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Australia’s Newcastle coal ship queue increases

  • Spanish Market: Coal, Coking coal
  • 05/08/24

The shipping queue outside the key Australian coal port of Newcastle hit a two-year high of 41 vessels on 5 August, despite higher throughput at the Port Waratah Coal Service (PWCS) terminals.

  • The average vessel turnaround time in July at PWCS eased to 7.38 days from a 22-month high of 7.61 days in June as exports increased but the shipping queue grew on increased arrivals.
  • The PWCS terminals' shipments rose to 8.61mn t in July from 7.9mn t in June but was down from 8.79mn t in July 2023, according to PWCS data.
  • There was no maintenance planned for July but the port of Newcastle was hit by storms and rough seas during the month. There is a major rail maintenance programme under way during 3-6 August.
  • Newcastle Coal Infrastructure (NCIG) does not release data for its terminal at Newcastle, while the Port Authority of New South Wales has not yet released overall data for July. Newcastle shipped 12.28mn t in June, up from 11.77mn t in May. This implies that NCIG shipped 4.38mn t in June.
  • Newcastle shipped 73.2mn t during January-June, up from 67.98mn t for January-June 2023, according to port data.

PWCS coal loading data
Jul '24Jun '24Jul '23Jan-Jul '24*Jan- Jul '23*
PWCS loadings (mn t)8.617.908.7956.3952.92
PWCS stocks (mn t)2.251.601.531.571.46
PWCS turnaround time (days)7.387.602.884.662.13
Newcastle ship queue (vessels)41311323.5710.57
* PWCS loadings is a total YTD, all others are average per month YTD

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02/08/24

China to set hard targets for curbing CO2 emissions

China to set hard targets for curbing CO2 emissions

San Francisco, 2 August (Argus) — China is planning a shift in the way it controls greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, in a move that could support progress in its national emissions trading scheme (ETS), although it is unclear what emissions levels will be targeted. The country currently measures CO2 against economic growth, or emissions per unit of GDP in what is known as carbon intensity. This allows it to tout progress despite rising emissions so long as these do not rise faster than GDP. But it plans to change this. Beijing aims to incorporate CO2 indicators and related requirements into national plans and establish and improve local carbon assessments in a goal to improve CO2 statistical accounting. This will affect sectors including the power, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals sectors, according to a state council work plan issued on 2 August. It will evaluate CO2 emissions of fixed asset investments and conduct product carbon footprint assessments while local governments will implement provincial carbon budgets that could enter trials in 2025. The latter will involve a wide range of industries including oil, petrochemicals, coal-to-gas, steel, cement, aluminium, solar panels manufacturing and electric vehicles, among others. Beijing is hoping such measures will allow it to set hard targets for CO2 emissions from 2026-2030, although the government will still prioritise intensity control in the meantime in what it calls a ‘dual-control mechanism' — switching from controlling intensity to actual emissions of CO2. Provinces are expected to be allowed to further refine this dual control mechanism, suggesting it will may give localities some leeway to adjust. China's ETS currently includes only the power sector due in large part to challenges collating accurate CO2 emissions data from other sectors, although it is expected to include other sectors like aluminium into the scheme soon. China unveiled new regulations for its ETS earlier this year, aiming to crack down on falsification of data. It sees the ETS as a tool to help it meet a goal to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico 2Q GDP data, surveys point to slower economy


02/08/24
02/08/24

Mexico 2Q GDP data, surveys point to slower economy

Mexico City, 2 August (Argus) — Private-sector analysts have lowered estimates for Mexico's 2024 and 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth while raising inflation forecasts for both years, the central bank said Thursday. For a fourth consecutive month, the survey's median forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 declined, with analysts polled lowering growth estimates to 1.8pc for 2024 from 2pc in last month's survey. The 2025 growth forecast slipped to 1.61pc from 1.78pc. The shift in forecasts arrives on the heels of preliminary second quarter GDP data, posted by statistics agency Inegi 30 July, showing the economy grew by an annual 2.2pc in the second quarter, up from 1.6pc in the first quarter but slowing from 3.5pc in the second quarter 2023. The central bank's 2024 GDP estimate was lower than a 2.4pc estimate from Mexican bank Banorte. Median projections for end-2024 inflation in the central bank's private-sector survey for July moved to 4.58pc from 4.23pc, with end-2025 projections rising to 3.83pc from 3.76pc in the June survey. The central bank cited higher risks to inflation from a weakening peso and a potentially severe hurricane season in its latest monetary policy decision on 27 June when it held its target interest rate at 11pc. The peso weakened above 19 pesos to the US dollar Friday for the first time since January 2023, extending the losses triggered after 2 June elections that effectively erased congressional opposition to the progressive Morena party. It has weakened from 16.3 pesos to the dollar early April, its strongest level in more than eight years. Growth in the industrial sector grew by an annual 1.9pc in the second quarter from 0.9pc in the first quarter, while services grew by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 2.1pc in the prior quarter, according to the latest GDP report. Agriculture contracted by 2.7pc in the second quarter from 0.6pc growth in the first quarter. "The economy's exceptional momentum in previous years may be running out of steam," said Mexican bank Banorte in a note on the GDP report. Banorte noted uncertainty in manufacturing, "although some of the early nearshoring-related investments could begin to result into more production. In addition, the auto sector remains strong, key to driving the category forward." The downtrend is supported by comments from ratings agency Moody's out this week, predicting a "substantial slowdown" in the second half of 2024. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US job growth slows sharply in July, jobless rate rises


