Cop 29 boost key to setting much-awaited 2035 targets
As focus shifts to setting new emissions-reduction targets for 2035 against a backdrop of under-promised and undelivered 2030 goals, November's UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, will need to provide the much lacking fuel to power the previous summit's ideals.
Countries will be expected to submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris climate agreement — emissions cut targets, this time for 2035 — in November-February, as part of a cycle that requires countries to "ratchet up" their commitments every five years. Denmark's climate minister Dan Jorgensen said this year forthcoming NDCs "have to be informed by the decisions [at Cop 28] in Dubai and will be measured on their meaning".
The global stocktake signed there last year included an energy section calling for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems", a tripling of renewable capacity by 2030 and for "accelerating action in this critical decade", giving the direction countries need to take in the energy transition.
But the agreement has little momentum. Although some countries, including the UK, have signalled they have made a start on their 2035 plans, work remains very much in progress. The UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil — the so-called Cop presidencies troika — in July encouraged parties to "step up the work" ahead of Cop 29, calling on "early movers" to signal their commitments as early as this month.
Among major emitters, the EU has yet to set its 2035 targets, although the European Commission has proposed a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90pc by 2040 from a 1990 baseline. The US said it would develop an "ambitious" new plan within the UN deadline. But any developments will hinge on the results of the country's election taking place just days before Cop 29 starts. And China recently unveiled new guidelines, but stopped short of issuing new targets.
Shaky foundations
Countries will need to increase previous ambition levels significantly for the new targets to be sufficient. Even if all 2030 plans submitted up to 25 September last year were implemented, emissions reductions would still be at least 11bn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) short of what is needed to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and 19bn t of CO2e short for 1.5°C — the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement — according to the UN.
Australia was the sole G20 member on track to meet its 2030 target for outright emissions reductions as of last October, according to IEA analysis. And only Australia, Canada, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the US, EU, UK and Brazil have outright emissions-reduction targets. Other G20 members are either measuring their emissions against business-as-usual scenarios or capping them at a specified level, which leaves space for further increases.
Room for manoeuvre grows ever smaller, with an 80pc likelihood that the average global temperature across one of the next five years will breach the 1.5°C target, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. Last year was the warmest on record, averaging 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels.
Cop 29 could be the catalyst needed to step up action, particularly for countries that would struggle financially to implement stricter measures. Parties will agree a new climate finance goal at the summit and resume talks on the outstanding elements of carbon market mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris deal, another way in which mitigation outcomes and finance can be transferred between regions. But success hinges, as ever, on high levels of co-operation between countries with conflicting interests, something that has already seen Article 6 disagreements rumble on for years.
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Singapore’s SP to launch 240MW solar project in China
Singapore’s SP to launch 240MW solar project in China
Singapore, 6 September (Argus) — Singapore's state-owned utility SP plans to start up a 240MW peak (MWp) agrivoltaic project in Guangdong province's Huizhou city, which will be fully operational by the end of this year. MWp refers to the maximum power output potential a solar farm has when reaching ideal conditions. SP expects the project to generate 7.5bn kWh of green electricity over the next 25 years, reduce coal use by 920,000t and avoid 4.46mn t/yr of carbon emissions. The project's solar installation capacity is 240MW, and marks SP's largest solar investment in China, the company said on 5 September. SP has secured 1.45GW of solar projects in China to date, spanning 18 provinces and municipalities. SP in May also partnered with China environmental technology solutions provider Qingdao Daneng Environmental Protection Equipment to invest and build a 90MW aquavoltaic farm in Qingdao city. This will power a green hydrogen facility in Qingdao, likely referring to Chinese refiner Sinopec's 4,500 t/yr facility . The solar project has an investment value of over 76mn Singapore dollars ($58.5mn) and is on track to connect to the grid by the end of the year. SP expects it to produce 162mn kWh/yr of green electricity and reduce carbon emissions by 160,000 t/yr. The operational model will incorporate renewable energy generation, grid integration, demand-side management, and energy storage. SP's first investment in solar assets was in June 2023, for 78MWp of agrivoltaics assets across four agricultural sites in the Dabu county of Meizhou city in Guangdong province. The project will generate 91.3GWh/yr of clean electricity, and reduce coal usage by almost 30,000t, which amounts to cutting more than 91,000 t/yr of carbon emissions. The operational date of this project was not disclosed. SP in May entered a strategic alliance with Shanghai-based CMB Financial Leasing to obtain financing services, which is expected to reach up to 8bn yuan ($1.13bn) over the next three years, to support the firm's deployment of renewable energy solutions in China. The projects will span utility-scale solar farms, distributed solar photovoltaic, energy storage, and district cooling and heating. By Joey Chan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Asia's coal phaseout needs emissions disclosures: IEEFA
Asia's coal phaseout needs emissions disclosures: IEEFA
