Iraq begins importing Turkish power to cut crude burn

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Electricity
22/07/24

Iraq's prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on Sunday inaugurated a power transmission line connecting the country's northern region with Turkey, one of several steps Baghdad is taking to tackle its gruelling electricty outages and to reduce its dependence on burning crude in its power plants.

The 115km line connects to a power station west of Mosul and will supply 300MW to the northern provinces of Nineveh, Salahuddin and Kirkuk during peak loads. Delayed for two decades, the project is part of Iraq's strategy to connect to neighbouring grids and "integrate into the regional energy system, allowing for diversity and exchange under various peak load conditions", al-Sudani said.

Iraq's electricity minister Ziad Ali Fadel clarified today that the agreement stipulates "Turkey supplies Iraq with 300MW during summer season, while Iraq supplies Turkey with 150MW during the remainder of the year from the surplus of its electricity production".

Iraq sits on massive oil reserves and is Opec's second-largest producer but it remains heavily reliant on electricity and gas imports from neighbouring countries. The US-led military invasion in 2003, the emergence of the Islamic State and record levels of corruption have all contributed to the underdevelopment of vital infrastructure in Iraq. Power outages during the summer have been a source of political turmoil often causing massive protests.

Data provided by Iraq's oil ministry indicate the country burned an average of 120,000 b/d of crude in its power plants in the first half of this year. Figures from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) suggest Iraq's direct crude burn averaged 185,000 b/d in 2023.

Earlier this year, Iraq agreed a five-year gas supply agreement with Iran for up to 50mn m³/d. Baghdad also began benefitting from 40MW of electricity supply from Jordan through a newly-established power line that became operational at the beginning of April. And it aims to "complete the connection with the Gulf Co-operation Council electric grid by the end of this year", al-Sudani said.

Iraq's oil ministry said the plan is to reduce crude burn at its power stations. Baghdad said the measures will also help it to adhere to its Opec+ crude production commitments. Iraq has exceeded its Opec+ output target every month this year, and as the group's least compliant member it agreed in May to make additional cuts to compensate for prior overproduction.

By Bachar Halabi

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14/01/25

Canada's tariff response may be ‘unprecedented’: Ford

Calgary, 14 January (Argus) — Tariffs threatened by president-elect Donald Trump against Canada will hurt the province of Ontario the most, the premier of the country's most populated province said this week, so all options must be considered should retaliation be required. "We have to use all the tools possible," said Ontario premier Doug Ford in 13 January press conference, less than one week before Trump's inauguration and the potential imposition of 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. "We might have to do things that are unprecedented," which could include withholding shipments of minerals, Ford said. Ontario accounts for about 40pc of Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) and is known for its manufacturing, automotive and critical mineral industries. Ford's position runs in contrast to comments made earlier by Alberta premier Danielle Smith that cutting off Canadian energy flows to the US is a non-starter and would not happen . "Well, that's Danielle Smith, she's speaking for Alberta, she's not speaking for the country," Ford said. "I'm speaking for Ontario, that's going to get hurt a lot more. They aren't going to go after the oil, they're coming after Ontario." "I want to ship him more critical minerals, I want to ship him more energy, but make no mistake about it, if they're coming full-tilt at us I won't hesitate to pull out every single tool we have until they can feel the pain," Ford said. "But that's the last thing I want to do." Smith met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida over the weekend, which was a welcome move by Ford, who said he has been working the phones calling American politicians daily. Even so, Canada's response needs to come from the federal government, which has so far been lacking, in Ford's view. "This is their jurisdiction," said Ford. "They need to come up with a strong plan. They need to be doing everything, every single day to make sure we avoid these tariffs." Premiers will meet with prime minister Justin Trudeau this week to strategize how to deal with potential tariffs. Trudeau said last week he planned to resign amid low polls and party infighting with a new leader to be chosen on 9 March. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariffs on Canada likely, oil cut-off not: Alberta

