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EU June manufacturing output down on year, up on month

  • Spanish Market: Natural gas
  • 14/08/24

EU manufacturing output was much lower in June compared with a year earlier but edged higher from the previous month, preliminary data from Eurostat show.

Seasonally and calendar-adjusted EU manufacturing output dropped to 99.6 against a 2021 baseline of 100, down by a significant 4.2 basis points on the year but up by 0.1 points compared with May.

In more absolute terms, EU manufacturing output was down by 3.8pc from June 2023. Manufacturing production has dropped on the year for every month since July 2023 except for December.

Output fell in four of the bloc's five largest economies — Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy and France. Production was 4.6pc lower than a year earlier in Germany, the EU's largest economy, while only Spanish output increased (see year-on-year graph). Spain's economy has proved more resilient than that of any other major EU country over the past two years.

Irish manufacturing data has become declassified, having previously been kept private. Ireland has a disproportionate effect on total EU data, with a weighting of 8.9pc in the 2021 baseline year. A large part of Ireland's manufacturing is performed outside the EU but counted as Irish production, with non gas-intensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals and electronics dominating. Because Irish manufacturing is based on large foreign orders performed overseas, it swings significantly from month to month, and in June was down by nearly 18pc on the year. But while Irish data are now declassified, Slovenian manufacturing data appear to be unavailable, having previously been viewable.

Output was mixed across gas-intensive industries. Production in the most gas-intensive of all industries, the chemicals and chemical products sector, climbed by 5.7pc on the year, albeit from a low point of comparison. This was a fifth consecutive month of increase, as European production slowly recovers from the lows of late last year. Output in the food products and beverages, coke and refined petroleum products, and paper and paper products sectors was also up, while basic metals returned to year-on-year growth for just the second time since February 2022.

The non-metallic minerals sector continued to struggle, with output down by 1.9pc on the year (see table). But this was the smallest decrease since August 2022, which could suggest that production is nearing the point of bottoming out. Non-metallic minerals output last grew on the year in May 2022.

In the motor vehicles sector — crucial for demand of other gas-intensive goods such as glass, steel and chemicals — output was down by 3.4pc on the year, falling for a sixth consecutive month. This contrasts with 2023, when output was up on the year in every month as chip shortages eased from early 2022. In construction, a similarly important tertiary sector, the most recent data for May put EU production at 102.3 compared with a 2021 baseline, the lowest for any month since December 2022. High interest rates across the EU have increased the cost of borrowing for consumers, consequently weakening demand for large investments such as cars and houses.

Eurozone manufacturing production contracted again in July, according to data compiled earlier this month. "The widely held belief that the eurozone's recovery would pick up speed in the second half of the year is taking a hit," Hamburg Commercial Bank chief economist Cyrus de la Rubia said. "We'll probably need to lower our GDP growth forecast for the year from 0.8pc." GDP growth in the eurozone was just 0.3pc in both the first and second quarters of this year, according to Eurostat.

EU June manufacturing output by sector
Sector±% Jun 23±% May 24
All manufacturing-3.80.1
Chemicals and chemical products5.71.2
Non-metallic minerals-1.91.1
Food products and beverages1.3-1.3
Paper and paper products5.4-0.3
Basic metals2.41.9
Coke and refined petroleum products1.82.8
Motor vehicles and other transport-3.44.3

