Latest Market News

Iraq begins importing Turkish power to cut crude burn

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Electricity
  • 22/07/24

Iraq's prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on Sunday inaugurated a power transmission line connecting the country's northern region with Turkey, one of several steps Baghdad is taking to tackle its gruelling electricty outages and to reduce its dependence on burning crude in its power plants.

The 115km line connects to a power station west of Mosul and will supply 300MW to the northern provinces of Nineveh, Salahuddin and Kirkuk during peak loads. Delayed for two decades, the project is part of Iraq's strategy to connect to neighbouring grids and "integrate into the regional energy system, allowing for diversity and exchange under various peak load conditions", al-Sudani said.

Iraq's electricity minister Ziad Ali Fadel clarified today that the agreement stipulates "Turkey supplies Iraq with 300MW during summer season, while Iraq supplies Turkey with 150MW during the remainder of the year from the surplus of its electricity production".

Iraq sits on massive oil reserves and is Opec's second-largest producer but it remains heavily reliant on electricity and gas imports from neighbouring countries. The US-led military invasion in 2003, the emergence of the Islamic State and record levels of corruption have all contributed to the underdevelopment of vital infrastructure in Iraq. Power outages during the summer have been a source of political turmoil often causing massive protests.

Data provided by Iraq's oil ministry indicate the country burned an average of 120,000 b/d of crude in its power plants in the first half of this year. Figures from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) suggest Iraq's direct crude burn averaged 185,000 b/d in 2023.

Earlier this year, Iraq agreed a five-year gas supply agreement with Iran for up to 50mn m³/d. Baghdad also began benefitting from 40MW of electricity supply from Jordan through a newly-established power line that became operational at the beginning of April. And it aims to "complete the connection with the Gulf Co-operation Council electric grid by the end of this year", al-Sudani said.

Iraq's oil ministry said the plan is to reduce crude burn at its power stations. Baghdad said the measures will also help it to adhere to its Opec+ crude production commitments. Iraq has exceeded its Opec+ output target every month this year, and as the group's least compliant member it agreed in May to make additional cuts to compensate for prior overproduction.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

03/12/24

German 2030 coal phase-out called into question

German 2030 coal phase-out called into question

London, 3 December (Argus) — Germany's coal phase-out targets are being reassessed owing to the likelihood of further delays to the passing of the power plant security act (KWSG), as well as decisions already taken on the future design of the electricity market. Germany has pledged to phase out coal and lignite-fired generation by 2038 at the latest, but energy ministry BMWK said an earlier, market-driven phase-out by 2030 is possible . Grid regulator Bnetza said 21GW of new gas-fired capacity — which should in the future be hydrogen-ready — would be needed by 2031 for a complete coal phase-out. Utility Leag said it does not see the current government changing the legal phase-out deadline. But "any further delay" to adding controllable replacement capacities would create an "urgent" situation, it said. And utility EnBW told Argus that it remains committed to phasing out coal by 2038 at the latest, while adding that "security of supply must not be jeopardised". At a transmission system operators' (TSO) forum held in November, TSO Amprion's Peter Lopion said the KWSG is vital to encourage plant construction in the south, where more gas-fired capacity is crucial if coal is to be phased out. He also raised concerns about Germany's target to phase out gas-fired power by 2045 — the year in which the country aims to reach climate neutrality — given the lack of a hydrogen economy and hydrogen production. Earlier this month, the CDU/CSU opposition parties commissioned an investigation into the feasibility of reactivating decommissioned nuclear plants, seeing the shutdown of Germany's final nuclear plant in April 2023 as "ideologically wrong". EnBW has told Argus that the decommissioning of its 1.4GW GKN II plant — the dismantling of which began in May 2023 — is "virtually irreversible". By Bea Leverett and John Horstmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German stakeholders doubt power plant strategy passing


