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Venezuela opposition harassment builds before elections

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products, Petroleum coke
  • 10/07/24

The Venezuelan government under President Nicolas Maduro continues to threaten and harass opposition candidates ahead of 28 July national elections, where it trails in polls by as much as 60 percentage points.

Since late June dozens of opposition campaign workers have been arrested under unclear charges, with many of them being released, according to figures compiled by non-governmental organisation (NGO) Acceso a la Justicia.

A motorcade for opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado, who has been blocked from registering for the election, was stopped by police in Trujillo state in late June as well. Machado was detained for about an hour but said she was not told why she was held.

Last week Unitary Platform party (PUD) presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez said he was harassed by government workers when boarding a flight on nationally-owned airline Conviasa, who blamed him for the imposition of US sanctions. In a webcast after the incident he said he received a letter from airline employees explaining how they are directed to harass the opposition ahead of time, using government-approved scripts.

On Monday, attorney general Tarek William Saab ratcheted-up tensions even further, claiming in a televised address that the political opposition was trying to hire right-wing paramilitaries in Colombia to assassinate Maduro and attack power infrastructure in Zulia state.

The harassment comes as national polls continue to show Maduro trailing Gonzalez by double-digits. A new poll released Wednesday by Meganalisis has Gonzalez garnering nearly 72pc of the votes to about 12pc for Maduro.

The opposition and Venezuelan human rights NGO Laboratorio de Paz say the tactics violate the Barbados-Qatar agreements Maduro signed with PUD and the US to insure a partial lifting of oil sanctions in exchange of "free and fair" elections. The US has since reimposed sanctions. Maduro has already denied the right to vote to 5mn voting-age Venezuelans living abroad and disinvited the EU's electoral observation team for the elections.


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16/04/25

Opec+ overproducers issue new compensation plans

Opec+ overproducers issue new compensation plans

Dubai, 16 April (Argus) — Seven of the eight Opec+ members that began a gradual unwinding of a combined 2.2mn b/d output cut this month have submitted updated schedules for how they plan to compensate for producing above their respective quotas since the start of 2024. The schedules, released by the Opec secretariat today, show Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia are planning to produce around 305,000 b/d below their combined production targets on average from April through June 2026 ( see table ). This is to compensate for exceeding their production targets by a cumulative 4.573mn b/d between January 2024 and March 2025, the secretariat said. This figure does not represent a monthly average, but rather the sum of the monthly amount by which the overproducers surpassed their respective output ceilings in this period. It works out to an average monthly overproduction of 305,000 b/d. Algeria is the only country in the group of eight that did not overproduce in that stretch, and therefore does not have to compensate. The previous schedule , which was published in the third week of March, envisaged the seven producing around 263,000 b/d below their combined targets on average from March through June 2026. That was to clear 4.203mn b/d of cumulative overproduction between January 2024 and February 2025, or 300,000 b/d on average per month over that period. This latest schedule factors in the decision by these seven countries, and Algeria, earlier this month to speed up the return of a 2.2mn b/d cut by lifting the group's overall production target in May by 411,000 b/d ꟷ three times more than it had originally planned. If implemented fully these compensation cuts should at least largely offset much of the production increases that would be allowed by the Opec+ group of eight's planned unwind through to the second half of 2026. At most, the compensation cuts would more than offset the planned increases for some months, including for this month. But with serial over-producers Iraq and Kazakhstan responsible for delivering the biggest chunk of these compensatory cuts through to the middle of next year, there is no guarantee of full implementation. By Nader Itayim Opec+ overproduction compensation plan* b/d Month Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Kazakhstan Oman Russia Total Apr-25 120 8 15 5 63 5 6 222 May-25 140 15 0 10 116 12 85 378 Jun-25 140 23 10 132 15 111 431 Jul-25 135 30 10 126 17 137 455 Aug-25 130 38 10 141 19 163 501 Sep-25 135 37 10 135 14 189 520 Oct-25 135 10 160 15 320 Nov-25 135 20 114 269 Dec-25 130 20 69 219 Jan-26 125 33 49 207 Feb-26 125 33 38 196 Mar-26 124 33 40 197 Apr-26 120 57 38 215 May-26 120 62 42 224 Jun-26 120 63 36 219 Average reduction 305 *monthly reduction pledge in addition to existing targets Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cyclone cuts Australian refiner Ampol's 1Q output


