US June inflation slows to 1-year low of 3pc

Spanish Market: Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
11/07/24

US inflation slowed in June to the lowest in a year while core inflation hit a more than three-year low, signs of easing price pressures that may prompt Federal Reserve policymakers to begin cutting borrowing costs in the fall.

The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual 3pc in June, lower than economists' estimates for a 3.1pc reading, from 3.3pc in May and 3.4pc in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.3pc in June, the lowest since April 2021, and slowing from 3.4pc in May.

The energy index rose by an annual 1pc in June, down from 3.7pc in May, while the gasoline index contracted by 2.5pc in June compared with a 2.2pc gain in May. Energy services rose by an annual 4.3pc, slowing from 4.7pc the prior month.

After the report, the CME's FedWatch tool signaled an 81pc probability that the Fed will cut its target rate by a quarter point in September from near 70pc odds Wednesday. Probabilities of three quarter point cuts by December rose to 38pc today from 26pc the prior day.

Food costs rose by 2.2pc in June from 2.1pc the prior month. Shelter rose by 5.2pc from 5.4pc the prior month. Transportation services rose by 9.4pc in June following a 10.5pc gain the prior month. Airline fares fell by 5.1pc in June after a 5.9pc decline.

Headline inflation had risen from 3.1pc in January to as high as 3.5pc in March as economic data, especially job gains, had come in stronger than expected. That had prompted the Federal Reserve to delay widely expected rate cuts as it said it needed "greater confidence" that inflation was on a "sustained" path towards its 2pc target.

The Fed hiked its target rate to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc in July 2023 and has kept it there since to rein in inflation that hit a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. The Fed, in its latest policy meeting last month, penciled in one likely quarter point cut this year, down from three penciled in last March.

CPI contracted by a seasonally adjusted 0.1pc in June from the prior month, after a flat reading in May, a 0.3pc monthly gain in April and 0.4pc gains in February and Marhc. Core CPI was up by 0.1pc for the month after a monthly gain of 0.2pc in May.

By Bob Willis

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

04/04/25

Egyptian rebar clears EU customs as merchant bar

London, 4 April (Argus) — Egyptian rebar has cleared at the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda under a product code that sits under a different EU quota category, a mill test certificate sent to rebar buyers and obtained by Argus shows. The documentation shows a parcel of steel products with the properties and specifications of rebar registered under HS code 722830, which is for hot-rolled bar, not rebar. The material is supplied by an Egyptian steel mill, and the mill test certificate obtained by Argus contains the assertion "HS code for rebar is: 72 28 30 69 00", followed by the signature of a senior quality engineer. The mill's website indicates it produces rebar, rebar in spools and rebar in coil, which fall respectively under the rebar and wire rod EU import quotas. Hot-rolled bar under the HS code 72283069 falls under category 12 for "non-alloy and other alloy merchant bars and light sections", for which there is currently no import restriction on Egyptian material. A trading company is thought to have discharged at least 17,000t of rebar and rebar in coils at Klaipeda on 28 March, after loading at the Egyptian port of Alexandria on 24 February. But it is not clear how much material in total has passed through customs or under which HS codes. As of 1 April, the EU's Egyptian rebar quota is capped at about 27,500t, after previously having had no limitation within the "other countries" allocation of about 138,000t. Some market participants estimated that there were about 80,000t of Egyptian rebar waiting to clear at EU ports on 1 April, but only about 30,000t cleared under the rebar quota on the first day, according to market participants, meaning duties paid by companies clearing material on that day will not be as high as feared. Trade data also show that Bulgaria imported 17,000t of hot-rolled bar from Egypt under HS 72283069 in January 2025, nearly three times as much as the whole EU imported in the full year of 2024 or 2023, a sign that companies are increasingly keen to seek ways around EU safeguards as they tighten. By Brendan Kjellberg-Motton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

04/04/25

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK considers import tariffs on US oil products

04/04/25

UK considers import tariffs on US oil products

London, 4 April (Argus) — The UK government has included refined oil products from the US in a list of goods that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. The government said it was considering "potential tariff measures on US goods, should this be deemed necessary" in response to a 10pc US import tariff on UK goods and services — excluding energy — due to take effect on 5 April. The consultation will last until 1 May. Light oils, gasoils, jet fuel, fuel oils, lubricants and bitumen all feature in the list of products possibly subject to retaliatory tariffs. The UK could be particularly exposed to any tariff impact on US middle distillate imports in the event of retaliation. The UK sourced over a quarter of its 14.37mn t of 10ppm diesel and gasoil from the US last year, according to Vortexa, while 3pc of its 10.15mn t of jet and kerosine imports were sourced from the US. It is not clear what tariff rate the UK is targeting in its potential retaliation. For other oil products, any potential import tariff impact would become more muted as US refined product imports become less significant. The UK received just 6pc of its 1.92mn t total fuel oil imports from the US last year, while the UK was the fourth largest gasoline supplier to the US and received none of the product from its trade partner. European refined product values have collapsed as a result of the escalating trade war which saw China retaliate today against the US' latest tariff action. Eurobob non-oxy gasoline barge prices dropped by 4pc to $700.75/t on 3 April at a time when trading activity typically picks up ahead of the US summer driving season. Indicated non-oxy barge values were set to drop further in the trading session today. The EU is similarly preparing countermeasures against US import tariffs, which Washington set at 20pc from 9 April in addition to existing rates. Ice gasoil futures had dropped by 10pc since President Trump announced the new tariff regime on 2 April to $615.75/t by the close today. Ice gasoil futures are used as the pricing basis against which diesel, gasoil and jet fuel grades are assessed in the European middle distillates markets. European refined products market participants have pointed to a darker global economic outlook triggered by the US import tariffs as the driving force behind the drop-off in European product values. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Silicon, ferro-silicon hit by US tariffs

