Nigeria-Raffinerie könnte deutsche Benzinpreise senken
Noch diesen Monat soll eine Raffinerie in Nigeria die Produktion von Benzin in bisher für die Region unbekannten Ausmaßen aufnehmen. Dies kann zu einem Benzinüberangebot in Deutschland führen, da Nigeria bisher eines der Hauptabsatzländer für deutsches Benzin war.
Die Dangote-Gruppe hat angekündigt, an ihrer gleichnamigen Raffinerie (650.000 bl/Tag) im nigerianischen Lekki, Mitte Juli einen Reformer in Betrieb zu nehmen, welcher es der Raffinerie ermöglichen wird, selbst Benzin zu produzieren. Die Raffinerie ist gemessen an der täglichen Verarbeitungskapazität die siebtgrößte weltweit und die größte Raffinerie mit nur einer Rohöldestillationskolonne. Aliko Dangote, Vorstandsvorsitzender der Betreibergesellschaft, erklärte im Mai, dass die Raffinerie 57 Mio. Liter Benzin pro Tag produzieren werde; umgerechnet also etwa 15,4 Mio. t pro Jahr. Dies werde ausreichen, Nigerias gesamten Benzinbedarf zu decken und genug Überschuss zu produzieren, um Exporte zu ermöglichen, so Dangote.
Nach Einschätzung von Argus wirddie Raffinerie wahrscheinlich erst in 2025 eine Auslastung von durchschnittlich etwa 80 % erreichen können. Dies entspräche einer jährlichen Benzinproduktion von etwa 12,9 Mio. t Benzin. Zum Vergleich: Deutschland exportierte im Jahr 2023 etwa 3,4 Mio. t. Argus geht davon aus, dass der Benzinbedarf in Nigeria weiter steigen wird und Importe wieder wichtiger werden - kurz- und mittelfristig wird der Importbedarf aber massiv abnehmen. Insgesamt ist es unwahrscheinlich, dass Nigerias Importbedarf in den nächsten 15 Jahren wieder das Niveau von vor Inbetriebnahme der Raffinerie erreichen wird.
Dadurch könnte Nigeria als Abnehmer für deutsches Benzin enorm an Relevanz verlieren. Dies kann zu Mengendruck in Deutschland führen und die Preise für Benzin senken. Dem wirkt entgegen, dass sich die Benzinproduktion in Deutschland im Jahr 2025 verringern wird: BP hat angekündigt, eine der drei Produktionslinien der Raffinerie Gelsenkirchen (258.000 bl/Tag) stillzulegen, während Shell ein Ende der Rohölverarbeitung im Werk Wesseling (147.000 bl/Tag) angekündigt hat. Jedoch wird Deutschland voraussichtlich auch nach dem Wegfall dieser Kapazitäten weiterhin mehr Benzin produzieren, als im Inland verbraucht wird.
Spezifisch für Deutschland wird der Mengendruck auch dadurch erhöht, dass ein Großteil der europäischen Staaten mittlerweile E10 statt E5 als Benzin-Standard verwenden. Dies schränkt die Absatzmöglichkeiten auf dem europäischen Kontinent für deutsche Exporteure stark ein.
Wie stark sich der zu erwartende Mengendruck auf die Benzinpreise im Inland auswirkt, ist unklar, da dies auch vom Rohölpreis abhängt. Die Raffineriemargen für Benzin werden jedoch mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit schrumpfen, was die Rentabilität der Benzinproduktion für Betreiber senkt. Hierzu passt auch, dass einige Anteilseigner deutscher Raffinerien sich aktuell von ihren Beteiligungen trennen wollen. Insbesondere Anteilseigner der Raffinerien in Karlsruhe (310.000 bl/Tag) und Seefeld (230.000 bl/Tag), die verhältnismäßig viel Benzin produzieren, befinden sich in Verkaufsgesprächen.
Der Wegfall Nigerias als Export-Ventil wird auch im Handelszentrum Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerpen (ARA) zu Mengendruck führen, da ARA selbst ein produktionsstarker Raffineriestandort und Heimat Europas größter Raffinerie im niederländischen Pernis (404.000 bl/Tag) ist. Dies könnte den Überschuss an Benzin in Deutschland zusätzlich erhöhen, da der Großteil der deutschen Benzinexporte über ARA erfolgt. Ist dort genug Produkt vorhanden, sinkt der Anreiz Benzin aus Deutschland nach ARA zu exportieren.
Wie relevant Nigeria bisher als Abnehmer europäischen und somit auch deutschen Benzins war, zeigen Daten von Vortexa: Das westafrikanische Land hat zwischen dem 1. Juli 2023 und dem 30. Juni 2024 über 6,7 Mio. t Benzin aus Europa importiert, rund 4,4 Mio. t davon allein über ARA (siehe Grafik). Nigeria ist damit das wichtigste Exportziel für Benzin aus ARA.
Die Bundesrepublik produziert in der Regel mehr Benzin als im Inland verbraucht wird und ist dementsprechend auf den Export des Kraftstoffs angewiesen. Zwischen 2015 und 2023 exportierte Deutschland im Durchschnitt knapp über 3 Mio. t Benzin pro Jahr (siehe Grafik). Wohin diese Mengen zukünftig fließen werden, wenn der Bedarf in Westafrika einbricht, ist unklar.
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Sonatrach restarts Skikda bitumen plant after 4-yr halt
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Port Houston fully reopens, others to follow
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