Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Chemicals, Coal, Coking coal, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Freight, LPG, Metals, Oil products, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
23/08/24

The status of rail freight in Canada remains uncertain after a Canadian labor union today issued a new strike notice to Canadian National (CN), less than a day after the federal government forced all parties to participate in binding arbitration.

The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) today issued notice to CN that members will go on strike at 10am ET on 26 August. The union had not issued a strike notice to CN earlier this week, but employees could not work yesterday after the CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked them out.

"We do not believe that any of the matters we have been discussing over the last several days are insurmountable," the union said today in its notice to CN. It said it would be available to discuss issues to avoid another work stoppage.

CN indicated it was frustrated with the union's action.

"While CN is focused on its recovery plan to get back to powering the economy, the Teamsters are focused on returning to the picket line and holding the country hostage to their demands," the railroad said.

CN last night had begun implementing a recovery plan to restore service.

The union has not yet responded to inquiries about its action today. The office of labour minister Steven MacKinnon declined to comment.

Rail operations at CN and CP stopped at 12:01am ET on Thursday after the union launched a strike at CPKC and both railroads locked out employees. That action ended late Thursday afternoon with the federal government directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to manage binding arbitration on the railroads. CIRB, an independent agency, has not yet said if it will accept the government's order.

CN began moving some freight early on 23 August, but the new strike order issued soon by the union today could disrupt those plans. The union has also challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon's order regarding CPKC operations pending the outcome of a new ruling by the CIRB.

CPKC's rail fleet remains parked in the meantime. CPKC said late Thursday it was disappointed in the minister's decision and sought to meet with CIRB to discuss resumption of service.

CPKC said the union "refused to discuss any resumption of service, and instead indicated that they wish to make submissions to challenge the constitutionality of the Minister's direction."

A case management meeting with CIRB occurred last night and another was scheduled for early today.

By Abby Caplan

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27/11/24

US cobalt supply set to tighten under Trump tariffs

London, 27 November (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose new tariffs against China, Mexico and Canada appears set to tighten cobalt metal supplies in the US, as one of the three western brands accepted for most aerospace uses will likely be affected. Trump on the evening of 25 November wrote on his Truth Social platform that he would impose a new 10pc tariff on Chinese goods in addition to a pre-existing 25pc duty on Chinese cobalt, and 25pc duties on Canadian and Mexican goods entering the US. While the impact of the tariff on Chinese metal entering the US would be largely "irrelevant", according to trading firms, the tariff on Canadian cobalt metal could tighten its supply to the US' aerospace market. Brazilian mining group Vale produces cobalt and nickel at its operations in Port Colborne and Long Harbour in Canada's Ontario province. Vale produced 2,300t of cobalt metal last year. The other two large western suppliers of cobalt metal, Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) in Japan and Glencore's Nikkelverk in Norway, produced 3,800t and 3,500t, respectively, comprising a combined western total of 9,600t. "If Canadian (cobalt) now clocks a 25pc duty, that makes SMM and Nikkelverk much more valuable," a trading firm said, adding that some suppliers may have negotiated a tariff clause in contracts this year to avoid any potential impact from the US election. Annual contract negotiations for cobalt have extended longer this year because of uncertainty stemming from the US election in early November. "[Sellers will] have an issue on their long-term contracts if they don't include a tariff clause," a market participant said. Indonesian supply to increase A potential source of cobalt metal that could fill the gap left by the potential absence of Canadian material is Indonesia, which until now has avoided Trump's attention. "The 25pc duty on Canadian imports will impact Vale, basically puts them in a similar status as Chinese, so [we] could see a dramatic drop in imports," a trading firm said. "Normally, this would tighten the market further, but I think this will be easily compensated by the influx of Indonesian metal that will hit the US market." Many ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, have a delicate balancing act to play with Trump. They must navigate between maintaining their relationship with their largest trading partner — in most cases China — and benefiting from US-based global corporations' moves to diversify supply chains away from China. Nowhere is Indonesia's unsteady equilibrium clearer than in the battery market, where several nickel projects, a few which also produce cobalt, are in development thanks to investments from both Chinese and western companies. Some of this cobalt is heading to the US, and several trading companies are confirmed by Argus to have Indonesian material on the water. The new supplies, produced by PT Lygend in Indonesia, are shipped to a warehouse in Ningbo, China, then packaged and sent onwards to the US. Across August and September, Indonesia exported 180t of cobalt metal to China, much of which was shipped to the US. Cut cathodes and that with quality similar to Chinese brands recently have sold on the international market at either side of $10/lb. Similar prices could see Indonesian cobalt compete with existing brands in the US, but it will take "up to two years" to become qualified for use in aerospace applications, a trading source said. Indonesia's trade with the US last year amounted to $23bn, making it the country's second-largest trading partner after China at $65bn. Indonesia's trade with China has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 20pc over the past 10 years, while trade with the US grew at 4.59pc. Indonesia's combined trade with the rest of the world climbed by 7pc over the same period, data show. US investments in Indonesia totalled $67bn from 2014-23, according to a report by the US Chamber of Commerce. "Jakarta's view will continue to be how to extract the most out of both powers and engage more partners for Indonesia's own interest," said research group ASEAN Wonk Global chief executive and founder Prashanth Parameswaran in a recent report for US congressional think-tank the Wilson Center. Trump has clearly indicated a desire to impose tariffs on imports from much of the world, hoping to isolate countries and renegotiate trade deals on terms that are favourable to the US. There is a risk that Indonesia may end up on this list, as fellow ASEAN country Vietnam discovered in 2019, when Trump labelled it the "worst abuser" of US trade policy. But at this point, there is no clear indication either way, and cobalt trading companies are looking to use this opportunity while it lasts. By Thomas Kavanagh Indonesian foreign trade Cobalt metal suppliers t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bangladesh receives DAP, TSP offers in tender

