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Opec+ members agree to delay output increase: Update

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 05/09/24

Adds details from Opec statement

Opec+ members have agreed to delay a plan to start increasing output by two months, following a virtual meeting today.

Eight members of the group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — are now scheduled to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" crude production cuts from December over a 12-month period, the Opec Secretariat said in a statement. They previously planned to start unwinding in October.

The return of these barrels is still not a foregone conclusion. The eight members retain the "flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments as necessary", the secretariat said. If they go ahead with their updated plan, their collective output targets will rise by around 180,000 b/d in December.

The delay to the output increase follows a steep fall in oil prices in recent days after worse-than-expected economic data in China and the US, and despite an ongoing oil blockade in Libya. The Opec statement did not specify the reason for the decision, nor did it make any note of market fundamentals.

The secretariat did, however, highlight assurances by Iraq and Kazakhstan to compensate for producing above their output targets since the start of the year. Both countries have "committed to adjust compensation plans for any over produced volumes in August", Opec said.


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21/01/25

Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update

Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update

Updates with changes throughout Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump pledged today to declare a "national energy emergency" as one of the first acts of his second term in office and has signed a series of executive orders designed to bring down energy costs, including pulling the US out of the Paris climate agreement. The executive orders on energy, trade and other issues will restore "common sense" in US policy, Trump said during his second inaugural address, moments after being sworn in at the US Capitol. The executive orders and emergency declaration are intended to expedite permitting of energy infrastructure, tackle inflation, roll back climate programs put in place under former president Joe Biden and pursue what Trump says is a policy to "drill, baby, drill". Trump signed his first set of executive orders during a rally tonight with supporters and plans to sign more orders later tonight at the White House. The first executive orders will implement an "immediate regulation freeze", put a temporary hold on hiring workers and rescind 78 of Biden's executive actions and memoranda. Trump also signed a directive to federal agencies to take steps to reduce the cost-of-living, along with a separate order that will withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord for a second time. "I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off," Trump said at a rally later in the day. "The United States will not sabotage their own industries while China pollutes with impunity." Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under Biden — and revoke an "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector. Trump also vowed to begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and reiterated his support for tariffs, which he sees as a way to raise government revenue and support domestic manufacturing. "Tariffs are going to make us rich as hell," Trump said. They are "going to bring our country's businesses back that left us." But it remains unclear if Trump will move ahead with his threatened 25pc tariff against Canada that oil industry officials have said could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada. On foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a threat that Panamanian president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected . "We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said. Trump is expected to take action soon to restart licensing of US LNG export terminals and support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Trump said he wants the US to take advantage of its vast oil and gas reserves, which he said would reduce energy prices and increase energy exports. Trump also said he wants to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which is at 55pc of its capacity with 394mn bl of crude in storage, "right to the top". Refilling the SPR would require the US Congress to appropriate $32bn at current prices, to offset the costs of canceling 100mn bl of upcoming mandatory crude sales and buying about 300mn bl of crude. Trump has yet to specify which parts of Biden's climate legislation he will work to overturn, which also would require congressional action. But the White House said the administration would consider rescinding all federal rules that put "undue burdens" on energy producers and stop leasing federal land to wind farms. "We're not going to do the wind thing," Trump said. That drew an outcry from offshore wind advocacy group Turn Forward, whose executive director Hillary Bright said an emergency should require unleashing "all necessary sources of American energy — including offshore wind." During his campaign, Trump promised to cut the price of energy by 50pc within 12 months of taking office. But with regular grade gasoline averaging close to $3/USG and Henry Hub natural gas prices less $4/mmBtu this month, such a dramatic cut in prices would be difficult to achieve without causing major disruptions to industry. Environmentalists and Democratic-led states are also preparing to file lawsuits challenging Trump's deregulatory actions, a strategy they used during his first term with mixed success. Trump was sworn in in a relatively small ceremony inside the US Capitol, after calling off a more traditional, outdoor inauguration because of temperatures that were hovering around 23° F. Among those in attendance was Telsa chief executive Elon Musk, who spent more than $250mn to help elect Trump and is chairing a cost-cutting advisory panel. After being sworn in, Trump formally nominated his cabinet members, leaving it up to the Republican-controlled US Senate to hold confirmation votes. Trump also named Republicans to lead 15 independent agencies. Trump named Mark Christie as chairman of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Mark Uyeda as acting chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission,and Patrick Fuchs as chair of the US Surface Transportation Board. Caroline Pham became acting chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission through a vote of its members. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump sworn in with vow to 'drill, baby, drill'


20/01/25
20/01/25

Trump sworn in with vow to 'drill, baby, drill'

