US inflation slows to 2.9pc in July, 3-year low
US inflation slowed in July to the lowest since March 2021, a sign of decelerating pricing pressure that point to a likely cut in borrowing costs by the Federal Reserve next month.
The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual 2.9pc in July from 3pc in June and 3.3pc in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.2pc in July, the smallest gain since April 2021.
After the report, the CME's FedWatch tool signaled a 58.5pc probability that the Fed will cut its target rate by a quarter point in September from 47pc odds Wednesday. Probabilities of a half point cut fell to 41.5pc from 53pc the prior day, suggesting underlying signs of stubborn inflation in the details of today's report.
The energy index rose by an annual 1.1pc in July, accelerating from 1pc in June, while the gasoline index contracted by 2.2pc in July compared with a 2.5pc contraction in June. Energy services rose by an annual 4.2pc, slowing from 4.3pc the prior month.
Food costs rose by 2.2pc in July, matching the prior month. Shelter rose by 5.1pc in July, easing from 5.2pc the prior month. Transportation services rose by 8.8pc in July following a 9.4pc gain in June.
After falling to 3.1pc in January, inflation had reaccelerated to as high as 3.5pc in March as job growth and other economic data had come in stronger than expected. That prompted the Federal Reserve to hold off on widely expected rate cuts after hiking its target rate to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc in July 2023 and holding it there since, saying it needed "greater confidence" that inflation was easing to its 2pc target.
The Fed, in its June policy meeting, penciled in one likely quarter-point cut this year, down from three signaled in March. But a weaker than expected employment report for July early this month had prompted an equity market downdraft last week on recession concerns and fears the Fed had been too slow to begin cutting rates.
CPI rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.2pc in July after a 0.1pc gain in June. Core CPI was up by 0.2pc for the month after a monthly gain of 0.1pc in June.
By Bob Willis
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Brazilian steelmakers expect better 2H
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Sao Paulo, 13 August (Argus) — Brazilian steelmakers expect better results in the second half of the year, as they stand to benefit from higher tariffs on imported steel and a potentially improved economic situation. The top producers have so far reported mixed results for the second quarter, with Gerdau , Usiminas and CSN posting higher sales volumes and production but also losses and lower revenues. Yet there was a consensus that recently announced new tariffs on imported steel are likely to improve results in the coming quarters. The Brazilian government announced in May it would impose a new quota and tariff system on imported steel to protect local production from unfair competition. The government outlined a 25pc tariff on the share of imports that exceeds volume quotas. The move led some companies to notify clients of price increases , claiming much needed adjustments. CSN said on an earnings call that it plans to raise prices for its steel products in the third quarter as a part of its "price realignment." In late July , Usiminas said it plans to increase prices by 5-7pc in the coming months. An expected price hike by Gerdau would improve the company's profitability for its Brazilian operations, XP analysts said in a report. The recent hastening of the dollar appreciation against the Brazilian real — by over 12pc year-to-date — will also drive better results for companies in the coming months, according to analysts. Although Usiminas suffered losses because of the dollar appreciation, as it is a major importer of slab, it — and other companies — might benefit from higher prices of other imported products. A stronger dollar to the Brazilian real could "reduce the impetus for imports," MonteBravo brokerage analysts said in a report on Gerdau. A third component for better results in the coming quarters could be stronger demand from Brazil, boosted by improving economic growth and aligned with the continuation of support from North American volumes, which the companies highlighted in their earnings. "Brazil's steel demand is resilient and prices are showing signs of improvement," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report about CSN. "We then expect steel earnings to improve." Despite the optimism, the negative scenario for these companies could not be reversed this year, Genial analysts said, adding that Chinese steelmakers will keep prioritizing exports because of weakened domestic demand. "Brazil, for its part, remains a market with a complex and potentially ineffective tariff protection system, due to the additional quota system," the analysts said. By Carolina Pulice Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
California pares LCFS goals to tougher targets: Update
California pares LCFS goals to tougher targets: Update
Updates trade discussion, adds links to other coverage. Houston, 13 August (Argus) — California will pursue transportation fuel carbon reduction targets in 2025 nearly twice as tough as originally proposed under final Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) rulemaking language released late Monday. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will consider a one-time tightening of annual targets for gasoline and diesel by 9pc in 2025, compared with the usual 1.25pc annual reduction and a 5pc stepdown first proposed in December 2023. Staff maintained a 30pc reduction target for 2030, compared to the current 20pc target. Final rulemaking language introduced a new 20pc/yr cap on a company's credit generation from soybean- and canola-oil-based biodiesel or renewable diesel to begin in 2028. The updated rule also dropped proposals to require carbon reductions from jet fuel in addition to gasoline and diesel, a controversial proposal aligned with governor Gavin Newsom's (D) ambitions for lower-carbon air travel but which participants warned would not achieve its targets. The new proposal immediately jolted a lethargic credit market that earlier this year slumped to the lowest spot price in nearly a decade under the weight of growing credit supplies. Current quarter trade raced higher by $12.50 — 26pc — in rare after-hours activity less than two hours after CARB staff published the latest documents. Trade continued up to $65/t in the first half of