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Tension builds after Venezuela vote

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 29/07/24

Violence after polls closed in Venezuela's election late Sunday evening pointed to more uncertainty as President Nicolas Maduro seeks a third term in a race marred by harassment of the opposition and amid reimposition of US oil sanctions.

One man was shot and killed at a voting center and the main coalition of parties running against Maduro denounced severe irregularities during tallies after the vote.

The electoral authority (CNE) ordered some polling stations to stop transmitting vote counts to CNE headquarters in Caracas, opposition leader Delsa Solorzano said.

Solorzano also said opposition witnesses had been kicked out of polling stations and denied required copies of vote tallies.

"The transmission of results, of the tallies, has been paralyzed", Solorzano, the top opposition representative before CNE, said on social media.

Maduro has not spoken publicly since midday in Venezuela and he has not claimed victory. Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, running in the place of blocked candidate Maria Corina Machado, said that he would defend the results.

Exit polls indicated that 65.8pc of voters supported Gonzalez, with 13.5pc voting for Maduro, out of 52pc of eligible voters participating, pollster Meganalisis said.

"The results are impossible to hide, the country has chosen peaceful change," Gonzalez said.

The election began auspiciously, with long lines since Saturday night, uneventful voting and heavy turnouts.

But nighttime brought some violence once rumors of Maduro losing the election began circulating.

In addition to the one person shot at a voting center, pro-Maduro motorcycle gangs threatened polling stations and opposition members and witnesses, and some ballots have been burned, opposition representatives said.

The US administration has said it would be prepared to provide guarantees for Venezuela's government leaders if Maduro loses the election and lets the winner take power.

The opposition also said this week that it would move to open the energy sector to outside investment if it takes power, and the sector faces massive repairs after decades of underinvestment in its infrastructure.

Maduro in the last days of the campaign touted energy plans such as signing an agreement to explore for and produce natural gas in the offshore Cocuina-Manakin fields that straddles Venezuela's maritime border with Trinidad and Tobago.

Gasoline and electricity shortages continued to plague the country with some of the world's largest oil reserves throughout the campaign.


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29/07/24

Mideast contagion risk increases

Mideast contagion risk increases

Dubai, 29 July (Argus) — The risk of Israel's war with the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza spreading into the wider Middle East region appeared to step up a notch at the weekend with Jerusalem saying it is preparing for fighting on its northern border with Lebanon. The move, announced by the Israeli Defence Force (IDF), came after Israel pinned a 27 July rocket attack that killed 12 people in the Golan Heights on Lebanon-based Hezbollah — like Hamas, an Iran-backed group. The IDF said it is "greatly increasing its readiness for the next stage of fighting in the north." The White House also blamed Hezbollah for the strike, saying its was "their rocket, and launched from an area they control." Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged fire almost daily since 8 October last year, a day after Hamas first attacked Israel. Those skirmishes had mostly targeted military sites, but the weekend strike was by far the deadliest on civilians inside Israeli territory. The prospect of violence spreading in the Middle East has been a concern, not least in Washington, since the war began between Hamas and Israel. On 13 April, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time and Israel retaliated five days later. The Yemen-based Houthi militant group launched a campaign of targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea in what it said was a direct response to Israel's actions in Gaza, and recently directly hit central Tel Aviv with a drone. International crude markets did not react to the weekend's events. Ice Brent front-month crude was mostly unchanged today. Separately, Turkish President Erdogan Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 28 July increased his rhetoric against Israel, hinting at intervention in the Gaza conflict. This may put in doubt Ankara's involvement in any multinational post-war force in Gaza, a "day after" scenario the UAE and the US are attempting to work on. "We must be very strong so that Israel can't do these things to Palestine," Erdogan said in a televised speech in his hometown of Rize, where he enjoys overwhelming support. "Just as we entered Karabakh, just as we entered Libya, we might do the same to them," he said. "There is nothing we cannot do. Only we must be strong." Erdogan has adopted a more aggressive stance towards Israel since his AKP party's poor showing at municipal elections in March, with the Palestinian struggle for statehood being a key cause for his conservative Muslim support base. His comments were non-specific as to the nature of any potential Turkish involvement in Palestinian territories. In Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, Ankara provided military hardware — especially unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) — and advisors that helped shape outcomes of both conflicts. Israel's foreign minister Israel Katz said Erdogan was following "in the footsteps of Saddam Hussein" with threats to attack Israel. "Just let him remember what happened there and how it ended," he said on X. US secretary of state Anthony Blinken on 28 July reiterated Washington's desire to prevent the conflict from escalating. "We don't want to see it spread," he said in Japan. "The best way to do that in a sustained way is to get the ceasefire in Gaza." By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s Mereenie JV signs gas supply deal with NT