27/11/24

Bangladesh receives DAP, TSP offers in tender

London, 27 November (Argus) — Bangladesh's ministry of agriculture received offers for 60,000t of DAP at $685.30-691/t cfr and 115,000t of TSP at $567.80-600/t cfr in its latest private-sector tender, which closed today. The ministry received two offers for DAP: Bulk Trade International offered 30,000t at $685.30/t cfr Saifullah Gulf offered 30,000t at $691/t cfr The ministry also received six offers for TSP: Bulk Trade International offered 25,000t at $567.80/t cfr Mounota Trade Index offered 20,000t at $573.50/t cfr Noapara Traders offered 30,000t at $573.50/t cfr Saifullah Gulf offered 26,000t at $574/t cfr Alif Trading offered 4,000t at $574/t cfr Noapara Trading offered 10,000t at $600/t cfr Argus understands that much of the product offered in the tender will be shipped from Morocco. There were reports that one of the DAP cargoes offered will be shipped from China. The lowest offers in this latest tender are up compared with those under the ministry's 18 November private-sector tender , which received offers for 120,000t of DAP at $678.40-717/t cfr and 113,000t of TSP at $561.90-585/t cfr. The ministry likely awarded 40,000t of Moroccan DAP to Bulk Trade International at the offered level of $678.40/t cfr, with negotiations ongoing for further cargoes, under the 18 November tender. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: AtJ learnings, mandate critical for Australian SAF

27/11/24

Q&A: AtJ learnings, mandate critical for Australian SAF

Sydney, 27 November (Argus) — Australian bioenergy developer Jet Zero has received strong government backing for its proposed Project Ulysses, an alcohol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project in the northern Queensland state city of Townsville. Argus spoke to chief executive Ed Mason on the sidelines of the Townsville Summit on 27 November about the project's initial engineering. Edited highlights follow: Regarding the proposed 102mn l/yr refinery here in Townsville, what are some of the initial engineering study findings? So with front-end engineering and design (FEED), what we're doing is value engineering, which you typically do at the end of FEED, we're doing it at the front because we've seen so many opportunities to improve on the reference project design in Georgia, US — they're just basically lessons learned from what LanzaJet have seen, as well as what we've identified as opportunities to eliminate, reduce, simplify costs. We've got hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), that's the kind of space rocket that can get you to the moon, we've now got alcohol-to-jet commercialised, which is like the space shuttle — slightly better, which can do more. But we really need to see a SpaceX type of system where you can go up and down and make it more efficient, so it's making those technologies far more capital efficient and better, so that's what we're focused on. W here are negotiations at with refiners Wilmar and Manildra, the two main producers of ethanol in Australia? We basically have constructive discussions in particular with Wilmar, they have surplus capacity, they're vocal supporters of development of the ethanol market, as you know, for many years. We've got ample supply (183mn l/yr) and confidence about what we need for SAF and importantly, assisting that supplier getting that feedstock RSB and Corsia certified. Looking at the regulatory situation at the moment, a low-carbon fuel standard. How critical is that to building a project like yours to final investment? We made a submission on the [low-carbon liquid fuel paper]. We're advocating both supply and demand measures and were fairly aligned with the wider industry submission. We believe a modest mandate, 1-2pc, supports and is ahead of what the project pipeline is, so you're not putting a mandate that can't be achieved by the projects at our stage but that sends a strong signal, like other countries have already sent. Secondly, supply measures around financing like other types of mechanisms you've seen with Hydrogen Headstart , just to get the industry going. How tight is the window for Australia to catch up with the rest of the world? It's very tight. I think we've got to move in the next two years — there is a wall of demand from 2030 and these projects take five years to develop from start to finish. If we don't move in this in the next few years, we'll end up seeing the feedstock develop that market, but not the production of SAF and we'll lose out on those jobs. A standard size plant has been proposed in Townsville, how much room do you have to grow that capacity in Townsville? We'd very much like to be bigger if the market was there for ethanol. We've sized it at the minimum size that we feel can deliver commercial volumes of SAF at a price that's in line with benchmark, but the bigger you go, the bigger economies of scale you get. These are modules, we can increase and add another train to Townsville quite easily, so a huge opportunity to grow that. The actual plant construction timeframe, what does that look like? The longest lead item is 14 months, but I'd assume two years. So if we are at final investment decision in the second half of next year, we could conceivably see this project start producing SAF by the second half of 2027. Is sugarcane going to be sufficient for growing AtJ SAF, or will we need other feedstock in the future? The sugarcane industry has theoretically got the biggest contributing opportunity, particularly short to medium term with this industry. But you've got agave, you've got other types of crops that can produce like sorghum and other types of sources of ethanol that can be used, and they are a potentially medium-to-long-term supply opportunity. [Farming lobby] Canegrowers ran a fairly extensive campaign around the potential of biofuels in the last Queensland state election, and we've seen other bodies in the sugar industry run similar campaigns so the industry, from grower to miller, is supportive of developing the industry. We've only seen sugar mills close in north Queensland over the last decade, I think ultimately the rest of the world's sugar industry has already moved on [biofuels]. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's BOM forecasts severe cyclone season