04/04/25

Silicon, ferro-silicon hit by US tariffs

London, 4 April (Argus) — Silicon and ferro-silicon prices in the US are likely to surge because of steep tariffs on imports announced this week, while prices in Europe might fall as countries hit by high tariffs redirect material to the EU. The tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on 2 April exempted a number of minor metals and ferro-alloys, listed in Annex II of the executive order, but ferro-silicon and silicon metal of less than 99.99pc purity were not among the exemptions. The US steel industry is a major consumer of imported silicon products. The tariffs are the second major US trade announcement on ferro-silicon in two weeks after the International Trade Administration (ITA) determined anti-dumping duty rates against ferro-silicon imports from Brazil, Malaysia and Kazakhstan on 25 March. A final decision on anti-dumping duties is due on 12 May, and it remains to be seen how the new tariffs will impact the ITA's decision. Several major silicon and ferro-silicon producing countries are now subject to Trump's adjusted reciprocal tariffs, above the 10pc applied to all imports. Vietnam now has one of the highest tariff burdens at 46pc, Kazakhstan is subject to 27pc and Malaysia to 24pc. The countries have been major suppliers of silicon products to the US. In 2024, the US imported 27,084t of ferro-silicon from Malaysia, 13,119t from Vietnam and 10,262t from Kazakhstan. Silicon and ferro-silicon producer Ferroglobe, which has operations in the US, Canada and Europe, and which petitioned for the anti-dumping duties before the ITA, says it is too early to predict the full impact of the tariffs. "As a vertically integrated local producer in both the US and the EU, we believe that Ferroglobe will benefit from a more level playing field in both markets," the producer said. But sellers of heavily-tariffed material have taken immediate steps to reduce their exposure. "I just cancelled a lot of vessels from Vietnam because you cannot pay a 46pc tariff," a trader said on Thursday. Countries with lower tariffs stand to benefit if prices surge. A producer in one such country told Argus he expects his company's margins and market share in the US to increase. Brazil is subject to only a 10pc tariff, making Brazilian producers now among the most affordable for the US market. The US imported 59,971t of silicon metal and 33,182t of ferro-silicon from Brazil in 2024, comprising 40pc and 21pc of total silicon and ferro-silicon imports, respectively. Iceland is also subject to the base 10pc tariff, although for silicon metal there is a pre-existing anti-dumping duty on PCC BakkiSilicon at 47.54pc, and 37.83pc on all other sales from Iceland. Norway's tariff was set at 16pc, making it more competitive than the EU, which is subject to 20pc. The US imported 9pc of its silicon metal from Norway in 2024. Norwegian silicon and ferro-silicon producer Elkem, which exports silicon-based products to the US from Canada, Paraguay, Iceland and Norway, told Argus the company will be increasing prices on all products going to the US. "Given that the US is a net importer of our products, we expect prices in the US to increase by more than the raised tariffs on Elkem's products," the company said. US exports might be redirected to EU The European ferro-silicon market has been rattled by concerns of dumping in Europe. Many expect more affordable material from Kazakhstan, Vietnam and Malaysia to flood the European market because of trade diversions from the US. A European producer expects large quantities of ferro-silicon to flood the market. "I am very afraid that Kazakhstan especially can ship material to Europe and will take the risk," he said. The EU has said it will take steps to prevent dumping of cheap goods in Europe. But with the European steel industry under pressure from the tariffs, the EU might hesitate to take measures that could increase costs for the steel sector. EU safeguard investigation could face delays The European ferro-silicon and silicon industries have already struggled to compete with affordable imports from third-country competitors with lower production costs. On 19 December, the European Commission announced a safeguard investigation on imports of silicon, ferro-silicon and manganese alloys. Many market participants expected a decision on trade protection measures in April. Some traders have held on to stock in the hope of prices increasing after the announcement. But now producers, traders and consumers told Argus this week that they expect any decision on safeguarding the ferro-alloy industry to be delayed until tariff negotiations have been concluded. Some planned meetings on the measures have been cancelled, the producer heard, as priorities have shifted. A trader with stocks in Europe told Argus that if he hears confirmation that the safeguard announcement will be delayed, he and other traders will look to sell material. "Prices are only inflamed because of the safeguarding," the trader said. "If it's a six-month delay, prices might stay firm, but if it's a year, we can't wait." By Maeve Flaherty Additional reporting from Samuel Wood Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US adds 228,000 jobs in March: BLS

04/04/25

US adds 228,000 jobs in March: BLS

Houston, 4 April (Argus) — The US added a more-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March, showing hiring was picking up last month just as the new US administration began mass federal firings and announced tariffs on trading partners. Economists surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast job gains of 135,000 for March. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2pc in March from 4.1pc the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Job gains in February were revised lower by 34,000 to 117,000 jobs. The unexpectedly strong job report comes amid mounting recession fears on the back of President Donald Trump's volley of trade tariffs unveiled this week and mass federal layoffs begun over the past month, which have yet to appear in the Labor surveys. US and global stocks have tumbled on the tariff news. As of 11am ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 43pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 100pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Job gains averaged 159,000 over the 12 months prior to March. Federal government employment declined by 4,000 jobs in March following losses of 11,000 jobs in February. Employees on paid leave or receiving severance pay are counted as employed, the BLS said, so most of last month's announced federal job cuts do not show up in the data. Some federal job cuts have been reversed by court orders. Retail trade added 24,000 jobs, while transportation and warehousing added 23,000 jobs. Construction added 13,000 jobs and manufacturing added 1,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality jobs grew by 43,000 and health care and social assistance added 78,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by an annual 3.8pc, slowing from 4pc the prior month. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more