Percentage change in manufacturing by country, M-o-M

Percentage change in manufacturing by country, Y-o-Y

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10/03/25

US targets 'lower' oil price, no target: Wright

US targets 'lower' oil price, no target: Wright

Washington, 10 March (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's administration is pushing for lower oil prices but has set no specific price target and expects to bring more supply into the market through deregulation and permitting reform, US energy secretary Chris Wright says. "We certainly believe it's in the best interest of the American people, and honestly, the citizens of the world to have lower oil prices," Wright said on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston. But he added that "I won't have a specific price" and that "the actions of this administration are to make it easier to produce more oil and natural gas for the producers, and therefore you get more investment." Unlike Wright, a former oil industry executive who has taken over the Department of Energy under Trump, other senior advisers to Trump have referred to $50/bl as a preferable oil price target. Those include treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Trump's trade adviser Peter Navarro. Trump's call on Opec to "bring down the price of oil" preceded the producer group's decision last week to proceed with plans to gradually return 2.2mn b/d of supply to the market. "We're pleased, of course, to see Opec returning barrels to the marketplace," Wright said, but he added that the US has made no "specific requests or demands". Climate change as "side effect" Wright, in a speech before the general CERAWeek audience, pounded on former president Joe Biden's administration for allegedly ignoring the concerns of the US oil and gas industry and basing its energy sector decisions on what Wright called "irrational, quasi-religious climate policies". Wright called climate change a "side effect" of economic development. "Everything in life involves trade-offs," he said. The potential benefits of Biden-era climate policies were not worth the "endless sacrifices on our citizens", Wright said. "The Trump administration intends to be much more scientific and mathematically literate." Wright's spirited defense of oil and gas and denunciation of climate change policies drew some applause from the audience. Still, the rapid pace of change in the US energy policy every four years is "not the right policy approach," Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth said at CERAWeek. The Trump administration's executive actions affecting the energy sector need to be backed by legislation that makes permitting reform possible, Wirth said. Wright acknowledged a possible contradiction between Trump's vision for lower oil prices and more output, but said that enabling more investment and new infrastructure would address that dilemma. "It's not just 'drill baby drill', it's also 'build baby build'," Wright said. Nasser supports transition Speaking at a separate panel, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser echoed many of the same themes raised by Wright, including the claim that the energy transition did not address the needs of the world's poorest citizens in the emerging economies. But, unlike Wright who appeared to disparage solar and offshore wind resources, Nasser said that Saudi Arabia's energy transformation will make good use of renewable energy sources and will continue to aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Trump's administration surprised the US oil and gas industry on 4 March by proceeding with plans to impose a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports and a 25pc tax on energy imports from Mexico. Trump lifted the tariffs on 7 March but has said he may bring them back on 2 April. "We have, behind closed doors, vigorous debates about tariffs, people arguing all sides of that," Wright said. "What is the ultimate outcome going to be? We don't know for sure." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's GDP growth accelerates to 3.4pc in 2024


07/03/25
07/03/25

Brazil's GDP growth accelerates to 3.4pc in 2024

Sao Paulo, 7 March (Argus) — Brazil's economic growth accelerated to an annual 3.4pc last year, the fastest growth since 2021, as gains in the services and industry sectors offset contractions in the agriculture sector, according to government statistics agency IBGE. Growth accelerated from 3.2pc in 2023 and 3pc the prior year. Growth was at 4.8pc in 2021 as the economy recovered from the Covid-19 induced contraction of 3.3pc in 2020. Agriculture contracted by 3.2pc in 2024 after a 15.1pc gain the year prior. The sector's weak performance came as Brazil faced extreme climate events last year that damaged crops , IBGE said. Corn and soybean output fell by 4.6pc and 12.5pc, respectively, according to IBGE. The industrial sector grew by 3.3pc last year after a 1.6pc gain in 2023. Manufacturing industries rose by 3.8pc, driven by a higher output of vehicles, transport equipment, machinery and electric equipment, according to IBGE. Electricity and gas, water and sewage management increased by 3.6pc in 2024 but still decelerated from a 6.5pc gain a year earlier. Higher temperatures throughout 2024 drove the increase, IBGE said. On the other hand, the climate was unfavorable for power generation. The oil, natural gas and mining industry grew by 0.5pc in 2024 from a year earlier. Gross fixed capital formation — which measures how much companies increased their capital goods — rose by 7.3pc from a 3pc contraction in 2023, led by higher domestic output and capital goods imports. Exports rose by 2.9pc, while imports rose by 14.7pc last year. Investment grew by 17pc. Household consumption increased by 4.8pc from a year prior, driven by a 6.6pc unemployment rate — the lowest registered since IBGE started its historic record in 2012 — federal social aid programs and increased lending. Government spending rose by 1.9pc in 2024 from a year earlier. Quarterly GDP Brazil's GDP growth slowed to an annual 3.6pc in the fourth quarter from 4pc in the third quarter, with several sectors contracting, according to IBGE. Agriculture contracted by an annual 1.5pc in the fourth quarter, with 2.9pc and 0.9pc contractions in the wheat and sugarcane crops, respectively, IBGE said. But the industrial sector grew by an annual 2.5pc in the quarter. Manufacturing posted 5.3pc growth, led by the steel sector and higher output of machinery, equipment, vehicles and chemicals. The services sector grew by 3.4pc. The oil, natural gas and mining industry contracted by 3.6pc from a year earlier thanks to a decrease in oil, gas and iron output, IBGE said. Electricity and gas, water, and sewage management fell by an annual 3.5pc, on lower power consumption as power rates became more expensive amid a drought that struck the country in mid-2024. Household consumption grew by an annual 3.7pc, while government spending grew by 1.2pc in the fourth quarter. Gross fixed capital formation increased by an annual 9.4pc in the fourth quarter, according to IBGE. Exports fell by 0.7pc, while imports, which subtract from growth, rose by 16pc. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Libya unveils upstream licensing round details


