Mexico's economic growth outlook for this year was revised down to 2pc from 2.1pc estimated in June amid fresh uncertainty coming from an assassination attempt on former US president Donald Trump this weekend, domestic financial association IMEF said.
"It increases the uncertainty from here out," said Mario Correa, vice president for economic studies at IMEF. "This adds to an already agitated geopolitical scenario with [the war in] Ukraine among existing strains on energy prices and supply chains," he said.
IMEF has cut Mexico's GDP forecast for a fourth consecutive month from the 2.4pc estimated in March.
IMEF's inflation projection for 2024 remains at 4.3pc, but it said the country's central bank was more likely to hold the benchmark interest rate higher for longer, lowering it from the current 11pc to 10.5pc by year-end, rather than to 10.25pc in the previous survey.
Correa says Mexico's government can expect greater pressure to make concessions on key negotiations with the US should Trump win the elections in November, as many polls show Trump has gotten a boost since the assassination attempt.
"We are expecting a much more hardened stance in negotiations regarding the USMCA [set for revision in 2026] under Trump and a tougher position on nearshoring," said Correa.
Looking at 2025, IMEF reduced the GDP growth outlook for a second consecutive month to 1.6pc from 1.7p. The inflation outlook for 2025 remains unchanged at 3.8pc.