02/08/24
02/08/24

US job growth slows sharply in July, jobless rate rises

Houston, 2 August (Argus) — The US added 114,000 nonfarm jobs in July, much less than expected, as the jobless rate rose and average hourly earnings growth fell, all signs of an almost certain rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month. Job gains followed downwardly revised gains of 179,000 in June and 216,000 jobs in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Gains were revised down by 29,000 for the two months. Gains in July were well below the average 215,000 jobs added monthly for the prior 12 months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3pc from 4.1pc. Fed policymakers this week kept their target rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5pc, a 23-year high, but Fed chief Jerome Powell said a possible rate cut was "on the table" for September should the data — especially easing inflation pressures and weakening labor market conditions — keep moving in the right direction. After the jobs report today, the CME's FedWatch tool showed 67.5pc odds of a 50 basis point cut, and 32.5pc probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, compared with 22pc and 72pc odds, respectively, on Thursday. A rate cut in September would come less than two months before the November national election and would be the first cut since early 2020, when Covid-19 struck the US. Job gains were led by health care, construction, transportation and warehousing. Health care added 55,000 jobs, construction added 25,000 and transportation and warehousing added 14,000 jobs. Manufacturing added 1,000 jobs compared with losses of 9,000 jobs in June. Mining, which includes oil and gas exploration and production, shed 1,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by an annual 3.6pc, down from 3.8pc in June and the lowest since May 2021. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Vitol expands coal trading in Noble Resources purchase


02/08/24
02/08/24

Vitol expands coal trading in Noble Resources purchase

Singapore, 2 August (Argus) — Vitol has agreed to buy fellow commodity trading firm Noble Resources for $208.9mn, a deal that will expand its coal trading business. Vitol will pay the equivalent of $0.63 per share on a cash free and debt free basis for the Singapore-based firm and expects to close the deal before the end of 2024, it said on 2 August. The reconstituted Noble Resources trades and manage more than 35mn t/yr of thermal coal, sourced from Indonesia and Australia and marketed to key markets across Asia-Pacific. Its predecessor company Noble Group was forced to sell many of its assets because of a debt crisis after accusations of accounting fraud. The company completed a $3.45bn debt restructuring in December 2018 . Major divestments included selling its North American oil liquids business to Vitol in 2017 and its North American power and gas unit to trading firm Mercuria. The acquisition of Noble Resources is the latest in a series of strategic moves by Vitol to expand its global operations. Vitol in June this year completed a deal to buy a controlling stake in Italian refiner Saras . The deal will lift Vitol's investments in refining capacity to over 800,000 b/d and grow its footprint in the Mediterranean. Vitol in April acquired US-based renewable energy company BioMethane Partners to form Vitol BioMethane (VBM). The combined capacity at VBM is estimated to generate an equivalent 22mn cellulosic biofuel D3 renewable identification number credits. By Janet Ong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s June coking coal exports hit one-year high


02/08/24
02/08/24

Australia’s June coking coal exports hit one-year high

Shanghai, 2 August (Argus) — Australia's coking coal shipments climbed to a one-year high in June, as producers ramped up output to secure targets ahead of the end of the July 2023-June 2024 fiscal year. Total coking coal exports were 14.5mn t for the month, up from a revised 12.65mn t in May but 3.5pc below the 15.03mn t shipped in June 2023, according to data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) via GTT. Total exports in January-June were at76.32mn t,largely flat compared to the same period in 2023. Hard coking coal exports totalled 9.74mn t in June, up from 8.56mn t in May, while January-June exports of 51.52mn t were a marginal 0.4pc lower than the same period in 2023. Exports to China jumped by more than fivefold against the previous month to 0.88mn t and was more than 11 times that of volumes in June 2023. Total semi-soft and pulverised coal injection (PCI) grade shipments were 4.77mn t in June, 16pc up from the previous month and 5.9pc above that recorded in June 2023. January-June exports of 24.72mn t rose by a marginal 1.5pc from the same period in 2023, as shipments to Indonesia more than doubled, offsetting lower shipments to major consuming regions including Japan and South Korea. The Argus premium low-volatile hard coking coal price averaged $250.60/t fob Australia in June, up from $244.54/t in May. It fell back down to an average of $236.53/t in July and was last assessed at $215/t on 1 August. The average export price for Australian hard coking coal was $220.56/t in June, up from a revised $215.98/t in May. Prices were based on an Australian-US dollar exchange rate of 0.6624 used by the ABS for June. The average export price for Australian semi-soft coking coal was $187.24/t in June, up from $192.37/t in May. The Argus-assessed PCI price averaged $179.79/t fob Australia in June, up from $162.78/t in May. It rose further to an average of $194.98/t in July, on the back of supply tightness and was last assessed at $188.75/t on 1 August. Australia metallurgical coal exports (mn t) Jun '24 % ± vs May '24 % ± vs Jun '23 Jan-Jun '24 % ± vs Jan-Jun '23 Hard coking coal China 0.88 461.75 1,079.68 2.37 92.55 Japan 1.78 17.38 18.28 9.70 6.11 South Korea 0.86 -33.54 -36.92 5.41 -5.15 Taiwan 0.49 10.48 -39.93 2.50 -9.98 India 3.17 12.30 -12.33 16.11 -5.39 Vietnam 0.52 103.53 -36.05 2.85 -2.58 Indonesia 0.41 24.10 -11.96 2.23 25.55 Total 9.74 13.75 -7.54 51.52 -0.35 Semi-soft coking, PCI coal Japan 1.47 18.07 -25.05 8.59 -6.39 South Korea 0.69 -23.17 1.75 4.11 -3.37 Taiwan 0.35 56.13 -1.36 1.83 -2.91 India 0.94 6.17 3.23 4.71 1.52 Indonesia 0.08 131.70 14.88 0.56 159.49 Total 4.77 16.38 5.88 24.72 1.45 Source: ABS, GTT Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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