07/03/25
07/03/25

Libya unveils upstream licensing round details

London, 7 March (Argus) — Libya has unveiled new details from its first upstream oil and gas licensing round in 18 years. The licensing round offers 22 blocks for exploration and development, split equally between onshore and offshore, according to a summary brochure seen by Argus . State-owned NOC said the blocks are estimated to hold in-place resources of more than 10bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe), while nine of the blocks contain undeveloped discoveries with estimated in place reserves of 1.68bn boe. The bid round is being offered up with a new Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) model, replacing the outdated Epsa 4 contract model of Libya's last licensing round in 2007. NOC said the new PSA could increase contractor internal rate of return (IRR) to 35.8pc compared with 2.5pc under existing terms. Contractors would also share profits with NOC from day one, while a fixed rate for cost recovery would shorten the investment payback period. While the licensing round was officially launched on 3 March in Tripoli, little or no detail had been unveiled until today. There still appears to be no publicly available information on the timeline for bid submissions and awards. Libya also appears to have updated its long-standing crude production target of 2mn b/d. The brochure accompanying the licensing round now mentions a "vision to produce 2mn-3mn b/d." Libya currently produces about 1.4mn b/d of crude and 1.2bn ft³/d of gas, which it wants to increase to 4bn ft³/d. Oil minister Khalifa Abdulsadek previously told Argus that the licensing round was primarily aimed at boosting reserves and keeping output steady. The country's political divisions remain a key risk to the success of Libya's output goals and its latest licensing round. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US adds 151,000 jobs in February, unemployment up


07/03/25
07/03/25

US adds 151,000 jobs in February, unemployment up

Houston, 7 March (Argus) — The US added 151,000 nonfarm jobs in February and the unemployment rate ticked higher, but federal jobs fell, possibly reflecting the first of the mass layoffs launched by the new US administration. The job growth was under the 160,000 jobs forecast by analysts surveyed by Trading Economics. It followed upwardly revised job growth of 323,000 in January and downwardly revised growth of 125,000 in December, marking downward combined revisions of 2,000 reported Friday by the Labor Department. Monthly job gains averaged 168,000 over the prior 12 months. Unemployment rose to 4.1pc from 4pc. Average hourly earnings grew at a 4pc annual rate, down from 4.1pc in the prior period. Manufacturing added 10,000 jobs in February, with motor vehicles and parts adding 9,000 jobs. Mining and logging added 5,000. Health care added 52,000 jobs in February, financial activities added 21,000 jobs and transportation and warehousing added 18,000 jobs. Retail trade fell by 11,000. Federal jobs fell by 10,000 in February, possibly reflecting the first of the mass layoffs launched by the new US administration earlier last month. While federal government jobs fell, state and local government jobs grew by 20,000. The employment report comes one day after employment consultancy Challenger, Grey & Christmas reported that US-based employers announced 172,000 job cuts in February, the highest for the month since 2009 , led by federal job cuts. Federal government job cuts totaled 62,242 announced by 17 different agencies as part of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)'s mass layoffs and contract cancellations, Challenger said. Most of the job cuts captured by Challenger were in the latter part of the month, while the government employment report is based on a survey that includes the pay period encompassing the 12th of the month. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hedge funds slash nearly 120TWh off Ice TTF net long


07/03/25
07/03/25

Hedge funds slash nearly 120TWh off Ice TTF net long

London, 7 March (Argus) — Investment funds have slashed close to 120TWh off their near record-high TTF gas net long position on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) in the past three weeks, according to the most recent Ice Commitment of Traders (CoT) report. Investment firms' net long position plummeted to around 175TWh in the week ending 28 February, down by 57TWh from the previous week and by nearly 118TWh from the first week of February. This is investment firms' smallest net long position since the week ending 26 July 2024 ( see net positions graph ). Investment firms cut 151TWh of long positions across the three-week period and closed 34TWh of shorts. This led to an aggregate open position of 520TWh, down from 705TWh in the week ending 7 February. Over the same period, Argus ' benchmark TTF front-month assessment dropped from a peak of €58.16/MWh on 10 February to €44.39/MWh on 28 February, while other prices further down the curve dropped by similar amounts ( see prices graph ). This suggests that the shift in investment firms' positions contributed to the drop in prices. A growing sentiment in the market that Russian gas transit through Ukraine could resume, signalling from the European Commission on more flexibility in meeting storage filling targets, and a mild weather outlook across Europe for March, all contributed to the recent drop in European gas prices. Many market participants have pointed towards a desire to take profits over the past few weeks while prices remained elevated and cut risk exposure as unpredictable geopolitical events, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and US president Trump's tariff policies, have upended many commodity markets. But while investment funds cut their net long position, commercial undertakings — predominantly firms with retail portfolios — flipped to a small 3TWh net long position for the first time since late December and before that September. Their net short position had been as high as 54TWh on 7 February. This was driven mostly through firms closing their short positions, with commercial undertakings cutting 57TWh of risk reduction short contracts — generally used for hedging purposes — between the weeks ending 7 and 28 February, compared with 20TWh of risk reduction longs. In addition to commercial undertakings moving to a net long position, the other main category of market participant, investment/credit firms, slashed their net short position by 80TWh in these three weeks to end at 159TWh. By Brendan A'Hearn Net positions on ICE TTF TWh Argus TTF prices in February €/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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