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Northvolt's future unclear as Sweden rejects stake

  • Spanish Market: Battery materials, Metals
  • 20/09/24

The future of Swedish battery and cathode active material (CAM) producer Northvolt is unclear after the country's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed this week that the government will not invest in the company. Northvolt has had to cut back its expansion plans because of challenging macroeconomic and market conditions.

Northvolt's difficulties were thrown into the spotlight last week when chief executive and co-founder Peter Carlsson said the company will scale back its expansion plans for a second CAM factory in Borlange, Sweden – a facility that is intended to help ease regional dependence on imports from China which currently accounts for over 70pc of global CAM production, according to the IEA.

The adjustment at Borlange is one of several setbacks at Northvolt, whose Skellefteå factory in the far north of Sweden delivered less than 1GWh of battery production last year – enough to power around 20,000 cars and far below the plant's nameplate capacity of 16GWh. Back in June, German carmaker BMW pulled out of a €2bn ($2.2bn) order, albeit just 4pc of Northvolt's order book of $55bn, according to its 2022 annual report – underscoring the slowdown in European demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and therefore battery materials.

Carlsson maintains that the "long term outlook for cell manufacturers — including Northvolt — is strong", despite the "challenging macroeconomic environment."

And while the Swedish government has declined to invest, Northvolt did receive a €5bn ($5.58bn) loan in January — the largest loan raised by a climate tech firm in Europe to date, along with €942mn from the European Investment Bank (EIB). Overall, the company has received around €15bn ($16bn) of investments to date — in debt and equity — since its founding in 2017 by two former Tesla executives, comfortably making it Europe's best-funded start-up, ahead of fintech firm Klarna at $4.6bn.

However the road ahead is challenging and costly, and additional support will be needed. "Northvolt haven't gone under but are not going to produce any CAM material until 2026 at the earliest, so difficult times, the EU needs to step up and support," a market participant commented.

The scale of growth and support being given to China's battery and electric vehicle (EV) sectors is also compounding the difficulties raising investment for European projects. China accounted for 83pc of global battery production last year, according to the IEA, and subsidy-funded EV manufacturers CATL and BYD have continued to expand capacity this year (see graph). China has subsidised its EV industry to the tune of around $230bn between 2007 and 2023, including $45bn last year, according to a study by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"This scares off the capital from the [European] battery market. It takes a full reassessment of the industry, which takes a long time. Capital is not cheap and rate cuts are only coming in now, so it will be a while," another market participant said.

China's battery dominance continues to hamper Europe

"This narrative is bigger than Northvolt – Asian manufacturers generally and Chinese manufacturers specifically are in the lead, very clearly", said Jeffrey Chamberlain, chief executive of US-based venture fund Volta Energy Technologies.

"The idea that a start-up can catch up and manufacture cells, of equal or better quality at volume, might have been viable 10-15 years ago, but it is increasingly becoming incredibly challenging," Chamberlain said, arguing that western firms at all stages of the supply chain should sign joint ventures with China instead of engaging in direct competition, offering access to their markets with local manufacturing as well as "innovation for next-generation products".

Despite recent setbacks, Northvolt has not revised its goal of building four large factories before the end of the decade in Sweden, Germany and Canada – remaining committed to a scale of ambition that is drawing concern from some industry participants.

"The only way for success now is through strategic alliances, just look at InoBat and Gotion," said Ben Kilbey, former director at Britishvolt. "[It] feels like recent history repeating [itself]. Britishvolt was advised that it could make a battery factory in two global locations (UK and Canada) before it had made a single cell […] Now Northvolt is in a pickle and having to scale back its global, vertical integration, ambitions. And it's had around €15bn thrown at it," Kilbey added.

Chinese companies have outlined lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity for next year that far exceeds expected demand (see graph), which may further weigh on prices for component materials, squeezing the margins of any manufacturers of these materials outside China such as Northvolt.

Global EV battery installations, by supplier GWh

Announced lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity and demand in 2025 GWh

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22/11/24

Cop: Drafts point to trade-off on finance, fossil fuels

Cop: Drafts point to trade-off on finance, fossil fuels

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — The new draft on the climate finance goal from the UN Cop 29 climate summit presidency has developed nations contributing $250bn/yr by 2035, while language on fossil fuels has been dropped, indicating work towards a compromise on these two central issues. There is no mention of fossil fuels in either the new draft text on the global stocktake — which follows up the outcome of Cop 28 last year, including "transitioning away" from fossil fuels — or in the new draft for the climate finance goal. Developed countries wanted a reference to moving away from fossil fuels included, indicating that not having one would be a red line. The new draft text on the climate finance goal would mark a substantial compromise for developing countries, with non-profit WRI noting that this is "the bridging text". Parties are negotiating the next iteration of the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing nations over 2020-25 — known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). The new draft sets out a figure of $250bn/yr by 2035, "from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". It also notes that developed countries will "take the lead". It sets out that the finance could come from multilateral development banks (MDBs) too. "It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior, smaller goal... $250bn will require even more ambition and extraordinary reach," a US official said. "This goal will need to be supported by ambitious bilateral action, MDB contributions and efforts to better mobilise private finance, among other critical factors," the official added. India had indicated earlier this week that the country was seeking around $600bn/yr for a public finance layer from developed countries. Developing countries had been asking for $1.3 trillion/yr in climate finance from developed countries, a sum which the new text instead calls for "all actors" to work toward. The draft text acknowledges the need to "enable the scaling up of financing… from all public and private sources" to that figure. On the contributor base — which developed countries have long pushed to expand — the text indicates that climate finance contributions from developing countries could supplement the finance goal. It is unclear how this language will land with developing nations. China yesterday reiterated that "the voluntary support" of the global south is not part of the goal. The global stocktake draft largely focuses on the initiatives set out by the Cop 29 presidency, on enhancing power grids and energy storage, though it does stress the "urgent need for accelerated implementation of domestic mitigation measures". It dropped a previous option, opposed by Saudi Arabia, that mentioned actions aimed at "transitioning away from fossil fuels". Mitigation, or cutting emissions, and climate finance have been the overriding issues at Cop 29. Developing countries have long said they cannot decarbonise or implement an energy transition without adequate finance. Developed countries are calling for substantially stronger global action on emissions reduction. By Georgia Gratton and Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US alleges Nippon dumped HRC at higher rates