29/07/24
29/07/24

Australia’s Mereenie JV signs gas supply deal with NT

Sydney, 29 July (Argus) — The joint venture (JV) partners at Mereenie, the Northern Territory's (NT's) largest onshore operating gas field, have entered a six-year deal to supply the NT government from 1 January 2025. The 40.5PJ (1.08bn m³) take-or-pay gas sales agreement (GSA) mitigates the risk incurred by closures to the 90 TJ/d (2.4mn m³/d) Northern gas pipeline (NGP). It does this by contracting all firm production capacity and expanding by up to 16 TJ/d on any day in 2025 when the NGP is unable to deliver to the east coast network, operator Australian independent Central Petroleum said on 29 July. The GSA underwrites the JV's potential investment in two new production wells at Mereenie, said Central, which holds a 25pc stake, by increasing firm sales to the NT by up to 6 TJ/d. The NT is dependent on gas-fired power supply but supply problems at Italian oil firm Eni's offshore Blacktip field led it to signing a GSA with Mereenie for 2024 supply earlier this year. The issues at Blacktip resulted in the NGP ceasing flows in early February, cutting Mereenie off from its customers. The NT this week also signed a GSA with Australian independent Empire Energy for supply from the proposed 25 TJ/d Carpentaria project in the onshore Beetaloo subbasin. A unit of Australia's Macquarie Bank owns 50pc of Mereenie, located in the Amadeus basin, with upstream firm New Zealand Oil and Gas holding 17.5pc and the remaining 7.5pc is owned by Australian independent Cue Energy. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Eni confident on 2024 output, but Libya project slips


26/07/24
26/07/24

Eni confident on 2024 output, but Libya project slips

London, 26 July (Argus) — Executives at Italy's Eni are confident it will achieve the upper end of its 1.69mn-1.71mn production guidance for this year, but start-up of a key Libyan project is set to slip from 2026 into 2027. In a presentation of second-quarter earnings today, A&E Structure was one of two Libyan projects on a list of Eni's upcoming start-ups through to 2028 that will deliver some 740,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) of net production to the company. A&E Structure is a 160,000 boe/d gas development that will include some 40,000 b/d of liquids production, mainly condensate. A&E Structure is central to Libya's ability to sustain gas exports to Italy, which have dropped in recent years on a combination of rising domestic consumption and falling production. Supplies through the 775mn ft³/d Greenstream pipeline hit their lowest since the 2011 revolution in 2023, averaging 250mn ft³/d. The slide has continued since, with year-to-date volumes of around 160mn ft³/d on track for a record low. Eni's other upcoming Libyan project — the Bouri Gas Utilisation Project development that aims to capture 85mn ft³/d of gas at the 25,000 b/d offshore Bouri oil field — had already been pushed back from 2025 to 2026. For 2024 Eni expects to be "at the upper boundary of its guidance", according to chief operating officer of Natural Resources Guido Brusco. The company had a strong first half, during which output was 1.73mn boe/d — 5pc up on the year — thanks to good performance at assets in Ivory Coast, Indonesia, Congo (Brazzaville) and Libya. Brusco said Eni is in the process of starting up its 30,000 boe/d Cassiopea gas project in Italy, with first production expected next month, and the 45,000 b/d second phase of the Baleine oil project in Ivory Coast is expected to start by the end of this year. At Baleine, Brusco confirmed the two vessels to be used at phase two "will be in country in September and, building on the experience of phase one, we expect a couple of months of final integrated commissioning" before first oil. Eni also said today it would raise its dividend for 2024 by 6pc over 2023 to €1/share, and confirmed share repurchases this year of €1.6bn. It said there is potential for an additional buyback of up to €500mn, which is being evaluated this quarter. Eni's debt gearing is scheduled to fall below 20pc by the end of the year. Chief financial officer Francesco Gattei said these accelerated share buybacks would be possible if divestment deals are confirmed. By Jon Mainwaring and Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s Ichthys LNG to restart liquefaction train


