Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan's hot-rolled coil (HRC) exports are likely to exhaust their 141,850t safeguard duty-free allowance under the EU's ‘other countries' quota on 1 October.
Japan exported nearly 250,000t of HRC in June-July to the EU, Global Trade Tracker data show, with an estimated 39,000t pulled-back from customs clearance in July, according to Arguscalculations. Volumes at EU ports from Japan could be more than double the quota volume.
Similarly, Vietnam exported over 80,000t in June-July, where at least 65,000t was left over from the previous quota period, which brings the total to slightly above the quota. There could be more Vietnamese material that had not been presented to customs in July, and early August exports could also arrive in time for October clearance.
These Vietnamese and Japanese coils are all expected to be put forward for clearance on 1 October, as importers look to avoid the risk of potential retroactive anti-dumping duties, which could be collectable as early as 8 December.
Taiwan is also on track to exhaust its quota, with exports to the EU in June-July totalling nearly 150,000t, with a further almost 45,000t estimated to have been pulled back from customs in July. But the pull-back mechanism might still be used for Taiwanese material in October, and not every tonne is likely to be cleared, because Taiwan is not subject to a dumping investigation, so importers could choose to wait until January to clear their material.
Data from Egypt are not available yet, but Argus calculated that almost 27,000t were pulled back in July. Egypt benefits from shorter transit times, so could continue selling to the bloc even in October-November without risk of incurring duty.
Export data further show that over 280,000t was exported from Brazil to the EU in June-August and over 70,000t from China.
The EU has imported record amounts of HRC in the first seven months of this year, despite current safeguard measures. Over 6.2mn t was imported in January-July, around 400,000t more than the same period of last year. In 2021 — currently the record year for EU HRC imports at 9.2mn t — only 5.6mn t was imported over the same period.
European steel producers' association Eurofer is lobbying for further restrictions on imports, after the implementation of the 15pc cap on sellers into the other countries quota, and the start of a dumping investigation against Egypt, Japan, India and Vietnam.