21/11/24
21/11/24

US alleges Nippon dumped HRC at higher rates

Houston, 21 November (Argus) — The US government alleged that Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel dumped hot-rolled (HR) flat steel products at higher rates than previously determined. The US Department of Commerce's International Trade Administration (ITA) determined that during the period from October 2022 through September 2023, Nippon sold HR steel flat products with a weighted-average dumping margin of 29.03pc, up from the 1.39pc dumping margin the ITA determined for the prior period of October 2021 through September 2022. Tokyo Steel Manufacturing, which was also investigated, was determined to have not sold HR flat steel below market value, unchanged from a prior review. US imports during the period from October 2022 through September 2023 of the investigated items from Japan were 202,000 metric tonnes (t), down from the 293,600t imported in the same period the prior year, according to customs data. The original investigation into imports of Japanese flat-steel products was concluded in 2016. The ITA is now reviewing the time period of October 2023 through September 2024 and expects to issue the final results of these reviews no later than 31 October 2025. The US imported 235,700t of the investigated products from Japan during that time, customs data showed. By Rye Druzchetta Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey scrap deals


21/11/24
21/11/24

Recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey scrap deals

London, 21 November (Argus) — A summary of the most recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey ferrous scrap deals seen by Argus. Ferrous scrap short-sea trades (average composition price, cif Marmara) Date Volume, t Price, $ Shipment Buyer Seller Composition Index relevant 19-Nov 5,000 345 November Izmir Greece HMS 1/2 80:20, shred Y 19-Nov 2,000 342 November Izmir Malta HMS 1/2 80:20, shred Y 12-Nov 3,000 348 November Izmir Romania HMS 1/2 80:20 N 12-Nov 5,000 350 November Izmir Croatia HMS 1/2 80:20 N 12-Nov 5,000 350 November Turkey France HMS 1/2 80:20 Y 12-Nov 10,000 351 November Marmara France HMS 1/2 80:20 Y Ferrous scrap deep-sea trades (average composition price, cfr Turkey) Date Volume, t Price, $ Shipment Buyer Seller Composition Index relevant 20-Nov 40,000 345 (80:20) December Marmara Scandinavia HMS 1/2 80:20, shred, bonus Y 20-Nov 20,000 340 (80:20) December Iskenderun UK HMS 1/2 80:20 Y 19-Nov 30,000 344 (75:25) December Izmir Cont. Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, bonus N 19-Nov 40,000 353 (80:20) December Iskenderun USA HMS 1/2 80:20, shred, bonus Y 15-Nov 40,000 354 (80:20) December Iskenderun Cont. Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, shred, bonus Y 15-Nov 40,000 356 (80:20) December Marmara Cont. Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, shred, bonus Y 14-Nov 20,000 350 (80:20) November Iskenderun UK HMS 1/2 80:20 N 13-Nov 40,000 356 (80:20) December Marmara Cont. Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, shred, bonus Y 13-Nov 40,000 353 (80:20) December Marmara Cont. Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, shred, bonus Y Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans


21/11/24
21/11/24

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s crude steel output drops further in October


21/11/24
21/11/24

Japan’s crude steel output drops further in October

Tokyo, 21 November (Argus) — Japan's crude steel production in October fell on the year for an eighth straight month, partly because of lower steel demand from the construction sector. The country produced 6.9mn t of crude steel in October, down by 7.8pc from a year earlier, according to preliminary data released by industry group the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) on 21 November. Crude steel production by basic oxygen furnace (BOF) fell by 6.8pc on the year to 5.1mn t, marking the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year fall. Crude steel output by electric arc furnace (EAF) declined for a third straight month by 10.5pc to 1.8mn t. A double-digit output fall by EAF is partly reflecting the weaker steel demand in the construction sector. The country's steel demand is heavily dependent on the automobile and construction sectors, and steel products for each industry are generally produced using the BOF and EAF methods respectively. Booked orders of ordinary steel for construction use in September fell by 11.3pc on the year to 651,035t, marking the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year decline, according to the separate data released by JISF on 18 November. The country's major steel producer JFE on 6 November revised downward its crude steel output to 22.4mn t for the current fiscal year ending 31 March 2025. This is 600,000t lower than its initial figure announced in August, partly owing to weaker than anticipated steel demand from the construction sector, according to the steel company. Rising material costs and labour shortages are causing delays in major construction projects, JFE said, adding that lower steel demand in the construction industry is "becoming even more obvious.". By Yusuke Maekawa Japanese ferrous output ('000't) Oct '24 Sep '24 Oct '23 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Crude steel production Ordinary steel 5,328 5,098 5,792 4.5 -8.0 Specialty steel 1,597 1,525 1,719 4.7 -7.1 Total crude production 6,925 6,623 7,511 4.6 -7.8 Crude steel production method Basic oxygen furnace 5,101 4,794 5,473 6.4 -6.8 Electric arc furnace 1,824 1,829 2,038 -0.3 -10.5 Pig iron production 5,075 4,802 5,405 5.7 -6.1 Source: Japan Iron and Steel federation *Based on preliminary data Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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