Tuesday's session before retreating in later hours back below $60/t. Public comment on the proposals will continue to 27 August ahead of a planned 8 November public hearing and potential board vote. The program changes could be in place by the end of the first quarter of 2025, according to staff. LCFS programs require yearly reductions to transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Surging use of renewable diesel and outsized credit generation from renewable natural gas have overwhelmed deficit generation to create a glut of credits available for future compliance. LCFS credits do not expire, and 26.1mn metric tonnes of credits — higher by 16pc than all the new deficits generated in 2023 — were available for future compliance by the end of March. Credits fell in May to trade at $40/t, the lowest level for current quarter credits since June 2015. California late last year formally proposed tougher annual targets, off-ramps for certain fuels and other changes to North America's largest and oldest LCFS program. Staff had initially targeted March to put ideas including a one-time, 5pc reduction to targets in 2025 and automatic mechanisms to match targets to credit and deficit generation before the board for formal approval, but they delayed that meeting after receiving hundreds of distinct comments on the original proposal. Staff shifted the 2025 target to at least 7pc after an April workshop discussion and another record-breaking quarter of increases in credits available for future compliance. The 9pc recommendation followed the continued growth of credit supplies in recent quarters. Previous modeling estimated that such a target could draw down the credit bank by 8.2mn t in its first year. Uncertainty over how fuel suppliers and consumers would respond to that target led staff to leave in place the proposed 30pc target by 2030. An outright cap on credits generated from soybean- or canola-oil derived biomass-based diesels augments initially proposed "guard rails" on crop-based credit generation through verification. The change would send a stronger market signal preferring waste-based feedstocks for diesel fuels that California expects to replace with zero-emission alternatives, staff said. And staff dropped a proposed obligation on jet fuel used in intrastate flights, estimated to make up 10pc of California's jet fuel consumption. Participants had warned the measure would stoke more credit purchases than renewable jet fuel buying, due to the structure of the aviation fuel market . By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Germany's Landwärme declares insolvency
Germany's Landwärme declares insolvency
London, 13 August (Argus) — German biomethane supplier Landwärme has today declared insolvency under the country's self-administration procedure and has initiated restructuring measures "to overcome the consequences of the ongoing decline in prices of German greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction quota". Self-administration proceedings are a proven legal framework in German restructuring law analogous to the US' Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. They allow businesses to reorganise structures and financing while operations continue. Landwärme attributed the price decline of German GHG tickets to an influx of imported, falsely-labelled biodiesel since the start of last year, as well as other alleged fraud cases regarding upstream emission reduction (UER) projects. Fake UER projects have caused the biofuel industry around €4.5bn in damages, according to the company. Argus' Other GHG credits, GHG certificates which do not fall under caps for crop-based and Annex Part B biofuels, averaged €100/t CO2e in July, down from around €400/t CO2e in January 2023. Landwärme is also looking to bring a "financially strong partner on board" to regain the necessary stability, it said, and intends to complete the restructuring as quickly as possible. "This procedure could have been avoided if politicians and authorities had been more consistent in prosecuting and combating the alleged fraud cases in biodiesel and UER projects", managing director Zoltan Elek said. By Sophie Barthel Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico June trade gap driven by falling crude exports
Mexico June trade gap driven by falling crude exports
Mexico City, 13 August (Argus) — Mexico's trade balance swung to a deficit of $1.04bn in June, impacted by reduced oil exports at lower prices and a weaker peso. The trade gap in June flipped from a $1.99bn surplus in May, acccording to statistics agency Inegi's final estimate, as exports fell at nearly twice the rate of declines in imports. Exports fell by 12pc to $48.9bn in June from the prior month, while imports declined by 7pc to $49.9bn from the prior month. The trade balance was in deficit for four of the six months in the first half of 2024. The deficit in the first half of the year was $5.5bn compared with a $6.5bn deficit a year earlier. In explaining the June deficit, Banorte cited "a slight moderation in oil prices relative to May, with the Mexican oil mix averaging $73.49/b in the month; a depreciation of the Mexican peso; and the temporary suspension of exports of some agricultural products to the US." Likewise, exports were down 5.7pc from June 2023, while imports were 3.6pc lower than a year earlier. The deficit was below Mexican bank Banorte's forecast for a $450mn surplus in June. Inegi breaks Mexico's trade data into two broad categories of "oil" and "non-oil", where the oil category includes crude, natural gas, oil derivatives and petrochemicals. Non-oil includes everything else from light vehicles and farm goods to copper and other mined minerals, Exports in the broad oil category declined by 33pc to $2.1bn in June from $3.2bn in May, with imports down by 13pc at $2.82bn in June from $3.23bn in May. Exports were down by 27pc from a year prior, with imports down by 26pc. Within this, crude exports were valued at $1.73bn in June, a sharp drop from $2.15bn in May and lower than the $2.44bn in the same month of 2023. Natural gas imports, meanwhile, were valued at $395mn in June from $316mn in May and $469mn in June 2023. Non-oil exports reached $46.8bn in June, with $15.6bn from automotive exports. This was down by 5pc and 5.2pc, respectively from May. Still, as reported last week by Mexico's auto associations , auto exports have climbed by 8.4pc in the first seven months of the year from a year earlier. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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