13/01/25

US tariffs on Canada likely, oil cut-off not: Alberta

Calgary, 13 January (Argus) — Tariffs threatened by the US against Canada will become a reality, according to the premier of oil-rich Alberta , but any retaliation will not entail cutting off energy exports. "They're likely to come in on January 20th," Alberta premier Danielle Smith said of the tariffs on Monday after she met with US president-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida over the weekend. "I haven't seen anything that suggests that he's changing course." Trump in late-November said he plans to impose a 25pc tariff against all imports from Canada, citing inadequate border controls and a US trade deficit. Canada has since pledged to spend more money on border security while Smith reckons Canada would have a deficit if not for energy trade. "We actually buy more goods and services from the US than they buy from us," Smith said in an online interview with reporters. "We actually have $58bn in a trade deficit with the Americans when you take energy out." Smith wanted assurances the US is still interested in buying Canadian oil and gas, with her province being the heart of the country's energy sector. "Oil and gas is going to be key for being able to get a breakthrough, once the tariffs do come in, in getting them off," said Smith. Canadian foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly said in a 12 January interview broadcast on CTV that the country could consider stopping the flow of Canadian energy in retaliation to tariffs. But Smith said that would not happen since the oil are owned by the province, not the federal government. "[The federal government] will have a national unity crisis on their hands at the same time as having a crisis with our US trade partners," said Smith. About 80pc of Canada's 5mn b/d of crude production is consumed by refineries in the US, with many in the Midcontinent having no practical alternative , according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). The region imported 2.7mn b/d of Canadian crude in October, the latest data point from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). "I hope cooler heads prevail," said Smith, adding that Trump seemed interested in buying more oil and gas. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Lula approves offshore wind law with vetoes

13/01/25

Lula approves offshore wind law with vetoes

Sao Paulo, 13 January (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva approved legislation that will clear the way to develop the offshore wind industry, while vetoing three items supporting fossil fuel-fired power projects. The new law establishes a regulatory framework for the sector, clearing the way for Brazil to hold its first auctions for offshore wind concessions. The law positions Brazil to become a leader in offshore wind development, according to Matheus Noronha, the head of offshore wind at the Brazilian wind power association Abeeolica. Amid strong lobbying from large energy consumers, industry associations and environmentalists, Lula vetoed three articles that had been tied to the bill. These articles would have mandated the construction of new gas-fired thermoelectric plants, extended power purchase agreements (PPAs) for coal plants until 2050 and required PPAs for small hydroelectric plants. Energy research firm PSR estimated that these three amendments would have raised annual electricity prices for consumers by 9pc by adding cost of around R22bn/yr ($3.6bn/yr) . Brazil is on the radar of wind power developers and companies have submitted over 100 projects with roughly 245GW of capacity to environmental watchdog Ibama for approval. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November

13/01/25

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November

Mexico City, 13 January (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production edged up 0.1pc in November, as gains in autos and other manufacturing offset weaker construction, national statistics agency Inegi said. Mexican bank Banorte described the monthly increase as "rather small," noting it followed a 1.1pc decline in October and was largely driven by base comparison effects. The bank added that the overall industrial outlook remained "fragile." Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), increased by 0.7pc in November, though it failed to fully recover from a 1.7pc drop in October. Transportation manufacturing, a key subsector accounting for 12pc of the sector, rose by 3.8pc after a steep 4.3pc decline the prior month. Despite recent volatility, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production in 2024, reaching 3.99mn units. Yet, automaker association AMIA warned of potential challenges in 2025 because of economic uncertainty, which could affect investment and demand. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, increased by 0.1pc in November following a 1.1pc decline in October. Growth was driven by a 41.4pc jump in mining-related services, while oil and gas output fell by 2.4pc, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 1.8pc in November after modest gains of 0.2pc in October and 1.1pc in September. As industry eyes potential policy shifts under US president-elect Donald Trump, Banorte projected a weak start to 2025 for Mexico's industrial output. But it expects momentum to build as government spending on priority infrastructure projects "moves more decisively." By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

