EIA raises US coal power forecast for 2024-25
Coal-fired generation in the US is expected to be higher this year and in 2025 compared with 2023 levels in response to elevated natural gas prices, government projections released today show.
Coal power will increase by 2.7pc from a year earlier to 688.5bn kWh in 2024, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook today. Coal generation in 2025 will then slip to 674.5bn kWh, which would still be slightly higher than 2023's 670.7bn kWh.
The coal generation outlooks for this year and next are both above what EIA projected in June. Today is also the first time this year that EIA said it expected 2024 coal power to top 2023 levels.
"After reviewing the responsiveness of fossil fuel generation to natural gas prices, we now expect more power generation from coal and less from natural gas than we did in our previous forecast, especially during the winter," EIA said.
The agency projected spot natural gas prices at the Henry Hub to average $2.49/mmBtu this year, down from $2.54/mmBtu in 2023. But gas prices in the second half of 2024 will be higher than they were in both the first six months of this year and in the back half of 2023, and prices will continue to rise in 2025. The spot price at the Henry Hub will average $3.29/mmBtu in 2025, EIA projected.
Natural gas-fired generation is expected to inch up by 1.4pc from a year earlier to 1,719.4bn kWh in 2024 but then slide below 2023 levels to 1,695.3bn next year, as the higher prices suppress demand for gas.
EIA said overall US electricity generation was 5pc higher in the first half of 2024 than the same period last year as a result of higher-than-normal temperatures in June and rising demand from some businesses. The agency expects electric power dispatch in the second half of this year to be 2pc higher than in the same period of 2023, and for renewable power to have the greatest rate of growth during that time.
Solar power is forecast to be 121.4bn kWh in the second half of this year, which would be 42pc higher than a year earlier. Wind generation is expected to rise by 12bn kWh, or 6pc, during this time to 208.7bn kWh.
The greater solar and wind generation is at least partly because of more projects coming on line. EIA expects the US to have 127.3GW of solar generating capacity and 155.2GW of wind by the end of this year, compared with 90.2GW and 147.6GW, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Coal generating capacity is expected to continue to slip, to 174.3GW in by the end of this year from 177.1GW in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to EIA. Coal's portion of the nation's generating capacity mix will then drop more sharply in 2025 to 162GW as coal-fired plant retirements start to accelerate.
The higher outlook for coal generation this year led EIA to raise its expectations for electric power coal consumption by 3.8pc from the agency's June outlook, to 395.5mn short tons (358.8mn metric tonnes) in 2024. That also would be higher than the 387.2mn st consumed in 2023.
But US coal production is still expected to fall by 12pc this year to 509.7mn st this year.
US thermal coal exports are expected to rise to 53mn st this year and to 55mn st in 2025 from 48.5mn st in 2023. EIA forecast metallurgical coal exports will be about 49mn st in 2024 and 49.2mn st in 2025 compared with 51.3mn st last year.
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Cliffs to buy Canadian steelmaker Stelco
Cliffs to buy Canadian steelmaker Stelco
Houston, 15 July (Argus) — US integrated steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs will acquire Canadian integrated steelmaker Stelco in a cash and stock deal. The acquisition of Stelco, an independent steelmaker in Hamilton, Ontario, was announced by both companies this morning. Stelco shareholders will receive C$60/share ($44/share) of Stelco common stock and 0.454 shares of Cliffs common stock, or $C10/share of Stelco common stock. The transaction is valued at C$3.4bn ($2.5bn) and the deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a news release. Stelco will maintain its headquarters in Hamilton, and capital investments of at least C$60mn will be made over the next three years. Stelco will aim to increase production from current levels and will operate as a wholly-owned subsidiary. In its news release, Cliffs said the purchase of Stelco will double Cliffs' exposure to the flat-rolled spot market, adding that Stelco's primary customer base is service centers buying hot-rolled coil (HRC) products. Stelco shipped 636,000 short tons (st) of steel products in the first quarter, of which 74pc was HRC, according to a quarterly report. Cliffs already operates seven tooling and stamping plants in Canada and a scrap yard run by its Ferrous Processing and Trading Company (FPT), all located in Ontario, according to the company. The head of the United Steelworkers (USW) union, David McCall, is said to support the transaction. Cliffs' move to buy Stelco comes nearly a year after Cliffs began its failed bid to purchase steelmaking competitor US Steel. Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel is now in the midst of negotiating the $15bn purchase of US Steel, a deal that has been the subject of public political hand wringing and open dispute among the executives of Cleveland-Cliffs, US Steel, Nippon Steel and the USW. By Rye Druzin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India, SE Asia demand lift Indonesian May coal exports