Washington, 20 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump, within minutes of being sworn in for a second term in office, pledged today to declare a "national energy emergency" and sign executive orders to expand drilling, block electric vehicle regulations and end the climate policies of his predecessor. In his second inaugural address delivered inside the rotunda of the US Capitol, Trump vowed to put "America first" and make the US "greater, stronger and far more exceptional than ever before". Trump said he will sign a raft of executive orders to restore "common sense" in US policy, including a directive for his administration to "defeat" inflation by increasing drilling and rolling back climate-related policies. "The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency," Trump said. "We will drill, baby, drill." It remains unclear if Trump will take action soon on his plan to pursue across-the-board import tariffs, or a threatened 25pc tariff against Canada that oil industry officials have said could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada. Trump said today he would immediately begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and to start to "tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens". In an often-dark, bellicose address reminiscent of his "American carnage" speech eight years ago, the 47th president of the US promised to "reverse the horrible betrayal" and "give the people back their faith, their wealth, their democracy and, indeed ,their freedom. "From this moment on, America's decline is over," Trump declared. In foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a threat that president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected . "We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said. Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. US interior secretary nominee Doug Burgum, at a confirmation hearing last week, said emergency action was needed because of a looming "crisis" with the electric grid that he said could result in higher prices and slowing the growth of artificial intelligence data centers. Trump is expected to take action soon to restart licensing of US LNG export terminals and support drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Trump said he wanted the US to take advantage of its vast oil and gas reserves, which he said would reduce energy prices, increase energy exports and refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which now holds 394mn bl of crude and is at 55pc of its capacity, "right to the top". Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under former president Joe Biden — and revoke a federal "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector. Trump has yet to specify which parts of Biden's climate legislation he will overturn, but the White House said the administration intends to consider rescinding all federal regulations that impose "undue burdens" on energy production, end leasing of federal land to wind farms and roll back energy efficiency standards for consumer goods. The White House also said Trump will once again pull the US out of the Paris climate agreement. During his campaign, Trump promised he would cut the price of energy by 50pc within 12 months of taking office. But with regular grade gasoline averaging close to $3/USG and Henry Hub natural gas prices less $4/mmBtu this month, such a dramatic cut in prices would be difficult to achieve without causing major disruptions to industry. Environmentalists and Democratic-led states are also preparing to file lawsuits challenging Trump's deregulatory actions, a strategy they used during his first term with mixed success. Trump was sworn in in a relatively small ceremony inside the US Capitol, after calling off a more traditional, outdoor inauguration because of temperatures that were hovering around 23° F. Among those in attendance was Telsa chief executive Elon Musk, who spent more than $250mn to help elect Trump and is chairing a cost-cutting advisory panel, and other tech industry billionaires. Florida governor Ron Desantis (R). Indiana governor Mike Braun (R) and other top Republicans watched the inauguration remotely. Former president Joe Biden today issued pardons to former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff retired Gen. Mark Milley, key medical adviser during the Covid-19 pandemic Anthony Fauci, leaders of the committee that investigated Trump's actions leading up to the 6 January 2020 attack on the US Capitol, and members of his own family. Biden said those he pardoned did nothing wrong but worried they could face "baseless and politically motivated investigations". By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada's Trans Mountain investigating capacity increase


17/01/25
17/01/25

Canada's Trans Mountain investigating capacity increase

Calgary, 17 January (Argus) — The operator behind Trans Mountain's 890,000 b/d pipeline system in western Canada is looking into increasing its capacity as export congestion looms, while threatened US tariffs may prompt the country to re-examine its broader pipeline strategy. "We have started to identify and investigate opportunities that could improve the throughput efficiency of the system and increase capacity of the pipeline — ideally in the next four to five years," Trans Mountain told Argus on Friday. Federally-owned Trans Mountain would not say how much of an increase it was contemplating, but any plans would be subject to thorough regulatory reviews and approval before proceeding. The system connects producers in oil-rich Alberta to the docks at Burnaby, British Columbia, and its capacity was roughly tripled when the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) was placed into service in May 2024. The increased system has been a popular outlet for shippers, both for selling to US West coast refiners, but also for producers looking to bypass the US altogether and target Asian countries. Trans Mountain is expected to be full by 2028, chief executive Mark Maki told a parliamentary committee in October , as are other lines which have operators like Enbridge also looking to up egress capacity. The laying of new pipe may not necessarily be a big part of these increases as both are looking at making their systems more efficient. TMX is expected to cost about C$34bn ($24bn) after enduring regulatory delays, political and environmental resistance, court orders, wildfires, floods, Covid-19 measures, and rising labor costs caused by competing pipelines since being proposed in 2013. Other proposed export pipelines like Enbridge's 525,000 b/d Northern Gateway and TC Energy's 1.1mn b/d Energy East did not get past the approval stage under a federal Liberal government. Alberta premier Danielle Smith on 16 January called on Canada to "immediately start construction on the Northern Gateway and Energy East pipelines" to decrease the country's reliance on US customers in the wake of threatened tariffs by president-elect Donald Trump. Prime minister Justin Trudeau and all Canadian premiers, except Smith, have not ruled out the use of Canada's energy — most of which comes from Alberta — in retaliation to US tariffs. Smith has been labeled by some as not being part of a unified front for Canada, but she questions where the "Team Canada" approach has been in the past, citing suffocating regulations for the energy industry and decades of transfer payments made to Quebec, Ontario and the Maritime provinces at the expense of Alberta taxpayers. There is precedent for Smith's concerns, referencing a clash between Alberta and prime minister Pierre Trudeau, Justin's father, in 1973 when a federal tax was imposed on Canadian oil exported to the US amid the Arab oil embargo. Conflict peaked again in the early 1980s when the Trudeau government introduced its National Energy Program, which included price controls on domestic oil. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMF upgrades global growth outlook


