Azerbaijan needs to pull its weight at Cop 29

Oil and gas producer Azerbaijan, which heads the Cop 29 UN talks, is expected to step up its climate ambitions and lead by example to help craft a critical finance deal. But it lacks the international profile of Cop 28 and Cop 30 hosts, the UAE and Brazil, respectively, its counterparts in the so-called troika.

Azerbaijan has committed to reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions by 35pc against 1990 levels by 2030, and by 40pc by 2050. As in most post-Soviet states, emissions plummeted after independence in 1991, before rebounding with rising oil and gas output. In 2016, emissions stood at 54mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down from 79mn t CO2e in 1990 — so only modest reductions are necessary to reach Azerbaijan's mid-term target of 51.4mn t/yr.

A commitment to absolute reductions places Azerbaijan in a minority among Cop parties. Only 37pc of the latest nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — or climate plans — make this pledge, the UN climate body UNFCCC said last year. And 46pc promise reductions compared with ‘business-as-usual' scenarios, which allow for increases in absolute emissions.

Azerbaijan committed to having renewables accounting for 30pc of power capacity by 2030, up from about 15-17pc in the past decade. The ambition is laudable, but installing a relatively small amount — 1.5GW — of intermittent renewable capacity is unlikely to move the needle much on Azeri power-sector emissions. Cop parties last year pledged to triple global renewable capacity to 11TW by 2030. And the sector makes up only a small part of total Azeri emissions.

As a troika member, Azerbaijan is expected to lead by example by setting more ambitious goals in its next NDC — due in 2025 — after Cop 28 called for a transition away from fossil fuels. The largest source of emissions is oil and gas production, which accounts for 90pc of the country's exports and a third of its GDP, according to the World Bank, which lists Azerbaijan among the countries that have most to lose from the effects of the transition.

Leading from behind

Some low-hanging fruit will allow Azerbaijan to reduce emissions in the sector for little cost. The country signed up to the Global Methane Pledge this year, committing to cut emissions by 30pc by 2030. These emissions have risen by 11pc since Azerbaijan last reported them in 2018, according to NGO Global Witness.

Azerbaijan's role as an increasingly important gas supplier to the EU could constitute a strategic asset, allowing it to assert its weight at the talks, after the presidency fell into its lap last year when Russia vetoed other choices. It sent 12bn m³ of gas to the EU last year and a similar amount to Turkey and Georgia. Azeri president Ilham Aliyev has consistently highlighted the country's ambition to increase exports to the EU to 20bn m³ by 2027, while extolling the parallel pursuit of a "green agenda". But while Europe's need for gas is more acute since the near-halt to Russian supplies in 2022, the easing of the energy crisis means that the continent is no longer quite so desperate to court alternative suppliers.

Otherwise, Azerbaijan would appear to have few of the advantages possessed by other members of the troika, or holders of previous important Cops. It lacks the demographic heft and strong south-south diplomatic ties of Brazil, the wealth and regional influence of the UAE, and the institutional prestige and deep integration in regional blocs of France or the UK.

Agreeing on a new finance goal for developing countries is key at this Cop. And Azerbaijan will need to put aside its regional and global disputes to push through solid commitments from donor countries if the talks are to be considered a success.

By Rhys Talbot

Azerbaijan's gross GHG emissions by sector, 2016