27/11/24

Australia's BOM forecasts severe cyclone season

Sydney, 27 November (Argus) — Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) expects the country to experience 11 tropical storms over the next few months, threatening the country's mineral-rich Pilbara region and coal infrastructure in Queensland. The number of storms is in line with historical averages, but BOM warns that rising ocean temperatures could increase their severity. The state weather agency believes that four of these storms will make landfall from late December, and that a La Nina event could start later this year, although it may not last very long. La Nina events are associated with high levels of cyclonic activity. BOM's forecasts suggest that five of the storms are likely to form around Western Australia's mineral-rich Pilbara region, which houses more than 40 operating iron ore mines and two lithium mines. Over the last three months, sea surface temperatures around Pilbara have exceeded historical averages by 1.2–2°C, warming more than in any of the country's other cyclone-prone regions. On the other side of the country, four tropical storms could form around Queensland's cattle and coking coal producing regions, although these are likely to be less severe than the Pilbara storms. Temperatures across most of Queensland are forecast to exceed historical averages by 0.4–1.2°C in October-December. Cyclonic weather in Pilbara could disrupt iron shipping and mining activity in the region. Australia's three largest iron export ports sit along the region's coast. In 2019, Cyclone Veronica forced the closure of Pilbara's three major ports and multiple mines operated by mining company Rio Tinto, prompting the firm to cut its production forecasts for the year. Harsh storms in Queensland have previously damaged vital coal transport links in the state, hampering exports. In 2017, Cyclone Debbie damaged rail lines linking coal mines to the ports of Gladstone, Hay Point, Dalrymple Bay, and Abbott Point, which handle most of the state's coking coal exports. More recently, severe weather also halted deliveries to Mackay port . Queensland and Pilbara are also home to major LNG terminals at Dampier and Gladstone ports that sit within cyclone-prone zones. The two terminals together export over 3mn t/month of LNG . By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Traders expect Opec+ to delay output increase

26/11/24

Traders expect Opec+ to delay output increase

London, 26 November (Argus) — Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor representatives today suggested that Opec+ members would probably continue to delay their plan to start increasing crude production. The comments from three of the world's biggest trading firms come just days before the Opec+ alliance is set to hold a ministerial meeting on 1 December to decide its output policy for next year. At the top of the agenda is whether eight members will begin returning 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts over a 12-month period starting in January — three months later than originally planned. "I think there's no room for them to increase," Gunvor chief executive Torbjorn Tornqvist said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London today. "So far they've been very disciplined and they've made the right call not to add any oil," he said. Most forecasters predict weak oil demand next year, with the market flipping into a surplus. "I suspect that the barrels coming back will again be deferred," Trafigura's global head of oil Ben Luckock said. "Exactly how long? Probably not that far, but they have the choice to be able to continue to [delay] and they probably don't enjoy the price right now." The front-month Ice Brent crude futures is currently trading around $73/bl, around $20/bl below where prices were before Opec+ announced its initial output cut in October 2022. The alliance has reduced output by about 4mn b/d since then, Argus estimates. "The likelihood is that Opec will try to manage the market through the next two to three months to wait to see how some of these geopolitical aspects solve themselves," Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said. All three executives pointed to geopolitical uncertainties such as the incoming US administration's Iran sanctions policy, the trajectory of the Ukraine-Russia war and the conflict in the Middle East as potential market movers in 2025. Luckock also stressed the importance of compliance for the Opec+ alliance. "I think compliance is a huge deal, because a cheating Opec doesn't yield higher prices." Members including Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia have tended to exceed their production targets this year, tarnishing the credibility of the alliance. But a long-running Saudi-led effort to get these countries to comply and compensate appears to be bearing fruit. The three executives also gave their traditional forecasts for what the oil price would be in 12 months. Tornqvist said he expected prices to be similar to today's levels at $70/bl, which he described as "fair" given the world's large spare production capacity and declining production costs. Luckock said it was a "mug's game" forecasting 12-months out, particularly given the range of geopolitical uncertainties on the horizon. When pressed for a number he settled on $75/bl, but said this was not particularly useful to anyone. Hardy stuck with his previous forecast of $70-80/bl. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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