Singapore, 5 September (Argus) — The phasedown of Asian coal-powered plants requires stricter emissions disclosures, which will in turn reduce investment, said speakers at an Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) conference this week. One of the biggest short-term challenges for coal-fired abatement is that the coal price has halved from about $240/t to about $130/t right now, said energy finance analyst at IEEFA, Ghee Peh, on 3 September at the IEEFA Energy Finance 2024conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The greater shift towards renewable energy means that demand for coal-fired power is falling, but coal plants are still profitable and coal prices will eventually rebound as new supply is limited. "So what we can do as a larger group is to continue to pressure the financing side," said Peh. This can be done by encouraging greater emissions disclosure, which will then influence investors' decisions, he added. "The good news is that in Asia, Singapore, Hong Kong are moving towards disclosures by next year on Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions, so investors will know how much a company emits, and that will contribute to a very decisive investor response," said Peh, adding that local regulators should put the onus on companies to disclose their emissions as soon as possible. Coal-mine methane emissions Methane is one of the most potent greenhouse gases (GHGs) and coal mining is one of the biggest sources of methane emissions. Just over 40mn t of coal-mine methane (CMM) was released into the atmosphere in 2022, according to IEA data, representing more than 10pc of total methane emissions from human activity. The EU approved a regulation on 27 May that requires the measuring, reporting and verifying of methane emissions from coal, oil and fossil gas exploration and production, distribution and underground storage, including LNG. It also establishes equivalence of methane monitoring, reporting and verification measures from 1 January 2027, and EU importers by mid-2030 have to demonstrate that the methane intensity of the production of crude, natural gas and coal imported to the EU is below maximum methane intensity values. It is therefore important to address CMM as this affects countries in Asia, said independent global energy think tank Ember's CMM programme director Eleanor Whittle. At the moment, none of the 10 biggest exporting countries to the EU meet its standards. But CMM emissions are rarely ever reported or even properly measured, she added, and measuring CMM could even double companies' reported emissions. "We did research that found that in Australia, a shift to company-led emissions reporting — but without verification — meant that overnight, hundreds of thousands [of tonnes] of carbon dioxide equivalent in the form of methane were erased, but without any mitigation or change in coal mining," said Whittle. This shows that even without improvements in the framework methane measurement and verification frameworks, policy shifts like these can still have a profound impact on short-term warming, she said. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Parliament discusses EU’s Cop 29 negotiating position
Parliament discusses EU’s Cop 29 negotiating position
Brussels, 4 September (Argus) — The European Parliament today continued discussions on a draft resolution which will shape the EU's negotiating stance at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in November. But groups within the EU disagree on elements of the draft, including the bloc's own emissions reduction targets. The European Commission has a preferred target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90pc by 2040, from a 1990 baseline, but this remains a proposal. The European scientific advisory board recommended a 90-95pc cut in GHGs over the same timeframe. "We will block any mention of 95pc [emissions cuts]… For 90pc, we need more conditions. We must stop setting targets without knowing how to achieve them," German EPP member Peter Liese told Argus , after a meeting of parliament's environment committee. The centre-right EPP is the largest party in th EU parliament. Liese is pushing for the European Commission to focus more on "enabling" infrastructure for carbon capture and storage (CCS), accelerating the permitting process for renewables, and decarbonising industry. And while Liese personally supports a 90pc GHG reduction target, he noted that his EPP group is "not yet there". Spanish centre-left S&D member Javi Lopez wants the EU to maintain ambitious climate goals for the sake of the entire planet, advocating for more ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Renew Europe's Swedish liberal Emma Wiesner also wants more ambition, calling the current draft resolution "very weak". Wiesner criticised the omission of strong wording on carbon pricing in the resolution. Parliament should focus on establishing a global price on CO2 and prevent Cop 29 discussions from using Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to obscure emissions reductions through removals, Wiesner said. Article 6 allows countries to transfer carbon credits earned from cutting GHG emissions to help other countries meet their climate targets. And groups are not yet aligned on climate finance — the topic set to take centre stage at Cop 29. The EU cannot bear the entire cost of climate action, Portuguese EPP member Lidia Pereira said. Countries like China, Singapore and Saudi Arabia should also contribute more to climate financing, she said. Czech conservative ECR member Alexandr Vondra echoed this sentiment. "It's impossible for us to pay the bills for the whole world," he said. Austrian Green member Lena Schilling wants any Baku agreement to provide a new post-2025 climate finance goal — the next stage of the current $100bn/yr target for international climate finance. Schilling further called for the EU to advocate for a phase-out of coal by 2030, gas by 2035, and oil by 2040 "at the latest". By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New Zealand carbon credit auction fails to clear again
New Zealand carbon credit auction fails to clear again
Sydney, 4 September (Argus) — New Zealand's quarterly carbon allowance auction failed to clear today for the second consecutive time this year, with no bids submitted as prices in the secondary market have been below the regulated auction price floor. A total of 7.6mn New Zealand emissions units (NZUs) were left unsold on 4 September, including 4.08mn remaining from the previous two quarterly auctions of 2024, with the June sale also attracting no bids . The secondary market closed at NZ$61.95 ($38) on 3 September, the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX) and European Energy Exchange (EEX) — which jointly operate the country's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction — said on 4 September. This is below the regulated auction price floor of NZ$64. All available units will now be rolled over to the final 2024 auction on 4 December, when around 11.13mn NZUs will be offered. All unsold volumes in the year will be cancelled, adding to the 23mn units that were written off in 2023 as all four auctions that year failed . The New Zealand carbon market has been struggling with a growing oversupply in recent years. The coalition government, following advice from the country's Climate Change Commission (CCC), announced in August it will more than halve auction volumes over 2025-29 to 21.2mn from 45mn to tackle the situation. Auction volumes will be 6mn in 2025, with 1.5mn per quarter, while the auction price floor will rise to NZ$68. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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