AI may boom on gas power, then turn to nuclear

13/01/25

AI may boom on gas power, then turn to nuclear

New York, 13 January (Argus) — The first tranche of new US data centers coming on line this decade to run electricity-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) software will probably rely mostly on power generated by natural gas, while the nuclear renaissance hoped for by Big Tech comes later in the 2030s. Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook-parent Meta and Google-parent Alphabet want clean, reliable power as quickly as possible so they can be early movers in the development of AI, which is rapidly advancing and finding new user bases around the world. While these companies do not relish the optics of powering AI development with fossil fuels, gas-fired power is widely expected to fulfill most of the gap between current supply and future demand through at least 2030. Unlike wind and solar, gas can be relied upon for steady, baseload power, a necessary ingredient for always-on data centers. And crucially, unlike nuclear, gas-related infrastructure can be built out quickly. The most recent additions to the US nuclear fleet, Vogtle units 3 and 4 in Georgia, took 15 years to build and cost $30bn, double the expected time and cost. A few decommissioned nuclear reactors can be restarted, as Microsoft is paying to do with a unit of Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania. But this low-hanging fruit will be quickly exhausted. Questions around the meter While there is broad agreement that gas will power the AI data center boom through at least 2030, questions remain about what this rapid gas-fired power build-out will look like. Data center operators can secure power in two ways: wade through the long, arduous interconnection process through which new customers connect to the grid, or bypass the grid altogether and secure their own personal electricity supply through so-called "behind-the-meter" agreements. Many in the gas industry are betting tech companies' need for speed will force them to opt for the latter. "The data centers are not going to wait," Alan Armstrong, chief executive of Williams, the largest US gas pipeline company, told Argus in an interview. "They are going to go to states that allow you to go behind the meter." In this scenario, construction of an AI data center in a state like Louisiana, for instance, might accompany construction of a new intrastate pipeline connecting the state's prolific Haynesville gas field with a new gas-fired power plant. Intrastate pipelines bypass the federal oversight triggered by interstate pipeline construction, and new gas power plants only take 2-3 years to build, East Daley Analytics analyst Zachary Krause told Argus . Most of the incremental power needed to run AI data centers this decade will be generated by new gas plants, Krause said. Even ExxonMobil in December said it was in talks to provide "fully islanded" gas-fired power to AI data centers. It claimed it could even capture 90pc of the CO2 emissions from power generation, appeasing tech companies' climate ambitions. ExxonMobil's non-grid gas generation fleet is "independent of utility timelines, so they can be installed at a pace that other alternatives — including US nuclear — just can't match," ExxonMobil chief financial officer Kathy Mikells said. But connecting to the grid may offer better reliability and economics than behind-the-meter gas power. If an off-grid gas generator trips off line, for instance, an always-on data center without back-up generation depending on that facility would be in trouble. Grid connection also allows generators to sell excess power into the grid. For those reasons, most new data centers this decade will rely on the grid as their primary power source, Adam Robinson, research associate at consultancy Enverus, told Argus . Small modular future But if the 2020s become the decade of gas-powered AI, the 2030s may be when nuclear-powered AI gets its due. The long-awaited nuclear renaissance may come not from conventional reactors, but from next-generation small modular reactors (SMRs), which can theoretically be built much faster and cheaper. No US SMRs yet exist, but given the number of SMR start-ups with expected start dates before 2030, and money pouring into the sector from the likes of Google and Microsoft, at least one of these next-generation reactors should be operating by 2030, Adam Stein, director of nuclear energy innovation at research center Breakthrough Institute, told Argus . SMRs' smaller price tag relative to conventional 1 GW nuclear reactors may also accelerate their adoption, Stein said. "Not every utility needs a GW-scale plant of any kind, but they might need a 300 or 600MW plant," he said. "So the total addressable market is larger for SMRs." By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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