26/07/24
26/07/24

Australia’s Ichthys LNG to restart liquefaction train

Singapore, 26 July (Argus) — The second liquefaction train at Australia's 9.3mn t/yr Ichthys LNG export terminal plans to resume partial operations today, after going off line unexpectedly during 18-19 July, according to traders. The export facility is operated by Japanese upstream firm Inpex. Repairs at the affected train could take up to a month before it returns to full production, although the train is expected to restart by this weekend, according to market participants. Attempts to restart train two could take place by 26 July. Some delays to deliveries from the facility are expected, although there are also unconfirmed reports that up to two cargoes may have already been cancelled at the time of writing. The overall impact on the market is likely to be limited for now, with continuing weak spot demand from northeast Asian importers. Some term buyers previously requested for their deliveries to be deferred, traders said, although it is unclear just how many requests for deferment were received. But other participants have pointed out that the winter restocking season could soon start and any further impediments to train two's restart could lift prices. Recent temperatures in Japan have been higher than expected, with at least a 70pc probability of above-normal temperatures over the vast majority of the country until 23 August, according to the latest forecast issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency on 25 July. At least one Japanese utility may be considering spot purchases for August, owing to higher-than-expected power consumption because of warmer temperatures. But at least two other Japanese firms could be looking to sell a September and an October cargo each, traders said, which could indicate that the spot market is still sufficiently well-supplied to cope with additional demand from Japanese utilities. The 174,000m³ Grace Freesia departed from Ichthys on 25 July after loading an LNG cargo, according to ship tracking data from Kpler. The export terminal sold a spot cargo for loading over 2-6 June at around high-$9s/mn Btu through a tender that closed on 10 May, but further details are unclear. The US' 17.3mn t/yr Freeport export terminal also faced issues restarting since it was first taken off line on 7 July as a precautionary measure against Hurricane Beryl. The terminal loaded its first cargo on 21 July . All three trains are likely to be back on line as of 26 July, although production at the facility should still be closely monitored, traders said. By Naomi Ong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s Empire Energy signs deal to sell gas to NT


26/07/24
26/07/24

Australia’s Empire Energy signs deal to sell gas to NT

Adelaide, 26 July (Argus) — Australian independent Empire Energy has signed an agreement to supply the Northern Territory (NT) with gas from its Carpentaria project in the onshore Beetaloo subbasin. Empire will supply NT with up to 25 TJ/d (668,000 m³/d) of gas over 10 years, starting from mid-2025. This equates to an estimated total supply of 75PJ (2bn m3) of gas. The deal includes scope for an additional 10 TJ/d for up to 10 years if production level at the Carpentaria plant exceeds 100 TJ/d. The firm bought domestic utility AGL Energy's dormant 42 TJ/d Rosalind Park gas plant late last yearwith plans to reassemble the facility on site at Carpentaria, subject to a final investment decision on the project. Gas will be delivered to the NT government-owned Power and Water (PWC) via the McArthur River gas pipeline on an ex-field take-or-pay basis, Empire said on 26 July. PWC in April signed an agreement to buy 8.6PJ of gas from Australian independent Central Petroleum , to supply gas-fired power generation and private-sector customers. Low production at Italian energy firm Eni's Blacktip field, offshore the NT, has led PWC to court new supply while providing a new outlet for prospective producers operating within Beetaloo. The largest Beetaloo acreage holder, Tamboran Resources, has revealed ambitious plans for a 6.6mn t/yr LNG plant to be located near Darwin Harbour's two existing LNG projects, using the basin's shale gas resources as feedstock. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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