30/12/24
Viewpoint: Cu smelting capacity to outpace mining
Viewpoint: Cu smelting capacity to outpace mining
Shanghai, 30 December (Argus) — The global copper concentrate market will likely
remain tight in 2025, as an expected rise in copper smelting production capacity
is set to outpace new copper mining projects and expansions. Argus expects 2.8mn
t/yr of copper smelting capacity to come on stream next year, with 1.25mn t/yr
of this coming from China and 1.55mn t/yr from the rest of the world. Major
Chinese copper producer Tongling Nonferrous plans to launch two copper smelters
in the second half of 2025, with a combined production capacity of 800,000 t/yr.
The firm's 500,000 t/yr Tongling Jinxin smelter is expected to start up in the
middle of 2025, pushed back from an initial launch date of the end of this year
because of tight supply of copper concentrate feedstock. And the firm's 300,000
t/yr Tongling Jintong smelter is projected to start operations in October, with
200,000 t/yr of refined copper and 100,000 t/yr of copper anode production. But
the company has not confirmed if it has secured enough copper concentrate to
support either project. Major Chinese metals producer Guangxi Jinchuan
Nonferrous is expected to begin operations at its new smelter at the end of this
year, with a copper anode output capacity of 300,000 t/yr. And fellow domestic
company Huading Copper finished building a new 100,000 t/yr refined copper
project in November, according to market participants. Elsewhere, Indian
conglomerate Adani launched a 500,000 t/yr smelter earlier this year and is
expected to steadily ramp up to production capacity by 2026. Indonesian mining
company PT Amman had planned to launch a 200,000 t/yr copper smelter in the
fourth quarter of this year. US-based firm Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary is
projected to resume production at its 300,000 t/yr Manyar smelter in the third
quarter of 2025 after the facility was brought off line following a fire in
October. And a 500,000 t/yr blister copper smelter at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in
the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to begin production in February.
Supply growth Growth in copper concentrate supply next year is expected to
mainly come from expansion projects at existing mines, with 1.2mn t/yr of
additional mining capacity in the pipeline, according to Argus calculations. The
first phase of Russia's Malmyzh mine is due to start operations in 2025, with a
copper production capacity of 150,000 t/yr. Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi mine will
continue ramping up production next year, in a bid to lift its copper output to
500,000 t/yr by 2028 from 168,100t in 2023. And the commissioning of
Kamoa-Kakula's phase 3 in August 2024 will lift copper output at the mine to
600,000 t/yr in 2025 from 450,000 t/yr previously. Two mining expansions in
Chile are expected to boost global copper production next year. Australian
mining group BHP is scheduled to lift copper cathode output at its Escondida
mine to 410,000 t/yr over a 10-year period, having produced 198,600t in the July
2023-June 2024 fiscal year. And Chilean copper producer Codelco's El Teniente
mining project is due to increase copper output to 500,000 t/yr by 2025 from
245,500 t/yr in January-September. Lower utilisation rates But mining supply
growth may be insufficient to meet the additional demand from new and expanded
smelting capacity, meaning global copper smelters will likely have to reduce
their utilisation rates to 70pc in 2025 from 75pc this year, according to
industry forecasts. "The Onsan copper smelter in South Korea is likely to cut
its output by 100,000t to 550,000t for 2025, because of concentrate supply
tightness," a trading company told Argus . Some Chinese smelters have already
cut production capacity in response to tight copper concentrate supply or
because of accidents at their facilities. "Liaoning Shenghai Copper, Guangxi
Nanguo Copper, Baiyin Nonferrous, Chifeng Fubang Copper and Daye Yangxin
Hongsheng have suspended operations, removing a combined 1mn t/yr of production
capacity," a trader said. Extended talks over 2025 benchmarks Annual benchmark
talks between Chinese smelters and representatives from Chile-based mining firm
Antofagasta for copper concentrate supplies in 2025 were subject to long delays.
Major Chinese smelter Jiangxi Copper and Antofagasta finally settled their
treatment and refining charges for copper concentrate supplies for 2025 on 5
December, at $21.25/t and 2.125¢/Ib respectively, down from $80/t and 8.0¢/Ib in
2024, according to market participants. Chinese copper smelters and overseas
concentrate suppliers usually agree charges during the Asia Copper Week
conference, which was this year held in Shanghai over 13-14 November. But
settlements were delayed to early December because of the two sides' significant
differences in price ideas. Antofagasta quoted $10/t for treatment charges in
the first round of negotiations, but smelters bid $45/t and conceded to $35/t,
market participants told Argus . New copper mining capacity/expansions '000 t/yr
Mine Location Capacity Start-up Oyu Tolgoi Mongolia 300 2025-28 Kamoa DRC 150
3Q24 Kansanshi S3 Zambia 55 mid-2025 El Teniente new mine level Chile 170 1Q25
Comide DRC 40 end of 2025 Malmyzh Russia 150 2025 Escondida Full Sal Chile 200
3Q24-2Q25 Tongling Non-Ferrous Mirador II Ecuador 75 Jun-25 Salvado Rajo Inca
Peru 90 late 2024 Total 1,230 — Argus New copper smelter capacity '000 t/yr
Smelter Location Capacity Start-up Tongling Jintong Copper Inner Mongolia, China
300 Oct-25 Yunnan Copper relocate Yunnan, China 50 late 2024 Guangxi Jinchuan
Guangxi, China 300 end of 2024 Tongling Jinxin Copper Anhui, China 500 mid-2025
Huading Copper Inner Mongolia, China 100 2025 Adani India 500 2024-26 Freeport
Indonesia Indonesia 300 3Q25 PT Amman Indonesia 200 4Q24 Kamoa-Kakula DRC 500
Feb-25 Kansanshi S3 Zambia 55 mid-2025 Total 2,805 — Argus Send comments and
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