03/12/24
03/12/24

German stakeholders doubt power plant strategy passing

London, 3 December (Argus) — The collapse of the German government on 6 November has led to uncertainty over the future of Germany's power market, particularly with regard to the passing of the power plant strategy (KWSG) before federal elections scheduled for 23 February. Under the power plant strategy, economic and climate ministry BMWK proposed tenders for the construction of 12.5GW of power plant capacity and 500MW of long-term storage over the next few years. This includes 10GW of hydrogen-ready gas-fired capacity, of which 5GW was planned to be offered next year, with the government aiming to hold tenders in early 2025 . Renewables association BEE announced on 26 November that BMWK had submitted a KWSG draft for industry consultation over 72 hours, indicating the minority government's urgent desire to enact the law before the elections. Incumbent energy minister Robert Habeck previously said politicians from the opposition CDU party had been "constantly" writing letters to ask when the power plant strategy would "finally" be passed. But the deputy head of the CDU/CSU, Jens Spahn, told an industry event last week that owing to the former coalition's sidelining of the opposition when drawing up the strategy, the CDU/CSU cannot be expected to support it. Utility EnBW told Argus in November that it expects the KWSG to be "supported" under the next government owing to a cross-party consensus on the need for more capacity. EnBW said it would be prepared to take part in the tenders "if the conditions allow it", whereas utility Leag told Argus that while "considerable progress" had been made in its preparations for the tenders, it is unable to do anything "concrete" until the regulatory framework has been clarified. But it voiced doubts over whether the KWSG will be passed before the elections. And utility RWE told Argus that while it would not "speculate" on the KWSG's passing, it will "not put planning efforts on hold" and will "proceed as usual" in its preparations. Vattenfall declined to comment, while Uniper was not immediately available. At an electricity market forum hosted by the country's four transmission system operators last month, grid regulator Bnetza's Tobias Lengner-Ludwig said that Bnetza and potential investors will need at least six months to prepare for the tenders, which could cause further delays. But in its position paper on the KWSG in response to BMWK's consultation, energy and water association BDEW said investing in the tenders in their current form is unattractive, as risks are too high owing to a potential lack of hydrogen supply, possible delays in the setting up of hydrogen infrastructure and short implementation timeframes. And while BEE told Argus that it does not expect the KWSG to be passed in this legislative period, it is not demanding its passage, as it views the proposal to invest in hydrogen-ready gas-fired plants unfavourably. Such a strong commitment to hydrogen risks fossil fuel lock-ins and high electricity prices, it said, particularly owing to the initially limited availability of green hydrogen. It said the government should focus on adding flexible renewable capacity by maximising the potential of existing sources, including hydropower, geothermal, battery storage and combined heat and power. German solar association BSW told Argus that alternatives to conventional generation — such as flexible bioenergy and storage systems — should be expanded to add dispatchable capacity. Even if the KWSG were passed in this legislative period, it would only have an impact in the early 2030s, it said. While clean spark spreads for lower-efficiency units for each year to 2027 have remained mostly negative this year, clean spark spreads for higher-efficiency units for 2025 turned negative in September after being in the money for most of 2024. And clean spark spreads for higher-efficiency units for 2026 and 2027 have averaged around €0.25/MWh and minus €1.40/MWh this year, despite the latter almost consistently being positive since the start of September. By Bea Leverett and John Horstmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

French government faces no confidence vote


02/12/24
02/12/24

French government faces no confidence vote

London, 2 December (Argus) — The French government could be set to fall within days, leaving its energy programme up in the air, after far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) declared it would launch a vote of no confidence. Prime minister Michel Barnier today announced he would use a parliamentary manoeuvre to push through a budget for the social security system without a vote. Since his nomination in September, Barnier has been attempting to achieve consensus on state budgets for 2025, while lacking a majority in the parliament. Left-wing and right-wing groups responded to today's move by promising to launch motions of no confidence. The RN had previously tacitly supported Barnier, preserving him in office as he prepares the budget, which must be finished before the end of the year. A successful vote of no confidence on 4 December at the earliest would require 289 deputies, a majority of the national assembly, to vote in favour. A previous confidence vote on 8 October garnered 197 in favour, falling short. But the 121 RN deputies supported the government on that occasion, and their switch to the opposition could provide enough votes for the measure to pass. If the government falls, no new parliamentary elections can be held until June. President Emmanuel Macron could name a new prime minister, but this appointee would not have a majority either. And left- and right-wing groups have called on him to resign and trigger new presidential elections. If the budget does not pass, the government's energy programme could be delayed or ignored. A potential way forward out of the budget deadlock could be to pass a special budget law, which would carry forward measures already in place this year, extending them for a month at a time until a permanent budget can be voted through. Changes which could not go forward in this situation could include a mooted increase to the tax on electricity — taking it up to roughly €30/MWh from 1 February 2025, from current levels of €21-21.50/MWh. Others include changes planned to subsidies for domestic energy efficiency measures and electric vehicles. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico central bank flags 2025 growth uncertainty