17/01/25
17/01/25

IMF upgrades global growth outlook

Washington, 17 January (Argus) — The IMF is taking a slightly more upbeat view of the prospects for the global economy, revising upward its expectations for the US economy. But IMF officials are warning about the potential for higher inflation in the US if president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his threats to impose broad tariffs on all US imports from Canada, Mexico and China. "Higher tariffs or immigration curbs will play out like negative supply shocks, reducing output and adding to price pressures," IMF head of research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. In an update to its World Economic Outlook released today, the IMF projected the global economy will grow by what it called a "stable, albeit lackluster rate" of 3.3pc this year and again by 3.3pc in 2026. The IMF's new 2025 outlook is 0.1 percentage points higher than its 3.2pc forecast in its October report. The IMF expects the US economy, spurred by continued strength in domestic demand, to grow by 2.7pc this year, a 0.5 percentage point increase from its forecast in October. China's economy is projected to grow by 4.6pc this year, up by 0.1 percentage point from the IMF's October forecast. The euro area is expected to grow by 1pc. Last year, the world economy grew by an estimated 3.2pc, compared with 3.3pc in 2023, the IMF said. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including at the Paris-based energy watchdog IEA, to model oil demand projections. Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2pc this year and 3.5pc in 2026, with pricing pressures easing in advanced economies more quickly than in emerging and developing economies. Gourinchas noted that while it is difficult to quantify the effects of the policy changes Trump has vowed to implement, "they are likely to push inflation higher in the near term" relative to the IMF's baseline. Looser fiscal policy or deregulation would stimulate demand and increase inflation, as spending and investment rise. "A combination of surging demand and shrinking supply would likely reignite US price pressures, though the effect on economic output in the near term would be ambiguous," Gourinchas said. IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva and other economists have warned in recent years about the rising tide of protectionist measures implemented by the advanced economies, including the US and the EU. A recent IMF forecast scenario that involves a trade war between the US, Europe and China would reduce the global and US GDP annual growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points in 2025-30, with smaller effects in the eurozone and China. That scenario did not account for a possible trade war between the US and its immediate neighbors, which also has the potential to disrupt an integrated North American energy market. By David Ivanovich and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce


17/01/25
17/01/25

Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce

Dubai, 17 January (Argus) — The Yemen-based Houthi militant group said it will monitor implementation of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Gaza-based Hamas, raising the possibility of a reprieve for shipping in the Red Sea, but will remain prepared for military action if the deal is breached. "Our position regarding the situation in Gaza is linked to the position of our brothers in the Palestinian [armed] factions," Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said in a televised speech on 16 January. "We will continue to monitor the stages of implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, and any Israeli [violation], we will be directly ready to support militarily the Palestinian people." Al-Houthi's remarks suggest a halt in his Iran-backed group's campaign against shipping passing through the mouth of the Red Sea and against Israel directly. But with no clarity if he was referring to attacks on Israel or shipping lanes, shipping firms are likely to remain cautious about returning to the Red Sea. The Houthis began attacking commercial vessels with western and Israeli affiliations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden following an escalation of fighting between Hamas and Israel. Al-Houthi said his group have carried out 1,255 operations, including using ballistic missiles, drones and gunboats, since November 2023. But the risk of an attack in the Red Sea remains despite the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, tanker owner Frontline said today. "We [are] all hopeful with the ceasefire, but… any ceasefire will be vulnerable with risk of [a] crew being caught if it breaks," Frontline chief executive Lars Barstad wrote on X. The possibility of an attack has compelled many ship operators to forego the Suez Canal in favor of longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope in the last year, adding time and cost to movement of commodities. Transit of liquid and dry cargoes through the Suez Canal totaled 343mn t last year, less than half the 763mn t in 2023, according to data from Kpler. The ceasefire deal was announced late on Wednesday, 15 January, by Qatar and the US, two of the three countries that have been helping to mediate the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Egypt is the third. Israel's security cabinet will meet today to sign off on the deal, and will send it for approval from the full government. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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