16/04/25
16/04/25

Cyclone cuts Australian refiner Ampol's 1Q output

Sydney, 16 April (Argus) — Australian refiner and fuel retailer Ampol's 109,000 b/d Lytton refinery production dropped on the quarter in January-March, and margins remained low on the year, partly because of Cyclone Alfred and a weak global refining market. Ampol shut Lytton for 10 days to secure the facility before Cyclone Alfred hit mainland Australia on 8 March, damaging the roof of a crude tank at the facility, leading to demurrage costs for the firm. Lytton's production dropped by 15pc on the quarter to 91,000 b/d from 108,000 b/d in October-December and dropped by 6pc from a year earlier . Total sales at Ampol dropped by 7pc on the quarter to 429,000 b/d, because of ample market supply, which limited short-term physical sales, the firm said. Fellow Australian refiner Viva Energy also experienced low fuel sales in the January-March quarter, because of adverse weather events in January, likely weighing on consumption . Total oil product sales across Australia dipped by 4pc in the month to 1mn b/d in February to 1.04mn b/d in January. Ampol's Lytton Refinery Margin (LRM) was up by 24pc on the quarter to $6.07/bl, but was down by 49pc from the year-earlier figure. Ampol flagged that it could be eligible for government support , under the Fuel Security Services Payment program (FSSP), if their margins do not recover for the remainder of the April-June quarter. Refiners become eligible for the FSSP when margin markers fall to A$10.20/bl ($6.49/bl), with a maximum of A1.8¢/litre available when the marker drops to a floor of A$7.30/bl. Ampol's margin for January-March quarter was A$9.57/b. The programme started in July 2021 to protect Australian refiners in a weak global refining market, and Australian refiner Viva Energy applied for the FSSP in their July-September quarter in 2024. By Grace Dudley Ampol Results (b/d) Jan-Mar '25 Oct-Dec '24 Jan-Mar '24 y-o-y % ± q-o-q % ± Refining intake 90,725 107,761 96,510 -6 -15 Sales volumes 429,367 523,641 463,750 -7 -18 LRM ($/bl) 6.1 4.6 11.8 -49 24 Source: Ampol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty


15/04/25
15/04/25

United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty

Houston, 15 April (Argus) — United Airlines plans to decrease the number of flights it operates in the third quarter because of lower passenger numbers and economic uncertainties. The US-based air carrier said that it will be removing four percentage points of scheduled domestic capacity in the third quarter of 2025 and expects to retire 21 aircraft earlier than previously planned. Global economic uncertainty prompted the company to provide two scenarios for for its financial results for 2025 — one based on the US economy remaining weaker but stable, and the other for the US entering a recession. In the stable scenario, assuming current fuel price outlooks, the company expects a $11.50-$13.50 per share profit. Under the recessionary scenario profits would be in the $7-9/share range. Despite the possibility of slower busines, the airline plans to expand its investments at Chicago O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, with six additional gates and plans to expand at San Francisco's international airport as well. 1Q results In the first quarter domestic passenger load factor — a measurement of capacity utilization — declined by 3.4 percentage points to 80.3pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. United's revenue passenger miles (RPM) — a measurement of total miles flown by paying passengers — increased by 3.6pc to 59.5bn miles in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — rose by 4.9pc to 75.2bn miles in the quarter. United's average fuel cost decreased by 12.2pc to $2.53/USG during the first quarter. The airline consumed 4.1pc more fuel in the quarter. Total operating expenses rose by 1.3pc to $12.6bn in the quarter while total operating revenue increased by 5.4pc to $13.2bn. The airline reported $387mn profit in the first quarter, up from a $124mn loss reported a year earlier. By Hunter Fite Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Pemex road fuel inventories down in March


15/04/25
15/04/25

Pemex road fuel inventories down in March

Mexico City, 15 April (Argus) — Mexican state-owned Pemex's road fuel inventories fell by 17pc in March from a year earlier, driven by lower regular and premium gasoline stocks. Pemex's regular gasoline, premium gasoline and diesel inventories at its 81 port and inland terminals decreased to 8mn bl in March, down from 9.6mn bl in March 2024, according to a Pemex transparency response to an Argus request. The company stored on average 5,350 bl of gasoline and 3,800 bl of ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) at its Olmeca terminal in Dos Bocas in March. In the past, the energy ministry published Mexico's total fuel inventories — Pemex and non-Pemex — with a delay of up to two months, but it has not updated the data since late 2023. Pemex increased its gasoline and diesel production in February by 5pc from the same month a year prior, but imports dropped sharply by 30pc year-over-year to roughly 362,000 b/d. Regular gasoline inventories fell by 19pc to 4.1mn bl in March from a year earlier, despite higher domestic output, likely because of lower imports. Diesel stocks dropped by 10pc to 2.8mn bl from the previous year, while premium gasoline inventories sank by 23pc to 1.1mn bl, tracking an increase in premium gasoline demand as well as lower imports. Jet fuel stocks down Meanwhile, jet fuel inventories fell by 12pc to 368,800 bl in March from the prior year, Pemex data requested by Argus show. Pemex's jet fuel production dropped by 21pc to roughly 34,000 b/d in February from the same month a year earlier, while domestic sales decreased by 4pc to about 95,000 b/d in the same period. Jet fuel imports also declined, falling by 4pc to 55,000 b/d in February from the previous year. Pemex's March gasoline and diesel inventories were just over nine days' worth of the company's sales so far in 2025. Its jet fuel inventories were just under four days' worth. Mexico's minimum fuel storage policy — in effect since July 2020 — requires fuel sellers to have at least five days' worth of sales on hand for gasoline and diesel, and three days' worth of sales for jet fuel. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast


15/04/25
15/04/25

IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast

London, 15 April (Argus) — The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d. The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year. Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries. Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed. The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d. OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates. In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter. The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said. Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India. It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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