India, SE Asia demand lift Indonesian May coal exports
Singapore, 15 July (Argus) — Indonesian coal exports rose in May from a year earlier, led by higher demand from India and southeast Asia. The country exported 46.27mn t of coal in May, up by 6.6pc from a year earlier and by 3.9pc from April , customs data show. The data include all types of coal, such as thermal and coking coal. Indonesia exported about 222mn t of coal in January-May, up from 212mn t a year earlier. The country could export 532.59mn t this year if the current production run rate of 44.37mn t/month is maintained over the next seven months, according to Argus calculations based on customs data. Indonesia exported 521.10mn t last year. The year-on-year increase in May exports was supported mainly by higher demand from India, the world's second-largest coal importer, as utilities lifted their import purchases to replenish stocks for the summer season. Shipments to India in May rose by about 19pc on the year to 10.1mn t, according to the data, although exports slipped from 11.34mn t in April. The steady growth in Indian coal-fired generation, which hit an all-time high in May, continued to support demand for imported coal. The country's overall coal-fired generation, which meets most of the country's power requirements, rose to 119.53TWh, from 106.03TWh a year earlier, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority. Coal-fired generation in May was also higher than 116.5TWh in April, supported by increased power consumption caused by higher air-conditioning usage during the summer heatwaves. Indonesian exports also rose to cater for greater demand from southeast Asia. Exports to the region in May rose by 15.5pc on the year and by 1.5pc from April to 11.19mn t. This was led by a steady rise in exports to Vietnam, where shipments grew by 47pc on the year and by about 17pc on the month to 3.34mn t in May. Demand was led by utilities as coal-fired generation reached a probable record high of 17.08TWh in May, as per Argus calculations based on data from state-owned utility EVN. Vietnamese coal imports reached 6.50mn t in May , up from 4.97mn t a year earlier and from 5.90mn t in April, provisional customs data show. Shipments to China, the world's largest coal importer, accounted for nearly 40pc of Indonesian exports at 18.44mn t, down from 18.82mn t a year earlier but up from 15.57mn t in April. The year-on-year decline was caused by Chinese utilities being less aggressive this year in purchasing seaborne cargoes because of subdued thermal power generation. China's thermal power generation, which mainly uses coal, fell to 454TWh in May from 471TWh a year earlier and 459TWh in April, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. China's imports of thermal coal — including non-coking bituminous coal, sub-bituminous coal and lignite — totalled 32.7mn t, down from 31.4mn t a year earlier and from 32.9mn t in April, Chinese customs data show. Output rises A rise in Indonesian coal production supported higher exports in January-May. Output during the period rose to 334mn t, from 314mn t a year earlier, according to data from the country's energy ministry, ESDM. But output in June may have eased on the year to 54mn t, taking the year-to-date tally to about 388mn t, up by 2.1pc from a year earlier. The data will probably be revised, as output is frequently reviewed in Indonesia because of a lag in some producers' reporting. Indonesian output could face pressure from heavy rains in parts of the key coal-producing Kalimantan region, while production cutbacks could also affect overall production. Some coal producers could trim output in response to ongoing low prices in the international market. Argus on 12 July assessed Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal at $52.07/t fob Kalimantan, the lowest level since mid-September 2023. The price is down sharply from the 2023 peak of $90.41/t in January last year. Lower output could dent the export trajectory. Coal exports in June were estimated at 39.82mn t, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler. Exports in June last year stood at 39.02mn t, according to customs data, and at 38.72mn t, per Kpler's estimates. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Indonesian coal exports mn t Indonesia coal exports by destination, Jan-May mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Snowy, Lochard ink Iona gas storage deal
Australia’s Snowy, Lochard ink Iona gas storage deal
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Japan’s Erex cuts biomass-fired power output in June
Japan’s Erex cuts biomass-fired power output in June
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