02/12/24
02/12/24

Mexico central bank flags 2025 growth uncertainty

Mexico City, 2 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank (Banxico) maintained its base-case 2025 GDP growth estimate at 1.2pc, with a range of 0.4pc to 2pc, citing heightened global uncertainty fueled by geopolitical conflicts and potential shifts in international economic policies. Central bank governor Victoria Rodriguez last week addressed US president-elect Donald Trump's proposed 25pc tariffs on Mexican goods, urging caution until the trade situation clarifies. Mexican president Claudia Shienbaum initially responded with a firm stance, saying Mexico could apply counter-tariffs. Later, Sheinbaum and Trump had a "friendly" phone call to discuss issues surrounding the proposed 25pc tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, Sheinbaum said. Banxico raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.8pc from 1.5pc in its previous quarterly report in August, driven by stronger-than-expected third-quarter performance. Still, Banxico noted that the additional growth is driven by increased spending on imported goods rather than domestic production, particularly in investment and private consumption. Inflation dynamics remain mixed. While headline inflation rose to an annualized 4.76pc in October, core inflation eased to 3.58pc, its lowest level since mid-2020. Rodriguez emphasized progress on inflation despite external uncertainties, signaling room for further monetary easing. Banxico cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.25pc on 14 November and is widely expected to lower it again to 10pc at its 19 December meeting. Projections from Mexican finance executives institution (IMEF) suggest the rate could drop to 8.25pc by the end of 2025. Banxico also revised its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.7pc from 4.4pc in the August report but expects inflation to return to its 2–4pc target range by early 2025, with a 3pc rate projected by the fourth quarter. Other adjustments include a downgraded forecast for formal job creation in 2024 and 2025, with the range estimate for full-year job creation in 2024 dropping to 250,000–350,000 from 410,000-550,000 in August. The 2025 estimate came down to 340,000–540,000 from 430,000–630,000.The 2025 trade deficit outlook was also tightened to $14.9bn–$22.1bn, compared to a previous range of $13.7bn–$23.7bn. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ meeting delayed to 5 December


28/11/24
28/11/24

Opec+ meeting delayed to 5 December

Dubai, 28 November (Argus) — A meeting of Opec+ ministers scheduled for 1 December has been postponed to 5 December. Opec said the delay is because of a conflicting travel schedule for energy ministers of Mideast Gulf countries, as the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) leaders summit in Kuwait overlaps with the Opec+ meeting. The Opec+ meeting, which was to be held online, will coincide with a decision to be taken by eight member countries on whether to press ahead with a plan to begin the phased return of 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts to the market from January. This was to begin in October, but concerns about the strength of oil demand and price weakness prompted the group to postpone to December and then to January. The UAE will start increasing its output from January regardless, as a 300,000 b/d increase to its official production quota kicks in over the course of 2025. Any increase to Opec+ supply would be tempered by additional cuts that some of the eight will be making in the coming months to compensate for past overproduction. Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia are the group's leading overproducers. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on 27 November talked with Kazakhstan's energy minister Almasadam Satkaliyev and Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak, Moscow's point man on Opec+ matters. A day earlier, Prince Abdulaziz met in Baghdad with Iraq's prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Novak. The statements from both meetings emphasised "full adherence to the [current policy] agreement, including the voluntary production cuts agreed upon by the eight participating countries, as well as compensating for any excess production." The 5 December meeting will be a third consecutive Opec+ ordinary ministerial meeting to be held virtually rather than in Vienna. The last time Opec+ held its ministerial meeting in-person was in June 2023. By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more