipping routes remain popular in 2025, demand for HSFO should stay strong. The Emissions Control Area (ECA) that will cover the Mediterranean Sea from 1 May 2025 could dampen buying interest for 3.5pc sulphur marine fuels. A sulphur scrubber can undergo more wear and tear if it is made to reduce a vessel's HSFO emission level to 0.1pc, in line with the ECA, rather than to the current limit of 0.5pc. This increases rates at which the scrubber needs to be replaced, making it uneconomical to install one. Mid-range sulphur fuel oils are now garnering interest from Mediterranean-based bunker buyers as a workaround. LSSR As the ECA comes into force, demand for the sweetest grades of low-sulphur straight-run (LSSR) fuel oil is likely to intensify from those who buy marine fuels for vessels not fitted with scrubbers. Demand for 0.1-0.2pc sulphur straight-run fuel oil has been high in 2024, reinforcing competition between blenders and refiners for Algerian LSSR. Exports of Algerian LSSR were 1.28mn t in the year to 20 December 2024, lower by 38pc from year-earlier levels and by 65pc from the same period in 2022, but global supply was somewhat balanced by output from Nigeria's new 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. It exported 870,000t of LSSR in 2024, of a reportedly similar grade to the Algerian product according to data from Vortexa. Most Nigerian cargoes exported in 2024 were used for blending, according to information gathered by Argus . LSSR export availability from Dangote will depend on the refinery's ability to run feedstocks through residue fluid catalytic cracking units for gasoline production. Potentially adding to west African LSSR, at the start of December Nigeria's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery sold its first cargo since its long-awaited restart on 27 November. Port Harcourt's LSSR contains 0.26pc sulphur, according to Kpler. By Bob Wigin and Isabella Reimi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude production resumes at Karoon’s Brazil Bauna field


24/12/24
24/12/24

Crude production resumes at Karoon’s Brazil Bauna field

Sydney, 24 December (Argus) — Australia-listed oil producer Karoon Energy has restarted its Bauna project offshore Brazil, the firm said today. Output resumed late on 22 December local time, Karoon said. This followed the repair of one of two mooring chains tethering its floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel, which failed on 11 December , leading the company to cut its 2024 guidance to 27,600-28,100 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), down from an earlier 28,700-29,500 boe/d. The second mooring chain is expected to be repaired by mid-January, Karoon said. An investigation into the failure will be jointly undertaken with FPSO owner and operator Ocyan, and its joint-venture partner Altera Infrastructure. Bauna production was about 24,500 b/d before the shutdown, with Karoon expecting to reach this level again in the coming days. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump-Panama tiff highlights rising transit cost


24/12/24
24/12/24

Trump-Panama tiff highlights rising transit cost

New York, 23 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump's threat on Saturday to reclaim the Panama Canal for the US put a spotlight on rising costs this year and additional fees planned by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) for 2025 in the ongoing fallout of a 2023 drought in Central America. Trump claimed that the US is the "number one user" of the Panama Canal, with "over 70pc of all transits heading to, or from, US ports" on 21 December. ACP data for ships destined for or departing from the US puts this percentage at 73pc in 2023 and 75.5pc in 2024 based on total tonnage of commodities moved through the canal. "This complete ‘rip-off' of our Country will immediately stop…" Trump said. The base transit tolls at the Panama Canal have been on the rise and are largely in line with those at the Suez Canal, but Panama Canal costs can be much higher for vessel operators that compete in auctions to enter the Central American passageway. The operator of a medium range (MR) tanker traveling laden through the Panama Canal would pay $279,564.87 in transit fees, while the operator of a laden very large gas carrier (VLGC) would pay $505,268.24 without accounting for reservation costs, ACP estimates. Suez Canal fees have also been on the rise , with MR tanker at $274,001 throughout 2024, while a VLGC operator would pay $487,562. But after last year's drought caused the ACP to temporarily limit transits, ACP required shippers to book transit reservations. Shippers unable to secure reservations via pre-booking often resort to the transit slot auction, where winning bids vary wildly. Pre-booked transit slots often quickly sell out to the containership and LPG vessel owners that dominate the top spots on the ACP's client list. Auction prices for the Neopanamax locks, which have a starting bid of $100,000 and handle large vessels like VLGCs, are at about $220,000, per Argus assessments. Auction prices for the Panamax locks, which have a starting bid of $55,000 and handle vessels like MR tankers, are around $75,000. The highest Neopanamax auction price was nearly $4mn, with the highest Panamax auction price at about half that level. In December 2023, 30pc of Panamax lock tanker transits were reserved via the auction system , according to ACP. The president-elect's criticism of the ACP's handling of Panama Canal fees comes as the administrators of the waterway bounce back from a severe drought throughout 2023. Freshwater levels in the manmade Gatun Lake that helps to feed the canal have recovered because of the return of the rainy season this year, but ACP has maintained its requirement that shippers wishing to transit have reserved transit slots. Prior to the drought, ACP maintained a first-come, first-serve basis for vessels without reservations. ACP ups reservation costs, adds fees for 2025 Starting in 2025, ACP is maintaining the auction system while also increasing pre-booking costs and adding other fees. ACP will raise transit reservation fees from $41,000 to $50,000 for Panamax lock transits for "Super" category vessels, including MR tankers. Neopanamax lock transit reservation fees will climb from $80,000 to $100,000 on 1 January. ACP announced a third transit option in late 2024 for vessel operators in the form of the "Last Minute Transit Reservation" (LMTR) fee to start 1 January 2025 alongside other new fees and higher existing reservation fees. ACP set the cost of the LMTR fee at about twice the starting bid of an auction , or $100,000 for Supers and $200,000 for Neopanamax, and will likely offer the LMTR fee to vessels that fail to secure a transit slot at auction. Furthermore, vessel operators that cancel within two days of their transit will be charged a fee at 2.5 times the transit reservation fee, described by the ACP as a surcharge to the existing cancellation fee, which ranges up to 100pc of the transit reservation fee depending on how close to the transit date that an operator cancels. This means that a Super vessel that cancels within two days of its transit date will receive the 2.5 times surcharge on top of the 100pc transit reservation cancellation fee and pay a total of $175,000. A Neopanamax vessel will pay a total of $350,000. "Vessels of war" should also vie for slots: ACP Trump also suggested that the ACP was charging the US Navy, alongside US corporations, "exorbitant prices and rates of passage" and that these fees were "unfair and injudicious". In March 2024, the ACP published an update on transit slot assignments for vessels of war, auxiliary vessels and other "government-owned" vessels encouraging their operators to participate in the transit system rather than waiting for the ACP to assign them a slot. "Vessels of war, auxiliary vessels, and other government-owned vessels are encouraged to obtain a booking slot through the available booking mechanisms in order to have their transit date guaranteed and minimize the possibility of delays," the ACP said. The ACP points out that these vessels of war are entitled to "expeditious transits" based on the Treaty Concerning Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Canal and are technically not required to obtain a reservation to be considered for transit. Panama president Jose Raul Mulino on Sunday rejected Trump's threat to retake the canal , which has been under full control of the Central American country since 1999. The canal's rates are established in a public and transparent manner, taking into account market conditions, Mulino said. "Every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area is Panama's and will continue to be," Mulino said. "The sovereignty and independence of our country are non-negotiable." By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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